Intrinsic value of Axcelis Technologies - ACLS

Previous Close

$26.00

  Intrinsic Value

$1.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$26.00

 
Intrinsic value

$1.56

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.59
  57.60
  52.34
  47.61
  43.35
  39.51
  36.06
  32.95
  30.16
  27.64
  25.38
  23.34
  21.51
  19.86
  18.37
  17.03
  15.83
  14.75
  13.77
  12.89
  12.11
  11.39
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
Revenue, $m
  267
  421
  641
  946
  1,356
  1,892
  2,575
  3,423
  4,455
  5,687
  7,130
  8,794
  10,686
  12,807
  15,160
  17,742
  20,551
  23,582
  26,829
  30,289
  33,956
  37,825
  41,893
  46,158
  50,618
  55,272
  60,123
  65,172
  70,424
  75,884
  81,559
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  372
  567
  836
  1,199
  1,673
  2,276
  3,026
  3,939
  5,027
  6,303
  7,774
  9,446
  11,322
  13,402
  15,684
  18,167
  20,846
  23,717
  26,776
  30,017
  33,437
  37,034
  40,804
  44,746
  48,861
  53,149
  57,612
  62,255
  67,082
  72,098
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  250
  386
  582
  851
  1,214
  1,689
  2,292
  3,043
  3,956
  5,044
  6,321
  7,792
  9,465
  11,341
  13,422
  15,704
  18,188
  20,867
  23,739
  26,798
  30,040
  33,461
  37,058
  40,829
  44,771
  48,887
  53,176
  57,639
  62,283
  67,111
  72,127
Operating income, $m
  17
  34
  60
  95
  142
  204
  282
  380
  500
  642
  809
  1,002
  1,221
  1,466
  1,739
  2,038
  2,363
  2,714
  3,090
  3,491
  3,916
  4,364
  4,836
  5,330
  5,846
  6,386
  6,948
  7,533
  8,141
  8,774
  9,431
EBITDA, $m
  21
  41
  69
  109
  162
  232
  321
  431
  566
  727
  916
  1,133
  1,380
  1,657
  1,965
  2,302
  2,670
  3,066
  3,491
  3,943
  4,422
  4,928
  5,460
  6,018
  6,601
  7,210
  7,844
  8,505
  9,192
  9,906
  10,648
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  11
  20
  32
  48
  69
  96
  129
  170
  218
  275
  340
  415
  498
  591
  692
  802
  922
  1,049
  1,185
  1,329
  1,482
  1,642
  1,809
  1,985
  2,168
  2,358
  2,557
  2,763
  2,978
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  29
  49
  75
  110
  156
  214
  285
  371
  473
  591
  727
  880
  1,052
  1,241
  1,447
  1,671
  1,912
  2,169
  2,442
  2,731
  3,035
  3,354
  3,688
  4,037
  4,401
  4,780
  5,175
  5,585
  6,011
  6,454
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  13
  20
  30
  42
  58
  77
  100
  128
  160
  196
  238
  284
  335
  391
  451
  516
  586
  659
  737
  819
  906
  996
  1,090
  1,188
  1,291
  1,397
  1,508
  1,623
  1,742
Net income, $m
  11
  22
  35
  55
  80
  114
  156
  208
  271
  345
  432
  531
  643
  768
  906
  1,057
  1,220
  1,396
  1,583
  1,783
  1,993
  2,215
  2,448
  2,692
  2,947
  3,213
  3,490
  3,777
  4,077
  4,388
  4,711

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  364
  555
  819
  1,173
  1,637
  2,227
  2,961
  3,854
  4,919
  6,168
  7,608
  9,244
  11,079
  13,114
  15,348
  17,778
  20,399
  23,209
  26,202
  29,373
  32,721
  36,240
  39,929
  43,787
  47,813
  52,009
  56,378
  60,921
  65,644
  70,552
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  231
  364
  555
  819
  1,173
  1,637
  2,227
  2,961
  3,854
  4,919
  6,168
  7,608
  9,244
  11,079
  13,114
  15,348
  17,778
  20,399
  23,209
  26,202
  29,373
  32,721
  36,240
  39,929
  43,787
  47,813
  52,009
  56,378
  60,921
  65,644
  70,552
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.156
  1.157
  1.155
  1.155
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
Average production assets, $m
  47
  74
  113
  167
  239
  333
  453
  602
  784
  1,001
  1,255
  1,548
  1,881
  2,254
  2,668
  3,123
  3,617
  4,150
  4,722
  5,331
  5,976
  6,657
  7,373
  8,124
  8,909
  9,728
  10,582
  11,470
  12,395
  13,356
  14,354
Working capital, $m
  193
  192
  293
  432
  620
  865
  1,177
  1,564
  2,036
  2,599
  3,258
  4,019
  4,883
  5,853
  6,928
  8,108
  9,392
  10,777
  12,261
  13,842
  15,518
  17,286
  19,145
  21,094
  23,132
  25,259
  27,476
  29,784
  32,184
  34,679
  37,272
Total debt, $m
  48
  106
  189
  305
  460
  662
  920
  1,241
  1,631
  2,097
  2,642
  3,272
  3,986
  4,789
  5,678
  6,654
  7,716
  8,862
  10,089
  11,397
  12,783
  14,246
  15,784
  17,396
  19,082
  20,841
  22,675
  24,584
  26,569
  28,633
  30,778
Total liabilities, $m
  101
  159
  242
  358
  513
  715
  973
  1,294
  1,684
  2,150
  2,695
  3,325
  4,039
  4,842
  5,731
  6,707
  7,769
  8,915
  10,142
  11,450
  12,836
  14,299
  15,837
  17,449
  19,135
  20,894
  22,728
  24,637
  26,622
  28,686
  30,831
Total equity, $m
  201
  205
  312
  461
  661
  922
  1,254
  1,667
  2,170
  2,770
  3,473
  4,283
  5,204
  6,238
  7,383
  8,641
  10,009
  11,485
  13,067
  14,752
  16,537
  18,422
  20,403
  22,480
  24,652
  26,919
  29,281
  31,741
  34,298
  36,958
  39,721
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  302
  364
  554
  819
  1,174
  1,637
  2,227
  2,961
  3,854
  4,920
  6,168
  7,608
  9,243
  11,080
  13,114
  15,348
  17,778
  20,400
  23,209
  26,202
  29,373
  32,721
  36,240
  39,929
  43,787
  47,813
  52,009
  56,378
  60,920
  65,644
  70,552
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.239
  0.520
  0.610
  0.660
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  22
  35
  55
  80
  114
  156
  208
  271
  345
  432
  531
  643
  768
  906
  1,057
  1,220
  1,396
  1,583
  1,783
  1,993
  2,215
  2,448
  2,692
  2,947
  3,213
  3,490
  3,777
  4,077
  4,388
  4,711
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  6
  10
  14
  20
  28
  38
  51
  66
  85
  106
  131
  159
  191
  226
  265
  307
  352
  400
  452
  506
  564
  625
  688
  755
  824
  897
  972
  1,050
  1,132
  1,216
Funds from operations, $m
  -40
  28
  45
  69
  101
  142
  194
  259
  337
  430
  538
  662
  802
  959
  1,132
  1,321
  1,526
  1,747
  1,983
  2,234
  2,500
  2,780
  3,073
  3,381
  3,702
  4,037
  4,386
  4,749
  5,127
  5,520
  5,928
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  70
  101
  139
  187
  245
  312
  388
  472
  563
  660
  761
  864
  970
  1,075
  1,180
  1,284
  1,385
  1,484
  1,581
  1,676
  1,768
  1,859
  1,949
  2,038
  2,127
  2,217
  2,308
  2,400
  2,495
  2,593
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -42
  -56
  -71
  -87
  -103
  -118
  -129
  -135
  -133
  -122
  -99
  -62
  -11
  57
  141
  243
  362
  499
  653
  824
  1,011
  1,214
  1,432
  1,664
  1,910
  2,169
  2,442
  2,727
  3,024
  3,334
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -51
  -66
  -85
  -106
  -131
  -159
  -191
  -226
  -265
  -307
  -352
  -400
  -452
  -506
  -564
  -625
  -688
  -755
  -824
  -897
  -972
  -1,050
  -1,132
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -27
  -39
  -54
  -72
  -94
  -120
  -149
  -182
  -217
  -254
  -293
  -333
  -373
  -414
  -454
  -494
  -533
  -572
  -609
  -645
  -681
  -716
  -751
  -785
  -819
  -854
  -889
  -924
  -961
  -999
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -31
  -45
  -64
  -86
  -114
  -148
  -187
  -233
  -283
  -339
  -399
  -464
  -532
  -605
  -680
  -759
  -840
  -924
  -1,009
  -1,097
  -1,187
  -1,280
  -1,376
  -1,473
  -1,574
  -1,678
  -1,786
  -1,896
  -2,011
  -2,131
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -74
  -101
  -134
  -173
  -217
  -266
  -317
  -367
  -416
  -461
  -498
  -526
  -544
  -548
  -540
  -516
  -478
  -424
  -356
  -273
  -176
  -66
  56
  191
  336
  491
  656
  831
  1,013
  1,204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  58
  83
  115
  155
  203
  258
  321
  390
  466
  546
  629
  715
  802
  889
  976
  1,062
  1,146
  1,228
  1,308
  1,386
  1,463
  1,538
  1,612
  1,686
  1,760
  1,834
  1,909
  1,985
  2,064
  2,145
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  53
  72
  94
  119
  147
  176
  205
  232
  255
  271
  280
  278
  266
  240
  201
  148
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  111
  155
  209
  274
  350
  434
  526
  622
  721
  817
  909
  993
  1,068
  1,129
  1,177
  1,210
  1,226
  1,228
  1,308
  1,386
  1,463
  1,538
  1,612
  1,686
  1,760
  1,834
  1,909
  1,985
  2,064
  2,145
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  38
  54
  75
  101
  132
  169
  210
  255
  304
  356
  411
  467
  524
  581
  638
  694
  748
  804
  952
  1,113
  1,287
  1,472
  1,669
  1,877
  2,095
  2,325
  2,565
  2,816
  3,077
  3,349
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -75
  -107
  -149
  -200
  -261
  -332
  -413
  -503
  -600
  -703
  -811
  -921
  -1,033
  -1,146
  -1,258
  -1,368
  -1,476
  -1,582
  -1,685
  -1,786
  -1,884
  -1,981
  -2,077
  -2,172
  -2,267
  -2,362
  -2,459
  -2,558
  -2,659
  -2,764
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  -53
  -73
  -98
  -129
  -164
  -204
  -248
  -296
  -346
  -400
  -454
  -509
  -565
  -620
  -674
  -728
  -778
  -733
  -673
  -598
  -510
  -408
  -295
  -171
  -37
  106
  258
  418
  585
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  33
  -48
  -64
  -81
  -100
  -119
  -138
  -155
  -170
  -182
  -190
  -194
  -194
  -190
  -182
  -171
  -158
  -143
  -113
  -85
  -62
  -42
  -27
  -15
  -7
  -1
  2
  4
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.0
  84.0
  78.4
  73.8
  70.1
  67.0
  64.5
  62.4
  60.7
  59.3
  58.2
  57.3
  56.6
  56.1
  55.7
  55.5
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4
  55.4

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. The Company also provides aftermarket lifecycle products and services, including used tools, spare parts, equipment upgrades, maintenance services and customer training. The Company offers a complete line of high energy, high current and medium current implanters for all application requirements. The Company's Purion XE high energy system combines its radio frequency (RF) Linac high energy, spot beam technology with the Purion platform. The Company also offers the Purion M medium current system. The Company's Purion M systems also offer differentiation for specialty applications, such as hot silicon carbide. The Company's Purion H high current system is extendable into ultra-low energy applications to satisfy future process requirements, including leakage current performance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Axcelis Technologies (ACLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 69.8
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -85.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -64
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 23.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Axcelis Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Axcelis Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 57.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Axcelis Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Axcelis Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.4% for Axcelis Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Axcelis Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACLS are equal to 17.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Axcelis Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACLS is equal to 45.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $201 million for Axcelis Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.312 million for Axcelis Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Axcelis Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Financial statements of ACLS
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