Intrinsic value of Acorda Therapeutics - ACOR

Previous Close

$27.85

  Intrinsic Value

$4.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$27.85

 
Intrinsic value

$4.64

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  666
  748
  835
  927
  1,023
  1,124
  1,229
  1,338
  1,453
  1,571
  1,695
  1,823
  1,957
  2,095
  2,239
  2,389
  2,545
  2,707
  2,876
  3,051
  3,234
  3,425
  3,624
  3,831
  4,048
  4,274
  4,511
  4,758
  5,016
  5,286
Variable operating expenses, $m
  679
  754
  833
  917
  1,005
  1,097
  1,192
  1,292
  1,397
  1,505
  1,546
  1,663
  1,785
  1,911
  2,042
  2,179
  2,321
  2,469
  2,623
  2,783
  2,950
  3,124
  3,305
  3,494
  3,692
  3,898
  4,114
  4,339
  4,575
  4,821
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  679
  754
  833
  917
  1,005
  1,097
  1,192
  1,292
  1,397
  1,505
  1,546
  1,663
  1,785
  1,911
  2,042
  2,179
  2,321
  2,469
  2,623
  2,783
  2,950
  3,124
  3,305
  3,494
  3,692
  3,898
  4,114
  4,339
  4,575
  4,821
Operating income, $m
  -13
  -6
  2
  10
  18
  27
  36
  46
  56
  66
  149
  160
  172
  184
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  418
  441
  465
EBITDA, $m
  161
  181
  202
  224
  247
  272
  297
  324
  351
  380
  410
  441
  473
  507
  542
  578
  615
  655
  695
  738
  782
  828
  876
  927
  979
  1,034
  1,091
  1,151
  1,213
  1,278
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  214
  228
  242
  256
  272
  287
  304
Earnings before tax, $m
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
Net income, $m
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,170
  1,315
  1,468
  1,629
  1,798
  1,975
  2,160
  2,352
  2,553
  2,762
  2,979
  3,204
  3,439
  3,682
  3,936
  4,199
  4,472
  4,757
  5,054
  5,362
  5,684
  6,019
  6,369
  6,733
  7,114
  7,512
  7,927
  8,361
  8,815
  9,290
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,170
  1,315
  1,468
  1,629
  1,798
  1,975
  2,160
  2,352
  2,553
  2,762
  2,979
  3,204
  3,439
  3,682
  3,936
  4,199
  4,472
  4,757
  5,054
  5,362
  5,684
  6,019
  6,369
  6,733
  7,114
  7,512
  7,927
  8,361
  8,815
  9,290
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
Average production assets, $m
  1,024
  1,151
  1,285
  1,426
  1,574
  1,729
  1,891
  2,060
  2,236
  2,418
  2,608
  2,806
  3,011
  3,225
  3,446
  3,677
  3,917
  4,166
  4,425
  4,696
  4,977
  5,271
  5,577
  5,896
  6,230
  6,578
  6,942
  7,322
  7,719
  8,135
Working capital, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
Total debt, $m
  423
  518
  618
  724
  835
  951
  1,072
  1,198
  1,329
  1,466
  1,608
  1,756
  1,910
  2,069
  2,235
  2,407
  2,587
  2,773
  2,967
  3,169
  3,380
  3,600
  3,829
  4,068
  4,317
  4,577
  4,849
  5,134
  5,431
  5,742
Total liabilities, $m
  766
  861
  961
  1,067
  1,178
  1,293
  1,415
  1,541
  1,672
  1,809
  1,951
  2,099
  2,252
  2,412
  2,578
  2,750
  2,929
  3,116
  3,310
  3,512
  3,723
  3,943
  4,171
  4,410
  4,660
  4,920
  5,192
  5,477
  5,774
  6,085
Total equity, $m
  404
  454
  506
  562
  620
  681
  745
  812
  881
  953
  1,028
  1,105
  1,186
  1,270
  1,358
  1,449
  1,543
  1,641
  1,744
  1,850
  1,961
  2,077
  2,197
  2,323
  2,454
  2,592
  2,735
  2,885
  3,041
  3,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,170
  1,315
  1,467
  1,629
  1,798
  1,974
  2,160
  2,353
  2,553
  2,762
  2,979
  3,204
  3,438
  3,682
  3,936
  4,199
  4,472
  4,757
  5,054
  5,362
  5,684
  6,020
  6,368
  6,733
  7,114
  7,512
  7,927
  8,362
  8,815
  9,290
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.140
  1.220
  1.290
  1.350
  1.400
  1.440
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  187
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  295
  314
  261
  281
  301
  322
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  527
  558
  590
  623
  658
  694
  732
  772
  814
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  157
  173
  189
  207
  225
  244
  264
  284
  306
  310
  332
  355
  379
  404
  430
  457
  485
  514
  544
  576
  609
  643
  679
  717
  756
  797
  839
  884
  931
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  141
  156
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  262
  282
  304
  308
  330
  353
  377
  401
  427
  454
  482
  511
  541
  573
  606
  640
  676
  713
  752
  793
  835
  880
  926
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -102
  -115
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -173
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -242
  -261
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -345
  -368
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -470
  -498
  -527
  -558
  -590
  -623
  -658
  -694
  -732
  -772
New CAPEX, $m
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -230
  -240
  -249
  -260
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -210
  -229
  -249
  -270
  -291
  -312
  -335
  -358
  -382
  -407
  -432
  -459
  -486
  -514
  -544
  -575
  -608
  -641
  -677
  -713
  -752
  -792
  -833
  -877
  -923
  -971
  -1,022
  -1,074
  -1,130
  -1,188
Free cash flow, $m
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -124
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  89
  95
  100
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  78
  80
  80
  80
  81
  81
  81
  80
  80
  80
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  167
  175
  180
  186
  192
  197
  202
  206
  211
  217
  168
  175
  181
  188
  194
  201
  208
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  313
  327
  341
  357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  99
  101
  103
  104
  106
  107
  109
  111
  112
  114
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -80
  -80
  -80
  -81
  -81
  -81
  -80
  -80
  -80
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  163
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  239
  253
  266
  281
Cash available for distribution, $m
  183
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  176
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.8
  85.0
  79.3
  74.5
  70.4
  66.9
  63.8
  61.1
  58.8
  56.7
  56.1
  55.5
  54.9
  54.4
  53.9
  53.5
  53.0
  52.6
  52.2
  51.8
  51.5
  51.1
  50.8
  50.4
  50.1
  49.8
  49.5
  49.1
  48.8
  48.5

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing therapies that restore function and improve the lives of people with neurological disorders. As of December 31, 2016, the Company marketed three United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved therapies, including Ampyra (dalfampridine) Extended Release Tablets, 10 milligram (mg), a treatment to improve walking in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The Company also markets Zanaflex Capsules and tablets, FDA-approved as short-acting drugs for the management of spasticity, and Qutenza, an FDA-approved dermal patch for the management of neuropathic pain associated with post-herpetic neuralgia, also known as post-shingles pain. The Company has a pipeline of neurological therapies addressing a range of disorders, including Parkinson's disease, migraine and MS. The Company's product candidate, CVT-301, is a self-administered inhaled formulation of levodopa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -36.3
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 159
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 48.8%
Total Debt to Equity 48.9%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Equity -5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.1%
EBITDA Margin -2.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin -6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $588 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acorda Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Acorda Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acorda Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acorda Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Acorda Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acorda Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACOR stock is equal to 5.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACOR are equal to 153.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acorda Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACOR is equal to 1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $520 million for Acorda Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46 million for Acorda Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acorda Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Acorda Announces Management Transitions   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Acorda: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Collaborations Help Alkermes Flip to Profitability   [Jul-27-18 11:53AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Acorda: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 18th   [Apr-18-18 06:27AM  Zacks]
▶ 7 Stocks for the Biotech Takeover Wave   [Apr-02-18 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Blowback against Shkreli was healthy, says pharma expert   [Mar-09-18 03:11PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Acorda to Present at Cowen Health Care Conference   [Mar-06-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Acorda reports 4Q loss   [10:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Acorda Fourth Quarter/Year End 2017 Update   [Feb-02-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ This Biotech Stock Rocketed 15% On Rumors Biogen Could Buy It   [Jan-19-18 04:53PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Acorda Therapeutics Exploring a Potential Sale   [Jan-05-18 11:01PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Acorda Therapeutics Exploring a Potential Sale   [04:10PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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