Intrinsic value of Ares Commercial Real Estate - ACRE

Previous Close

$12.59

  Intrinsic Value

$40.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+222%

Previous close

$12.59

 
Intrinsic value

$40.50

 
Up/down potential

+222%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ACRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.65
  38.10
  34.79
  31.81
  29.13
  26.72
  24.55
  22.59
  20.83
  19.25
  17.82
  16.54
  15.39
  14.35
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
Revenue, $m
  82
  113
  153
  201
  260
  329
  410
  503
  607
  724
  853
  995
  1,148
  1,312
  1,488
  1,675
  1,873
  2,082
  2,301
  2,530
  2,770
  3,020
  3,280
  3,551
  3,833
  4,126
  4,430
  4,746
  5,075
  5,416
  5,772
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  66
  89
  118
  152
  193
  240
  294
  355
  424
  499
  582
  671
  768
  871
  980
  1,096
  1,218
  1,346
  1,480
  1,620
  1,767
  1,919
  2,077
  2,242
  2,413
  2,591
  2,776
  2,969
  3,169
  3,376
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  51
  66
  89
  118
  152
  193
  240
  294
  355
  424
  499
  582
  671
  768
  871
  980
  1,096
  1,218
  1,346
  1,480
  1,620
  1,767
  1,919
  2,077
  2,242
  2,413
  2,591
  2,776
  2,969
  3,169
  3,376
Operating income, $m
  31
  47
  63
  83
  108
  137
  170
  209
  252
  301
  354
  413
  476
  545
  618
  695
  777
  864
  955
  1,050
  1,149
  1,253
  1,361
  1,474
  1,591
  1,712
  1,838
  1,970
  2,106
  2,248
  2,395
EBITDA, $m
  31
  47
  63
  83
  108
  137
  170
  209
  252
  301
  354
  413
  476
  545
  618
  695
  777
  864
  955
  1,050
  1,149
  1,253
  1,361
  1,474
  1,591
  1,712
  1,838
  1,970
  2,106
  2,248
  2,395
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  33
  45
  61
  81
  105
  133
  166
  203
  246
  294
  346
  403
  466
  533
  604
  680
  761
  845
  934
  1,028
  1,125
  1,227
  1,332
  1,442
  1,557
  1,676
  1,800
  1,928
  2,062
  2,201
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
Tax expense, $m
  1
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Net income, $m
  40
  11
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,374
  1,826
  2,462
  3,245
  4,190
  5,310
  6,613
  8,107
  9,796
  11,682
  13,764
  16,040
  18,509
  21,164
  24,003
  27,021
  30,213
  33,577
  37,110
  40,809
  44,674
  48,705
  52,905
  57,274
  61,818
  66,541
  71,450
  76,550
  81,851
  87,361
  93,092
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,327
  1,826
  2,462
  3,245
  4,190
  5,310
  6,613
  8,107
  9,796
  11,682
  13,764
  16,040
  18,509
  21,164
  24,003
  27,021
  30,213
  33,577
  37,110
  40,809
  44,674
  48,705
  52,905
  57,274
  61,818
  66,541
  71,450
  76,550
  81,851
  87,361
  93,092
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -65
  -87
  -115
  -149
  -189
  -235
  -288
  -348
  -415
  -489
  -570
  -658
  -752
  -853
  -960
  -1,073
  -1,193
  -1,318
  -1,450
  -1,587
  -1,730
  -1,879
  -2,035
  -2,196
  -2,364
  -2,538
  -2,720
  -2,908
  -3,104
  -3,307
Total debt, $m
  931
  1,291
  1,749
  2,312
  2,993
  3,799
  4,738
  5,813
  7,029
  8,387
  9,886
  11,525
  13,302
  15,214
  17,258
  19,431
  21,730
  24,152
  26,695
  29,358
  32,141
  35,044
  38,067
  41,214
  44,485
  47,886
  51,420
  55,092
  58,909
  62,876
  67,002
Total liabilities, $m
  955
  1,315
  1,773
  2,336
  3,017
  3,823
  4,762
  5,837
  7,053
  8,411
  9,910
  11,549
  13,326
  15,238
  17,282
  19,455
  21,754
  24,176
  26,719
  29,382
  32,165
  35,068
  38,091
  41,238
  44,509
  47,910
  51,444
  55,116
  58,933
  62,900
  67,026
Total equity, $m
  419
  511
  689
  909
  1,173
  1,487
  1,852
  2,270
  2,743
  3,271
  3,854
  4,491
  5,182
  5,926
  6,721
  7,566
  8,460
  9,402
  10,391
  11,426
  12,509
  13,638
  14,813
  16,037
  17,309
  18,632
  20,006
  21,434
  22,918
  24,461
  26,066
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,374
  1,826
  2,462
  3,245
  4,190
  5,310
  6,614
  8,107
  9,796
  11,682
  13,764
  16,040
  18,508
  21,164
  24,003
  27,021
  30,214
  33,578
  37,110
  40,808
  44,674
  48,706
  52,904
  57,275
  61,818
  66,542
  71,450
  76,550
  81,851
  87,361
  93,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.222
  2.520
  2.540
  2.550
  2.550
  2.560
  2.560
  2.560
  2.560
  2.560
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  11
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  11
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
Change in working capital, $m
  43
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  28
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  118
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  184
  195
  205
  216
  226
  237
  248
  258
  270
  281
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  28
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  118
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  184
  195
  205
  216
  226
  237
  248
  258
  270
  281
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  360
  458
  564
  681
  806
  938
  1,076
  1,216
  1,358
  1,499
  1,639
  1,777
  1,912
  2,044
  2,173
  2,299
  2,422
  2,543
  2,663
  2,783
  2,903
  3,023
  3,146
  3,272
  3,401
  3,534
  3,672
  3,817
  3,968
  4,126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  129
  165
  203
  245
  290
  338
  387
  437
  488
  539
  589
  638
  686
  733
  778
  823
  866
  909
  951
  993
  1,035
  1,077
  1,120
  1,164
  1,209
  1,256
  1,304
  1,354
  1,407
  1,462
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  102
  489
  623
  767
  926
  1,096
  1,276
  1,463
  1,653
  1,846
  2,038
  2,228
  2,415
  2,598
  2,777
  2,951
  3,122
  3,288
  3,452
  3,614
  3,776
  3,938
  4,100
  4,266
  4,436
  4,610
  4,790
  4,976
  5,171
  5,375
  5,588
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  517
  658
  811
  979
  1,159
  1,350
  1,547
  1,749
  1,953
  2,156
  2,358
  2,556
  2,750
  2,940
  3,125
  3,306
  3,483
  3,658
  3,831
  4,002
  4,175
  4,348
  4,525
  4,705
  4,891
  5,083
  5,282
  5,489
  5,706
  5,934
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -139
  -178
  -219
  -265
  -313
  -365
  -418
  -473
  -528
  -583
  -637
  -691
  -744
  -795
  -845
  -894
  -942
  -989
  -1,036
  -1,082
  -1,129
  -1,176
  -1,224
  -1,272
  -1,322
  -1,374
  -1,428
  -1,484
  -1,543
  -1,604
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  425
  480
  592
  714
  846
  985
  1,129
  1,276
  1,425
  1,573
  1,720
  1,865
  2,006
  2,145
  2,280
  2,412
  2,541
  2,669
  2,795
  2,920
  3,046
  3,173
  3,301
  3,433
  3,568
  3,708
  3,854
  4,005
  4,163
  4,329
Discount rate, %
 
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.31
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.18
  16.99
  17.84
  18.73
  19.67
  20.65
  21.68
  22.77
  23.91
  25.10
  26.36
  27.68
  29.06
  30.51
  32.04
  33.64
  35.32
  37.09
  38.94
  40.89
  42.93
  45.08
  47.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  381
  382
  414
  433
  440
  433
  414
  384
  347
  305
  260
  216
  175
  137
  105
  78
  56
  40
  27
  18
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  71.5
  52.2
  39.0
  29.7
  23.1
  18.3
  14.8
  12.1
  10.0
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.4
  4.7
  4.1
  3.7
  3.3
  3.0
  2.7
  2.4
  2.2
  2.0
  1.9
  1.7
  1.6
  1.5
  1.4
  1.3
  1.2
  1.1

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation is a specialty finance company. The Company is primarily engaged in originating and investing in commercial real estate (CRE) loans and related investments. The Company operates through principal lending segment. Its target investments include senior mortgage loans, subordinated debt, preferred equity, mezzanine loans and other CRE investment opportunities, including commercial mortgage-backed securities. These investments are generally held for investment and are secured, directly or indirectly, by office, multifamily, retail, industrial, lodging, senior-living, self-storage and other commercial real estate properties, or by ownership interests therein. Through the Company's manager, Ares Commercial Real Estate Management LLC, it has investment professionals located across the United States and Europe who directly source loan opportunities for the Company with owners, operators and sponsors of CRE properties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 222.2%
Total Debt to Equity 222.2%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.3%
EBITDA Margin 74.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.1%
Operating Margin 37.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Net Profit Margin 48.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Effective Tax Rate 3.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 72.5%

ACRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $82 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ares Commercial Real Estate. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ares Commercial Real Estate. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.5%, whose default value for ACRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ares Commercial Real Estate, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ares Commercial Real Estate.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ares Commercial Real Estate.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ares Commercial Real Estate. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACRE are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ares Commercial Real Estate operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACRE is equal to -57.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $419 million for Ares Commercial Real Estate - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.922 million for Ares Commercial Real Estate is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ares Commercial Real Estate at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ares Management Announces New Senior Leadership Changes   [Dec-18-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ares Commercial Real Estate posts 3Q profit   [07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ares Commercial Real Estate posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 02:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ares Commercial Real Estates Dividend Curve   [Jul-26-17 12:09PM  Market Realist]
▶ [$$] Two Mortgage REITs Set for Earnings Upside   [Jun-13-17 11:52AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Ares Commercial Real Estate posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ares Commercial Real Estate posts 4Q profit   [06:48AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of ACRE
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