Intrinsic value of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals - ACRX

Previous Close

$2.84

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.84

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
Total operating expenses, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  66
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  79
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  93
Operating income, $m
  -38
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -67
EBITDA, $m
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -41
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -41
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.381
  0.364
  0.409
  0.391
  0.375
  0.375
  0.400
  0.385
  0.370
  0.393
  0.379
  0.400
  0.375
  0.394
  0.382
  0.389
  0.368
  0.385
  0.390
  0.372
  0.378
  0.383
  0.388
  0.385
  0.389
  0.386
  0.390
  0.387
  0.385
  0.382
Average production assets, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Total debt, $m
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -58
  -57
  -56
  -54
  -53
  -51
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -27
  -24
Total liabilities, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
Total equity, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  68
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -31.140
  -30.230
  -29.250
  -28.210
  -27.110
  -25.980
  -24.830
  -23.660
  -22.500
  -21.330
  -20.180
  -19.040
  -17.920
  -16.830
  -15.760
  -14.720
  -13.710
  -12.730
  -11.790
  -10.870
  -9.990
  -9.150
  -8.330
  -7.550
  -6.800
  -6.070
  -5.380
  -4.720
  -4.090
  -3.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -41
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -39
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -39
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -56
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  -41
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -85
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  127
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  63
  64
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -127
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -79
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -75
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.5
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain. The Company operates through the segment, which includes development and commercialization of product candidates for the treatment of pain. Its lead product candidates include ARX-04, Zalviso, which utilize sublingual sufentanil, delivered through a non-invasive route of administration, and ARX-03. ARX-04 is meant for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain to be administered by a healthcare professional to a patient in medically supervised settings. Zalviso is meant for the management of moderate-to-severe acute pain in hospitalized adult patients. ARX-03 provides mild sedation, anxiety reduction and pain relief for patients undergoing painful procedures in a physician's office. It also includes ARX-02, which is meant for the treatment of patients who suffer from breakthrough pain (BTP) due to cancer.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AcelRx Pharmaceuticals (ACRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 7.6
Price to Book -25.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 300%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -1820%
Total Debt to Equity -1900%
Interest Coverage -21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -36%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.4%
Return On Total Capital -41.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Return On Equity -307.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -140.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
EBITDA Margin -229.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -311.6%
Operating Margin -188.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -351.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -252.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -346.4%
Net Profit Margin -252.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -346.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7.995 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AcelRx Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for ACRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $40 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.3% for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACRX are equal to 136%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AcelRx Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACRX is equal to -39.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-36.509 million for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.6 million for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Health Care Digest: Health's push onto the ballot, an exec's cancer story and more   [Nov-05-18 05:38PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Noting Military Potential, FDA Approves Powerful Painkiller Dsuvia   [Nov-02-18 07:19PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AcelRx Pharmaceuticals: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ AcelRx announces FDA approval of DSUVIA   [01:56PM  PR Newswire]
▶ On eve of FDA decision, Peninsula company battles backlash to pain-killing opioids   [Oct-24-18 02:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 10 Hottest Stocks From October 16, 2018   [Oct-16-18 04:33PM  Benzinga]
▶ Stock Market News Daily Roundup October 15   [12:37PM  Market Exclusive]
▶ AcelRx Pharmaceuticals: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why this Peninsula drug company still is betting on pain for a gain   [Jul-02-18 09:04AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ AcelRx receives European Commission approval for DZUVEO   [Jun-27-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 15th   [Jun-15-18 11:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 5th   [Jun-05-18 07:54AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 4th   [Jun-04-18 07:43AM  Zacks]
▶ AcelRx announces FDA acceptance of NDA for DSUVIA   [May-24-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 18th   [May-18-18 10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ AcelRx Pharmaceuticals: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Best NasdaqGM Growth Companies   [May-06-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]

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