Intrinsic value of Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies - ACTG

Previous Close

$3.15

  Intrinsic Value

$1.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$3.15

 
Intrinsic value

$1.17

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACTG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
Variable operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
Total operating expenses, $m
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  107
  109
  113
  116
  121
  118
  123
  128
  132
  138
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  255
Operating income, $m
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  186
  191
  196
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  237
  247
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  571
  599
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  186
  191
  196
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  237
  247
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  571
  599
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.360
  0.356
  0.357
  0.358
  0.357
  0.360
  0.357
  0.358
  0.359
  0.356
  0.359
  0.356
  0.356
  0.359
  0.358
  0.359
  0.359
  0.358
  0.358
  0.359
  0.358
  0.359
  0.356
  0.358
  0.359
  0.359
  0.358
  0.358
  0.359
  0.359
Average production assets, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
Total liabilities, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Total equity, $m
  171
  175
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  211
  218
  227
  236
  245
  256
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  456
  478
  501
  526
  551
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  186
  190
  196
  201
  208
  214
  221
  229
  237
  247
  257
  266
  278
  289
  302
  315
  329
  345
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  572
  599
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  106
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  101
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  78.7
  62.1
  49.0
  38.5
  30.3
  23.8
  18.7
  14.7
  11.6
  9.2
  7.5
  6.1
  5.0
  4.1
  3.3
  2.7
  2.3
  1.9
  1.5
  1.3
  1.0
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2

Acacia Research Corporation, through its subsidiaries, invests in, licenses and enforces patented technologies. The Company's operating subsidiaries partner with inventors and patent owners, applying their legal and technology expertise to patent assets to unlock the financial value in their patented inventions. The Company's operating subsidiaries assist patent owners with the prosecution and development of their patent portfolios, the protection of their patented inventions from unauthorized use, the generation of licensing revenue from users of their patented technologies and, where necessary, with the enforcement against unauthorized users of their patented technologies through the filing of patent infringement litigation. The Company's operating subsidiaries own or control the rights to multiple patent portfolios, which include the United States patents and certain foreign counterparts, covering technologies used in a range of industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies (ACTG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -95%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -47.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.6%
Return On Total Capital -18.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.9%
Return On Equity -18.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.8%
EBITDA Margin -2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.6%
Operating Margin -24.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -64.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -64.9%
Net Profit Margin -35.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.2%
Effective Tax Rate -48.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACTG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACTG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $65.402 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACTG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACTG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACTG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $20 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACTG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACTG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACTG are equal to 57%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACTG is equal to -9.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $294.301 million for Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.495 million for Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acacia Research - Acacia Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Acacia Research: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-25-18 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Acacia Research to Release Third Quarter Financial Results   [Oct-05-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Acacia Research: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Acacia Research to Release Second Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-01-18 03:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acacia Research Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Jul-31-18 06:11PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acacia Research: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Acacia Research Reports First Quarter Financial Results   [May-01-18 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acacia Research to Release First Quarter Financial Results   [Apr-18-18 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Restaurant industry startup Miso Robotics gets $10 million in financing   [Feb-16-18 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Acacia Research And Other Top Cheap Stocks   [Dec-30-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ November Undervalued Opportunities Socket Mobile And More   [Nov-28-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Acacia Research posts 3Q profit   [Oct-27-17 05:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Acacia Research Reports Third Quarter Financial Results   [Oct-26-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acacia Research Stock Breaks Out as Rally Continues   [Sep-22-17 10:27AM  Investopedia]
▶ Why Acacia Research Corp.'s Shares Popped 22% Today   [Sep-19-17 04:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Acacia Research reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 09:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Robots are coming to a burger joint near you   [Jul-04-17 09:01AM  CNBC]
▶ Acacia Research as an Investment Opportunity   [Jun-09-17 03:11PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 1st   [Jun-01-17 10:47AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 30th   [May-30-17 10:27AM  Zacks]
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