Intrinsic value of Agree Realty - ADC

Previous Close

$49.28

  Intrinsic Value

$5.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$49.28

 
Intrinsic value

$5.86

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ADC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.43
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  92
  115
  141
  171
  205
  242
  283
  327
  375
  426
  480
  537
  598
  662
  728
  798
  871
  947
  1,026
  1,108
  1,193
  1,282
  1,374
  1,470
  1,569
  1,673
  1,780
  1,892
  2,009
  2,131
  2,257
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  49
  60
  73
  87
  103
  120
  139
  159
  180
  204
  228
  254
  281
  309
  338
  369
  401
  435
  470
  506
  543
  583
  623
  665
  709
  755
  802
  852
  903
  957
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  40
  49
  60
  73
  87
  103
  120
  139
  159
  180
  204
  228
  254
  281
  309
  338
  369
  401
  435
  470
  506
  543
  583
  623
  665
  709
  755
  802
  852
  903
  957
Operating income, $m
  51
  66
  81
  99
  118
  139
  163
  188
  216
  245
  276
  310
  344
  381
  420
  460
  502
  545
  591
  638
  687
  738
  791
  847
  904
  964
  1,026
  1,090
  1,157
  1,227
  1,300
EBITDA, $m
  74
  105
  129
  156
  187
  221
  258
  298
  342
  388
  438
  490
  546
  604
  665
  728
  795
  864
  936
  1,011
  1,088
  1,169
  1,253
  1,341
  1,432
  1,526
  1,624
  1,726
  1,833
  1,944
  2,059
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  16
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  61
  71
  81
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  389
  412
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  51
  61
  73
  87
  102
  118
  136
  154
  175
  196
  218
  242
  267
  293
  320
  349
  378
  409
  441
  474
  508
  544
  582
  620
  660
  702
  746
  791
  839
  888
Tax expense, $m
  0
  14
  17
  20
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  201
  214
  226
  240
Net income, $m
  45
  37
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  113
  127
  143
  159
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  276
  299
  322
  346
  371
  397
  425
  453
  482
  513
  545
  578
  612
  648

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,142
  1,386
  1,704
  2,066
  2,470
  2,918
  3,408
  3,941
  4,515
  5,129
  5,783
  6,475
  7,205
  7,973
  8,777
  9,617
  10,494
  11,408
  12,358
  13,347
  14,375
  15,444
  16,554
  17,707
  18,907
  20,154
  21,451
  22,800
  24,206
  25,669
  27,195
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,109
  1,386
  1,704
  2,066
  2,470
  2,918
  3,408
  3,941
  4,515
  5,129
  5,783
  6,475
  7,205
  7,973
  8,777
  9,617
  10,494
  11,408
  12,358
  13,347
  14,375
  15,444
  16,554
  17,707
  18,907
  20,154
  21,451
  22,800
  24,206
  25,669
  27,195
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
Average production assets, $m
  928
  1,160
  1,427
  1,729
  2,068
  2,443
  2,853
  3,299
  3,780
  4,294
  4,842
  5,421
  6,033
  6,675
  7,348
  8,052
  8,786
  9,551
  10,347
  11,175
  12,035
  12,930
  13,859
  14,825
  15,829
  16,873
  17,959
  19,089
  20,265
  21,491
  22,768
Working capital, $m
  0
  -41
  -51
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -102
  -117
  -135
  -153
  -172
  -193
  -215
  -238
  -262
  -287
  -313
  -340
  -368
  -398
  -428
  -460
  -493
  -528
  -563
  -601
  -639
  -679
  -721
  -765
  -810
Total debt, $m
  401
  516
  648
  797
  965
  1,150
  1,353
  1,573
  1,811
  2,065
  2,336
  2,623
  2,925
  3,243
  3,576
  3,923
  4,286
  4,665
  5,058
  5,468
  5,893
  6,336
  6,795
  7,273
  7,769
  8,286
  8,823
  9,381
  9,963
  10,569
  11,201
Total liabilities, $m
  459
  574
  706
  855
  1,023
  1,208
  1,411
  1,631
  1,869
  2,123
  2,394
  2,681
  2,983
  3,301
  3,634
  3,981
  4,344
  4,723
  5,116
  5,526
  5,951
  6,394
  6,853
  7,331
  7,827
  8,344
  8,881
  9,439
  10,021
  10,627
  11,259
Total equity, $m
  683
  812
  999
  1,210
  1,447
  1,710
  1,997
  2,309
  2,646
  3,006
  3,389
  3,795
  4,222
  4,672
  5,143
  5,636
  6,149
  6,685
  7,242
  7,822
  8,424
  9,050
  9,700
  10,377
  11,079
  11,810
  12,570
  13,361
  14,184
  15,042
  15,936
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,142
  1,386
  1,705
  2,065
  2,470
  2,918
  3,408
  3,940
  4,515
  5,129
  5,783
  6,476
  7,205
  7,973
  8,777
  9,617
  10,493
  11,408
  12,358
  13,348
  14,375
  15,444
  16,553
  17,708
  18,906
  20,154
  21,451
  22,800
  24,205
  25,669
  27,195
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.587
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  37
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  113
  127
  143
  159
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  276
  299
  322
  346
  371
  397
  425
  453
  482
  513
  545
  578
  612
  648
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  39
  48
  58
  69
  81
  95
  110
  126
  143
  161
  181
  201
  222
  245
  268
  293
  318
  345
  372
  401
  431
  462
  494
  528
  562
  599
  636
  676
  716
  759
Funds from operations, $m
  61
  76
  92
  111
  132
  156
  181
  209
  239
  271
  304
  340
  378
  417
  459
  502
  547
  594
  643
  694
  747
  802
  859
  919
  980
  1,045
  1,111
  1,181
  1,253
  1,329
  1,407
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  84
  102
  122
  144
  169
  196
  225
  256
  289
  324
  361
  400
  440
  483
  527
  574
  622
  672
  724
  778
  834
  892
  953
  1,016
  1,082
  1,150
  1,221
  1,295
  1,372
  1,453
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -39
  -48
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -95
  -110
  -126
  -143
  -161
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -245
  -268
  -293
  -318
  -345
  -372
  -401
  -431
  -462
  -494
  -528
  -562
  -599
  -636
  -676
  -716
New CAPEX, $m
  -326
  -232
  -267
  -302
  -339
  -375
  -411
  -446
  -481
  -514
  -547
  -580
  -611
  -642
  -673
  -704
  -734
  -765
  -796
  -828
  -861
  -894
  -929
  -966
  -1,004
  -1,044
  -1,086
  -1,130
  -1,176
  -1,225
  -1,277
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -298
  -263
  -306
  -350
  -397
  -444
  -492
  -541
  -591
  -640
  -690
  -741
  -792
  -843
  -895
  -949
  -1,002
  -1,058
  -1,114
  -1,173
  -1,233
  -1,295
  -1,360
  -1,428
  -1,498
  -1,572
  -1,648
  -1,729
  -1,812
  -1,901
  -1,993
Free cash flow, $m
  -236
  -179
  -204
  -228
  -252
  -275
  -296
  -316
  -335
  -351
  -367
  -380
  -392
  -403
  -413
  -421
  -429
  -436
  -443
  -449
  -455
  -462
  -468
  -475
  -482
  -490
  -498
  -508
  -518
  -529
  -541
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  115
  132
  150
  167
  185
  203
  221
  238
  254
  271
  287
  302
  318
  333
  348
  363
  378
  394
  409
  426
  442
  460
  478
  496
  516
  537
  559
  582
  606
  631
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  227
  125
  142
  158
  173
  188
  201
  213
  224
  233
  240
  246
  251
  255
  257
  259
  259
  259
  259
  258
  256
  255
  253
  252
  250
  249
  247
  246
  246
  245
  246
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  310
  240
  274
  308
  340
  373
  404
  434
  462
  487
  511
  533
  553
  573
  590
  607
  622
  637
  653
  667
  682
  697
  713
  730
  746
  765
  784
  805
  828
  851
  877
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  61
  70
  80
  89
  99
  108
  117
  127
  135
  144
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  336
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -232
  -162
  -187
  -212
  -237
  -262
  -287
  -312
  -336
  -360
  -383
  -406
  -428
  -450
  -471
  -492
  -514
  -535
  -557
  -579
  -602
  -626
  -651
  -676
  -703
  -731
  -760
  -791
  -823
  -858
  -894
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -68
  -116
  -132
  -148
  -164
  -179
  -195
  -210
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -361
  -376
  -390
  -406
  -422
  -438
  -456
  -474
  -493
  -514
  -535
  -558
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -64
  -101
  -106
  -108
  -109
  -107
  -104
  -99
  -93
  -85
  -77
  -69
  -60
  -52
  -44
  -36
  -30
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.6
  84.6
  78.7
  73.7
  69.4
  65.7
  62.5
  59.8
  57.4
  55.3
  53.4
  51.8
  50.4
  49.1
  47.9
  46.9
  46.0
  45.2
  44.4
  43.7
  43.1
  42.5
  42.0
  41.5
  41.1
  40.7
  40.3
  40.0
  39.7
  39.3

Agree Realty Corporation (Agree Realty) is an integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily focused on the ownership, acquisition, development and management of retail properties. The Company operates through Agree Limited Partnership (the Operating Partnership). As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio consisted of 366 properties located in 43 states and totaling approximately seven million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio included 363 net lease properties, which contributed approximately 98.1% of annualized base rent, and three community shopping centers. The Company's business objective is to generate consistent shareholder returns by investing in and actively managing a diversified portfolio of retail properties net leased to industry tenants. Its community shopping centers include Capital Plaza, Frankfort; Central Michigan Commons, Mount Pleasant, and West Frankfort Plaza, West Frankfort.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agree Realty (ADC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 14
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 41.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 29.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 58.7%
Total Debt to Equity 58.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity 7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.2%
EBITDA Margin 90.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.4%
Operating Margin 56.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.4%
Net Profit Margin 48.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 95.6%

ADC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $92 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agree Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agree Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for ADC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agree Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agree Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Agree Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agree Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADC are equal to 1008.7%.

Life of production assets of 40.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agree Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADC is equal to -35.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $683 million for Agree Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.16 million for Agree Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agree Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Agree Realty Announces Record 2017 Investment Activity   [Jan-03-18 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty Declares Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-05-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty reports 3Q results   [Oct-23-17 04:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agree Realty Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-05-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty reports 2Q results   [Jul-24-17 09:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agree Realty Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Agree Realty Announces Pricing Of Common Stock Offering   [Jun-13-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty Announces Common Stock Offering   [Jun-12-17 04:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty Declares Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-22-17 08:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty reports 1Q results   [Apr-24-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agree Realty Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-28-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Agree Realty reports 4Q results   [Feb-23-17 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Atkore International Group Inc (ATKR) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 06:04PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Agree Realty Declares Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-06-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of ADC
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