Intrinsic value of Analog Devices, Inc. - ADI

Previous Close

$112.67

  Intrinsic Value

$33.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$112.67

 
Intrinsic value

$33.01

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 41.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,325
  6,470
  6,637
  6,823
  7,030
  7,257
  7,504
  7,772
  8,060
  8,370
  8,701
  9,054
  9,430
  9,829
  10,253
  10,703
  11,178
  11,681
  12,213
  12,774
  13,366
  13,990
  14,648
  15,342
  16,072
  16,841
  17,651
  18,502
  19,399
  20,341
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,541
  1,574
  1,611
  1,653
  1,700
  1,751
  1,807
  1,867
  1,932
  2,002
  1,961
  2,041
  2,125
  2,215
  2,311
  2,412
  2,519
  2,633
  2,753
  2,879
  3,013
  3,153
  3,302
  3,458
  3,623
  3,796
  3,978
  4,170
  4,372
  4,585
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,931
  2,996
  3,061
  3,129
  3,198
  3,268
  3,340
  3,413
  3,488
  3,565
  3,644
  3,724
  3,806
  3,889
  3,975
  4,063
  4,152
  4,243
  4,337
  4,432
  4,529
  4,629
  4,731
  4,835
  4,941
  5,050
  5,161
  5,275
  5,391
  5,509
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,472
  4,570
  4,672
  4,782
  4,898
  5,019
  5,147
  5,280
  5,420
  5,567
  5,605
  5,765
  5,931
  6,104
  6,286
  6,475
  6,671
  6,876
  7,090
  7,311
  7,542
  7,782
  8,033
  8,293
  8,564
  8,846
  9,139
  9,445
  9,763
  10,094
Operating income, $m
  1,853
  1,901
  1,964
  2,041
  2,133
  2,238
  2,358
  2,491
  2,640
  2,803
  3,096
  3,289
  3,499
  3,724
  3,967
  4,228
  4,507
  4,805
  5,123
  5,463
  5,824
  6,208
  6,616
  7,049
  7,508
  7,995
  8,511
  9,057
  9,635
  10,247
EBITDA, $m
  2,402
  2,460
  2,534
  2,624
  2,730
  2,851
  2,987
  3,139
  3,307
  3,491
  3,692
  3,910
  4,145
  4,398
  4,670
  4,961
  5,273
  5,606
  5,960
  6,338
  6,740
  7,166
  7,620
  8,100
  8,610
  9,149
  9,721
  10,325
  10,965
  11,641
Interest expense (income), $m
  183
  342
  351
  362
  375
  390
  407
  425
  444
  466
  489
  513
  540
  568
  598
  629
  663
  699
  737
  777
  819
  864
  911
  961
  1,013
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
  1,252
  1,320
  1,391
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,511
  1,551
  1,602
  1,666
  1,742
  1,832
  1,933
  2,047
  2,174
  2,314
  2,583
  2,750
  2,931
  3,127
  3,338
  3,565
  3,808
  4,068
  4,347
  4,644
  4,960
  5,297
  5,655
  6,036
  6,440
  6,869
  7,324
  7,806
  8,316
  8,856
Tax expense, $m
  408
  419
  433
  450
  470
  495
  522
  553
  587
  625
  697
  742
  791
  844
  901
  962
  1,028
  1,098
  1,174
  1,254
  1,339
  1,430
  1,527
  1,630
  1,739
  1,855
  1,977
  2,108
  2,245
  2,391
Net income, $m
  1,103
  1,132
  1,169
  1,216
  1,272
  1,337
  1,411
  1,494
  1,587
  1,689
  1,885
  2,007
  2,140
  2,282
  2,437
  2,602
  2,780
  2,970
  3,173
  3,390
  3,621
  3,867
  4,128
  4,406
  4,701
  5,014
  5,346
  5,698
  6,071
  6,465

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  20,806
  21,285
  21,832
  22,446
  23,126
  23,873
  24,686
  25,566
  26,514
  27,532
  28,620
  29,782
  31,018
  32,333
  33,728
  35,206
  36,770
  38,425
  40,173
  42,019
  43,967
  46,021
  48,186
  50,467
  52,869
  55,399
  58,061
  60,863
  63,811
  66,911
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  20,806
  21,285
  21,832
  22,446
  23,126
  23,873
  24,686
  25,566
  26,514
  27,532
  28,620
  29,782
  31,018
  32,333
  33,728
  35,206
  36,770
  38,425
  40,173
  42,019
  43,967
  46,021
  48,186
  50,467
  52,869
  55,399
  58,061
  60,863
  63,811
  66,911
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
Average production assets, $m
  9,968
  10,198
  10,460
  10,754
  11,080
  11,438
  11,827
  12,249
  12,703
  13,190
  13,712
  14,269
  14,861
  15,491
  16,159
  16,867
  17,617
  18,409
  19,247
  20,131
  21,065
  22,049
  23,086
  24,179
  25,330
  26,542
  27,817
  29,160
  30,572
  32,057
Working capital, $m
  316
  324
  332
  341
  352
  363
  375
  389
  403
  418
  435
  453
  471
  491
  513
  535
  559
  584
  611
  639
  668
  700
  732
  767
  804
  842
  883
  925
  970
  1,017
Total debt, $m
  6,492
  6,706
  6,951
  7,226
  7,531
  7,865
  8,230
  8,624
  9,049
  9,505
  9,992
  10,513
  11,067
  11,656
  12,280
  12,943
  13,643
  14,385
  15,168
  15,995
  16,867
  17,788
  18,758
  19,780
  20,856
  21,989
  23,182
  24,437
  25,758
  27,147
Total liabilities, $m
  9,321
  9,535
  9,781
  10,056
  10,361
  10,695
  11,059
  11,454
  11,878
  12,334
  12,822
  13,342
  13,896
  14,485
  15,110
  15,772
  16,473
  17,214
  17,997
  18,824
  19,697
  20,617
  21,587
  22,609
  23,685
  24,819
  26,012
  27,267
  28,587
  29,976
Total equity, $m
  11,485
  11,749
  12,051
  12,390
  12,766
  13,178
  13,627
  14,112
  14,636
  15,197
  15,798
  16,440
  17,122
  17,848
  18,618
  19,434
  20,297
  21,210
  22,175
  23,194
  24,270
  25,403
  26,598
  27,858
  29,184
  30,580
  32,050
  33,597
  35,224
  36,935
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  20,806
  21,284
  21,832
  22,446
  23,127
  23,873
  24,686
  25,566
  26,514
  27,531
  28,620
  29,782
  31,018
  32,333
  33,728
  35,206
  36,770
  38,424
  40,172
  42,018
  43,967
  46,020
  48,185
  50,467
  52,869
  55,399
  58,062
  60,864
  63,811
  66,911
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,103
  1,132
  1,169
  1,216
  1,272
  1,337
  1,411
  1,494
  1,587
  1,689
  1,885
  2,007
  2,140
  2,282
  2,437
  2,602
  2,780
  2,970
  3,173
  3,390
  3,621
  3,867
  4,128
  4,406
  4,701
  5,014
  5,346
  5,698
  6,071
  6,465
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  549
  559
  570
  583
  597
  613
  630
  648
  668
  689
  596
  620
  646
  674
  703
  733
  766
  800
  837
  875
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,051
  1,101
  1,154
  1,209
  1,268
  1,329
  1,394
Funds from operations, $m
  1,652
  1,691
  1,740
  1,799
  1,869
  1,950
  2,041
  2,142
  2,255
  2,378
  2,481
  2,628
  2,786
  2,956
  3,139
  3,336
  3,546
  3,770
  4,010
  4,265
  4,537
  4,825
  5,132
  5,458
  5,803
  6,168
  6,556
  6,966
  7,400
  7,859
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  1,646
  1,683
  1,731
  1,790
  1,859
  1,938
  2,028
  2,129
  2,240
  2,363
  2,465
  2,610
  2,767
  2,936
  3,118
  3,313
  3,522
  3,745
  3,983
  4,237
  4,507
  4,794
  5,099
  5,423
  5,766
  6,130
  6,515
  6,923
  7,355
  7,812
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -425
  -433
  -443
  -455
  -468
  -482
  -497
  -514
  -533
  -552
  -573
  -596
  -620
  -646
  -674
  -703
  -733
  -766
  -800
  -837
  -875
  -916
  -959
  -1,004
  -1,051
  -1,101
  -1,154
  -1,209
  -1,268
  -1,329
New CAPEX, $m
  -195
  -229
  -262
  -294
  -326
  -358
  -390
  -422
  -454
  -488
  -522
  -557
  -593
  -630
  -668
  -708
  -750
  -793
  -838
  -884
  -933
  -984
  -1,037
  -1,093
  -1,151
  -1,212
  -1,276
  -1,342
  -1,412
  -1,485
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -620
  -662
  -705
  -749
  -794
  -840
  -887
  -936
  -987
  -1,040
  -1,095
  -1,153
  -1,213
  -1,276
  -1,342
  -1,411
  -1,483
  -1,559
  -1,638
  -1,721
  -1,808
  -1,900
  -1,996
  -2,097
  -2,202
  -2,313
  -2,430
  -2,551
  -2,680
  -2,814
Free cash flow, $m
  1,025
  1,021
  1,026
  1,041
  1,065
  1,099
  1,142
  1,193
  1,253
  1,323
  1,370
  1,457
  1,554
  1,660
  1,776
  1,902
  2,039
  2,187
  2,345
  2,516
  2,699
  2,894
  3,103
  3,326
  3,564
  3,817
  4,086
  4,371
  4,675
  4,997
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  159
  214
  245
  275
  305
  334
  364
  394
  425
  456
  488
  520
  554
  589
  625
  662
  701
  741
  783
  827
  873
  920
  970
  1,022
  1,076
  1,133
  1,193
  1,255
  1,321
  1,389
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  159
  214
  245
  275
  305
  334
  364
  394
  425
  456
  488
  520
  554
  589
  625
  662
  701
  741
  783
  827
  873
  920
  970
  1,022
  1,076
  1,133
  1,193
  1,255
  1,321
  1,389
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,184
  1,235
  1,271
  1,316
  1,370
  1,433
  1,506
  1,587
  1,678
  1,779
  1,858
  1,978
  2,108
  2,249
  2,401
  2,565
  2,740
  2,928
  3,129
  3,343
  3,571
  3,814
  4,073
  4,348
  4,640
  4,950
  5,279
  5,627
  5,995
  6,386
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -217
  -264
  -302
  -339
  -376
  -412
  -449
  -486
  -523
  -562
  -601
  -641
  -683
  -726
  -770
  -816
  -864
  -913
  -965
  -1,019
  -1,075
  -1,134
  -1,195
  -1,259
  -1,326
  -1,396
  -1,470
  -1,547
  -1,627
  -1,711
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  967
  971
  969
  977
  994
  1,021
  1,057
  1,102
  1,155
  1,217
  1,257
  1,336
  1,425
  1,523
  1,631
  1,749
  1,876
  2,014
  2,164
  2,324
  2,496
  2,681
  2,878
  3,089
  3,314
  3,554
  3,809
  4,080
  4,368
  4,675
Discount rate, %
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  922
  878
  827
  783
  745
  710
  677
  646
  616
  585
  540
  509
  476
  442
  407
  370
  333
  297
  260
  225
  192
  161
  132
  107
  85
  66
  50
  37
  27
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Analog Devices, Inc. (Analog Devices) designs, manufactures and markets a portfolio of solutions that leverage high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing technology, including integrated circuits (ICs), algorithms, software and subsystems. Its products include Analog Products, Converters, Amplifiers/Radio Frequency, Other Analog, Power Management and Reference, and Digital Signal Processing Products. The Company is a supplier of data converter products. The Company is a supplier of high-performance amplifiers. Its analog product line also includes products of high performance radio frequency (RF) ICs. The Company's DSPs are used for high-speed numeric calculations. The Company offers its products for applications in various end markets, such as industrial, automotive, consumer and communications. The Company operates in the United States, Rest of North/South America, Europe, Japan and China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.1
Price to Sales 8.1
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 49.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 74.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.6%
EBITDA Margin 31.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
Operating Margin 20.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Net Profit Margin 14.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Effective Tax Rate 12.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Payout Ratio 82.8%

ADI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6201 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Analog Devices, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Analog Devices, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for ADI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Analog Devices, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Analog Devices, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 24.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2868 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Analog Devices, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Analog Devices, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADI are equal to 157.6%.

Life of production assets of 23 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Analog Devices, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADI is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11268.173 million for Analog Devices, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 368.315 million for Analog Devices, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Analog Devices, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $41.5 billion.

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