Intrinsic value of ADMA Biologics - ADMA

Previous Close

$2.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-57%

Previous close

$2.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADMA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  57.14
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  11
  17
  24
  34
  47
  63
  83
  107
  135
  168
  206
  248
  296
  348
  405
  467
  534
  605
  681
  761
  845
  934
  1,026
  1,123
  1,224
  1,329
  1,439
  1,553
  1,671
  1,794
  1,921
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  21
  31
  43
  60
  80
  105
  136
  172
  214
  262
  316
  377
  443
  516
  595
  680
  771
  867
  969
  1,076
  1,189
  1,307
  1,430
  1,558
  1,692
  1,832
  1,976
  2,127
  2,283
  2,446
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  28
  35
  46
  58
  75
  96
  121
  153
  189
  231
  280
  334
  396
  462
  536
  615
  701
  792
  889
  991
  1,099
  1,213
  1,331
  1,455
  1,583
  1,718
  1,859
  2,003
  2,155
  2,312
  2,475
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -100
  -114
  -130
  -148
  -167
  -187
  -208
  -230
  -254
  -278
  -304
  -331
  -360
  -389
  -419
  -451
  -484
  -518
  -554
EBITDA, $m
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -108
  -123
  -139
  -157
  -176
  -195
  -216
  -238
  -261
  -286
  -311
  -337
  -365
  -393
  -423
  -454
  -486
  -519
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -52
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -102
  -119
  -138
  -158
  -180
  -204
  -229
  -256
  -285
  -315
  -347
  -380
  -414
  -450
  -488
  -527
  -568
  -610
  -654
  -700
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -52
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -102
  -119
  -138
  -158
  -180
  -204
  -229
  -256
  -285
  -315
  -347
  -380
  -414
  -450
  -488
  -527
  -568
  -610
  -654
  -700

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24
  14
  20
  28
  38
  52
  68
  87
  111
  137
  168
  203
  242
  285
  332
  382
  437
  495
  557
  623
  692
  764
  840
  919
  1,002
  1,088
  1,177
  1,271
  1,367
  1,468
  1,572
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9
  14
  20
  28
  38
  52
  68
  87
  111
  137
  168
  203
  242
  285
  332
  382
  437
  495
  557
  623
  692
  764
  840
  919
  1,002
  1,088
  1,177
  1,271
  1,367
  1,468
  1,572
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.222
  1.214
  1.200
  1.214
  1.237
  1.212
  1.221
  1.230
  1.216
  1.226
  1.226
  1.222
  1.223
  1.221
  1.220
  1.223
  1.222
  1.222
  1.223
  1.222
  1.221
  1.223
  1.221
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.223
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  37
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  304
  326
  350
Working capital, $m
  11
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  37
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  304
  326
  350
Total debt, $m
  20
  4
  10
  17
  26
  38
  53
  71
  92
  116
  144
  175
  210
  248
  291
  336
  385
  438
  494
  552
  615
  680
  748
  819
  894
  971
  1,052
  1,135
  1,223
  1,313
  1,407
Total liabilities, $m
  28
  12
  18
  25
  34
  46
  61
  79
  100
  124
  152
  183
  218
  256
  299
  344
  393
  446
  502
  560
  623
  688
  756
  827
  902
  979
  1,060
  1,143
  1,231
  1,321
  1,415
Total equity, $m
  -4
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  157
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24
  13
  20
  28
  38
  51
  68
  88
  111
  138
  169
  203
  242
  284
  332
  382
  437
  496
  558
  622
  692
  764
  840
  919
  1,002
  1,088
  1,178
  1,270
  1,368
  1,468
  1,572
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.000
  3.080
  4.930
  6.120
  6.910
  7.450
  7.820
  8.080
  8.280
  8.420
  8.520
  8.610
  8.670
  8.720
  8.760
  8.790
  8.820
  8.840
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.111
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -52
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -102
  -119
  -138
  -158
  -180
  -204
  -229
  -256
  -285
  -315
  -347
  -380
  -414
  -450
  -488
  -527
  -568
  -610
  -654
  -700
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -59
  -70
  -83
  -98
  -114
  -131
  -151
  -172
  -194
  -218
  -244
  -271
  -300
  -330
  -361
  -394
  -428
  -464
  -501
  -540
  -580
  -621
  -665
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -90
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -161
  -183
  -206
  -231
  -258
  -286
  -315
  -346
  -378
  -412
  -447
  -483
  -521
  -560
  -601
  -644
  -688
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -56
Free cash flow, $m
  -17
  -22
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -60
  -72
  -85
  -100
  -117
  -135
  -156
  -178
  -202
  -227
  -254
  -283
  -313
  -344
  -377
  -412
  -448
  -485
  -524
  -565
  -607
  -651
  -697
  -744
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  -10
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  35
  22
  26
  31
  37
  45
  54
  64
  76
  90
  106
  123
  142
  163
  185
  209
  235
  263
  291
  322
  354
  387
  422
  459
  497
  536
  577
  620
  664
  710
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  25
  28
  33
  40
  49
  60
  72
  85
  100
  118
  137
  158
  181
  205
  231
  258
  287
  319
  350
  384
  419
  455
  493
  533
  574
  617
  661
  707
  755
  804
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -35
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -90
  -106
  -123
  -142
  -163
  -185
  -209
  -235
  -263
  -291
  -322
  -354
  -387
  -422
  -459
  -497
  -536
  -577
  -620
  -664
  -710
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -23
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -42
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -100
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -178
  -201
  -227
  -254
  -282
  -312
  -344
  -377
  -411
  -447
  -484
  -523
  -564
  -606
  -650
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  2.9
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

ADMA Biologics, Inc. is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and intends to market specialty plasma-based biologics for the treatment and prevention of infectious diseases. The Company is engaged in the development and commercialization of human plasma and plasma-derived therapeutics. Its segments include Plasma Collection Centers, which includes its operations in Georgia; Research and Development, which includes its plasma development operations in New Jersey, and Corporate. Its targeted patient populations are immune-compromised individuals suffering from an underlying immune deficiency disorder or may be immune-suppressed for medical reasons. Its product candidates are intended to be used by physician specialists focused on caring for immune-compromised patients at risk of contracting infectious diseases. Its intravenous immunoglobulin product candidate, RI-002, is intended for the treatment of primary immune deficiency disease.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ADMA Biologics (ADMA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.8
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book -8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2
Price to Free Cash Flow -2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 57.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -350%
Total Debt to Equity -500%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -75%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.3%
Return On Total Capital -121.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -95.6%
Return On Equity 1333.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 232.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
EBITDA Margin -163.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -224.4%
Operating Margin -154.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -216.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -181.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -240.8%
Net Profit Margin -181.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -240.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ADMA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADMA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ADMA Biologics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ADMA Biologics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADMA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for ADMA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ADMA Biologics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ADMA Biologics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADMA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 127.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADMA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.1% for ADMA Biologics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ADMA Biologics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADMA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADMA are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ADMA Biologics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADMA is equal to 18.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4 million for ADMA Biologics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.295 million for ADMA Biologics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ADMA Biologics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ADMA: Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results and Corporate Update   [Aug-28-17 09:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ ADMA Biologics to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-23-17 07:38AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Adma Biologics reports 2Q loss   [Aug-11-17 09:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ADMA Biologics, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ADMA: 1Q:17 Results and Biotest Acquisition: Valuation Implications   [May-19-17 03:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Adma Biologics reports 1Q loss   [May-12-17 04:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA): Does It Stack Up To Its Peers?   [Dec-15-16 01:43AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ADMA: Incremental Progress on CMC Issue Resolution.   [Nov-21-16 10:15AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ ADMA Biologics to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Sep-01-16 07:38AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. Files SEC form 8-K, Other Events   [Apr-27-16 04:37PM  EDGAR Online]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Dumping Manitex International, Inc. (MNTX)   [Nov-26  11:55AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of ADMA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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