Intrinsic value of Alliance Data Systems Corporation - ADS

Previous Close

$180.93

  Intrinsic Value

$260.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+44%

Previous close

$180.93

 
Intrinsic value

$260.62

 
Up/down potential

+44%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,947
  8,130
  8,339
  8,573
  8,833
  9,118
  9,429
  9,765
  10,127
  10,516
  10,931
  11,375
  11,847
  12,349
  12,882
  13,447
  14,044
  14,676
  15,344
  16,049
  16,793
  17,577
  18,404
  19,276
  20,193
  21,160
  22,177
  23,247
  24,372
  25,557
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,245
  6,379
  6,532
  6,703
  6,893
  7,101
  7,328
  7,574
  7,839
  8,123
  7,988
  8,313
  8,658
  9,025
  9,414
  9,826
  10,263
  10,725
  11,213
  11,728
  12,272
  12,845
  13,449
  14,086
  14,757
  15,463
  16,206
  16,988
  17,811
  18,676
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,245
  6,379
  6,532
  6,703
  6,893
  7,101
  7,328
  7,574
  7,839
  8,123
  7,988
  8,313
  8,658
  9,025
  9,414
  9,826
  10,263
  10,725
  11,213
  11,728
  12,272
  12,845
  13,449
  14,086
  14,757
  15,463
  16,206
  16,988
  17,811
  18,676
Operating income, $m
  1,701
  1,751
  1,807
  1,870
  1,940
  2,017
  2,100
  2,191
  2,288
  2,393
  2,943
  3,063
  3,190
  3,325
  3,468
  3,620
  3,781
  3,951
  4,131
  4,321
  4,521
  4,732
  4,955
  5,190
  5,437
  5,697
  5,971
  6,259
  6,562
  6,881
EBITDA, $m
  2,418
  2,474
  2,537
  2,609
  2,688
  2,774
  2,869
  2,971
  3,081
  3,200
  3,326
  3,461
  3,605
  3,758
  3,920
  4,092
  4,273
  4,466
  4,669
  4,883
  5,110
  5,348
  5,600
  5,865
  6,144
  6,438
  6,748
  7,073
  7,416
  7,776
Interest expense (income), $m
  405
  723
  174
  193
  214
  238
  264
  294
  325
  360
  397
  436
  479
  524
  572
  623
  678
  736
  797
  861
  929
  1,001
  1,077
  1,157
  1,242
  1,331
  1,424
  1,523
  1,627
  1,736
  1,851
Earnings before tax, $m
  978
  1,577
  1,614
  1,656
  1,702
  1,752
  1,807
  1,866
  1,929
  1,996
  2,507
  2,584
  2,666
  2,753
  2,845
  2,942
  3,046
  3,155
  3,270
  3,392
  3,520
  3,655
  3,798
  3,948
  4,106
  4,272
  4,448
  4,632
  4,826
  5,030
Tax expense, $m
  264
  426
  436
  447
  460
  473
  488
  504
  521
  539
  677
  698
  720
  743
  768
  794
  822
  852
  883
  916
  950
  987
  1,025
  1,066
  1,109
  1,154
  1,201
  1,251
  1,303
  1,358
Net income, $m
  714
  1,151
  1,178
  1,209
  1,243
  1,279
  1,319
  1,362
  1,408
  1,457
  1,830
  1,886
  1,946
  2,009
  2,077
  2,148
  2,223
  2,303
  2,387
  2,476
  2,570
  2,668
  2,772
  2,882
  2,997
  3,119
  3,247
  3,381
  3,523
  3,672

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,695
  17,079
  17,518
  18,011
  18,557
  19,156
  19,808
  20,514
  21,275
  22,092
  22,965
  23,897
  24,890
  25,944
  27,063
  28,249
  29,505
  30,833
  32,235
  33,716
  35,279
  36,927
  38,665
  40,495
  42,423
  44,453
  46,589
  48,837
  51,203
  53,690
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,695
  17,079
  17,518
  18,011
  18,557
  19,156
  19,808
  20,514
  21,275
  22,092
  22,965
  23,897
  24,890
  25,944
  27,063
  28,249
  29,505
  30,833
  32,235
  33,716
  35,279
  36,927
  38,665
  40,495
  42,423
  44,453
  46,589
  48,837
  51,203
  53,690
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
Average production assets, $m
  2,924
  2,992
  3,069
  3,155
  3,251
  3,355
  3,470
  3,593
  3,727
  3,870
  4,023
  4,186
  4,360
  4,545
  4,741
  4,948
  5,168
  5,401
  5,647
  5,906
  6,180
  6,469
  6,773
  7,093
  7,431
  7,787
  8,161
  8,555
  8,969
  9,405
Working capital, $m
  -6,675
  -6,829
  -7,004
  -7,201
  -7,420
  -7,659
  -7,920
  -8,202
  -8,507
  -8,833
  -9,182
  -9,555
  -9,952
  -10,374
  -10,821
  -11,295
  -11,797
  -12,328
  -12,889
  -13,481
  -14,106
  -14,765
  -15,460
  -16,192
  -16,962
  -17,774
  -18,628
  -19,527
  -20,473
  -21,468
Total debt, $m
  3,222
  3,567
  3,962
  4,406
  4,897
  5,436
  6,023
  6,659
  7,344
  8,079
  8,865
  9,704
  10,597
  11,546
  12,553
  13,621
  14,751
  15,945
  17,208
  18,541
  19,947
  21,431
  22,994
  24,642
  26,377
  28,204
  30,126
  32,150
  34,279
  36,518
Total liabilities, $m
  15,026
  15,371
  15,766
  16,210
  16,701
  17,240
  17,827
  18,463
  19,148
  19,883
  20,669
  21,508
  22,401
  23,350
  24,357
  25,425
  26,554
  27,749
  29,012
  30,345
  31,751
  33,235
  34,798
  36,446
  38,181
  40,008
  41,930
  43,954
  46,082
  48,321
Total equity, $m
  1,670
  1,708
  1,752
  1,801
  1,856
  1,916
  1,981
  2,051
  2,128
  2,209
  2,297
  2,390
  2,489
  2,594
  2,706
  2,825
  2,950
  3,083
  3,224
  3,372
  3,528
  3,693
  3,866
  4,050
  4,242
  4,445
  4,659
  4,884
  5,120
  5,369
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,696
  17,079
  17,518
  18,011
  18,557
  19,156
  19,808
  20,514
  21,276
  22,092
  22,966
  23,898
  24,890
  25,944
  27,063
  28,250
  29,504
  30,832
  32,236
  33,717
  35,279
  36,928
  38,664
  40,496
  42,423
  44,453
  46,589
  48,838
  51,202
  53,690
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.930
  2.090
  2.260
  2.450
  2.640
  2.840
  3.040
  3.250
  3.450
  3.660
  3.860
  4.060
  4.260
  4.450
  4.640
  4.820
  5.000
  5.170
  5.340
  5.500
  5.650
  5.800
  5.950
  6.090
  6.220
  6.340
  6.470
  6.580
  6.690
  6.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  714
  1,151
  1,178
  1,209
  1,243
  1,279
  1,319
  1,362
  1,408
  1,457
  1,830
  1,886
  1,946
  2,009
  2,077
  2,148
  2,223
  2,303
  2,387
  2,476
  2,570
  2,668
  2,772
  2,882
  2,997
  3,119
  3,247
  3,381
  3,523
  3,672
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  717
  723
  730
  739
  748
  758
  769
  780
  793
  807
  383
  399
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  562
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  896
Funds from operations, $m
  1,431
  1,874
  1,909
  1,948
  1,990
  2,037
  2,088
  2,142
  2,201
  2,264
  2,213
  2,285
  2,361
  2,442
  2,528
  2,619
  2,716
  2,817
  2,925
  3,038
  3,158
  3,284
  3,417
  3,558
  3,705
  3,860
  4,024
  4,196
  4,377
  4,567
Change in working capital, $m
  -131
  -154
  -176
  -197
  -218
  -240
  -261
  -282
  -304
  -326
  -349
  -373
  -397
  -422
  -447
  -474
  -502
  -531
  -561
  -592
  -625
  -659
  -695
  -732
  -771
  -812
  -854
  -899
  -946
  -995
Cash from operations, $m
  1,562
  2,028
  2,084
  2,145
  2,209
  2,276
  2,348
  2,425
  2,505
  2,591
  2,562
  2,658
  2,758
  2,864
  2,976
  3,093
  3,218
  3,348
  3,486
  3,631
  3,783
  3,943
  4,112
  4,289
  4,476
  4,672
  4,878
  5,095
  5,323
  5,562
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -273
  -279
  -285
  -292
  -300
  -310
  -320
  -330
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -399
  -415
  -433
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -514
  -538
  -562
  -589
  -616
  -645
  -676
  -708
  -742
  -777
  -815
  -854
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -67
  -77
  -86
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -321
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -394
  -414
  -436
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -328
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -546
  -573
  -600
  -629
  -659
  -691
  -725
  -760
  -797
  -836
  -878
  -920
  -966
  -1,014
  -1,064
  -1,116
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,290
Free cash flow, $m
  1,234
  1,682
  1,722
  1,766
  1,812
  1,862
  1,915
  1,970
  2,030
  2,093
  2,041
  2,111
  2,185
  2,264
  2,347
  2,434
  2,526
  2,623
  2,726
  2,833
  2,947
  3,066
  3,192
  3,324
  3,463
  3,609
  3,762
  3,924
  4,094
  4,272
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10,168
  346
  395
  444
  491
  539
  587
  636
  685
  735
  786
  839
  893
  949
  1,007
  1,067
  1,130
  1,195
  1,263
  1,333
  1,407
  1,483
  1,564
  1,647
  1,735
  1,827
  1,923
  2,023
  2,129
  2,239
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9,771
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -397
  346
  395
  444
  491
  539
  587
  636
  685
  735
  786
  839
  893
  949
  1,007
  1,067
  1,130
  1,195
  1,263
  1,333
  1,407
  1,483
  1,564
  1,647
  1,735
  1,827
  1,923
  2,023
  2,129
  2,239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  837
  2,027
  2,117
  2,209
  2,304
  2,401
  2,502
  2,606
  2,714
  2,827
  2,827
  2,950
  3,079
  3,213
  3,354
  3,502
  3,656
  3,818
  3,988
  4,166
  4,353
  4,549
  4,755
  4,971
  5,198
  5,436
  5,685
  5,947
  6,222
  6,511
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10,485
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  11,147
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,499
  1,989
  2,074
  2,160
  2,249
  2,341
  2,436
  2,535
  2,638
  2,746
  2,740
  2,857
  2,979
  3,108
  3,242
  3,383
  3,531
  3,686
  3,848
  4,018
  4,197
  4,385
  4,582
  4,788
  5,005
  5,233
  5,472
  5,722
  5,986
  6,262
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,437
  1,821
  1,805
  1,779
  1,743
  1,699
  1,646
  1,585
  1,516
  1,440
  1,301
  1,219
  1,133
  1,043
  952
  860
  768
  679
  592
  511
  434
  364
  300
  244
  195
  153
  117
  89
  65
  47
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Alliance Data Systems Corporation is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions serving consumer-based businesses in a range of industries. The Company offers a portfolio of integrated outsourced marketing solutions, including customer loyalty programs, database marketing services, end-to-end marketing services, analytics and creative services, direct marketing services, and private label and co-brand retail credit card programs. The Company operates through three segments: LoyaltyOne, which provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Company's Canadian AIR MILES Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. (BrandLoyalty); Epsilon, which provides end-to-end, integrated direct marketing solutions, and Card Services, which provides risk management solutions, account origination, funding, transaction processing, customer care, collections and marketing services for the Company's private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 833.2%
Total Debt to Equity 1263%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Equity 23.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Operating Margin 17.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 6.9%

ADS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7791 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance Data Systems Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Alliance Data Systems Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ADS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance Data Systems Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance Data Systems Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Alliance Data Systems Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance Data Systems Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADS are equal to 36.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance Data Systems Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADS is equal to -84%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2332.1 million for Alliance Data Systems Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.013 million for Alliance Data Systems Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance Data Systems Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.6 billion.

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