Intrinsic value of Addus HomeCare - ADUS

Previous Close

$58.30

  Intrinsic Value

$73.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+27%

Previous close

$58.30

 
Intrinsic value

$73.96

 
Up/down potential

+27%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADUS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  605
  639
  675
  713
  752
  793
  836
  881
  928
  977
  1,028
  1,082
  1,139
  1,198
  1,260
  1,325
  1,393
  1,464
  1,539
  1,618
  1,700
  1,786
  1,877
  1,972
  2,072
Variable operating expenses, $m
  252
  267
  283
  299
  316
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  549
  578
  608
  639
  673
  707
  744
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,002
  1,053
  1,106
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  169
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
  196
  201
  205
  210
  214
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  244
  249
  255
  261
  266
  272
  278
  284
  291
  297
  303
  310
  317
Total operating expenses, $m
  421
  439
  459
  479
  500
  522
  544
  567
  592
  617
  633
  660
  689
  719
  750
  783
  817
  852
  888
  928
  968
  1,010
  1,054
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,251
  1,305
  1,363
  1,423
Operating income, $m
  32
  41
  51
  61
  72
  83
  95
  108
  121
  135
  160
  175
  192
  209
  227
  246
  266
  287
  309
  332
  357
  383
  410
  439
  470
  502
  536
  571
  609
  649
EBITDA, $m
  54
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  121
  135
  149
  164
  179
  196
  213
  231
  251
  271
  292
  314
  338
  363
  389
  417
  446
  477
  509
  544
  580
  617
  657
  700
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  35
  44
  53
  63
  74
  85
  96
  109
  121
  146
  160
  175
  191
  207
  225
  243
  263
  284
  305
  328
  353
  378
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  564
  601
Tax expense, $m
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  79
  89
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  223
  240
  257
  276
  296
  316
  338
  361
  386
  411
  439

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  421
  445
  469
  495
  521
  549
  579
  609
  641
  675
  710
  747
  786
  826
  869
  913
  960
  1,009
  1,061
  1,114
  1,171
  1,230
  1,293
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  421
  445
  469
  495
  521
  549
  579
  609
  641
  675
  710
  747
  786
  826
  869
  913
  960
  1,009
  1,061
  1,114
  1,171
  1,230
  1,293
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.606
  1.603
  1.604
  1.602
  1.602
  1.605
  1.602
  1.603
  1.602
  1.603
  1.602
  1.605
  1.605
  1.603
  1.604
  1.604
  1.603
  1.604
  1.604
  1.603
  1.604
  1.603
  1.604
  1.603
  1.604
  1.602
  1.603
  1.603
  1.603
  1.602
Average production assets, $m
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  165
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  396
  417
  438
  460
  483
  508
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Total debt, $m
  47
  53
  59
  66
  72
  80
  87
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
  370
  392
Total liabilities, $m
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  380
  399
  420
  441
Total equity, $m
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  545
  573
  602
  633
  665
  699
  734
  772
  811
  852
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  399
  422
  445
  469
  495
  522
  549
  578
  610
  642
  675
  710
  747
  786
  827
  869
  913
  960
  1,009
  1,061
  1,114
  1,171
  1,231
  1,293
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659
  0.659

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  79
  89
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  223
  240
  257
  276
  296
  316
  338
  361
  386
  411
  439
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  98
  107
  118
  126
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  254
  272
  292
  312
  333
  356
  380
  405
  432
  460
  489
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  48
  56
  63
  71
  80
  89
  98
  108
  118
  126
  138
  150
  162
  176
  190
  205
  220
  237
  254
  273
  292
  313
  334
  357
  381
  406
  433
  461
  490
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  30
  37
  43
  50
  58
  65
  73
  82
  91
  98
  108
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  180
  195
  210
  226
  243
  261
  280
  300
  321
  343
  367
  391
  418
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  296
  317
  339
  362
  386
  412
  439
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash available for distribution, $m
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  66
  75
  83
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  198
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  305
  326
  349
  373
  398
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  18
  23
  27
  31
  34
  37
  40
  41
  43
  44
  43
  42
  42
  40
  39
  36
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Addus HomeCare Corporation is a provider of personal care services, which are provided primarily in the home. The Company's personal care services include assistance with bathing, grooming, oral care, skincare, assistance with feeding and dressing, medication reminders, meal planning and preparation, housekeeping and transportation services and other activities of daily living. The Company provides these non-medical services on a long-term, continuous basis. As of December 31, 2016, the Company delivered services to its consumers through 114 individual agencies located in 24 states and three adult day services centers in Illinois. Its services, which include non-medical care, such as personal care services, are provided to consumers who are unable to independently perform some or all of their activities of daily living.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Addus HomeCare (ADUS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 56
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -672.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -224.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 13.8%
Total Debt to Equity 15.7%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Payout Ratio 0%

ADUS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADUS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $426 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Addus HomeCare. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Addus HomeCare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADUS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ADUS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Addus HomeCare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Addus HomeCare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADUS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $165 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADUS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13% for Addus HomeCare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Addus HomeCare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADUS stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADUS are equal to 24.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Addus HomeCare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADUS is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $175 million for Addus HomeCare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11 million for Addus HomeCare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Addus HomeCare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Addus HomeCare Announces Public Offering of Common Stock   [Aug-13-18 04:14PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Addus HomeCare Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Addus HomeCare (ADUS) Q2 Earnings Lag Estimates   [Aug-06-18 06:15PM  Zacks]
▶ Addus HomeCare: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Small Growth Stocks Flying Under the Radar   [Jul-31-18 10:18AM  Investopedia]
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▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-18 07:59AM  Zacks]
▶ Addus HomeCare: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Addus HomeCare Completes Purchase Of Ambercare   [May-01-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Addus HomeCare Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-06-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Addus HomeCare posts 4Q profit   [Mar-05-18 05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Addus HomeCare Q4 Earnings Preview   [07:58AM  Benzinga]
▶ When Should You Buy Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS)?   [Nov-21-17 08:59AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 16th   [Nov-16-17 09:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Addus HomeCare posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 05:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Addus HomeCare posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Addus HomeCare Corp. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 02:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Best Stocks For The Second Half of 2017   [Jul-03-17 11:43AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 22nd   [Jun-22-17 10:15AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Addus HomeCare Corp. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 7th   [Jun-07-17 10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Which Companies Are Now Outperforming 95% Of All Stocks?   [Jun-05-17 11:29AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ No. 1-Ranked Home-Care Stock Giving Therapy To New Buy Zone   [Jun-01-17 12:27PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 25th   [May-25-17 09:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Thinly Traded Health Care Stock Tries To Resuscitate New Breakout   [May-24-17 11:16AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 17th   [May-17-17 10:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Addus HomeCare Bolts Past Buy Zone, Gets IBD Rating Upgrade   [May-12-17 11:01AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Addus HomeCare posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
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