Intrinsic value of Adverum Biotechnologies - ADVM

Previous Close

$3.56

  Intrinsic Value

$0.72

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$3.56

 
Intrinsic value

$0.72

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADVM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Variable operating expenses, $m
  158
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  490
  515
  542
  570
  599
  629
  661
  695
  730
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  158
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  490
  515
  542
  570
  599
  629
  661
  695
  730
Operating income, $m
  -156
  -165
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -274
  -290
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -395
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -535
  -563
  -591
  -621
  -653
  -686
  -721
EBITDA, $m
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -413
  -434
  -457
  -480
  -505
  -531
  -558
  -587
  -617
  -648
  -681
  -715
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -156
  -165
  -176
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -624
  -656
  -689
  -724
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -156
  -165
  -176
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -624
  -656
  -689
  -724

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.091
  0.087
  0.083
  0.077
  0.111
  0.103
  0.097
  0.091
  0.088
  0.083
  0.079
  0.100
  0.093
  0.089
  0.085
  0.100
  0.096
  0.091
  0.086
  0.098
  0.094
  0.088
  0.085
  0.093
  0.089
  0.096
  0.092
  0.088
  0.094
  0.089
Average production assets, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
Total equity, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  30
  31
  32
  35
  36
  38
  41
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.090
  0.170
  0.410
  0.630
  0.830
  1.020
  1.200
  1.360
  1.510
  1.660
  1.790
  1.920
  2.040
  2.150
  2.260
  2.360
  2.450
  2.540
  2.620
  2.700
  2.780
  2.850
  2.920
  2.980
  3.040
  3.100
  3.160
  3.210
  3.260
  3.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191
  0.191

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -156
  -165
  -176
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -624
  -656
  -689
  -724
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -414
  -436
  -458
  -482
  -507
  -533
  -560
  -589
  -619
  -651
  -684
  -719
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -393
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -506
  -532
  -559
  -588
  -618
  -649
  -682
  -717
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -247
  -260
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -655
  -689
  -724
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  166
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  234
  248
  262
  275
  291
  306
  323
  340
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  538
  566
  595
  625
  657
  690
  725
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  235
  249
  264
  277
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  466
  490
  515
  541
  569
  598
  628
  661
  694
  729
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -155
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -155
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -275
  -291
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -487
  -512
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -625
  -657
  -690
  -725
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -131
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -459
  -483
  -508
  -534
  -561
  -590
  -620
  -652
  -685
  -720
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -125
  -150
  -151
  -152
  -152
  -150
  -148
  -145
  -141
  -136
  -130
  -123
  -116
  -108
  -99
  -90
  -81
  -73
  -64
  -55
  -47
  -40
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  2.9
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc., formerly Avalanche Biotechnologies, Inc., is a gene therapy company. The Company is engaged in discovering and developing medicines to patients suffering from chronic or debilitating disease. The Company operates and manages its business in the segment of developing and commercializing gene therapeutics. It focuses on diseases with unmet medical need, including ophthalmic diseases, such as wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), as well as rare genetic diseases. The Company's product candidates include AVA-101 and AVA-201 for treatment of Wet AMD; AVA-322 and AVA-323 for the treatment of Color Vision Deficiency, and AVA-311 for the treatment of Juvenile X-linked Retinoschisis. It has generated human proof-of-concept data for AVA-101 in a Phase I trial with over eight wet AMD subjects conducted at Lions Eye Institute (LEI) in Australia. It is developing AVA-322 and AVA-323 for the treatment of color vision deficiency (CVD).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 148.8
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -50%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -45.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.8%
Return On Total Capital -48.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.2%
Return On Equity -48.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.2%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -11300%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5366.7%
Operating Margin -11600%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5466.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -11500%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5450%
Net Profit Margin -11400%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5416.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ADVM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADVM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1.849 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Adverum Biotechnologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Adverum Biotechnologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADVM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ADVM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Adverum Biotechnologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Adverum Biotechnologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADVM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 8000%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADVM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Adverum Biotechnologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Adverum Biotechnologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADVM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADVM are equal to 304.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Adverum Biotechnologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADVM is equal to -370.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $184.028 million for Adverum Biotechnologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.173 million for Adverum Biotechnologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Adverum Biotechnologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Adverum Biotechnologies: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies Provides Program Updates   [Nov-01-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cantor Fitzgerald's 7 Buys For 7 Biotechs   [Sep-21-18 03:32PM  Benzinga]
▶ Adverum to Present at Cantor Global Healthcare Conference   [Sep-18-18 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 7 Cheap Biotech Stocks to Buy Now   [Aug-23-18 11:39AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 07:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Adverum Biotechnologies Got Crushed Today   [May-04-18 12:11PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies Announces Leadership Changes   [May-03-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for In-the-Know Investors   [Mar-14-18 11:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies posts 4Q loss   [Mar-06-18 07:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks With Jaw-Dropping Growth Potential   [Jan-28-18 03:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks That Soared This Week: Are They Buys?   [Jan-27-18 10:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Is Moving Higher Today   [Jan-25-18 04:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies Provides 2018 Outlook   [Jan-04-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Is Adverum Biotechnologies Incs (ADVM) Share Price Doing?   [Nov-24-17 01:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Nov-15-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies posts 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Sep-28-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Adverum Biotechnologies posts 1Q loss   [May-09-17 04:58PM  Associated Press]

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