Intrinsic value of Advaxis, Inc. - ADXS

Previous Close

$0.48

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$0.48

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADXS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  10
  15
  22
  32
  45
  62
  84
  110
  142
  179
  222
  271
  327
  389
  458
  533
  613
  700
  793
  892
  996
  1,106
  1,221
  1,341
  1,467
  1,599
  1,735
  1,878
  2,026
  2,179
Variable operating expenses, $m
  54
  83
  124
  179
  253
  347
  466
  611
  786
  993
  1,232
  1,507
  1,816
  2,161
  2,541
  2,956
  3,405
  3,887
  4,402
  4,950
  5,528
  6,137
  6,776
  7,446
  8,144
  8,873
  9,632
  10,422
  11,243
  12,096
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
Total operating expenses, $m
  98
  128
  170
  226
  301
  396
  516
  662
  838
  1,046
  1,287
  1,563
  1,873
  2,219
  2,601
  3,017
  3,467
  3,951
  4,467
  5,016
  5,596
  6,206
  6,847
  7,518
  8,218
  8,949
  9,709
  10,501
  11,324
  12,179
Operating income, $m
  -88
  -113
  -148
  -194
  -255
  -334
  -432
  -553
  -697
  -868
  -1,065
  -1,291
  -1,546
  -1,830
  -2,143
  -2,484
  -2,853
  -3,250
  -3,674
  -4,124
  -4,600
  -5,101
  -5,626
  -6,177
  -6,751
  -7,350
  -7,974
  -8,623
  -9,298
  -10,000
EBITDA, $m
  -86
  -110
  -144
  -189
  -248
  -324
  -419
  -536
  -676
  -841
  -1,032
  -1,251
  -1,498
  -1,773
  -2,076
  -2,406
  -2,764
  -3,148
  -3,558
  -3,994
  -4,454
  -4,939
  -5,447
  -5,980
  -6,536
  -7,116
  -7,720
  -8,348
  -9,001
  -9,680
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  8
  13
  18
  25
  34
  44
  56
  70
  86
  104
  124
  146
  170
  197
  225
  255
  287
  321
  356
  394
  433
  473
  516
  560
  606
  654
Earnings before tax, $m
  -88
  -114
  -150
  -199
  -264
  -346
  -450
  -578
  -731
  -912
  -1,121
  -1,361
  -1,632
  -1,934
  -2,267
  -2,630
  -3,024
  -3,447
  -3,899
  -4,379
  -4,887
  -5,421
  -5,983
  -6,570
  -7,184
  -7,824
  -8,490
  -9,184
  -9,905
  -10,654
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -88
  -114
  -150
  -199
  -264
  -346
  -450
  -578
  -731
  -912
  -1,121
  -1,361
  -1,632
  -1,934
  -2,267
  -2,630
  -3,024
  -3,447
  -3,899
  -4,379
  -4,887
  -5,421
  -5,983
  -6,570
  -7,184
  -7,824
  -8,490
  -9,184
  -9,905
  -10,654

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  64
  99
  148
  215
  303
  416
  559
  733
  944
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,945
  6,640
  7,372
  8,139
  8,943
  9,783
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  64
  99
  148
  215
  303
  416
  559
  733
  944
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,945
  6,640
  7,372
  8,139
  8,943
  9,783
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.156
  0.152
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Average production assets, $m
  15
  23
  34
  50
  71
  97
  130
  171
  220
  278
  345
  422
  509
  605
  711
  828
  953
  1,088
  1,233
  1,386
  1,548
  1,718
  1,897
  2,085
  2,280
  2,484
  2,697
  2,918
  3,148
  3,387
Working capital, $m
  -28
  -43
  -65
  -94
  -133
  -182
  -245
  -321
  -414
  -522
  -649
  -793
  -956
  -1,137
  -1,337
  -1,555
  -1,792
  -2,046
  -2,317
  -2,605
  -2,909
  -3,230
  -3,566
  -3,918
  -4,286
  -4,670
  -5,069
  -5,485
  -5,917
  -6,366
Total debt, $m
  19
  51
  95
  155
  234
  336
  465
  622
  811
  1,035
  1,294
  1,591
  1,925
  2,298
  2,708
  3,157
  3,642
  4,164
  4,721
  5,312
  5,938
  6,596
  7,287
  8,011
  8,766
  9,554
  10,374
  11,228
  12,116
  13,038
Total liabilities, $m
  58
  89
  133
  193
  272
  375
  503
  660
  849
  1,073
  1,332
  1,629
  1,963
  2,336
  2,747
  3,195
  3,680
  4,202
  4,759
  5,351
  5,976
  6,634
  7,325
  8,049
  8,804
  9,592
  10,413
  11,266
  12,154
  13,076
Total equity, $m
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  64
  99
  148
  214
  302
  417
  559
  733
  943
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,946
  6,640
  7,371
  8,139
  8,943
  9,782
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.030
  5.140
  6.420
  7.220
  7.740
  8.080
  8.320
  8.480
  8.600
  8.680
  8.740
  8.790
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -88
  -114
  -150
  -199
  -264
  -346
  -450
  -578
  -731
  -912
  -1,121
  -1,361
  -1,632
  -1,934
  -2,267
  -2,630
  -3,024
  -3,447
  -3,899
  -4,379
  -4,887
  -5,421
  -5,983
  -6,570
  -7,184
  -7,824
  -8,490
  -9,184
  -9,905
  -10,654
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  131
  146
  162
  179
  197
  215
  234
  254
  275
  297
  320
Funds from operations, $m
  -86
  -111
  -146
  -194
  -256
  -337
  -437
  -561
  -709
  -885
  -1,088
  -1,321
  -1,584
  -1,877
  -2,200
  -2,552
  -2,934
  -3,344
  -3,783
  -4,248
  -4,741
  -5,259
  -5,804
  -6,373
  -6,969
  -7,589
  -8,236
  -8,908
  -9,608
  -10,334
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -39
  -50
  -62
  -77
  -92
  -109
  -126
  -144
  -163
  -181
  -200
  -218
  -236
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -399
  -416
  -432
  -449
Cash from operations, $m
  -76
  -96
  -125
  -165
  -218
  -287
  -375
  -484
  -617
  -776
  -962
  -1,177
  -1,421
  -1,695
  -2,000
  -2,334
  -2,698
  -3,090
  -3,512
  -3,961
  -4,436
  -4,939
  -5,467
  -6,021
  -6,601
  -7,206
  -7,836
  -8,493
  -9,175
  -9,885
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -103
  -116
  -131
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -197
  -215
  -234
  -254
  -275
  -297
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -49
  -58
  -67
  -77
  -87
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -26
  -33
  -42
  -53
  -65
  -79
  -93
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -163
  -183
  -204
  -225
  -247
  -269
  -293
  -317
  -341
  -366
  -393
  -419
  -447
  -475
  -505
  -536
Free cash flow, $m
  -82
  -106
  -138
  -183
  -243
  -320
  -417
  -537
  -682
  -855
  -1,055
  -1,286
  -1,548
  -1,840
  -2,163
  -2,517
  -2,901
  -3,316
  -3,759
  -4,230
  -4,729
  -5,255
  -5,808
  -6,388
  -6,993
  -7,625
  -8,283
  -8,968
  -9,681
  -10,421
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  31
  44
  60
  79
  102
  128
  157
  189
  223
  259
  297
  334
  373
  411
  448
  485
  522
  557
  592
  625
  658
  691
  723
  756
  788
  820
  854
  888
  923
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  93
  118
  155
  206
  272
  358
  464
  595
  752
  936
  1,150
  1,394
  1,669
  1,975
  2,312
  2,680
  3,078
  3,505
  3,961
  4,445
  4,956
  5,495
  6,059
  6,650
  7,268
  7,911
  8,581
  9,278
  10,003
  10,756
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  149
  199
  266
  351
  460
  592
  752
  941
  1,159
  1,409
  1,691
  2,003
  2,348
  2,723
  3,128
  3,563
  4,027
  4,518
  5,037
  5,581
  6,153
  6,750
  7,373
  8,024
  8,699
  9,401
  10,132
  10,891
  11,679
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  43
  61
  83
  109
  140
  175
  215
  259
  305
  354
  404
  456
  508
  560
  611
  662
  711
  759
  806
  853
  898
  942
  986
  1,030
  1,074
  1,119
  1,164
  1,210
  1,258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -93
  -118
  -155
  -206
  -272
  -358
  -464
  -595
  -752
  -936
  -1,150
  -1,394
  -1,669
  -1,975
  -2,312
  -2,680
  -3,078
  -3,505
  -3,961
  -4,445
  -4,956
  -5,495
  -6,059
  -6,650
  -7,268
  -7,911
  -8,581
  -9,278
  -10,003
  -10,756
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -41
  -74
  -94
  -123
  -164
  -218
  -289
  -380
  -493
  -631
  -796
  -990
  -1,213
  -1,467
  -1,752
  -2,069
  -2,416
  -2,794
  -3,202
  -3,638
  -4,104
  -4,597
  -5,117
  -5,664
  -6,238
  -6,837
  -7,463
  -8,115
  -8,793
  -9,499
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -39
  -68
  -82
  -102
  -127
  -158
  -195
  -237
  -283
  -331
  -378
  -422
  -461
  -493
  -514
  -526
  -526
  -515
  -493
  -462
  -424
  -381
  -335
  -288
  -243
  -199
  -160
  -126
  -96
  -72
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  2.6
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Advaxis, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of Listeria monocytogenes (Lm)-Listeriolysin O (LLO) cancer immunotherapies. These immunotherapies are based on a platform technology that utilizes live attenuated Lm bioengineered to secrete antigen/adjuvant fusion proteins. These Lm-LLO strains integrate multiple functions into a single immunotherapy as they access and direct antigen presenting cells to stimulate anti-tumor T-cell immunity, stimulate and activate the immune system with the equivalent of multiple adjuvants, and simultaneously reduce tumor protection in the tumor microenvironment to enable the T-cells to eliminate tumors. Axalimogene filolisbac is its lead Lm-LLO immunotherapy product candidate for the treatment of Human Papilloma Virus-associated cancers. ADXS-PSA is its Lm-LLO immunotherapy product candidate that targets the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) associated with prostate cancer.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advaxis, Inc. (ADXS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 200%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -70.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.6%
Return On Total Capital -107.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.7%
Return On Equity -107.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -808.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -902.8%
Operating Margin -825%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -908.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -816.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -905.6%
Net Profit Margin -775%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -875%
Effective Tax Rate 5.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

ADXS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADXS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advaxis, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Advaxis, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADXS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ADXS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advaxis, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advaxis, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADXS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 566.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADXS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Advaxis, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advaxis, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADXS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADXS are equal to 155.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advaxis, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADXS is equal to -292.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24.051 million for Advaxis, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.696 million for Advaxis, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advaxis, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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