Intrinsic value of Ameren Corporation - AEE

Previous Close

$77.45

  Intrinsic Value

$14.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$77.45

 
Intrinsic value

$14.29

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,417
  6,564
  6,733
  6,923
  7,132
  7,363
  7,613
  7,885
  8,177
  8,491
  8,827
  9,185
  9,566
  9,972
  10,402
  10,858
  11,340
  11,851
  12,390
  12,959
  13,560
  14,193
  14,861
  15,565
  16,306
  17,086
  17,907
  18,771
  19,680
  20,636
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,953
  5,066
  5,195
  5,340
  5,501
  5,677
  5,869
  6,077
  6,301
  6,541
  6,757
  7,031
  7,323
  7,633
  7,962
  8,311
  8,681
  9,071
  9,484
  9,920
  10,380
  10,864
  11,376
  11,914
  12,481
  13,079
  13,707
  14,369
  15,064
  15,796
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,953
  5,066
  5,195
  5,340
  5,501
  5,677
  5,869
  6,077
  6,301
  6,541
  6,757
  7,031
  7,323
  7,633
  7,962
  8,311
  8,681
  9,071
  9,484
  9,920
  10,380
  10,864
  11,376
  11,914
  12,481
  13,079
  13,707
  14,369
  15,064
  15,796
Operating income, $m
  1,464
  1,498
  1,538
  1,582
  1,632
  1,686
  1,744
  1,808
  1,877
  1,950
  2,070
  2,154
  2,244
  2,339
  2,440
  2,547
  2,660
  2,779
  2,906
  3,039
  3,180
  3,329
  3,485
  3,650
  3,824
  4,007
  4,200
  4,402
  4,616
  4,840
EBITDA, $m
  2,455
  2,511
  2,576
  2,648
  2,728
  2,816
  2,912
  3,016
  3,128
  3,248
  3,377
  3,514
  3,659
  3,815
  3,979
  4,153
  4,338
  4,533
  4,740
  4,957
  5,187
  5,429
  5,685
  5,954
  6,237
  6,536
  6,850
  7,181
  7,528
  7,894
Interest expense (income), $m
  358
  488
  510
  535
  564
  596
  631
  670
  712
  758
  807
  860
  916
  976
  1,041
  1,109
  1,181
  1,258
  1,339
  1,425
  1,516
  1,612
  1,713
  1,819
  1,932
  2,050
  2,175
  2,306
  2,444
  2,590
  2,743
Earnings before tax, $m
  976
  988
  1,003
  1,019
  1,036
  1,055
  1,075
  1,096
  1,119
  1,144
  1,211
  1,238
  1,267
  1,298
  1,331
  1,365
  1,402
  1,440
  1,481
  1,524
  1,569
  1,616
  1,666
  1,719
  1,774
  1,832
  1,894
  1,958
  2,026
  2,097
Tax expense, $m
  263
  267
  271
  275
  280
  285
  290
  296
  302
  309
  327
  334
  342
  351
  359
  369
  378
  389
  400
  411
  424
  436
  450
  464
  479
  495
  511
  529
  547
  566
Net income, $m
  712
  721
  732
  744
  756
  770
  785
  800
  817
  835
  884
  904
  925
  948
  972
  997
  1,023
  1,051
  1,081
  1,112
  1,145
  1,180
  1,216
  1,255
  1,295
  1,338
  1,382
  1,429
  1,479
  1,531

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  27,778
  28,417
  29,148
  29,968
  30,876
  31,873
  32,958
  34,133
  35,399
  36,758
  38,211
  39,762
  41,413
  43,168
  45,030
  47,004
  49,093
  51,302
  53,636
  56,100
  58,700
  61,443
  64,333
  67,379
  70,587
  73,964
  77,519
  81,260
  85,195
  89,334
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  27,778
  28,417
  29,148
  29,968
  30,876
  31,873
  32,958
  34,133
  35,399
  36,758
  38,211
  39,762
  41,413
  43,168
  45,030
  47,004
  49,093
  51,302
  53,636
  56,100
  58,700
  61,443
  64,333
  67,379
  70,587
  73,964
  77,519
  81,260
  85,195
  89,334
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
Average production assets, $m
  22,793
  23,317
  23,916
  24,589
  25,334
  26,152
  27,043
  28,007
  29,046
  30,160
  31,353
  32,625
  33,980
  35,420
  36,948
  38,567
  40,281
  42,094
  44,009
  46,031
  48,164
  50,415
  52,786
  55,285
  57,917
  60,688
  63,605
  66,674
  69,904
  73,300
Working capital, $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total debt, $m
  9,452
  9,912
  10,438
  11,029
  11,683
  12,401
  13,182
  14,028
  14,940
  15,918
  16,964
  18,081
  19,270
  20,533
  21,874
  23,295
  24,799
  26,389
  28,070
  29,844
  31,716
  33,691
  35,772
  37,965
  40,274
  42,706
  45,266
  47,959
  50,792
  53,773
Total liabilities, $m
  20,000
  20,460
  20,986
  21,577
  22,231
  22,949
  23,730
  24,576
  25,488
  26,466
  27,512
  28,629
  29,818
  31,081
  32,422
  33,843
  35,347
  36,937
  38,618
  40,392
  42,264
  44,239
  46,320
  48,513
  50,822
  53,254
  55,814
  58,507
  61,340
  64,321
Total equity, $m
  7,778
  7,957
  8,161
  8,391
  8,645
  8,924
  9,228
  9,557
  9,912
  10,292
  10,699
  11,133
  11,596
  12,087
  12,608
  13,161
  13,746
  14,364
  15,018
  15,708
  16,436
  17,204
  18,013
  18,866
  19,764
  20,710
  21,705
  22,753
  23,855
  25,014
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  27,778
  28,417
  29,147
  29,968
  30,876
  31,873
  32,958
  34,133
  35,400
  36,758
  38,211
  39,762
  41,414
  43,168
  45,030
  47,004
  49,093
  51,301
  53,636
  56,100
  58,700
  61,443
  64,333
  67,379
  70,586
  73,964
  77,519
  81,260
  85,195
  89,335
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.350
  1.390
  1.430
  1.470
  1.510
  1.550
  1.590
  1.620
  1.660
  1.700
  1.730
  1.770
  1.800
  1.840
  1.870
  1.900
  1.930
  1.960
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  712
  721
  732
  744
  756
  770
  785
  800
  817
  835
  884
  904
  925
  948
  972
  997
  1,023
  1,051
  1,081
  1,112
  1,145
  1,180
  1,216
  1,255
  1,295
  1,338
  1,382
  1,429
  1,479
  1,531
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  991
  1,013
  1,038
  1,066
  1,097
  1,131
  1,168
  1,208
  1,251
  1,298
  1,306
  1,359
  1,416
  1,476
  1,539
  1,607
  1,678
  1,754
  1,834
  1,918
  2,007
  2,101
  2,199
  2,304
  2,413
  2,529
  2,650
  2,778
  2,913
  3,054
Funds from operations, $m
  1,703
  1,734
  1,770
  1,809
  1,853
  1,901
  1,953
  2,008
  2,068
  2,133
  2,190
  2,263
  2,341
  2,423
  2,511
  2,604
  2,702
  2,805
  2,915
  3,030
  3,152
  3,280
  3,416
  3,558
  3,708
  3,866
  4,033
  4,207
  4,392
  4,585
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  1,703
  1,734
  1,769
  1,809
  1,853
  1,901
  1,952
  2,008
  2,068
  2,132
  2,190
  2,263
  2,341
  2,423
  2,511
  2,603
  2,701
  2,805
  2,914
  3,030
  3,151
  3,280
  3,415
  3,558
  3,708
  3,866
  4,032
  4,207
  4,391
  4,584
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -931
  -950
  -972
  -997
  -1,025
  -1,056
  -1,090
  -1,127
  -1,167
  -1,210
  -1,257
  -1,306
  -1,359
  -1,416
  -1,476
  -1,539
  -1,607
  -1,678
  -1,754
  -1,834
  -1,918
  -2,007
  -2,101
  -2,199
  -2,304
  -2,413
  -2,529
  -2,650
  -2,778
  -2,913
New CAPEX, $m
  -449
  -524
  -599
  -673
  -745
  -818
  -891
  -964
  -1,039
  -1,115
  -1,193
  -1,272
  -1,355
  -1,440
  -1,528
  -1,619
  -1,714
  -1,813
  -1,915
  -2,022
  -2,134
  -2,250
  -2,372
  -2,499
  -2,632
  -2,771
  -2,917
  -3,069
  -3,229
  -3,396
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,380
  -1,474
  -1,571
  -1,670
  -1,770
  -1,874
  -1,981
  -2,091
  -2,206
  -2,325
  -2,450
  -2,578
  -2,714
  -2,856
  -3,004
  -3,158
  -3,321
  -3,491
  -3,669
  -3,856
  -4,052
  -4,257
  -4,473
  -4,698
  -4,936
  -5,184
  -5,446
  -5,719
  -6,007
  -6,309
Free cash flow, $m
  323
  260
  199
  140
  83
  27
  -28
  -83
  -138
  -193
  -259
  -316
  -374
  -433
  -493
  -555
  -620
  -686
  -755
  -826
  -900
  -977
  -1,057
  -1,141
  -1,228
  -1,319
  -1,414
  -1,513
  -1,617
  -1,725
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  416
  460
  526
  590
  654
  718
  782
  846
  911
  978
  1,046
  1,117
  1,189
  1,264
  1,341
  1,421
  1,504
  1,590
  1,681
  1,774
  1,872
  1,974
  2,081
  2,193
  2,310
  2,432
  2,559
  2,693
  2,833
  2,980
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  416
  460
  526
  590
  654
  718
  782
  846
  911
  978
  1,046
  1,117
  1,189
  1,264
  1,341
  1,421
  1,504
  1,590
  1,681
  1,774
  1,872
  1,974
  2,081
  2,193
  2,310
  2,432
  2,559
  2,693
  2,833
  2,980
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  740
  720
  725
  730
  737
  745
  754
  763
  774
  786
  787
  801
  815
  831
  848
  865
  884
  904
  926
  948
  972
  997
  1,024
  1,052
  1,082
  1,113
  1,146
  1,180
  1,217
  1,255
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -147
  -179
  -204
  -230
  -254
  -279
  -304
  -329
  -354
  -380
  -407
  -434
  -462
  -491
  -521
  -553
  -585
  -619
  -654
  -690
  -728
  -768
  -809
  -853
  -898
  -946
  -995
  -1,047
  -1,102
  -1,159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  593
  541
  520
  501
  483
  466
  450
  434
  419
  405
  380
  366
  353
  340
  326
  313
  299
  286
  272
  258
  244
  229
  214
  199
  183
  167
  150
  133
  115
  96
Discount rate, %
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  550
  463
  407
  356
  309
  265
  226
  191
  159
  131
  104
  83
  66
  51
  39
  29
  21
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ameren Corporation is a utility holding company. The Company's subsidiaries include Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois and Ameren Transmission Company (ATXI). It operates through four segments. The Ameren Missouri segment includes all of the operations of Ameren Missouri. The Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment consists of the electric distribution business of Ameren Illinois. The Ameren Illinois Natural Gas segment consists of the natural gas business of Ameren Illinois. The ATXI segment consists of the aggregated electric transmission businesses of Ameren Illinois and ATXI. Ameren Missouri operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. Ameren Illinois operates rate-regulated electric distribution, electric transmission and natural gas distribution businesses in Illinois. ATXI operates a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rate-regulated electric transmission business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.8
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -2348.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 92.8%
Total Debt to Equity 110.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 36.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Operating Margin 22.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Net Profit Margin 10.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 63.7%

AEE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6291 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ameren Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ameren Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for AEE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ameren Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ameren Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ameren Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ameren Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEE are equal to 355.2%.

Life of production assets of 24 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ameren Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEE is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7631 million for Ameren Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 244.660 million for Ameren Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ameren Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.9 billion.

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