Intrinsic value of Ameren - AEE

Management's discussion and analysis

Ameren, headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a public utility holding company under PUHCA 2005. Ameren’s primary assets are its equity interests in its subsidiaries, including Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois, and ATXI. Ameren’s subsidiaries are separate, independent legal entities with separate businesses, assets, and liabilities. Dividends on Ameren’s common stock and the payment of expenses by Ameren depend on distributions made to it by its subsidiaries.

Below is a summary description of Ameren's principal subsidiaries. Ameren also has various other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as the provision of shared services. A more detailed description can be found in Note 1 – Summary of Significant Accounting Policies under Part II, Item 8, of this report.

Unless otherwise stated, the following sections of Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations exclude discontinued operations for all periods presented. See Note 1 – Summary of Significant Accounting Policies under Part II, Item 8, of this report for additional information regarding that presentation.

Ameren's financial statements are prepared on a consolidated basis and therefore include the accounts of its majority-owned subsidiaries. All intercompany transactions have been eliminated. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois have no subsidiaries. All tabular dollar amounts are in millions, unless otherwise indicated.

In addition to presenting results of operations and earnings amounts in total, we present certain information in cents per share. These amounts reflect factors that directly affect Ameren’s earnings. We believe this per share information helps readers to understand the impact of these factors on Ameren’s earnings per share. All references in this report to earnings per share are based on average diluted common shares outstanding for the relevant period.

OVERVIEW

Ameren’s strategic plan includes investing in and operating its utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks, enhancing those frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies, as well as creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of 

its customers and shareholders. In 2016, Ameren successfully executed its strategy. Ameren continued to allocate significant amounts of capital to those businesses that are supported by constructive regulatory frameworks. In 2016, Ameren invested $1.3 billion of capital expenditures in its FERC rate-regulated electric transmission and Illinois electric and natural gas distribution businesses.

In 2016, Ameren continued to work to enhance its regulatory frameworks and advocate for responsible energy and economic policies and to create and capitalize on opportunities for investment for the benefit of its customers and shareholders. Ameren Illinois successfully advocated for the FEJA, which improved the constructive regulatory framework for Ameren Illinois' electric distribution business. The FEJA revised certain portions of the IEIMA, including extending the IEIMA formula ratemaking process through 2022. Also, beginning in 2017, the FEJA decouples electric distribution revenues established in a rate proceeding from actual sales volumes by providing that any revenue changes driven by actual electric distribution sales volumes differing from sales volumes reflected in that year's rates will be collected from or refunded to customers within two years. This portion of the law extends beyond the end of the IEIMA in 2022. Further, beginning as early as June 2017, the FEJA will allow Ameren Illinois to capitalize as a regulatory asset and earn a return on its electric energy efficiency investments.

In July 2016, Ameren Missouri filed a request with the MoPSC seeking approval to increase its annual revenues for electric service. Relating to that request, in February 2017, Ameren Missouri, the MoPSC staff, the MoOPC, and all intervenors filed a unanimous stipulation and agreement with the MoPSC. The stipulation and agreement, which is subject to MoPSC approval, would result in a $3.4 billion revenue requirement, which is a $92 million increase in Ameren Missouri’s annual revenue requirement for electric service compared to its prior revenue requirement established in the MoPSC's April 2015 electric rate order. The stipulation and agreement did not specify the common equity percentage, the rate base, or the allowed return on common equity. The new revenue requirement reflects the current actual sales volumes of the New Madrid Smelter, whose operations remain suspended, as well as other agreed upon sales volumes. Excluding cost reductions associated with reduced sales volumes, the base level of net energy costs under the stipulation and agreement would decrease by $54 million from the base level established in the MoPSC's April 2015 electric rate order. Changes in amortizations and the base level of expenses for the other regulatory tracking mechanisms, including extending the amortization period of certain regulatory assets, would reduce expenses by $26 million from the base levels established in the MoPSC's April 2015 electric rate order. The stipulation and agreement contemplates that new rates will become effective on or before March 20, 2017.

Related to ATXI's and Ameren Illinois' FERC rate-regulated transmission businesses, in September 2016, the FERC issued a final order in the November 2013 complaint case which lowered the total allowed return on common equity to 10.82%. The new 

allowed return on common equity has been reflected in rates prospectively from the September 2016 effective date of the order. The FERC is expected to issue a final order in the February 2015 complaint case in the second quarter of 2017. That final order will determine the allowed return on common equity for the 15-month period ended May 2016. That final order will also establish the allowed return on common equity that will apply prospectively from its expected second quarter 2017 effective date, replacing the current 10.82% total return on common equity, which became effective in September 2016.

In October 2016, Ameren’s board of directors increased the quarterly common stock dividend to 44 cents per share, resulting in an annualized equivalent dividend rate of $1.76 per share.

Earnings

Net income attributable to Ameren common shareholders from continuing operations was $653 million, or $2.68 per diluted share, for 2016, and $579 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, for 2015. These earnings were favorably affected in 2016, compared with 2015, by increased Ameren Transmission and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings, reflecting Ameren’s strategy to allocate incremental capital to those businesses, increased demand due to warmer summer temperatures, higher natural gas distribution rates at Ameren Illinois pursuant to a December 2015 order, and decreased other operations and maintenance expenses. Net income was also favorably affected in 2016, compared with 2015, by an income tax benefit recorded in 2016 at Ameren (parent) pursuant to the adoption of new accounting guidance related to share-based compensation, as well as the absence of a provision recognized in 2015 as a result of Ameren Missouri’s discontinued efforts to license and build a second nuclear unit at its existing Callaway energy center site. Net income was unfavorably affected in 2016, compared with 2015, by the absence in 2016 of MEEIA 2013 net shared benefits, partially offset by the recognition of a MEEIA 2013 performance incentive, decreased Ameren Missouri sales to the New Madrid Smelter resulting from a reduction in operations at that plant, and the cost of the Callaway energy center’s scheduled refueling and maintenance outage. Additionally, earnings were unfavorably affected in 2016, compared with 2015, by increased depreciation and amortization expenses at Ameren Missouri, the absence in 2016 of a January 2015 ICC order regarding Ameren Illinois’ cumulative power usage cost and its purchased power rider mechanism, and decreased Ameren Missouri electric margins resulting from increased transmission charges, net of transmission revenues.

Liquidity

At December 31, 2016, Ameren, on a consolidated basis, had available liquidity in the form of amounts available under credit agreements of $1.5 billion.

Capital Expenditures

In 2016, Ameren continued to make significant investment in its utility businesses by making capital expenditures of $0.7 billion, $0.5 billion, $0.2 billion, and $0.7 billion in Ameren 

Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission, respectively. For 2017 through 2021, Ameren's cumulative capital expenditures are projected to range from $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion. The projected spending by segment includes up to $4.2 billion, $2.6 billion, $1.5 billion, and $2.9 billion for Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission, respectively.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Our results of operations and financial position are affected by many factors. Weather, economic conditions, energy efficiency investments by our customers and us, and the actions of key customers can significantly affect the demand for our services. Our results are also affected by seasonal fluctuations in winter heating and summer cooling demands. Ameren and Ameren Missouri are also affected by nuclear refueling and other energy center maintenance outages. Additionally, fluctuations in interest rates and conditions in the capital and credit markets affect our cost of borrowing and our pension and postretirement benefits costs. Almost all of Ameren’s revenues are subject to state or federal regulation. This regulation has a material impact on the prices we charge for our services. Our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity are affected by our ability to align our overall spending, both operating and capital, with regulatory frameworks established by our regulators.

Ameren Missouri principally uses coal, nuclear fuel, and natural gas for fuel in its electric operations and purchases natural gas for its customers. Ameren Illinois purchases power and natural gas for its customers. The prices for these commodities can fluctuate significantly because of the global economic and political environment, weather, supply, demand, and many other factors. We have natural gas cost recovery mechanisms for our Illinois and Missouri natural gas distribution service businesses, a purchased power cost recovery mechanism for Ameren Illinois' electric distribution service business, and a FAC for Ameren Missouri's electric utility business.

Ameren Illinois' electric distribution service utility business, pursuant to the IEIMA, conducts an annual reconciliation of the revenue requirement necessary to reflect the actual costs incurred in a given year with the revenue requirement included in customer rates for that year. Recoveries from or refunds to customers occur in a subsequent year. Included in Ameren Illinois' revenue requirement reconciliation is a formula for the return on equity, which is equal to the average of the monthly yields of 30-year United States Treasury bonds plus 580 basis points. Therefore, Ameren Illinois' annual return on equity is directly correlated to yields on United States Treasury bonds. Ameren Illinois and ATXI use a company-specific, forward-looking rate formula framework in setting their transmission rates. These rates are updated each January with forecasted information. A reconciliation during the year, which adjusts for the actual revenue requirement and actual sales volumes, is used to adjust billing rates in a subsequent year.

Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s electric transmission service businesses and Ameren Illinois’ electric distribution service business operate under formula ratemaking designed to provide for the recovery of actual costs of service that are prudently incurred as well as a return on equity. Although rate-regulated, Ameren Illinois’ natural gas business and Ameren Missouri do not operate under formula ratemaking. Ameren (parent) is not rate-regulated.

We employ various risk management strategies to reduce our exposure to commodity risk and other risks inherent in our business. The reliability of Ameren Missouri's energy centers and our transmission and distribution systems and the level of purchased power costs, operations and maintenance costs, and capital investment are key factors that we seek to manage in order to optimize our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity.

During the fourth quarter of 2016, the Ameren Companies changed the manner in which performance is assessed and resources are allocated, driven by increasing investment in FERC-regulated electric transmission and Ameren Illinois electric distribution and natural gas distribution businesses, as well as the unique regulatory environment for each jurisdiction. Ameren now has four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission, which primarily includes Ameren Illinois Transmission and ATXI. Ameren Missouri has one segment, which includes all of the operations of Ameren Missouri. Ameren Illinois has three segments: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Illinois Transmission. Prior-period presentation has been adjusted for comparative purposes. See Note 16 – Segment Information under Part II, Item 8, of this report for further discussion of Ameren’s, Ameren Missouri's, and Ameren Illinois' segments.

Earnings Summary

The following table presents a summary of Ameren's earnings for the years ended December 31, 2016, 2015, and 2014:

2016 versus 2015

Net income attributable to Ameren common shareholders from continuing operations in 2016 increased $74 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, from 2015. The increase was due to net income increases of $34 million, $22 million, $5 million, and $3 million at Ameren Transmission, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, Ameren Missouri, and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution,

respectively. Additionally, the net loss from other businesses, primarily Ameren (parent), and intersegment eliminations decreased $10 million.

In 2015, net income attributable to Ameren common shareholders from discontinued operations was favorably affected by the recognition of a tax benefit resulting from the removal of a reserve for unrecognized tax benefits of $53 million recorded in 2013 related to the divestiture of New AER, based on the completion of the IRS audit of Ameren’s 2013 tax year.

Compared with 2015, 2016 earnings per share from continuing operations were favorably affected by:

Compared with 2015, 2016 earnings per share from continuing operations were unfavorably affected by:

The cents per share information presented above is based on the diluted average shares outstanding in 2015. Pretax amounts have been presented net of income taxes, using Ameren's 2015 statutory tax rate of 39%.

[Source: Form 10-K dated 2017-02-28]