Intrinsic value of Aegion - AEGN

Previous Close

$25.36

  Intrinsic Value

$17.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$25.36

 
Intrinsic value

$17.13

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  1,511
  1,671
  1,839
  2,014
  2,196
  2,386
  2,584
  2,790
  3,004
  3,227
  3,458
  3,698
  3,947
  4,207
  4,477
  4,758
  5,051
  5,355
  5,673
  6,004
  6,350
  6,710
  7,087
  7,480
  7,891
  8,321
  8,770
  9,240
  9,732
  10,247
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,443
  1,592
  1,747
  1,910
  2,080
  2,256
  2,440
  2,632
  2,830
  3,037
  3,212
  3,436
  3,667
  3,909
  4,160
  4,421
  4,692
  4,976
  5,271
  5,578
  5,899
  6,234
  6,584
  6,949
  7,331
  7,730
  8,148
  8,585
  9,042
  9,520
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,443
  1,592
  1,747
  1,910
  2,080
  2,256
  2,440
  2,632
  2,830
  3,037
  3,212
  3,436
  3,667
  3,909
  4,160
  4,421
  4,692
  4,976
  5,271
  5,578
  5,899
  6,234
  6,584
  6,949
  7,331
  7,730
  8,148
  8,585
  9,042
  9,520
Operating income, $m
  68
  79
  91
  104
  116
  130
  144
  159
  174
  190
  245
  262
  280
  298
  318
  337
  358
  380
  402
  426
  450
  476
  503
  530
  560
  590
  622
  655
  690
  727
EBITDA, $m
  171
  189
  208
  228
  249
  270
  293
  316
  340
  366
  392
  419
  447
  477
  507
  539
  572
  607
  643
  680
  720
  760
  803
  848
  894
  943
  994
  1,047
  1,103
  1,161
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
  412
  434
  456
  480
  504
Tax expense, $m
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  95
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
Net income, $m
  36
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,231
  1,361
  1,497
  1,640
  1,788
  1,943
  2,105
  2,272
  2,446
  2,627
  2,816
  3,011
  3,215
  3,426
  3,646
  3,875
  4,113
  4,361
  4,620
  4,889
  5,171
  5,464
  5,771
  6,091
  6,426
  6,776
  7,142
  7,524
  7,925
  8,344
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,231
  1,361
  1,497
  1,640
  1,788
  1,943
  2,105
  2,272
  2,446
  2,627
  2,816
  3,011
  3,215
  3,426
  3,646
  3,875
  4,113
  4,361
  4,620
  4,889
  5,171
  5,464
  5,771
  6,091
  6,426
  6,776
  7,142
  7,524
  7,925
  8,344
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.227
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
Average production assets, $m
  641
  709
  780
  854
  931
  1,012
  1,096
  1,183
  1,274
  1,368
  1,466
  1,568
  1,674
  1,784
  1,898
  2,017
  2,141
  2,271
  2,405
  2,546
  2,692
  2,845
  3,005
  3,171
  3,346
  3,528
  3,718
  3,918
  4,126
  4,345
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Total debt, $m
  413
  486
  561
  640
  722
  808
  898
  990
  1,087
  1,187
  1,292
  1,400
  1,513
  1,630
  1,751
  1,878
  2,010
  2,148
  2,291
  2,440
  2,596
  2,759
  2,929
  3,106
  3,292
  3,485
  3,688
  3,900
  4,122
  4,355
Total liabilities, $m
  682
  754
  829
  908
  991
  1,077
  1,166
  1,259
  1,355
  1,456
  1,560
  1,668
  1,781
  1,898
  2,020
  2,147
  2,279
  2,416
  2,559
  2,709
  2,865
  3,027
  3,197
  3,374
  3,560
  3,754
  3,956
  4,169
  4,390
  4,623
Total equity, $m
  549
  607
  668
  731
  798
  867
  939
  1,013
  1,091
  1,172
  1,256
  1,343
  1,434
  1,528
  1,626
  1,728
  1,834
  1,945
  2,060
  2,181
  2,306
  2,437
  2,574
  2,717
  2,866
  3,022
  3,185
  3,356
  3,535
  3,722
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,231
  1,361
  1,497
  1,639
  1,789
  1,944
  2,105
  2,272
  2,446
  2,628
  2,816
  3,011
  3,215
  3,426
  3,646
  3,875
  4,113
  4,361
  4,619
  4,890
  5,171
  5,464
  5,771
  6,091
  6,426
  6,776
  7,141
  7,525
  7,925
  8,345
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  0.800
  0.840
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  103
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  285
  300
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413
  434
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  222
  238
  254
  272
  279
  297
  317
  337
  357
  379
  402
  425
  450
  475
  502
  530
  559
  589
  621
  654
  688
  725
  763
  802
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  140
  152
  165
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  280
  299
  318
  338
  359
  380
  403
  427
  451
  477
  503
  531
  560
  591
  623
  656
  691
  727
  765
  805
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -413
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -199
  -209
  -218
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -162
  -174
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -277
  -292
  -309
  -326
  -343
  -362
  -381
  -401
  -422
  -445
  -467
  -491
  -517
  -544
  -571
  -601
  -631
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  19
  17
  13
  10
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  88
  89
  89
  89
  89
  89
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  105
  109
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  135
  143
  151
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  406
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
Cash available for distribution, $m
  51
  51
  52
  52
  53
  53
  55
  60
  65
  71
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
Discount rate, %
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  48
  46
  44
  41
  39
  36
  34
  34
  33
  32
  26
  25
  23
  21
  20
  18
  15
  13
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.8
  96.1
  94.8
  94.0
  93.5
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3
  93.3

Aegion Corporation (Aegion) is engaged in providing infrastructure protection and maintenance. The Company operates through three segments: Infrastructure Solutions, Corrosion Protection and Energy Services. The Company offers service solutions, including rehabilitation of water and wastewater pipelines with Insituform cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) products; fusible polyvinyl chloride products for rehabilitation; fiber reinforced polymer systems for rehabilitation and strengthening; cathodic protection for corrosion engineering control and infrastructure rehabilitation; pipe coatings for corrosion control and prevention; high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe lining for corrosion control, abrasion protection and pipeline rehabilitation, and construction and maintenance of oil and gas facilities. The Company's Insituform CIPP Process for the rehabilitation of sewers, pipelines and other conduits utilizes a custom-manufactured tube, or liner, made of synthetic fiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegion (AEGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 65.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 17.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 309.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1359 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegion. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Aegion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for AEGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Aegion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEGN stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEGN are equal to 42.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEGN is equal to -0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $494 million for Aegion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33 million for Aegion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Aegion Corporation (NASDAQ:AEGN) Could Be A Buy   [Jun-26-18 02:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Aegion: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion Corporation Announces Management Transitions   [Apr-18-18 08:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Aegion Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-01-18 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Aegion reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 07:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion Corporation Announces CFO Transition   [Nov-20-17 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-03-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion reports 3Q loss   [05:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 09:46AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 18th   [Oct-18-17 10:44AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:AEGN) : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 04:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Aegion misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
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