Intrinsic value of Aegion - AEGN

Previous Close

$25.81

  Intrinsic Value

$13.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-48%

Previous close

$25.81

 
Intrinsic value

$13.50

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.40
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  1,222
  1,353
  1,490
  1,633
  1,783
  1,938
  2,101
  2,269
  2,445
  2,627
  2,816
  3,013
  3,217
  3,430
  3,651
  3,881
  4,121
  4,371
  4,631
  4,902
  5,185
  5,480
  5,788
  6,110
  6,446
  6,798
  7,166
  7,550
  7,953
  8,374
  8,815
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,329
  1,461
  1,599
  1,742
  1,892
  2,048
  2,210
  2,378
  2,553
  2,735
  2,894
  3,090
  3,295
  3,507
  3,728
  3,958
  4,198
  4,448
  4,708
  4,980
  5,264
  5,560
  5,869
  6,192
  6,530
  6,883
  7,252
  7,639
  8,044
  8,467
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,171
  1,329
  1,461
  1,599
  1,742
  1,892
  2,048
  2,210
  2,378
  2,553
  2,735
  2,894
  3,090
  3,295
  3,507
  3,728
  3,958
  4,198
  4,448
  4,708
  4,980
  5,264
  5,560
  5,869
  6,192
  6,530
  6,883
  7,252
  7,639
  8,044
  8,467
Operating income, $m
  51
  23
  29
  35
  40
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  172
  183
  193
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
EBITDA, $m
  98
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  123
  132
  143
  153
  164
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  302
  320
  338
  356
  376
  397
  418
  440
  464
  488
  514
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  12
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  11
  14
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
  212
Tax expense, $m
  6
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Net income, $m
  29
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,194
  1,178
  1,298
  1,423
  1,553
  1,688
  1,830
  1,977
  2,129
  2,288
  2,453
  2,624
  2,803
  2,988
  3,180
  3,381
  3,590
  3,807
  4,034
  4,270
  4,516
  4,773
  5,042
  5,322
  5,615
  5,921
  6,242
  6,577
  6,927
  7,295
  7,679
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,064
  1,178
  1,298
  1,423
  1,553
  1,688
  1,830
  1,977
  2,129
  2,288
  2,453
  2,624
  2,803
  2,988
  3,180
  3,381
  3,590
  3,807
  4,034
  4,270
  4,516
  4,773
  5,042
  5,322
  5,615
  5,921
  6,242
  6,577
  6,927
  7,295
  7,679
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.148
  1.149
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
Average production assets, $m
  263
  291
  320
  351
  383
  417
  452
  488
  526
  565
  605
  648
  692
  737
  785
  834
  886
  940
  996
  1,054
  1,115
  1,178
  1,244
  1,314
  1,386
  1,462
  1,541
  1,623
  1,710
  1,800
  1,895
Working capital, $m
  301
  211
  232
  255
  278
  302
  328
  354
  381
  410
  439
  470
  502
  535
  570
  605
  643
  682
  722
  765
  809
  855
  903
  953
  1,006
  1,060
  1,118
  1,178
  1,241
  1,306
  1,375
Total debt, $m
  371
  416
  484
  555
  630
  707
  787
  871
  958
  1,048
  1,142
  1,239
  1,341
  1,446
  1,556
  1,670
  1,789
  1,912
  2,041
  2,176
  2,316
  2,462
  2,615
  2,774
  2,941
  3,115
  3,298
  3,488
  3,688
  3,897
  4,115
Total liabilities, $m
  625
  670
  738
  809
  884
  961
  1,041
  1,125
  1,212
  1,302
  1,396
  1,493
  1,595
  1,700
  1,810
  1,924
  2,043
  2,166
  2,295
  2,430
  2,570
  2,716
  2,869
  3,028
  3,195
  3,369
  3,552
  3,742
  3,942
  4,151
  4,369
Total equity, $m
  569
  508
  559
  613
  669
  728
  789
  852
  918
  986
  1,057
  1,131
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,457
  1,547
  1,641
  1,739
  1,840
  1,946
  2,057
  2,173
  2,294
  2,420
  2,552
  2,690
  2,835
  2,986
  3,144
  3,310
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,194
  1,178
  1,297
  1,422
  1,553
  1,689
  1,830
  1,977
  2,130
  2,288
  2,453
  2,624
  2,803
  2,988
  3,181
  3,381
  3,590
  3,807
  4,034
  4,270
  4,516
  4,773
  5,042
  5,322
  5,615
  5,921
  6,242
  6,577
  6,928
  7,295
  7,679
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.652
  0.820
  0.870
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  55
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  64
  68
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  114
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  84
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  40
  40
  39
  39
  39
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  120
  124
  126
  129
  133
  114
  117
  120
  125
  128
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  165
  172
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -82
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  50
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  151
  44
  42
  40
  38
  36
  33
  31
  28
  26
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.4
  89.5
  85.3
  81.6
  78.4
  75.6
  73.1
  70.9
  69.0
  67.2
  66.5
  65.9
  65.3
  64.8
  64.4
  64.0
  63.6
  63.3
  62.9
  62.7
  62.4
  62.2
  61.9
  61.7
  61.5
  61.4
  61.2
  61.0
  60.9
  60.7

Aegion Corporation (Aegion) is engaged in providing infrastructure protection and maintenance. The Company operates through three segments: Infrastructure Solutions, Corrosion Protection and Energy Services. The Company offers service solutions, including rehabilitation of water and wastewater pipelines with Insituform cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) products; fusible polyvinyl chloride products for rehabilitation; fiber reinforced polymer systems for rehabilitation and strengthening; cathodic protection for corrosion engineering control and infrastructure rehabilitation; pipe coatings for corrosion control and prevention; high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe lining for corrosion control, abrasion protection and pipeline rehabilitation, and construction and maintenance of oil and gas facilities. The Company's Insituform CIPP Process for the rehabilitation of sewers, pipelines and other conduits utilizes a custom-manufactured tube, or liner, made of synthetic fiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegion (AEGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 65.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 17.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 309.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1222 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegion. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aegion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for AEGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Aegion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEGN are equal to 21.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEGN is equal to 15.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $569 million for Aegion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.757 million for Aegion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Aegion Corporation Announces CFO Transition   [Nov-20-17 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-03-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion reports 3Q loss   [05:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 09:46AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 18th   [Oct-18-17 10:44AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:AEGN) : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 04:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Aegion misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion beats 4Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Aegion Corp (AEGN) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 03:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of AEGN
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