Intrinsic value of Aegion - AEGN

Previous Close

$19.02

  Intrinsic Value

$16.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$19.02

 
Intrinsic value

$16.03

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,386
  1,418
  1,455
  1,495
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,703
  1,766
  1,834
  1,907
  1,984
  2,067
  2,154
  2,247
  2,346
  2,450
  2,560
  2,677
  2,800
  2,929
  3,066
  3,210
  3,362
  3,522
  3,691
  3,868
  4,055
  4,251
  4,458
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,327
  1,357
  1,391
  1,429
  1,471
  1,517
  1,567
  1,622
  1,681
  1,744
  1,772
  1,843
  1,920
  2,001
  2,088
  2,179
  2,276
  2,378
  2,487
  2,601
  2,722
  2,849
  2,983
  3,124
  3,273
  3,429
  3,594
  3,767
  3,950
  4,142
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,327
  1,357
  1,391
  1,429
  1,471
  1,517
  1,567
  1,622
  1,681
  1,744
  1,772
  1,843
  1,920
  2,001
  2,088
  2,179
  2,276
  2,378
  2,487
  2,601
  2,722
  2,849
  2,983
  3,124
  3,273
  3,429
  3,594
  3,767
  3,950
  4,142
Operating income, $m
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
EBITDA, $m
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
Tax expense, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
Net income, $m
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,129
  1,155
  1,184
  1,218
  1,255
  1,295
  1,339
  1,387
  1,439
  1,494
  1,553
  1,616
  1,683
  1,754
  1,830
  1,910
  1,995
  2,085
  2,180
  2,280
  2,385
  2,497
  2,614
  2,738
  2,868
  3,006
  3,150
  3,302
  3,462
  3,630
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,129
  1,155
  1,184
  1,218
  1,255
  1,295
  1,339
  1,387
  1,439
  1,494
  1,553
  1,616
  1,683
  1,754
  1,830
  1,910
  1,995
  2,085
  2,180
  2,280
  2,385
  2,497
  2,614
  2,738
  2,868
  3,006
  3,150
  3,302
  3,462
  3,630
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.228
  1.228
  1.229
  1.227
  1.228
  1.229
  1.229
  1.228
  1.227
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
Average production assets, $m
  362
  370
  380
  390
  402
  415
  429
  445
  461
  479
  498
  518
  539
  562
  586
  612
  639
  668
  699
  731
  765
  800
  838
  878
  919
  963
  1,010
  1,058
  1,110
  1,164
Working capital, $m
  250
  255
  262
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
  552
  578
  605
  634
  664
  696
  730
  765
  802
Total debt, $m
  357
  372
  388
  407
  427
  449
  474
  500
  529
  559
  592
  627
  664
  704
  746
  790
  837
  887
  939
  995
  1,053
  1,115
  1,180
  1,249
  1,321
  1,397
  1,477
  1,561
  1,650
  1,743
Total liabilities, $m
  625
  640
  656
  675
  695
  718
  742
  768
  797
  828
  860
  895
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,263
  1,322
  1,383
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,918
  2,011
Total equity, $m
  503
  515
  528
  543
  560
  578
  597
  619
  642
  666
  693
  721
  751
  782
  816
  852
  890
  930
  972
  1,017
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,279
  1,341
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
  1,619
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,128
  1,155
  1,184
  1,218
  1,255
  1,296
  1,339
  1,387
  1,439
  1,494
  1,553
  1,616
  1,683
  1,754
  1,830
  1,910
  1,995
  2,085
  2,179
  2,280
  2,386
  2,497
  2,614
  2,738
  2,868
  3,006
  3,150
  3,302
  3,462
  3,630
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  68
  69
  69
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  76
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
Funds from operations, $m
  97
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  92
  93
  94
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -132
  -139
Free cash flow, $m
  57
  57
  56
  56
  55
  55
  55
  55
  56
  56
  46
  47
  48
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  61
  59
  59
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  61
  62
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  57
  53
  49
  46
  43
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Aegion Corporation (Aegion) is engaged in providing infrastructure protection and maintenance. The Company operates through three segments: Infrastructure Solutions, Corrosion Protection and Energy Services. The Company offers service solutions, including rehabilitation of water and wastewater pipelines with Insituform cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) products; fusible polyvinyl chloride products for rehabilitation; fiber reinforced polymer systems for rehabilitation and strengthening; cathodic protection for corrosion engineering control and infrastructure rehabilitation; pipe coatings for corrosion control and prevention; high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe lining for corrosion control, abrasion protection and pipeline rehabilitation, and construction and maintenance of oil and gas facilities. The Company's Insituform CIPP Process for the rehabilitation of sewers, pipelines and other conduits utilizes a custom-manufactured tube, or liner, made of synthetic fiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegion (AEGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 65.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 17.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 309.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1359.019 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegion. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Aegion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for AEGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Aegion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEGN are equal to 26.1%.

Life of production assets of 13 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEGN is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $494.246 million for Aegion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.963 million for Aegion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 5th   [Nov-05-18 07:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Aegion: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ What Type Of Shareholder Owns Aegean Airlines SAs (ATH:AEGN)?   [Oct-29-18 06:14AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ What is Behind Aegean Airlines SAs (ATH:AEGN) Superior ROE?   [Oct-06-18 04:53AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ [$$] Altamont Buys Aegion's Bayou Pipe Coating and Insulation Business   [Sep-04-18 01:29PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Aegion: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Aegion Corporation (NASDAQ:AEGN) Could Be A Buy   [Jun-26-18 02:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Aegion: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion Corporation Announces Management Transitions   [Apr-18-18 08:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Aegion Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-01-18 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Aegion reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 07:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion Corporation Announces CFO Transition   [Nov-20-17 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-03-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion reports 3Q loss   [05:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 09:46AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 18th   [Oct-18-17 10:44AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:AEGN) : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 04:05PM  Capital Cube]

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