Intrinsic value of Aegion - AEGN

Previous Close

$22.59

  Intrinsic Value

$15.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

  Value-price divergence*

+66%

Previous close

$22.59

 
Intrinsic value

$15.08

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+66%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.40
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  1,222
  1,452
  1,705
  1,980
  2,279
  2,599
  2,941
  3,303
  3,687
  4,090
  4,513
  4,956
  5,418
  5,900
  6,402
  6,925
  7,467
  8,032
  8,618
  9,228
  9,861
  10,520
  11,204
  11,917
  12,658
  13,431
  14,235
  15,074
  15,949
  16,861
  17,814
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,424
  1,667
  1,932
  2,219
  2,526
  2,854
  3,203
  3,571
  3,958
  4,365
  4,760
  5,204
  5,667
  6,150
  6,651
  7,173
  7,715
  8,278
  8,863
  9,472
  10,104
  10,762
  11,447
  12,159
  12,901
  13,673
  14,479
  15,319
  16,196
  17,111
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,171
  1,424
  1,667
  1,932
  2,219
  2,526
  2,854
  3,203
  3,571
  3,958
  4,365
  4,760
  5,204
  5,667
  6,150
  6,651
  7,173
  7,715
  8,278
  8,863
  9,472
  10,104
  10,762
  11,447
  12,159
  12,901
  13,673
  14,479
  15,319
  16,196
  17,111
Operating income, $m
  51
  27
  37
  48
  60
  73
  86
  100
  116
  132
  148
  196
  214
  233
  253
  273
  295
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  500
  530
  562
  595
  629
  665
  703
EBITDA, $m
  98
  85
  99
  116
  133
  152
  172
  193
  215
  239
  263
  289
  316
  344
  373
  404
  436
  468
  503
  538
  575
  614
  654
  695
  738
  783
  830
  879
  930
  983
  1,039
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  12
  16
  21
  25
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  130
  141
  151
  162
  174
  185
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  15
  21
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  196
  210
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
Tax expense, $m
  6
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  23
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
Net income, $m
  29
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  36
  43
  49
  56
  63
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  275
  290
  306

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,194
  1,265
  1,485
  1,725
  1,985
  2,264
  2,562
  2,877
  3,211
  3,563
  3,931
  4,317
  4,720
  5,140
  5,577
  6,032
  6,505
  6,996
  7,507
  8,038
  8,590
  9,163
  9,760
  10,381
  11,027
  11,699
  12,400
  13,131
  13,893
  14,688
  15,517
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,064
  1,265
  1,485
  1,725
  1,985
  2,264
  2,562
  2,877
  3,211
  3,563
  3,931
  4,317
  4,720
  5,140
  5,577
  6,032
  6,505
  6,996
  7,507
  8,038
  8,590
  9,163
  9,760
  10,381
  11,027
  11,699
  12,400
  13,131
  13,893
  14,688
  15,517
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
  1.148
Average production assets, $m
  263
  312
  366
  426
  490
  559
  632
  710
  793
  879
  970
  1,065
  1,165
  1,269
  1,376
  1,489
  1,606
  1,727
  1,853
  1,984
  2,120
  2,262
  2,409
  2,562
  2,722
  2,888
  3,061
  3,241
  3,429
  3,625
  3,830
Working capital, $m
  301
  226
  266
  309
  355
  405
  459
  515
  575
  638
  704
  773
  845
  920
  999
  1,080
  1,165
  1,253
  1,344
  1,440
  1,538
  1,641
  1,748
  1,859
  1,975
  2,095
  2,221
  2,352
  2,488
  2,630
  2,779
Total debt, $m
  371
  466
  591
  728
  875
  1,034
  1,204
  1,383
  1,573
  1,773
  1,983
  2,202
  2,432
  2,670
  2,919
  3,178
  3,447
  3,727
  4,018
  4,320
  4,634
  4,960
  5,299
  5,653
  6,020
  6,403
  6,802
  7,217
  7,651
  8,103
  8,575
Total liabilities, $m
  625
  720
  845
  982
  1,129
  1,288
  1,458
  1,637
  1,827
  2,027
  2,237
  2,456
  2,686
  2,924
  3,173
  3,432
  3,701
  3,981
  4,272
  4,574
  4,888
  5,214
  5,553
  5,907
  6,274
  6,657
  7,056
  7,471
  7,905
  8,357
  8,829
Total equity, $m
  569
  545
  640
  744
  855
  976
  1,104
  1,240
  1,384
  1,535
  1,694
  1,861
  2,034
  2,215
  2,404
  2,600
  2,804
  3,015
  3,236
  3,464
  3,702
  3,949
  4,207
  4,474
  4,752
  5,042
  5,344
  5,659
  5,988
  6,330
  6,688
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,194
  1,265
  1,485
  1,726
  1,984
  2,264
  2,562
  2,877
  3,211
  3,562
  3,931
  4,317
  4,720
  5,139
  5,577
  6,032
  6,505
  6,996
  7,508
  8,038
  8,590
  9,163
  9,760
  10,381
  11,026
  11,699
  12,400
  13,130
  13,893
  14,687
  15,517
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.652
  0.850
  0.920
  0.980
  1.020
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  36
  43
  49
  56
  63
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  275
  290
  306
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  151
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  301
  318
  336
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  68
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  163
  178
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  275
  295
  316
  337
  360
  383
  407
  433
  459
  486
  515
  545
  576
  608
  642
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  36
  39
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  32
  38
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  89
  100
  112
  117
  130
  144
  159
  174
  190
  207
  224
  242
  261
  280
  301
  322
  343
  366
  390
  414
  439
  466
  494
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -318
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -294
  -310
  -328
  -345
  -364
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -472
  -497
  -523
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -29
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  115
  125
  137
  148
  159
  169
  180
  190
  200
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  368
  383
  399
  416
  434
  452
  472
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  75
  80
  83
  87
  90
  92
  94
  95
  96
  96
  74
  74
  73
  72
  71
  70
  69
  67
  66
  64
  63
  61
  60
  58
  57
  56
  54
  53
  52
  51
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  190
  205
  220
  235
  249
  261
  274
  285
  296
  306
  293
  303
  312
  321
  330
  339
  349
  358
  368
  378
  389
  400
  413
  426
  440
  455
  470
  487
  504
  523
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -82
  150
  161
  173
  185
  196
  207
  218
  229
  239
  249
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  355
  370
  385
  401
  418
  435
  454
  474
  494
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -343
  -358
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  174
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  165
  59
  58
  57
  55
  53
  50
  47
  44
  41
  25
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.1
  80.4
  73.2
  67.4
  62.5
  58.4
  54.9
  51.9
  49.4
  47.2
  45.7
  44.4
  43.2
  42.2
  41.3
  40.5
  39.7
  39.1
  38.5
  38.0
  37.5
  37.1
  36.7
  36.3
  36.0
  35.7
  35.5
  35.2
  35.0
  34.8

Aegion Corporation (Aegion) is engaged in providing infrastructure protection and maintenance. The Company operates through three segments: Infrastructure Solutions, Corrosion Protection and Energy Services. The Company offers service solutions, including rehabilitation of water and wastewater pipelines with Insituform cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) products; fusible polyvinyl chloride products for rehabilitation; fiber reinforced polymer systems for rehabilitation and strengthening; cathodic protection for corrosion engineering control and infrastructure rehabilitation; pipe coatings for corrosion control and prevention; high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe lining for corrosion control, abrasion protection and pipeline rehabilitation, and construction and maintenance of oil and gas facilities. The Company's Insituform CIPP Process for the rehabilitation of sewers, pipelines and other conduits utilizes a custom-manufactured tube, or liner, made of synthetic fiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegion (AEGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 65.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 17.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 309.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1222 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegion. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aegion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for AEGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Aegion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEGN are equal to 21.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEGN is equal to 15.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $569 million for Aegion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.719 million for Aegion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 18th   [Oct-18-17 10:44AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aegion Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aegion Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:AEGN) : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 04:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Aegion misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aegion beats 4Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Aegion Corp (AEGN) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 03:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of AEGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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