Intrinsic value of Agnico-Eagle Mines - AEM

Previous Close

$44.36

  Intrinsic Value

$4.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

+21%

Previous close

$44.36

 
Intrinsic value

$4.05

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+21%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.71
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  2,138
  2,185
  2,239
  2,300
  2,368
  2,443
  2,525
  2,614
  2,710
  2,812
  2,922
  3,040
  3,165
  3,299
  3,440
  3,590
  3,749
  3,917
  4,094
  4,282
  4,480
  4,688
  4,909
  5,140
  5,385
  5,642
  5,913
  6,198
  6,497
  6,813
  7,144
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,009
  2,057
  2,111
  2,171
  2,238
  2,311
  2,389
  2,474
  2,565
  2,663
  2,698
  2,809
  2,927
  3,053
  3,186
  3,327
  3,476
  3,633
  3,800
  3,975
  4,161
  4,356
  4,562
  4,778
  5,007
  5,247
  5,500
  5,766
  6,046
  6,340
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,779
  2,009
  2,057
  2,111
  2,171
  2,238
  2,311
  2,389
  2,474
  2,565
  2,663
  2,698
  2,809
  2,927
  3,053
  3,186
  3,327
  3,476
  3,633
  3,800
  3,975
  4,161
  4,356
  4,562
  4,778
  5,007
  5,247
  5,500
  5,766
  6,046
  6,340
Operating income, $m
  360
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  247
  259
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  528
  553
  579
  606
  635
  666
  698
  732
  767
  804
EBITDA, $m
  973
  794
  814
  836
  861
  888
  918
  950
  985
  1,022
  1,062
  1,105
  1,151
  1,199
  1,251
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,488
  1,557
  1,629
  1,704
  1,784
  1,869
  1,958
  2,051
  2,150
  2,253
  2,362
  2,477
  2,597
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  86
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  227
  242
  257
  273
  290
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  223
  229
  236
  242
  249
  257
  265
  273
  282
  291
  301
  311
  322
  333
  345
  358
  371
  385
  399
  415
Tax expense, $m
  109
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  60
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
Net income, $m
  159
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  163
  167
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  641
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,108
  6,601
  6,765
  6,950
  7,155
  7,382
  7,629
  7,897
  8,186
  8,496
  8,829
  9,184
  9,563
  9,965
  10,393
  10,846
  11,326
  11,833
  12,370
  12,936
  13,534
  14,165
  14,829
  15,530
  16,268
  17,045
  17,863
  18,724
  19,629
  20,582
  21,584
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,467
  6,601
  6,765
  6,950
  7,155
  7,382
  7,629
  7,897
  8,186
  8,496
  8,829
  9,184
  9,563
  9,965
  10,393
  10,846
  11,326
  11,833
  12,370
  12,936
  13,534
  14,165
  14,829
  15,530
  16,268
  17,045
  17,863
  18,724
  19,629
  20,582
  21,584
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  5,098
  5,209
  5,338
  5,484
  5,646
  5,825
  6,020
  6,231
  6,459
  6,705
  6,967
  7,247
  7,546
  7,864
  8,201
  8,559
  8,937
  9,338
  9,761
  10,208
  10,680
  11,177
  11,702
  12,255
  12,837
  13,450
  14,096
  14,775
  15,490
  16,241
  17,032
Working capital, $m
  806
  306
  313
  322
  332
  342
  354
  366
  379
  394
  409
  426
  443
  462
  482
  503
  525
  548
  573
  599
  627
  656
  687
  720
  754
  790
  828
  868
  910
  954
  1,000
Total debt, $m
  1,208
  1,127
  1,190
  1,261
  1,340
  1,427
  1,521
  1,624
  1,735
  1,855
  1,982
  2,119
  2,264
  2,419
  2,583
  2,757
  2,941
  3,136
  3,342
  3,559
  3,789
  4,031
  4,286
  4,555
  4,839
  5,137
  5,451
  5,782
  6,130
  6,496
  6,880
Total liabilities, $m
  2,615
  2,535
  2,598
  2,669
  2,748
  2,835
  2,929
  3,032
  3,143
  3,263
  3,390
  3,527
  3,672
  3,827
  3,991
  4,165
  4,349
  4,544
  4,750
  4,967
  5,197
  5,439
  5,694
  5,963
  6,247
  6,545
  6,859
  7,190
  7,538
  7,904
  8,288
Total equity, $m
  4,492
  4,066
  4,167
  4,281
  4,408
  4,547
  4,699
  4,864
  5,042
  5,234
  5,439
  5,658
  5,891
  6,139
  6,402
  6,681
  6,977
  7,289
  7,620
  7,969
  8,337
  8,725
  9,135
  9,566
  10,021
  10,500
  11,004
  11,534
  12,092
  12,679
  13,296
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,107
  6,601
  6,765
  6,950
  7,156
  7,382
  7,628
  7,896
  8,185
  8,497
  8,829
  9,185
  9,563
  9,966
  10,393
  10,846
  11,326
  11,833
  12,370
  12,936
  13,534
  14,164
  14,829
  15,529
  16,268
  17,045
  17,863
  18,724
  19,630
  20,583
  21,584
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.595
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  163
  167
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  613
  618
  632
  647
  664
  683
  703
  726
  750
  775
  803
  763
  794
  828
  863
  901
  941
  983
  1,027
  1,075
  1,124
  1,177
  1,232
  1,290
  1,351
  1,416
  1,484
  1,555
  1,630
  1,710
  1,793
Funds from operations, $m
  843
  700
  715
  733
  753
  774
  798
  823
  850
  880
  911
  926
  962
  1,000
  1,040
  1,083
  1,128
  1,176
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,525
  1,594
  1,668
  1,745
  1,826
  1,911
  2,001
  2,096
Change in working capital, $m
  64
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  779
  693
  708
  725
  743
  764
  786
  811
  837
  865
  896
  909
  944
  981
  1,020
  1,062
  1,106
  1,153
  1,202
  1,254
  1,309
  1,367
  1,428
  1,492
  1,560
  1,632
  1,707
  1,786
  1,869
  1,957
  2,049
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -537
  -548
  -562
  -577
  -594
  -613
  -634
  -656
  -680
  -706
  -733
  -763
  -794
  -828
  -863
  -901
  -941
  -983
  -1,027
  -1,075
  -1,124
  -1,177
  -1,232
  -1,290
  -1,351
  -1,416
  -1,484
  -1,555
  -1,630
  -1,710
New CAPEX, $m
  -516
  -112
  -129
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -195
  -211
  -228
  -245
  -263
  -280
  -299
  -318
  -337
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -447
  -472
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -582
  -613
  -645
  -679
  -715
  -752
  -791
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -553
  -649
  -677
  -708
  -739
  -773
  -808
  -845
  -884
  -925
  -969
  -1,013
  -1,062
  -1,112
  -1,165
  -1,221
  -1,280
  -1,341
  -1,406
  -1,474
  -1,547
  -1,622
  -1,702
  -1,785
  -1,872
  -1,964
  -2,061
  -2,163
  -2,270
  -2,382
  -2,501
Free cash flow, $m
  226
  45
  30
  17
  4
  -9
  -22
  -35
  -47
  -60
  -72
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -145
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -204
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -273
  -292
  -312
  -333
  -354
  -377
  -401
  -425
  -451
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  54
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  136
  145
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  206
  0
  17
  28
  38
  48
  58
  68
  77
  87
  97
  56
  66
  76
  86
  97
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  261
  54
  80
  99
  117
  135
  153
  171
  188
  206
  225
  192
  211
  231
  250
  271
  292
  314
  337
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
  557
  591
  625
  661
  699
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  487
  99
  110
  115
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -351
  -80
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -263
  -279
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -349
  -368
  -388
  -410
  -432
  -455
  -479
  -504
  -530
  -558
  -587
  -617
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  506
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  524
  9
  2
  -6
  -14
  -21
  -29
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -351
  -369
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  503
  9
  1
  -5
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -62
  -60
  -56
  -53
  -49
  -45
  -41
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.8
  99.5
  99.2
  98.7
  98.1
  97.5
  96.9
  96.2
  95.4
  95.0
  94.5
  94.0
  93.4
  92.8
  92.2
  91.5
  90.8
  90.0
  89.3
  88.5
  87.7
  86.9
  86.1
  85.3
  84.4
  83.6
  82.7
  81.8
  81.0

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with mining operations in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut and exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. The Company operates through three business units. The Northern Business consists of its operations in Canada and Finland. The Company's Canadian properties include the LaRonde mine, the Lapa mine, the Goldex mine, the Meadowbank mine and the Meliadine project, and Canadian Malartic Mine. The operations in Finland include the Kittila mine. The Southern Business consists of its operations in Mexico. Its Pinos Altos mine includes the Creston Mascota deposit. The La India mine is owned by its indirect subsidiary. Its Exploration group focuses on the identification of new mineral reserves and mineral resources, and new development opportunities in gold producing regions. Its exploration activities are concentrated in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.8
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.5%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico-Eagle Mines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico-Eagle Mines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico-Eagle Mines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico-Eagle Mines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico-Eagle Mines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico-Eagle Mines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico-Eagle Mines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4492 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 234.464 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico-Eagle Mines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.4 billion.

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EGO Eldorado Gold 2.17 1.08  sell
GG Goldcorp 13.09 3.85  str.sell
KGC Kinross Gold 4.16 0.80  str.sell
IAG IAMGOLD 5.74 1.21  str.sell
ABX Barrick Gold 16.03 1.40  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Shares of Agnico Eagle Mines Are Set to Shine   [Sep-06-17 11:44AM  TheStreet.com]
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Financial statements of AEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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