Intrinsic value of American Eagle Outfitters - AEO

Previous Close

$20.94

  Intrinsic Value

$19.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$20.94

 
Intrinsic value

$19.22

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  4,099
  4,415
  4,743
  5,084
  5,438
  5,806
  6,189
  6,587
  7,002
  7,433
  7,883
  8,351
  8,839
  9,349
  9,880
  10,435
  11,015
  11,621
  12,254
  12,917
  13,610
  14,335
  15,094
  15,889
  16,721
  17,593
  18,507
  19,465
  20,468
  21,521
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,722
  4,008
  4,305
  4,614
  4,935
  5,269
  5,616
  5,977
  6,352
  6,743
  7,145
  7,569
  8,012
  8,473
  8,955
  9,458
  9,984
  10,533
  11,107
  11,707
  12,335
  12,993
  13,681
  14,401
  15,156
  15,946
  16,774
  17,642
  18,552
  19,506
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,722
  4,008
  4,305
  4,614
  4,935
  5,269
  5,616
  5,977
  6,352
  6,743
  7,145
  7,569
  8,012
  8,473
  8,955
  9,458
  9,984
  10,533
  11,107
  11,707
  12,335
  12,993
  13,681
  14,401
  15,156
  15,946
  16,774
  17,642
  18,552
  19,506
Operating income, $m
  378
  407
  438
  470
  503
  537
  573
  611
  649
  690
  738
  782
  828
  875
  925
  977
  1,031
  1,088
  1,147
  1,209
  1,274
  1,342
  1,413
  1,488
  1,566
  1,647
  1,733
  1,822
  1,916
  2,015
EBITDA, $m
  545
  587
  631
  676
  723
  772
  823
  876
  931
  989
  1,049
  1,111
  1,176
  1,244
  1,314
  1,388
  1,465
  1,546
  1,630
  1,718
  1,810
  1,907
  2,008
  2,114
  2,224
  2,340
  2,462
  2,589
  2,723
  2,863
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  378
  405
  433
  462
  492
  524
  557
  591
  627
  664
  708
  749
  791
  834
  880
  928
  977
  1,029
  1,084
  1,141
  1,200
  1,262
  1,328
  1,396
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621
  1,703
  1,789
  1,880
Tax expense, $m
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  150
  160
  169
  179
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  250
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
  396
  416
  438
  460
  483
  507
Net income, $m
  276
  295
  316
  337
  360
  383
  407
  432
  457
  485
  517
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  714
  751
  791
  833
  876
  922
  969
  1,019
  1,071
  1,126
  1,183
  1,243
  1,306
  1,372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,961
  2,112
  2,269
  2,432
  2,602
  2,778
  2,961
  3,152
  3,350
  3,557
  3,772
  3,996
  4,229
  4,473
  4,727
  4,993
  5,270
  5,560
  5,863
  6,180
  6,512
  6,859
  7,222
  7,602
  8,001
  8,418
  8,855
  9,313
  9,794
  10,297
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,961
  2,112
  2,269
  2,432
  2,602
  2,778
  2,961
  3,152
  3,350
  3,557
  3,772
  3,996
  4,229
  4,473
  4,727
  4,993
  5,270
  5,560
  5,863
  6,180
  6,512
  6,859
  7,222
  7,602
  8,001
  8,418
  8,855
  9,313
  9,794
  10,297
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
Average production assets, $m
  808
  870
  934
  1,001
  1,071
  1,144
  1,219
  1,298
  1,379
  1,464
  1,553
  1,645
  1,741
  1,842
  1,946
  2,056
  2,170
  2,289
  2,414
  2,545
  2,681
  2,824
  2,974
  3,130
  3,294
  3,466
  3,646
  3,835
  4,032
  4,240
Working capital, $m
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  111
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
Total debt, $m
  46
  94
  143
  194
  247
  303
  360
  420
  482
  547
  615
  685
  758
  835
  915
  998
  1,085
  1,176
  1,272
  1,371
  1,475
  1,584
  1,698
  1,818
  1,943
  2,074
  2,211
  2,355
  2,506
  2,664
Total liabilities, $m
  616
  663
  713
  764
  817
  872
  930
  990
  1,052
  1,117
  1,184
  1,255
  1,328
  1,405
  1,484
  1,568
  1,655
  1,746
  1,841
  1,941
  2,045
  2,154
  2,268
  2,387
  2,512
  2,643
  2,780
  2,924
  3,075
  3,233
Total equity, $m
  1,345
  1,449
  1,557
  1,669
  1,785
  1,906
  2,031
  2,162
  2,298
  2,440
  2,587
  2,741
  2,901
  3,069
  3,243
  3,425
  3,615
  3,814
  4,022
  4,240
  4,467
  4,705
  4,954
  5,215
  5,488
  5,775
  6,075
  6,389
  6,718
  7,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,961
  2,112
  2,270
  2,433
  2,602
  2,778
  2,961
  3,152
  3,350
  3,557
  3,771
  3,996
  4,229
  4,474
  4,727
  4,993
  5,270
  5,560
  5,863
  6,181
  6,512
  6,859
  7,222
  7,602
  8,000
  8,418
  8,855
  9,313
  9,793
  10,297
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  276
  295
  316
  337
  360
  383
  407
  432
  457
  485
  517
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  714
  751
  791
  833
  876
  922
  969
  1,019
  1,071
  1,126
  1,183
  1,243
  1,306
  1,372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  311
  329
  348
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  729
  767
  806
  848
Funds from operations, $m
  443
  476
  509
  544
  580
  618
  657
  697
  740
  784
  828
  876
  925
  977
  1,032
  1,088
  1,147
  1,209
  1,274
  1,342
  1,412
  1,486
  1,564
  1,645
  1,730
  1,819
  1,912
  2,010
  2,113
  2,220
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  438
  470
  503
  538
  574
  611
  650
  690
  732
  776
  820
  867
  917
  968
  1,022
  1,078
  1,137
  1,198
  1,263
  1,330
  1,400
  1,473
  1,550
  1,631
  1,715
  1,803
  1,896
  1,993
  2,095
  2,201
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -150
  -162
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -293
  -311
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -389
  -411
  -434
  -458
  -483
  -509
  -536
  -565
  -595
  -626
  -659
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -806
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -287
  -304
  -322
  -342
  -361
  -382
  -403
  -425
  -448
  -473
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -583
  -613
  -646
  -679
  -715
  -752
  -790
  -831
  -873
  -918
  -965
  -1,013
Free cash flow, $m
  228
  246
  265
  284
  303
  324
  346
  368
  391
  415
  438
  464
  491
  520
  549
  580
  612
  645
  680
  716
  754
  794
  836
  879
  925
  973
  1,023
  1,075
  1,130
  1,187
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  379
  403
  428
  453
  480
  506
  535
  565
  596
  629
  663
  699
  736
  775
  816
  859
  903
  950
  999
  1,050
  1,104
  1,160
  1,219
  1,281
  1,345
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  176
  190
  206
  223
  240
  259
  277
  297
  317
  338
  358
  381
  404
  429
  454
  481
  508
  537
  567
  598
  631
  665
  701
  738
  777
  818
  860
  905
  951
  1,000
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  169
  174
  179
  184
  186
  188
  187
  186
  182
  177
  170
  163
  154
  144
  133
  122
  111
  99
  87
  76
  65
  55
  46
  38
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO Inc.) is a multi-brand specialty retailer. The Company offers a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters Brand (AEO Brand), and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. AEO Inc. operates stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated over 1,000 retail stores and online at ae.com and aerie.com in the United States and internationally. Its company-owned retail stores are located in shopping malls, lifestyle centers and street locations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. Its other brands include Tailgate and Todd Snyder New York. Tailgate is an apparel brand with a college town store concept. Todd Snyder New York is a menswear brand. As of January 28, 2017, the AEO brand operated 943 stores and online at www.ae.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 336
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 18.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 18.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
EBITDA Margin 13.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 42.9%

AEO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3795.549 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Eagle Outfitters. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of American Eagle Outfitters. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Eagle Outfitters, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Eagle Outfitters.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Eagle Outfitters.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Eagle Outfitters. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEO are equal to 19.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Eagle Outfitters operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEO is equal to 1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1246.791 million for American Eagle Outfitters - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 176.613 million for American Eagle Outfitters is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Eagle Outfitters at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BKE Buckle 19.09 29.76  hold
TLYS Tilly's 17.10 34.29  str.buy
JWN Nordstrom 60.11 119.52  str.buy
GPS Gap 25.56 245.46  str.buy
ANF Abercrombie&Fi 17.57 114.56  str.buy
URBN Urban Outfitte 36.87 28.65  sell
EXPR Express 8.72 12.65  buy
GES Guess? 20.36 62.12  str.buy

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