Intrinsic value of American Eagle Outfitters - AEO

Previous Close

$28.02

  Intrinsic Value

$17.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$28.02

 
Intrinsic value

$17.03

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  3,990
  4,193
  4,406
  4,629
  4,864
  5,110
  5,368
  5,639
  5,923
  6,222
  6,535
  6,864
  7,209
  7,571
  7,952
  8,351
  8,770
  9,210
  9,672
  10,157
  10,666
  11,200
  11,761
  12,350
  12,969
  13,618
  14,300
  15,016
  15,767
  16,556
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,622
  3,806
  3,999
  4,202
  4,414
  4,638
  4,872
  5,117
  5,375
  5,645
  5,923
  6,221
  6,534
  6,862
  7,207
  7,569
  7,949
  8,347
  8,766
  9,206
  9,667
  10,151
  10,660
  11,194
  11,754
  12,343
  12,961
  13,610
  14,291
  15,006
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,622
  3,806
  3,999
  4,202
  4,414
  4,638
  4,872
  5,117
  5,375
  5,645
  5,923
  6,221
  6,534
  6,862
  7,207
  7,569
  7,949
  8,347
  8,766
  9,206
  9,667
  10,151
  10,660
  11,194
  11,754
  12,343
  12,961
  13,610
  14,291
  15,006
Operating income, $m
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
  522
  548
  576
  612
  643
  675
  709
  745
  782
  821
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,049
  1,101
  1,156
  1,214
  1,275
  1,339
  1,406
  1,476
  1,550
EBITDA, $m
  455
  479
  503
  528
  555
  583
  613
  644
  676
  710
  746
  783
  823
  864
  908
  953
  1,001
  1,051
  1,104
  1,159
  1,217
  1,278
  1,342
  1,410
  1,480
  1,554
  1,632
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
Earnings before tax, $m
  367
  385
  403
  422
  442
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  592
  620
  650
  681
  714
  748
  784
  822
  862
  903
  947
  993
  1,041
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
  1,259
  1,321
  1,385
  1,453
Tax expense, $m
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
  357
  374
  392
Net income, $m
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  389
  408
  432
  453
  475
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  659
  691
  725
  760
  797
  836
  876
  919
  964
  1,011
  1,061

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,909
  2,006
  2,108
  2,215
  2,327
  2,445
  2,568
  2,698
  2,834
  2,977
  3,127
  3,284
  3,449
  3,623
  3,805
  3,996
  4,196
  4,407
  4,628
  4,860
  5,103
  5,359
  5,627
  5,909
  6,205
  6,516
  6,842
  7,185
  7,544
  7,922
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,909
  2,006
  2,108
  2,215
  2,327
  2,445
  2,568
  2,698
  2,834
  2,977
  3,127
  3,284
  3,449
  3,623
  3,805
  3,996
  4,196
  4,407
  4,628
  4,860
  5,103
  5,359
  5,627
  5,909
  6,205
  6,516
  6,842
  7,185
  7,544
  7,922
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
Average production assets, $m
  818
  859
  903
  949
  997
  1,047
  1,100
  1,156
  1,214
  1,275
  1,340
  1,407
  1,478
  1,552
  1,630
  1,712
  1,798
  1,888
  1,983
  2,082
  2,186
  2,296
  2,411
  2,532
  2,659
  2,792
  2,931
  3,078
  3,232
  3,394
Working capital, $m
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
  506
  531
  558
  586
  615
  646
  678
  712
Total debt, $m
  30
  61
  93
  126
  161
  198
  237
  278
  321
  365
  413
  462
  514
  568
  625
  685
  748
  814
  884
  957
  1,033
  1,113
  1,198
  1,286
  1,379
  1,477
  1,579
  1,687
  1,800
  1,918
Total liabilities, $m
  599
  630
  662
  695
  731
  768
  806
  847
  890
  935
  982
  1,031
  1,083
  1,137
  1,195
  1,255
  1,318
  1,384
  1,453
  1,526
  1,602
  1,683
  1,767
  1,855
  1,948
  2,046
  2,148
  2,256
  2,369
  2,487
Total equity, $m
  1,310
  1,376
  1,446
  1,519
  1,596
  1,677
  1,762
  1,851
  1,944
  2,042
  2,145
  2,253
  2,366
  2,485
  2,610
  2,741
  2,879
  3,023
  3,175
  3,334
  3,501
  3,676
  3,860
  4,054
  4,257
  4,470
  4,694
  4,929
  5,175
  5,434
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,909
  2,006
  2,108
  2,214
  2,327
  2,445
  2,568
  2,698
  2,834
  2,977
  3,127
  3,284
  3,449
  3,622
  3,805
  3,996
  4,197
  4,407
  4,628
  4,860
  5,103
  5,359
  5,627
  5,909
  6,205
  6,516
  6,842
  7,185
  7,544
  7,921
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686
  0.686

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  389
  408
  432
  453
  475
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  659
  691
  725
  760
  797
  836
  876
  919
  964
  1,011
  1,061
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
  339
Funds from operations, $m
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  566
  594
  622
  652
  684
  717
  752
  789
  827
  868
  910
  954
  1,001
  1,050
  1,102
  1,156
  1,212
  1,272
  1,334
  1,400
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  553
  579
  607
  637
  668
  700
  734
  770
  807
  847
  888
  931
  977
  1,025
  1,075
  1,128
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
  1,366
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -297
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
Free cash flow, $m
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  455
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  663
  695
  729
  764
  801
  840
  881
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
  108
  113
  119
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
  108
  113
  119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  261
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391
  408
  427
  448
  469
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
  684
  717
  751
  788
  826
  867
  909
  953
  1,000
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
Cash available for distribution, $m
  199
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  305
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
  402
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  643
  674
  706
  741
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  190
  187
  186
  184
  181
  178
  173
  167
  161
  154
  145
  136
  127
  118
  108
  98
  88
  78
  68
  59
  50
  42
  35
  28
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO Inc.) is a multi-brand specialty retailer. The Company offers a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters Brand (AEO Brand), and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. AEO Inc. operates stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated over 1,000 retail stores and online at ae.com and aerie.com in the United States and internationally. Its company-owned retail stores are located in shopping malls, lifestyle centers and street locations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. Its other brands include Tailgate and Todd Snyder New York. Tailgate is an apparel brand with a college town store concept. Todd Snyder New York is a menswear brand. As of January 28, 2017, the AEO brand operated 943 stores and online at www.ae.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 336
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 18.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 18.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
EBITDA Margin 13.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 42.9%

AEO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3796 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Eagle Outfitters. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of American Eagle Outfitters. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Eagle Outfitters, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Eagle Outfitters.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Eagle Outfitters.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Eagle Outfitters. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEO stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEO are equal to 20.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Eagle Outfitters operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEO is equal to 4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1247 million for American Eagle Outfitters - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 178 million for American Eagle Outfitters is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Eagle Outfitters at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.

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ANF Abercrombie&Fi 29.26 4.57  str.sell
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