Intrinsic value of Almost Family - AFAM

Previous Close

$59.75

  Intrinsic Value

$57.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-3%

Previous close

$59.75

 
Intrinsic value

$57.91

 
Up/down potential

-3%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AFAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.29
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.12
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  624
  757
  906
  1,071
  1,251
  1,448
  1,660
  1,886
  2,128
  2,383
  2,653
  2,937
  3,234
  3,544
  3,868
  4,206
  4,557
  4,923
  5,303
  5,698
  6,108
  6,534
  6,978
  7,438
  7,918
  8,417
  8,936
  9,477
  10,041
  10,628
  11,241
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  704
  837
  984
  1,144
  1,319
  1,508
  1,710
  1,924
  2,152
  2,392
  2,614
  2,878
  3,155
  3,443
  3,744
  4,056
  4,382
  4,720
  5,071
  5,437
  5,816
  6,211
  6,621
  7,048
  7,492
  7,954
  8,436
  8,937
  9,460
  10,006
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  589
  704
  837
  984
  1,144
  1,319
  1,508
  1,710
  1,924
  2,152
  2,392
  2,614
  2,878
  3,155
  3,443
  3,744
  4,056
  4,382
  4,720
  5,071
  5,437
  5,816
  6,211
  6,621
  7,048
  7,492
  7,954
  8,436
  8,937
  9,460
  10,006
Operating income, $m
  35
  53
  69
  87
  107
  129
  152
  177
  203
  231
  261
  323
  355
  389
  425
  462
  501
  541
  583
  626
  671
  718
  767
  817
  870
  925
  982
  1,041
  1,103
  1,168
  1,235
EBITDA, $m
  39
  87
  104
  123
  143
  166
  190
  216
  244
  273
  304
  336
  370
  406
  443
  481
  522
  563
  607
  652
  699
  748
  799
  851
  906
  963
  1,023
  1,085
  1,149
  1,216
  1,287
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  10
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  43
  57
  72
  88
  106
  126
  146
  168
  192
  216
  272
  299
  328
  357
  388
  419
  453
  487
  523
  560
  599
  639
  681
  724
  769
  816
  865
  917
  970
  1,025
Tax expense, $m
  11
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  45
  52
  58
  74
  81
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  132
  141
  151
  162
  172
  184
  196
  208
  220
  234
  247
  262
  277
Net income, $m
  18
  31
  41
  52
  65
  78
  92
  107
  123
  140
  158
  199
  219
  239
  261
  283
  306
  330
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  497
  529
  562
  596
  632
  669
  708
  749

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  659
  788
  943
  1,114
  1,302
  1,507
  1,727
  1,963
  2,214
  2,480
  2,761
  3,056
  3,365
  3,688
  4,025
  4,376
  4,742
  5,122
  5,518
  5,929
  6,356
  6,799
  7,261
  7,740
  8,239
  8,758
  9,299
  9,861
  10,448
  11,060
  11,697
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  649
  788
  943
  1,114
  1,302
  1,507
  1,727
  1,963
  2,214
  2,480
  2,761
  3,056
  3,365
  3,688
  4,025
  4,376
  4,742
  5,122
  5,518
  5,929
  6,356
  6,799
  7,261
  7,740
  8,239
  8,758
  9,299
  9,861
  10,448
  11,060
  11,697
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
  0.961
Average production assets, $m
  86
  104
  124
  147
  171
  198
  227
  258
  291
  327
  363
  402
  443
  486
  530
  576
  624
  674
  726
  781
  837
  895
  956
  1,019
  1,085
  1,153
  1,224
  1,298
  1,376
  1,456
  1,540
Working capital, $m
  69
  72
  86
  102
  119
  138
  158
  179
  202
  226
  252
  279
  307
  337
  367
  400
  433
  468
  504
  541
  580
  621
  663
  707
  752
  800
  849
  900
  954
  1,010
  1,068
Total debt, $m
  275
  351
  436
  531
  634
  746
  867
  997
  1,135
  1,281
  1,435
  1,597
  1,766
  1,944
  2,129
  2,322
  2,522
  2,731
  2,948
  3,174
  3,408
  3,652
  3,905
  4,168
  4,442
  4,727
  5,024
  5,333
  5,655
  5,991
  6,341
Total liabilities, $m
  356
  432
  517
  612
  715
  827
  948
  1,078
  1,216
  1,362
  1,516
  1,678
  1,847
  2,025
  2,210
  2,403
  2,603
  2,812
  3,029
  3,255
  3,489
  3,733
  3,986
  4,249
  4,523
  4,808
  5,105
  5,414
  5,736
  6,072
  6,422
Total equity, $m
  303
  355
  425
  502
  587
  679
  779
  885
  999
  1,119
  1,245
  1,378
  1,518
  1,663
  1,815
  1,974
  2,139
  2,310
  2,489
  2,674
  2,866
  3,067
  3,275
  3,491
  3,716
  3,950
  4,194
  4,448
  4,712
  4,988
  5,276
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  659
  787
  942
  1,114
  1,302
  1,506
  1,727
  1,963
  2,215
  2,481
  2,761
  3,056
  3,365
  3,688
  4,025
  4,377
  4,742
  5,122
  5,518
  5,929
  6,355
  6,800
  7,261
  7,740
  8,239
  8,758
  9,299
  9,862
  10,448
  11,060
  11,698
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.908
  0.990
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  31
  41
  52
  65
  78
  92
  107
  123
  140
  158
  199
  219
  239
  261
  283
  306
  330
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  497
  529
  562
  596
  632
  669
  708
  749
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  65
  76
  88
  101
  115
  130
  146
  163
  181
  200
  212
  233
  255
  278
  302
  327
  353
  380
  408
  437
  467
  498
  531
  565
  600
  637
  675
  715
  757
  800
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
Cash from operations, $m
  24
  53
  62
  72
  84
  96
  110
  124
  140
  157
  175
  185
  205
  226
  247
  270
  294
  318
  344
  370
  398
  426
  456
  487
  519
  553
  587
  624
  661
  701
  742
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -167
  -21
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
Free cash flow, $m
  -143
  32
  38
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  112
  127
  134
  151
  169
  187
  206
  226
  247
  269
  292
  316
  340
  366
  392
  420
  448
  478
  509
  541
  574
  609
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  149
  76
  85
  94
  103
  112
  121
  130
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  234
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  31
  28
  25
  20
  15
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  145
  107
  113
  119
  123
  127
  129
  130
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  234
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  139
  152
  165
  177
  190
  203
  215
  236
  258
  281
  296
  321
  346
  372
  399
  427
  456
  486
  517
  550
  584
  619
  655
  693
  733
  775
  818
  863
  910
  959
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  87
  82
  87
  93
  98
  103
  109
  123
  138
  154
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  262
  285
  308
  332
  357
  384
  411
  439
  468
  499
  531
  564
  598
  634
  672
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  80
  70
  68
  65
  62
  58
  54
  53
  51
  49
  43
  40
  36
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.3
  93.6
  91.6
  90.3
  89.5
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1
  89.1

Almost Family, Inc. is a provider of home healthcare services. The Company has two divisions: Home Health and Healthcare Innovations (HCI). The Home Health division consists of two segments: Visiting Nurse Services (VN or Visiting Nurse) and Personal Care Services (PC or Personal Care). The VN segment provides a range of Medicare-certified home health nursing services to patients in need of recuperative care, following a period of hospitalization or care in another type of inpatient facility. The PC segment provides services in patients' homes primarily on an as-needed, hourly basis. These services include personal care, medication management, meal preparation, caregiver respite and homemaking. The HCI segment includes its developmental activity outside of the home health business platform. HCI activities include technology, information, population health management, risk-sharing, enhanced patient engagement and informed clinical decision making.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Almost Family (AFAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 90.8%
Total Debt to Equity 90.8%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
EBITDA Margin 6.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

AFAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AFAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $624 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Almost Family. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Almost Family. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AFAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for AFAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Almost Family, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Almost Family.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AFAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AFAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Almost Family.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Almost Family. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AFAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AFAM are equal to 13.7%.

Life of production assets of 94.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Almost Family operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AFAM is equal to 9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $303 million for Almost Family - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.877 million for Almost Family is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Almost Family at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ One of Louisville's largest public companies is merging, moving HQ   [11:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Almost Family beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 07:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 8th   [Sep-08-17 08:05AM  Zacks]
▶ Almost Family meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-10-17 12:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Almost Family tops EPS projections, narrowly misses on revenue   [Aug-09-17 02:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Almost Family, Inc. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Almost Family, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 02:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Almost Family, Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Almost Family 1Q revenue jumps as acquisition pays off   [02:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Almost Family beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-10-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Almost Family Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-09-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ To Find Big-Hit Stocks, Always Seek The A In CAN SLIM   [Apr-25-17 05:16PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Here's how much Almost Family paid its top executives in 2016   [Apr-11-17 12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 30th   [Mar-30-17 10:55AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 30th   [10:55AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Almost Family beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-07-17 06:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 15th   [Feb-15-17 08:02AM  Zacks]
▶ Almost Family grows with another acquisition   [Jan-03-17 03:59PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Almost Family grows with another acquisition   [03:59PM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of AFAM
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