Intrinsic value of American Financial Group - AFG

Previous Close

$110.11

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$110.11

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AFG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AFG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  7,256
  7,665
  8,092
  8,537
  9,003
  9,491
  10,001
  10,534
  11,093
  11,677
  12,290
  12,931
  13,603
  14,308
  15,046
  15,820
  16,632
  17,483
  18,375
  19,311
  20,293
  21,323
  22,404
  23,538
  24,728
  25,977
  27,288
  28,663
  30,107
  31,622
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,287
  6,637
  7,002
  7,384
  7,783
  8,200
  8,637
  9,093
  9,572
  10,072
  10,522
  11,071
  11,647
  12,250
  12,882
  13,545
  14,240
  14,968
  15,732
  16,534
  17,375
  18,257
  19,182
  20,153
  21,172
  22,241
  23,363
  24,541
  25,777
  27,074
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,287
  6,637
  7,002
  7,384
  7,783
  8,200
  8,637
  9,093
  9,572
  10,072
  10,522
  11,071
  11,647
  12,250
  12,882
  13,545
  14,240
  14,968
  15,732
  16,534
  17,375
  18,257
  19,182
  20,153
  21,172
  22,241
  23,363
  24,541
  25,777
  27,074
Operating income, $m
  969
  1,028
  1,089
  1,154
  1,221
  1,291
  1,364
  1,441
  1,521
  1,605
  1,768
  1,860
  1,956
  2,058
  2,164
  2,275
  2,392
  2,514
  2,643
  2,777
  2,919
  3,067
  3,222
  3,385
  3,557
  3,736
  3,925
  4,122
  4,330
  4,548
EBITDA, $m
  7,233
  7,640
  8,065
  8,509
  8,974
  9,460
  9,968
  10,500
  11,056
  11,639
  12,250
  12,889
  13,559
  14,261
  14,997
  15,768
  16,577
  17,425
  18,315
  19,248
  20,227
  21,254
  22,331
  23,461
  24,647
  25,892
  27,199
  28,569
  30,008
  31,519
Interest expense (income), $m
  75
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
  2,395
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,426
  -1,367
  -1,306
  -1,242
  -1,175
  -1,104
  -1,031
  -954
  -874
  -790
  -628
  -535
  -439
  -337
  -231
  -120
  -3
  119
  248
  382
  524
  672
  827
  990
  1,161
  1,341
  1,530
  1,727
  1,935
  2,153
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  32
  67
  103
  141
  181
  223
  267
  314
  362
  413
  466
  522
  581
Net income, $m
  -1,426
  -1,367
  -1,306
  -1,242
  -1,175
  -1,104
  -1,031
  -954
  -874
  -790
  -628
  -535
  -439
  -337
  -231
  -120
  -3
  87
  181
  279
  382
  490
  604
  723
  848
  979
  1,117
  1,261
  1,413
  1,572

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  61,889
  65,373
  69,013
  72,816
  76,791
  80,948
  85,296
  89,847
  94,610
  99,597
  104,820
  110,291
  116,023
  122,031
  128,328
  134,929
  141,851
  149,109
  156,721
  164,705
  173,081
  181,867
  191,086
  200,759
  210,909
  221,560
  232,739
  244,470
  256,783
  269,707
Working capital, $m
  -58,268
  -61,549
  -64,975
  -68,555
  -72,298
  -76,212
  -80,306
  -84,590
  -89,074
  -93,770
  -98,687
  -103,838
  -109,235
  -114,891
  -120,820
  -127,035
  -133,552
  -140,385
  -147,552
  -155,069
  -162,954
  -171,227
  -179,906
  -189,013
  -198,570
  -208,598
  -219,122
  -230,167
  -241,760
  -253,928
Total debt, $m
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
  44,354
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,426
  -1,367
  -1,306
  -1,242
  -1,175
  -1,104
  -1,031
  -954
  -874
  -790
  -628
  -535
  -439
  -337
  -231
  -120
  -3
  87
  181
  279
  382
  490
  604
  723
  848
  979
  1,117
  1,261
  1,413
  1,572
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6,263
  6,612
  6,976
  7,356
  7,753
  8,169
  8,604
  9,059
  9,535
  10,034
  10,482
  11,029
  11,602
  12,203
  12,833
  13,493
  14,185
  14,911
  15,672
  16,471
  17,308
  18,187
  19,109
  20,076
  21,091
  22,156
  23,274
  24,447
  25,678
  26,971
Funds from operations, $m
  4,837
  5,245
  5,670
  6,114
  6,579
  7,065
  7,573
  8,105
  8,661
  9,244
  9,854
  10,494
  11,164
  11,866
  12,602
  13,373
  14,182
  14,998
  15,853
  16,750
  17,690
  18,677
  19,712
  20,799
  21,939
  23,135
  24,390
  25,708
  27,091
  28,542
Change in working capital, $m
  -3,142
  -3,280
  -3,426
  -3,580
  -3,743
  -3,914
  -4,094
  -4,284
  -4,484
  -4,695
  -4,917
  -5,151
  -5,397
  -5,656
  -5,929
  -6,215
  -6,517
  -6,833
  -7,167
  -7,517
  -7,885
  -8,273
  -8,679
  -9,107
  -9,556
  -10,028
  -10,524
  -11,045
  -11,593
  -12,168
Cash from operations, $m
  7,980
  8,525
  9,096
  9,695
  10,321
  10,978
  11,667
  12,389
  13,146
  13,939
  14,772
  15,645
  16,561
  17,522
  18,530
  19,588
  20,699
  21,831
  23,020
  24,267
  25,576
  26,950
  28,392
  29,906
  31,495
  33,163
  34,915
  36,753
  38,684
  40,710
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5,855
  -6,189
  -6,537
  -6,901
  -7,282
  -7,679
  -8,095
  -8,530
  -8,985
  -9,461
  -9,960
  -10,482
  -11,029
  -11,602
  -12,203
  -12,833
  -13,493
  -14,185
  -14,911
  -15,672
  -16,471
  -17,308
  -18,187
  -19,109
  -20,076
  -21,091
  -22,156
  -23,274
  -24,447
  -25,678
New CAPEX, $m
  -3,336
  -3,484
  -3,639
  -3,803
  -3,975
  -4,157
  -4,349
  -4,550
  -4,763
  -4,987
  -5,223
  -5,471
  -5,733
  -6,008
  -6,297
  -6,601
  -6,921
  -7,258
  -7,612
  -7,984
  -8,375
  -8,787
  -9,219
  -9,673
  -10,150
  -10,651
  -11,178
  -11,732
  -12,313
  -12,924
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9,191
  -9,673
  -10,176
  -10,704
  -11,257
  -11,836
  -12,444
  -13,080
  -13,748
  -14,448
  -15,183
  -15,953
  -16,762
  -17,610
  -18,500
  -19,434
  -20,414
  -21,443
  -22,523
  -23,656
  -24,846
  -26,095
  -27,406
  -28,782
  -30,226
  -31,742
  -33,334
  -35,006
  -36,760
  -38,602
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,211
  -1,148
  -1,080
  -1,009
  -935
  -858
  -776
  -691
  -602
  -509
  -411
  -308
  -201
  -88
  30
  154
  284
  388
  497
  610
  730
  855
  986
  1,124
  1,269
  1,421
  1,580
  1,748
  1,923
  2,108
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1,211
  -1,148
  -1,080
  -1,009
  -935
  -858
  -776
  -691
  -602
  -509
  -411
  -308
  -201
  -88
  30
  154
  284
  388
  497
  610
  730
  855
  986
  1,124
  1,269
  1,421
  1,580
  1,748
  1,923
  2,108
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,426
  -1,367
  -1,306
  -1,242
  -1,175
  -1,104
  -1,031
  -954
  -874
  -790
  -628
  -535
  -439
  -337
  -231
  -120
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,426
  -1,367
  -1,306
  -1,242
  -1,175
  -1,104
  -1,031
  -954
  -874
  -790
  -628
  -535
  -439
  -337
  -201
  34
  281
  388
  497
  610
  730
  855
  986
  1,124
  1,269
  1,421
  1,580
  1,748
  1,923
  2,108
Discount rate, %
  13.60
  14.28
  14.99
  15.74
  16.53
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.09
  21.10
  22.15
  23.26
  24.42
  25.64
  26.93
  28.27
  29.69
  31.17
  32.73
  34.37
  36.08
  37.89
  39.78
  41.77
  43.86
  46.05
  48.36
  50.78
  53.31
  55.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,255
  -1,047
  -859
  -692
  -547
  -423
  -319
  -235
  -168
  -116
  -69
  -44
  -26
  -14
  -6
  1
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a holding company engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance businesses. The Company, through Great American Insurance Group, focuses on commercial products for businesses, and is engaged in the sale of fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets. It has four segments: Property and casualty insurance, Annuity, Run-off long-term care and life, and Other. It reports its property and casualty insurance business in specialty sub-segments, including Property and transportation, Specialty casualty and Specialty financial. AFG sells traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets through independent producers and through direct relationships with certain financial institutions. AFG also sells single premium annuities in financial institutions through direct relationships with certain banks and through independent agents and brokers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Financial Group (AFG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.7
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 26.1%
Total Debt to Equity 26.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 13.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 13.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 15.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Payout Ratio 28.5%

AFG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AFG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6865 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Financial Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of American Financial Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AFG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.6%, whose default value for AFG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Financial Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Financial Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AFG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AFG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Financial Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Financial Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AFG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AFG are equal to 852.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Financial Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AFG is equal to -803%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for American Financial Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88 million for American Financial Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Financial Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.7 billion.

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