Intrinsic value of AFLAC - AFL

Previous Close

$46.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$46.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AFL.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AFL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 37.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  22,100
  22,609
  23,190
  23,842
  24,565
  25,358
  26,222
  27,156
  28,163
  29,244
  30,401
  31,634
  32,948
  34,344
  35,826
  37,396
  39,058
  40,815
  42,672
  44,633
  46,702
  48,883
  51,183
  53,606
  56,158
  58,845
  61,674
  64,650
  67,781
  71,074
Variable operating expenses, $m
  17,856
  18,265
  18,733
  19,258
  19,840
  20,479
  21,174
  21,927
  22,738
  23,608
  24,479
  25,472
  26,530
  27,654
  28,847
  30,111
  31,449
  32,865
  34,360
  35,939
  37,604
  39,361
  41,213
  43,164
  45,219
  47,382
  49,660
  52,056
  54,577
  57,229
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  17,856
  18,265
  18,733
  19,258
  19,840
  20,479
  21,174
  21,927
  22,738
  23,608
  24,479
  25,472
  26,530
  27,654
  28,847
  30,111
  31,449
  32,865
  34,360
  35,939
  37,604
  39,361
  41,213
  43,164
  45,219
  47,382
  49,660
  52,056
  54,577
  57,229
Operating income, $m
  4,244
  4,343
  4,457
  4,584
  4,725
  4,879
  5,047
  5,229
  5,426
  5,636
  5,922
  6,162
  6,418
  6,690
  6,979
  7,285
  7,608
  7,951
  8,312
  8,694
  9,097
  9,522
  9,970
  10,442
  10,939
  11,463
  12,014
  12,594
  13,203
  13,845
EBITDA, $m
  17,981
  18,394
  18,867
  19,398
  19,986
  20,631
  21,334
  22,094
  22,914
  23,793
  24,734
  25,738
  26,807
  27,942
  29,148
  30,425
  31,777
  33,207
  34,718
  36,313
  37,996
  39,771
  41,643
  43,614
  45,690
  47,876
  50,177
  52,599
  55,146
  57,825
Interest expense (income), $m
  211
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
  6,489
Earnings before tax, $m
  -2,245
  -2,146
  -2,032
  -1,905
  -1,765
  -1,610
  -1,442
  -1,260
  -1,064
  -853
  -567
  -327
  -71
  201
  490
  796
  1,119
  1,462
  1,823
  2,205
  2,608
  3,033
  3,481
  3,953
  4,450
  4,974
  5,525
  6,104
  6,714
  7,356
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  54
  132
  215
  302
  395
  492
  595
  704
  819
  940
  1,067
  1,202
  1,343
  1,492
  1,648
  1,813
  1,986
Net income, $m
  -2,245
  -2,146
  -2,032
  -1,905
  -1,765
  -1,610
  -1,442
  -1,260
  -1,064
  -853
  -567
  -327
  -71
  147
  357
  581
  817
  1,067
  1,331
  1,610
  1,904
  2,214
  2,541
  2,886
  3,249
  3,631
  4,033
  4,456
  4,901
  5,370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  136,757
  139,902
  143,498
  147,534
  152,007
  156,915
  162,259
  168,044
  174,276
  180,964
  188,119
  195,754
  203,883
  212,523
  221,690
  231,405
  241,689
  252,564
  264,055
  276,188
  288,990
  302,491
  316,722
  331,716
  347,508
  364,135
  381,636
  400,052
  419,426
  439,805
Working capital, $m
  -114,878
  -117,520
  -120,540
  -123,931
  -127,688
  -131,810
  -136,299
  -141,159
  -146,394
  -152,012
  -158,022
  -164,436
  -171,264
  -178,522
  -186,223
  -194,383
  -203,022
  -212,157
  -221,810
  -232,002
  -242,755
  -254,096
  -266,050
  -278,646
  -291,911
  -305,878
  -320,579
  -336,049
  -352,323
  -369,442
Total debt, $m
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
  120,168
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2,245
  -2,146
  -2,032
  -1,905
  -1,765
  -1,610
  -1,442
  -1,260
  -1,064
  -853
  -567
  -327
  -71
  147
  357
  581
  817
  1,067
  1,331
  1,610
  1,904
  2,214
  2,541
  2,886
  3,249
  3,631
  4,033
  4,456
  4,901
  5,370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13,736
  14,051
  14,410
  14,814
  15,261
  15,752
  16,286
  16,865
  17,488
  18,157
  18,812
  19,575
  20,388
  21,252
  22,169
  23,141
  24,169
  25,256
  26,406
  27,619
  28,899
  30,249
  31,672
  33,172
  34,751
  36,413
  38,164
  40,005
  41,943
  43,980
Funds from operations, $m
  11,492
  11,905
  12,378
  12,909
  13,497
  14,142
  14,845
  15,605
  16,425
  17,304
  18,245
  19,249
  20,317
  21,399
  22,526
  23,721
  24,986
  26,323
  27,737
  29,229
  30,803
  32,463
  34,214
  36,057
  38,000
  40,044
  42,197
  44,461
  46,844
  49,350
Change in working capital, $m
  -2,253
  -2,642
  -3,020
  -3,391
  -3,757
  -4,122
  -4,489
  -4,859
  -5,235
  -5,618
  -6,010
  -6,413
  -6,829
  -7,257
  -7,701
  -8,161
  -8,639
  -9,135
  -9,653
  -10,192
  -10,754
  -11,341
  -11,954
  -12,595
  -13,265
  -13,967
  -14,701
  -15,470
  -16,275
  -17,118
Cash from operations, $m
  13,744
  14,547
  15,398
  16,300
  17,254
  18,264
  19,334
  20,464
  21,660
  22,922
  24,255
  25,662
  27,146
  28,656
  30,227
  31,882
  33,625
  35,459
  37,389
  39,420
  41,557
  43,804
  46,168
  48,653
  51,265
  54,011
  56,898
  59,931
  63,119
  66,469
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13,408
  -13,676
  -13,990
  -14,350
  -14,753
  -15,201
  -15,691
  -16,226
  -16,804
  -17,428
  -18,096
  -18,812
  -19,575
  -20,388
  -21,252
  -22,169
  -23,141
  -24,169
  -25,256
  -26,406
  -27,619
  -28,899
  -30,249
  -31,672
  -33,172
  -34,751
  -36,413
  -38,164
  -40,005
  -41,943
New CAPEX, $m
  -2,673
  -3,145
  -3,595
  -4,037
  -4,473
  -4,908
  -5,344
  -5,785
  -6,232
  -6,688
  -7,155
  -7,635
  -8,129
  -8,639
  -9,168
  -9,715
  -10,284
  -10,875
  -11,491
  -12,133
  -12,802
  -13,501
  -14,231
  -14,994
  -15,792
  -16,627
  -17,501
  -18,416
  -19,374
  -20,379
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16,081
  -16,821
  -17,585
  -18,387
  -19,226
  -20,109
  -21,035
  -22,011
  -23,036
  -24,116
  -25,251
  -26,447
  -27,704
  -29,027
  -30,420
  -31,884
  -33,425
  -35,044
  -36,747
  -38,539
  -40,421
  -42,400
  -44,480
  -46,666
  -48,964
  -51,378
  -53,914
  -56,580
  -59,379
  -62,322
Free cash flow, $m
  -2,337
  -2,274
  -2,187
  -2,087
  -1,972
  -1,844
  -1,702
  -1,546
  -1,377
  -1,194
  -996
  -785
  -559
  -371
  -192
  -2
  200
  415
  642
  882
  1,136
  1,404
  1,688
  1,986
  2,301
  2,633
  2,983
  3,352
  3,739
  4,147
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2,337
  -2,274
  -2,187
  -2,087
  -1,972
  -1,844
  -1,702
  -1,546
  -1,377
  -1,194
  -996
  -785
  -559
  -371
  -192
  -2
  200
  415
  642
  882
  1,136
  1,404
  1,688
  1,986
  2,301
  2,633
  2,983
  3,352
  3,739
  4,147
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2,245
  -2,146
  -2,032
  -1,905
  -1,765
  -1,610
  -1,442
  -1,260
  -1,064
  -853
  -567
  -327
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,245
  -2,146
  -2,032
  -1,905
  -1,765
  -1,610
  -1,442
  -1,260
  -1,064
  -853
  -567
  -327
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  200
  415
  642
  882
  1,136
  1,404
  1,688
  1,986
  2,301
  2,633
  2,983
  3,352
  3,739
  4,147
Discount rate, %
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
  60.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,957
  -1,610
  -1,295
  -1,016
  -776
  -574
  -410
  -280
  -181
  -109
  -53
  -22
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Aflac Incorporated is a business holding company. The Company is involved in supplemental health and life insurance, which is marketed and administered through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac). The Company's insurance business consists of two segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Company designs the United States insurance products to provide supplemental coverage for people having medical or primary insurance coverage. Aflac U.S. offers accident coverage on both an individual and group basis. The Company offers cancer plans, critical illness plans, and critical care and recovery plans. The Company designs the United States insurance products to provide supplemental coverage for people having medical or primary insurance coverage. Aflac U.S. offers accident coverage on both an individual and group basis. The Company offers cancer plans, critical illness plans, and critical care and recovery plans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AFLAC (AFL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 26.2%
Total Debt to Equity 26.2%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Equity 13.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 18.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Operating Margin 19.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Pre-Tax Margin 18%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Effective Tax Rate 34.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 24.7%

AFL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AFL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $21667 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AFLAC. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AFLAC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AFL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.7%, whose default value for AFL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AFLAC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AFLAC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AFL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AFL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AFLAC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AFLAC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AFL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AFL are equal to 618.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AFLAC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AFL is equal to -519.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for AFLAC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 792 million for AFLAC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AFLAC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $37.0 billion.

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