Intrinsic value of AGM Group Holdings Inc. - AGMH

Previous Close

$16.05

  Intrinsic Value

$59.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+269%

Previous close

$16.05

 
Intrinsic value

$59.22

 
Up/down potential

+269%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AGMH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  182
  238
  307
  387
  481
  588
  709
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,329
  1,517
  1,719
  1,932
  2,158
  2,396
  2,645
  2,906
  3,179
  3,464
  3,760
  4,068
  4,389
  4,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  454
  534
  621
  715
  816
  925
  1,040
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,564
  1,710
  1,864
  2,023
  2,189
  2,361
  2,540
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total operating expenses, $m
  12
  18
  27
  39
  54
  74
  99
  129
  166
  209
  260
  317
  382
  455
  535
  622
  716
  817
  927
  1,042
  1,163
  1,291
  1,425
  1,566
  1,712
  1,866
  2,025
  2,191
  2,363
  2,542
Operating income, $m
  9
  14
  21
  31
  44
  61
  83
  109
  140
  178
  221
  270
  326
  388
  457
  532
  613
  700
  792
  891
  995
  1,105
  1,220
  1,341
  1,467
  1,599
  1,735
  1,878
  2,026
  2,180
EBITDA, $m
  9
  14
  22
  32
  45
  63
  84
  111
  144
  182
  226
  276
  333
  397
  467
  543
  626
  714
  809
  910
  1,017
  1,129
  1,246
  1,370
  1,498
  1,632
  1,772
  1,918
  2,069
  2,226
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  57
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  133
  148
  165
  182
  200
  219
  239
  259
  280
  303
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  13
  20
  29
  40
  55
  74
  97
  125
  157
  195
  238
  286
  340
  399
  464
  534
  609
  688
  773
  863
  957
  1,056
  1,159
  1,267
  1,380
  1,497
  1,619
  1,745
  1,877
Tax expense, $m
  2
  4
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  42
  53
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  186
  209
  233
  258
  285
  313
  342
  372
  404
  437
  471
  507
Net income, $m
  6
  10
  14
  21
  29
  40
  54
  71
  91
  115
  142
  174
  209
  248
  292
  339
  390
  444
  503
  564
  630
  699
  771
  846
  925
  1,007
  1,093
  1,182
  1,274
  1,370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  40
  61
  92
  133
  187
  258
  346
  454
  584
  738
  916
  1,120
  1,350
  1,607
  1,889
  2,198
  2,532
  2,890
  3,273
  3,680
  4,110
  4,563
  5,039
  5,536
  6,056
  6,598
  7,162
  7,749
  8,360
  8,994
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  40
  61
  92
  133
  187
  258
  346
  454
  584
  738
  916
  1,120
  1,350
  1,607
  1,889
  2,198
  2,532
  2,890
  3,273
  3,680
  4,110
  4,563
  5,039
  5,536
  6,056
  6,598
  7,162
  7,749
  8,360
  8,994
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.525
  0.525
  0.522
  0.526
  0.524
  0.523
  0.526
  0.524
  0.526
  0.524
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
  0.525
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  24
  31
  39
  48
  59
  71
  84
  99
  115
  133
  152
  172
  193
  216
  240
  265
  291
  318
  346
  376
  407
  439
  472
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -27
  -35
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -96
  -113
  -132
  -152
  -173
  -196
  -220
  -246
  -273
  -302
  -331
  -362
  -395
  -429
  -464
  -500
  -538
Total debt, $m
  11
  26
  46
  74
  111
  158
  217
  290
  377
  481
  600
  738
  892
  1,064
  1,254
  1,462
  1,686
  1,927
  2,184
  2,458
  2,747
  3,051
  3,371
  3,705
  4,054
  4,418
  4,798
  5,192
  5,602
  6,029
Total liabilities, $m
  27
  41
  62
  89
  126
  173
  232
  305
  393
  496
  616
  753
  908
  1,080
  1,270
  1,477
  1,701
  1,942
  2,200
  2,473
  2,762
  3,067
  3,386
  3,720
  4,070
  4,434
  4,813
  5,208
  5,618
  6,044
Total equity, $m
  13
  20
  30
  44
  61
  85
  113
  149
  192
  242
  301
  367
  443
  527
  620
  721
  830
  948
  1,074
  1,207
  1,348
  1,497
  1,653
  1,816
  1,986
  2,164
  2,349
  2,542
  2,742
  2,950
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  40
  61
  92
  133
  187
  258
  345
  454
  585
  738
  917
  1,120
  1,351
  1,607
  1,890
  2,198
  2,531
  2,890
  3,274
  3,680
  4,110
  4,564
  5,039
  5,536
  6,056
  6,598
  7,162
  7,750
  8,360
  8,994
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.870
  1.290
  1.540
  1.700
  1.800
  1.870
  1.910
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  10
  14
  21
  29
  40
  54
  71
  91
  115
  142
  174
  209
  248
  292
  339
  390
  444
  503
  564
  630
  699
  771
  846
  925
  1,007
  1,093
  1,182
  1,274
  1,370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  10
  15
  22
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  147
  180
  216
  257
  301
  350
  403
  459
  519
  583
  651
  722
  797
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,130
  1,222
  1,317
  1,417
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  11
  17
  24
  34
  46
  61
  80
  102
  128
  158
  192
  230
  272
  318
  368
  423
  481
  542
  608
  677
  749
  825
  904
  987
  1,074
  1,163
  1,257
  1,354
  1,455
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  41
  55
  72
  93
  117
  145
  176
  212
  252
  295
  343
  394
  449
  507
  569
  635
  704
  777
  852
  931
  1,014
  1,100
  1,189
  1,282
  1,378
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  15
  20
  28
  37
  47
  59
  73
  87
  103
  120
  137
  155
  172
  190
  207
  224
  241
  257
  273
  289
  304
  319
  334
  349
  364
  379
  395
  410
  426
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  15
  20
  28
  37
  47
  59
  73
  87
  103
  120
  137
  155
  172
  190
  207
  224
  241
  257
  273
  289
  304
  319
  334
  349
  364
  379
  395
  410
  426
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  24
  35
  49
  67
  88
  115
  145
  180
  220
  265
  313
  367
  424
  485
  550
  618
  690
  765
  843
  924
  1,009
  1,096
  1,187
  1,281
  1,378
  1,479
  1,584
  1,692
  1,805
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  12
  17
  25
  36
  49
  65
  86
  110
  138
  170
  206
  246
  291
  340
  392
  449
  509
  572
  639
  709
  783
  860
  940
  1,024
  1,110
  1,200
  1,294
  1,391
  1,492
  1,597
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  11
  16
  22
  29
  38
  48
  58
  68
  79
  89
  98
  105
  111
  114
  115
  114
  111
  105
  98
  90
  81
  71
  62
  52
  43
  35
  28
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AGM Group Holdings Inc. (AGMH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AGMH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AGMH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AGM Group Holdings Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AGM Group Holdings Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AGMH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AGMH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AGM Group Holdings Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AGM Group Holdings Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AGMH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AGMH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AGM Group Holdings Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AGM Group Holdings Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AGMH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AGMH are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AGM Group Holdings Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AGMH is equal to -11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8.117917 million for AGM Group Holdings Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.216 million for AGM Group Holdings Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AGM Group Holdings Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.