Intrinsic value of Agrium - AGU

Previous Close

$115.00

  Intrinsic Value

$161.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+40%

Previous close

$115.00

 
Intrinsic value

$161.21

 
Up/down potential

+40%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AGU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Agrium (AGU) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.64
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  13,665
  14,854
  16,091
  17,378
  18,716
  20,106
  21,550
  23,052
  24,612
  26,235
  27,922
  29,679
  31,507
  33,412
  35,397
  37,466
  39,625
  41,878
  44,230
  46,687
  49,255
  51,939
  54,747
  57,684
  60,757
  63,974
  67,343
  70,871
  74,567
  78,440
  82,498
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8,033
  8,684
  9,362
  10,066
  10,799
  11,559
  12,350
  13,172
  14,027
  14,915
  15,631
  16,594
  17,597
  18,642
  19,732
  20,869
  22,056
  23,295
  24,589
  25,941
  27,355
  28,833
  30,380
  31,999
  33,693
  35,467
  37,325
  39,272
  41,312
  43,449
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5,427
  5,563
  5,702
  5,845
  5,991
  6,141
  6,294
  6,451
  6,613
  6,778
  6,947
  7,121
  7,299
  7,482
  7,669
  7,860
  8,057
  8,258
  8,465
  8,676
  8,893
  9,116
  9,344
  9,577
  9,817
  10,062
  10,314
  10,571
  10,836
  11,107
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,567
  13,460
  14,247
  15,064
  15,911
  16,790
  17,700
  18,644
  19,623
  20,640
  21,693
  22,578
  23,715
  24,896
  26,124
  27,401
  28,729
  30,113
  31,553
  33,054
  34,617
  36,248
  37,949
  39,724
  41,576
  43,510
  45,529
  47,639
  49,843
  52,148
  54,556
Operating income, $m
  1,098
  1,394
  1,844
  2,314
  2,805
  3,316
  3,850
  4,407
  4,989
  5,595
  6,229
  7,100
  7,792
  8,516
  9,273
  10,065
  10,895
  11,765
  12,677
  13,634
  14,638
  15,691
  16,798
  17,960
  19,181
  20,464
  21,813
  23,232
  24,723
  26,292
  27,942
EBITDA, $m
  1,630
  2,054
  2,542
  3,051
  3,582
  4,136
  4,714
  5,316
  5,945
  6,601
  7,286
  8,001
  8,748
  9,530
  10,347
  11,202
  12,098
  13,036
  14,019
  15,051
  16,132
  17,267
  18,459
  19,710
  21,025
  22,406
  23,857
  25,382
  26,986
  28,673
  30,446
Interest expense (income), $m
  272
  244
  291
  340
  390
  443
  498
  555
  614
  676
  740
  807
  876
  948
  1,023
  1,102
  1,183
  1,269
  1,358
  1,450
  1,547
  1,649
  1,755
  1,866
  1,981
  2,103
  2,230
  2,363
  2,502
  2,648
  2,801
Earnings before tax, $m
  820
  1,150
  1,553
  1,974
  2,414
  2,873
  3,352
  3,852
  4,374
  4,919
  5,489
  6,294
  6,916
  7,568
  8,249
  8,964
  9,712
  10,497
  11,320
  12,183
  13,090
  14,042
  15,043
  16,094
  17,199
  18,362
  19,584
  20,869
  22,221
  23,644
  25,142
Tax expense, $m
  224
  310
  419
  533
  652
  776
  905
  1,040
  1,181
  1,328
  1,482
  1,699
  1,867
  2,043
  2,227
  2,420
  2,622
  2,834
  3,056
  3,290
  3,534
  3,791
  4,062
  4,345
  4,644
  4,958
  5,288
  5,635
  6,000
  6,384
  6,788
Net income, $m
  592
  839
  1,134
  1,441
  1,762
  2,097
  2,447
  2,812
  3,193
  3,591
  4,007
  4,594
  5,049
  5,524
  6,022
  6,543
  7,090
  7,662
  8,263
  8,894
  9,556
  10,251
  10,981
  11,749
  12,556
  13,404
  14,296
  15,234
  16,222
  17,260
  18,353

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  412
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,963
  17,983
  19,481
  21,039
  22,658
  24,341
  26,090
  27,907
  29,797
  31,761
  33,804
  35,931
  38,145
  40,450
  42,853
  45,359
  47,972
  50,700
  53,548
  56,522
  59,631
  62,881
  66,279
  69,835
  73,556
  77,450
  81,529
  85,800
  90,275
  94,963
  99,877
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,551
  17,983
  19,481
  21,039
  22,658
  24,341
  26,090
  27,907
  29,797
  31,761
  33,804
  35,931
  38,145
  40,450
  42,853
  45,359
  47,972
  50,700
  53,548
  56,522
  59,631
  62,881
  66,279
  69,835
  73,556
  77,450
  81,529
  85,800
  90,275
  94,963
  99,877
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
Average production assets, $m
  7,175
  7,798
  8,448
  9,123
  9,826
  10,556
  11,314
  12,102
  12,921
  13,773
  14,659
  15,581
  16,541
  17,541
  18,583
  19,670
  20,803
  21,986
  23,221
  24,511
  25,859
  27,268
  28,742
  30,284
  31,897
  33,586
  35,355
  37,207
  39,148
  41,181
  43,312
Working capital, $m
  1,409
  1,857
  2,011
  2,172
  2,339
  2,513
  2,694
  2,881
  3,077
  3,279
  3,490
  3,710
  3,938
  4,177
  4,425
  4,683
  4,953
  5,235
  5,529
  5,836
  6,157
  6,492
  6,843
  7,210
  7,595
  7,997
  8,418
  8,859
  9,321
  9,805
  10,312
Total debt, $m
  5,112
  5,593
  6,532
  7,509
  8,525
  9,580
  10,676
  11,816
  13,001
  14,232
  15,513
  16,847
  18,235
  19,680
  21,187
  22,758
  24,397
  26,107
  27,892
  29,757
  31,707
  33,744
  35,875
  38,104
  40,437
  42,879
  45,436
  48,115
  50,920
  53,860
  56,941
Total liabilities, $m
  10,794
  11,275
  12,214
  13,191
  14,207
  15,262
  16,358
  17,498
  18,683
  19,914
  21,195
  22,529
  23,917
  25,362
  26,869
  28,440
  30,079
  31,789
  33,574
  35,439
  37,389
  39,426
  41,557
  43,786
  46,119
  48,561
  51,118
  53,797
  56,602
  59,542
  62,623
Total equity, $m
  6,169
  6,708
  7,266
  7,847
  8,451
  9,079
  9,732
  10,409
  11,114
  11,847
  12,609
  13,402
  14,228
  15,088
  15,984
  16,919
  17,894
  18,911
  19,973
  21,083
  22,242
  23,455
  24,722
  26,048
  27,436
  28,889
  30,410
  32,003
  33,672
  35,421
  37,254
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,963
  17,983
  19,480
  21,038
  22,658
  24,341
  26,090
  27,907
  29,797
  31,761
  33,804
  35,931
  38,145
  40,450
  42,853
  45,359
  47,973
  50,700
  53,547
  56,522
  59,631
  62,881
  66,279
  69,834
  73,555
  77,450
  81,528
  85,800
  90,274
  94,963
  99,877
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.829
  0.830
  0.900
  0.960
  1.010
  1.060
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  592
  839
  1,134
  1,441
  1,762
  2,097
  2,447
  2,812
  3,193
  3,591
  4,007
  4,594
  5,049
  5,524
  6,022
  6,543
  7,090
  7,662
  8,263
  8,894
  9,556
  10,251
  10,981
  11,749
  12,556
  13,404
  14,296
  15,234
  16,222
  17,260
  18,353
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  532
  660
  698
  737
  777
  820
  863
  909
  956
  1,006
  1,057
  901
  956
  1,014
  1,074
  1,137
  1,202
  1,271
  1,342
  1,417
  1,495
  1,576
  1,661
  1,751
  1,844
  1,941
  2,044
  2,151
  2,263
  2,380
  2,504
Funds from operations, $m
  1,849
  1,499
  1,832
  2,178
  2,540
  2,917
  3,311
  3,721
  4,150
  4,597
  5,064
  5,495
  6,005
  6,538
  7,096
  7,680
  8,292
  8,933
  9,606
  10,311
  11,051
  11,827
  12,643
  13,499
  14,399
  15,345
  16,340
  17,385
  18,484
  19,641
  20,857
Change in working capital, $m
  182
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
Cash from operations, $m
  1,667
  1,351
  1,677
  2,017
  2,372
  2,743
  3,130
  3,534
  3,955
  4,394
  4,853
  5,276
  5,776
  6,300
  6,848
  7,422
  8,022
  8,652
  9,312
  10,004
  10,730
  11,492
  12,292
  13,132
  14,015
  14,943
  15,919
  16,944
  18,022
  19,157
  20,350
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -415
  -451
  -488
  -527
  -568
  -610
  -654
  -700
  -747
  -796
  -847
  -901
  -956
  -1,014
  -1,074
  -1,137
  -1,202
  -1,271
  -1,342
  -1,417
  -1,495
  -1,576
  -1,661
  -1,751
  -1,844
  -1,941
  -2,044
  -2,151
  -2,263
  -2,380
New CAPEX, $m
  -724
  -624
  -650
  -676
  -702
  -730
  -758
  -788
  -819
  -852
  -886
  -922
  -960
  -1,000
  -1,042
  -1,086
  -1,133
  -1,183
  -1,235
  -1,290
  -1,348
  -1,409
  -1,474
  -1,542
  -1,614
  -1,689
  -1,769
  -1,852
  -1,940
  -2,033
  -2,131
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,016
  -1,039
  -1,101
  -1,164
  -1,229
  -1,298
  -1,368
  -1,442
  -1,519
  -1,599
  -1,682
  -1,769
  -1,861
  -1,956
  -2,056
  -2,160
  -2,270
  -2,385
  -2,506
  -2,632
  -2,765
  -2,904
  -3,050
  -3,203
  -3,365
  -3,533
  -3,710
  -3,896
  -4,091
  -4,296
  -4,511
Free cash flow, $m
  651
  312
  577
  853
  1,143
  1,445
  1,761
  2,091
  2,436
  2,795
  3,171
  3,506
  3,916
  4,344
  4,792
  5,261
  5,752
  6,266
  6,806
  7,371
  7,965
  8,588
  9,242
  9,929
  10,651
  11,410
  12,209
  13,048
  13,931
  14,861
  15,838
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -205
  893
  939
  977
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,140
  1,185
  1,232
  1,281
  1,333
  1,388
  1,446
  1,507
  1,571
  1,639
  1,710
  1,786
  1,865
  1,949
  2,038
  2,131
  2,229
  2,333
  2,442
  2,557
  2,678
  2,806
  2,940
  3,081
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -205
  893
  939
  977
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,140
  1,185
  1,232
  1,281
  1,333
  1,388
  1,446
  1,507
  1,571
  1,639
  1,710
  1,786
  1,865
  1,949
  2,038
  2,131
  2,229
  2,333
  2,442
  2,557
  2,678
  2,806
  2,940
  3,081
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  379
  1,206
  1,516
  1,830
  2,158
  2,501
  2,858
  3,231
  3,620
  4,027
  4,452
  4,839
  5,304
  5,790
  6,299
  6,832
  7,391
  7,977
  8,591
  9,236
  9,914
  10,625
  11,373
  12,158
  12,984
  13,852
  14,766
  15,726
  16,737
  17,800
  18,919
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -166
  -539
  -559
  -581
  -604
  -628
  -652
  -678
  -705
  -733
  -762
  -793
  -826
  -860
  -896
  -935
  -975
  -1,017
  -1,062
  -1,110
  -1,160
  -1,212
  -1,268
  -1,326
  -1,388
  -1,453
  -1,521
  -1,593
  -1,669
  -1,749
  -1,833
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  667
  957
  1,249
  1,554
  1,873
  2,206
  2,553
  2,916
  3,294
  3,690
  4,046
  4,478
  4,930
  5,402
  5,897
  6,416
  6,959
  7,529
  8,127
  8,754
  9,413
  10,105
  10,832
  11,596
  12,400
  13,245
  14,133
  15,068
  16,051
  17,086
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  626
  839
  1,015
  1,163
  1,281
  1,367
  1,423
  1,448
  1,443
  1,412
  1,337
  1,264
  1,174
  1,071
  959
  844
  729
  618
  514
  418
  333
  260
  198
  147
  106
  75
  52
  34
  22
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Agrium Inc is a Canada-based company, which provides products and services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agrium (AGU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.8
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 71.3%
Total Debt to Equity 82.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
EBITDA Margin 11.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Payout Ratio 81.4%

AGU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AGU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13665 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agrium. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agrium. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AGU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for AGU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agrium, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agrium.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AGU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5295 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AGU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Agrium.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agrium. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AGU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AGU are equal to 52.5%.

Life of production assets of 17.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agrium operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AGU is equal to 12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6169 million for Agrium - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 137.739 million for Agrium is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agrium at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.8 billion.

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Financial statements of AGU
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