Intrinsic value of Agilysys - AGYS

Previous Close

$16.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$16.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.37

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AGYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  398
  418
Variable operating expenses, $m
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  161
  164
  169
  173
  179
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  517
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  161
  164
  169
  173
  179
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  517
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.807
  0.811
  0.805
  0.809
  0.804
  0.810
  0.806
  0.808
  0.810
  0.808
  0.810
  0.809
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.809
  0.810
  0.808
  0.810
  0.806
  0.809
  0.806
  0.809
  0.808
  0.807
  0.808
  0.808
  0.809
  0.807
  0.809
Average production assets, $m
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
Working capital, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  112
Total liabilities, $m
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
Total equity, $m
  111
  113
  116
  120
  123
  127
  132
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
  340
  357
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  161
  164
  168
  174
  178
  184
  191
  197
  205
  213
  222
  230
  239
  249
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  325
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  493
  517
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  38
  40
  41
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.6
  93.3
  90.0
  86.9
  83.8
  80.8
  78.0
  75.2
  72.5
  69.9
  68.3
  66.7
  65.1
  63.6
  62.0
  60.5
  59.0
  57.5
  56.0
  54.6
  53.1
  51.7
  50.4
  49.0
  47.7
  46.4
  45.1
  43.9
  42.7
  41.5

Agilysys, Inc. is a technology company. The Company provides software for point-of-sale (POS), property management, inventory and procurement, workforce management, analytics, document management, and mobile and wireless solutions and services to the hospitality industry. The Company serves four market sectors: gaming, both corporate and tribal; hotels, resorts and cruise; foodservice management, and restaurants, universities, stadia and healthcare. The Company is a developer and marketer of software enabled solutions and services to the hospitality industry, including hardware and software products; support, maintenance and subscription services, and professional services. The rGuest platform is designed to run as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)-based platform on the public cloud, private cloud, on-premise or in a hybrid configuration. The rGuest platform includes various in-market solutions, such as rGuest Stay, rGuest Buy, rGuest Seat, rGuest Pay and rGuest Analyze.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agilysys (AGYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -31.5
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 126.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Return On Total Capital -10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.6%
Return On Equity -10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.8%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Operating Margin -8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Net Profit Margin -9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Effective Tax Rate -9.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

AGYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AGYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $127.36 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agilysys. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Agilysys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AGYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AGYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agilysys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agilysys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AGYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AGYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Agilysys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agilysys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AGYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AGYS are equal to 42.4%.

Life of production assets of 20.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agilysys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AGYS is equal to -16.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $108.431 million for Agilysys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.525 million for Agilysys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agilysys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Agilysys: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-01-18 06:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agilysys: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agilysys, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Agilysys Earnings Preview   [07:49AM  Benzinga]
▶ Agilysys Participates in HTNG Whitepaper on GDPR   [Mar-22-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Agilysys to Sponsor Kimptons Annual GM & Chef Meeting 2018   [Feb-27-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Agilysys reports 3Q loss   [Jan-25-18 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agilysys Earnings Preview   [10:52AM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : December 27, 2017   [Dec-27-17 10:57AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : December 13, 2017   [Dec-13-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 11:52AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 11:42AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Agilysys Inc (AGYS)?   [Nov-07-17 12:43PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Agilysys reports 2Q loss   [Nov-01-17 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Agilysys, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 10:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Agilysys reports 1Q loss   [Aug-04-17 12:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Agilysys Appoints Tony Pritchett Chief Financial Officer   [Jun-19-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Agilysys reports 4Q loss   [Jun-01-17 04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Agilysys, Inc. : April 11, 2017   [Apr-11-17 02:11PM  Capital Cube]

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