Intrinsic value of Albany International Cl A - AIN

Previous Close

$76.90

  Intrinsic Value

$19.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$76.90

 
Intrinsic value

$19.51

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  957
  1,055
  1,157
  1,264
  1,376
  1,492
  1,612
  1,737
  1,868
  2,003
  2,144
  2,290
  2,442
  2,600
  2,764
  2,936
  3,114
  3,300
  3,494
  3,696
  3,906
  4,127
  4,356
  4,597
  4,848
  5,110
  5,385
  5,672
  5,973
  6,288
Variable operating expenses, $m
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,105
  1,200
  1,299
  1,403
  1,510
  1,621
  1,737
  1,836
  1,961
  2,091
  2,226
  2,367
  2,514
  2,667
  2,826
  2,992
  3,165
  3,345
  3,534
  3,730
  3,936
  4,151
  4,376
  4,611
  4,857
  5,115
  5,385
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,105
  1,200
  1,299
  1,403
  1,510
  1,621
  1,737
  1,836
  1,961
  2,091
  2,226
  2,367
  2,514
  2,667
  2,826
  2,992
  3,165
  3,345
  3,534
  3,730
  3,936
  4,151
  4,376
  4,611
  4,857
  5,115
  5,385
Operating income, $m
  115
  129
  144
  159
  175
  192
  209
  227
  246
  266
  308
  329
  351
  374
  397
  422
  447
  474
  502
  531
  561
  593
  626
  661
  697
  734
  774
  815
  858
  904
EBITDA, $m
  211
  233
  255
  279
  303
  329
  355
  383
  412
  442
  473
  505
  538
  573
  610
  647
  687
  728
  770
  815
  861
  910
  961
  1,014
  1,069
  1,127
  1,187
  1,251
  1,317
  1,387
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  97
  107
  117
  128
  139
  151
  163
  175
  188
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354
  373
  394
  415
  437
  460
  484
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
Tax expense, $m
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
Net income, $m
  64
  71
  78
  86
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  163
  174
  184
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  258
  273
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  391
  412
  433
  455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,484
  1,636
  1,795
  1,960
  2,133
  2,312
  2,499
  2,694
  2,896
  3,105
  3,323
  3,550
  3,786
  4,031
  4,286
  4,551
  4,828
  5,116
  5,416
  5,730
  6,056
  6,398
  6,754
  7,127
  7,516
  7,923
  8,349
  8,794
  9,261
  9,749
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,484
  1,636
  1,795
  1,960
  2,133
  2,312
  2,499
  2,694
  2,896
  3,105
  3,323
  3,550
  3,786
  4,031
  4,286
  4,551
  4,828
  5,116
  5,416
  5,730
  6,056
  6,398
  6,754
  7,127
  7,516
  7,923
  8,349
  8,794
  9,261
  9,749
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
Average production assets, $m
  735
  810
  889
  971
  1,056
  1,145
  1,238
  1,334
  1,434
  1,538
  1,646
  1,759
  1,875
  1,997
  2,123
  2,255
  2,392
  2,534
  2,683
  2,838
  3,000
  3,169
  3,346
  3,530
  3,723
  3,925
  4,136
  4,356
  4,587
  4,829
Working capital, $m
  101
  112
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  184
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  276
  293
  311
  330
  350
  370
  392
  414
  437
  462
  487
  514
  542
  571
  601
  633
  667
Total debt, $m
  601
  690
  784
  881
  983
  1,089
  1,200
  1,314
  1,433
  1,557
  1,686
  1,820
  1,959
  2,103
  2,254
  2,410
  2,573
  2,743
  2,921
  3,105
  3,298
  3,500
  3,710
  3,930
  4,159
  4,400
  4,651
  4,914
  5,189
  5,477
Total liabilities, $m
  876
  965
  1,059
  1,156
  1,258
  1,364
  1,475
  1,589
  1,708
  1,832
  1,961
  2,095
  2,234
  2,378
  2,529
  2,685
  2,848
  3,018
  3,196
  3,380
  3,573
  3,775
  3,985
  4,205
  4,434
  4,675
  4,926
  5,189
  5,464
  5,752
Total equity, $m
  609
  671
  736
  804
  874
  948
  1,025
  1,104
  1,187
  1,273
  1,363
  1,456
  1,552
  1,653
  1,757
  1,866
  1,979
  2,098
  2,221
  2,349
  2,483
  2,623
  2,769
  2,922
  3,082
  3,248
  3,423
  3,606
  3,797
  3,997
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,485
  1,636
  1,795
  1,960
  2,132
  2,312
  2,500
  2,693
  2,895
  3,105
  3,324
  3,551
  3,786
  4,031
  4,286
  4,551
  4,827
  5,116
  5,417
  5,729
  6,056
  6,398
  6,754
  7,127
  7,516
  7,923
  8,349
  8,795
  9,261
  9,749
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.100
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  71
  78
  86
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  163
  174
  184
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  258
  273
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  391
  412
  433
  455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  414
  436
  459
  483
Funds from operations, $m
  160
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  294
  313
  328
  350
  372
  395
  419
  445
  471
  498
  527
  556
  587
  620
  654
  689
  726
  765
  805
  847
  892
  938
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  164
  178
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  280
  299
  313
  334
  356
  378
  402
  426
  452
  478
  506
  535
  565
  596
  629
  663
  699
  737
  776
  817
  860
  905
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -414
  -436
  -459
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -293
  -309
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -382
  -402
  -423
  -446
  -469
  -494
  -519
  -546
  -574
  -603
  -635
  -667
  -701
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  89
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  144
  153
  163
  172
  183
  193
  204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  87
  89
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  87
  89
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  98
  104
  112
  120
  129
  137
  146
  156
  165
  176
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  329
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  445
  468
  492
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash available for distribution, $m
  59
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
Discount rate, %
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  56
  37
  39
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  37
  35
  31
  29
  26
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Albany International Corp. is focused on textiles and materials processing business. The Company operates through two segments: Machine Clothing and Albany Engineered Composites. The Company's Machine Clothing segment supplies permeable and impermeable belts used in the manufacture of paper, paperboard, nonwovens, fiber cement and various other industrial applications. The Machine Clothing segment also supplies customized, consumable fabrics used in the manufacturing process in the pulp, corrugator, nonwovens, fiber cement, building products, and tannery and textile industries. Its Albany Engineered Composites segment includes Albany Safran Composites, LLC (ASC), in which its customer SAFRAN Group owns interest and provides engineered composite structures based on its technology to customers in the aerospace and defense industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Albany International Cl A (AIN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.6
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 352.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 85.2%
Total Debt to Equity 95.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Payout Ratio 41.5%

AIN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $864 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Albany International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Albany International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for AIN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Albany International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Albany International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Albany International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Albany International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIN stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIN are equal to 76.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Albany International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIN is equal to 10.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $570 million for Albany International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32 million for Albany International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Albany International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Aug-07-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jul-10-18 12:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Jun-28-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [May-11-18 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 07:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Apr-12-18 12:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Announces New Director Nominee   [Feb-23-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [03:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 4Q profit   [Feb-05-18 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces New CEO   [05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jan-16-18 10:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Dec-15-17 10:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Oct-11-17 09:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Sep-05-17 09:11AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Aug-31-17 12:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Aug-24-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 12:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces CEO Succession Plan   [Aug-01-17 05:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Best Stock in New Hampshire: Albany International   [Jul-20-17 08:50AM  Kiplinger]
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