Intrinsic value of Air T - AIRT

Previous Close

$34.00

  Intrinsic Value

$115.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+238%

Previous close

$34.00

 
Intrinsic value

$115.05

 
Up/down potential

+238%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.40
  20.66
  19.09
  17.68
  16.42
  15.27
  14.25
  13.32
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.91
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
Revenue, $m
  238
  287
  342
  403
  469
  540
  617
  700
  787
  879
  977
  1,079
  1,186
  1,297
  1,414
  1,535
  1,662
  1,793
  1,929
  2,071
  2,219
  2,372
  2,531
  2,697
  2,869
  3,048
  3,235
  3,429
  3,632
  3,843
Variable operating expenses, $m
  198
  238
  284
  334
  389
  448
  512
  580
  652
  729
  809
  893
  982
  1,074
  1,171
  1,271
  1,376
  1,485
  1,598
  1,715
  1,837
  1,964
  2,096
  2,233
  2,376
  2,524
  2,679
  2,840
  3,007
  3,182
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
Total operating expenses, $m
  228
  268
  315
  366
  421
  481
  546
  615
  687
  765
  846
  931
  1,020
  1,113
  1,211
  1,312
  1,418
  1,528
  1,642
  1,760
  1,883
  2,011
  2,144
  2,282
  2,426
  2,575
  2,731
  2,893
  3,062
  3,238
Operating income, $m
  11
  19
  27
  37
  48
  59
  72
  85
  99
  115
  131
  148
  165
  184
  203
  223
  244
  265
  288
  311
  336
  361
  387
  415
  443
  473
  504
  536
  570
  605
EBITDA, $m
  14
  22
  32
  42
  54
  66
  80
  94
  109
  125
  142
  160
  179
  199
  219
  241
  263
  286
  310
  335
  361
  389
  417
  446
  477
  508
  542
  576
  612
  650
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  15
  23
  31
  41
  51
  62
  74
  87
  100
  115
  130
  145
  161
  178
  196
  214
  234
  253
  274
  296
  318
  341
  366
  391
  417
  445
  473
  503
  534
Tax expense, $m
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  170
  185
  200
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  305
  325
  345
  367
  390

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  119
  143
  170
  201
  234
  269
  308
  349
  392
  438
  487
  538
  591
  646
  705
  765
  828
  893
  961
  1,032
  1,105
  1,182
  1,261
  1,344
  1,429
  1,519
  1,612
  1,709
  1,810
  1,915
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  119
  143
  170
  201
  234
  269
  308
  349
  392
  438
  487
  538
  591
  646
  705
  765
  828
  893
  961
  1,032
  1,105
  1,182
  1,261
  1,344
  1,429
  1,519
  1,612
  1,709
  1,810
  1,915
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.000
  2.007
  2.012
  2.005
  2.004
  2.007
  2.003
  2.006
  2.008
  2.007
  2.006
  2.006
  2.007
  2.008
  2.006
  2.007
  2.007
  2.008
  2.007
  2.007
  2.008
  2.007
  2.007
  2.007
  2.008
  2.007
  2.007
  2.006
  2.007
  2.007
Average production assets, $m
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  143
  154
  166
  177
  190
  202
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  291
  307
Working capital, $m
  40
  49
  58
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  134
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  240
  261
  282
  305
  328
  352
  377
  403
  430
  458
  488
  518
  550
  583
  617
  653
Total debt, $m
  64
  82
  102
  125
  149
  176
  204
  234
  267
  301
  337
  374
  414
  455
  498
  543
  590
  638
  688
  741
  795
  852
  911
  972
  1,035
  1,101
  1,170
  1,242
  1,317
  1,395
Total liabilities, $m
  88
  106
  126
  149
  173
  199
  228
  258
  291
  325
  361
  398
  438
  479
  522
  567
  613
  662
  712
  765
  819
  876
  934
  996
  1,059
  1,125
  1,194
  1,266
  1,341
  1,419
Total equity, $m
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  90
  102
  113
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  198
  214
  231
  249
  267
  286
  306
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  443
  469
  496
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  119
  143
  170
  201
  233
  269
  308
  348
  393
  438
  487
  537
  591
  646
  704
  765
  827
  893
  961
  1,032
  1,105
  1,182
  1,261
  1,344
  1,429
  1,518
  1,611
  1,709
  1,810
  1,915
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.080
  2.220
  2.320
  2.400
  2.470
  2.520
  2.560
  2.600
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
  2.700
  2.720
  2.730
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.760
  2.770
  2.780
  2.780
  2.790
  2.790
  2.800
  2.800
  2.800
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  170
  185
  200
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  305
  325
  345
  367
  390
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  15
  21
  28
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  120
  133
  147
  161
  176
  191
  207
  224
  242
  260
  279
  298
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  7
  12
  18
  25
  32
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  90
  102
  114
  127
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  217
  234
  251
  270
  289
  309
  330
  352
  375
  398
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -59
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  0
  4
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  43
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  152
  166
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  262
  280
  299
  319
  339
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  18
  24
  31
  39
  47
  56
  65
  75
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  289
  308
  328
  349
  371
  394
  417
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  12
  17
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  249
  267
  286
  305
  325
  346
  367
  390
Discount rate, %
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  10
  13
  15
  17
  18
  19
  19
  18
  17
  15
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Air T, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through five segments: overnight air cargo, ground equipment sales, ground support services, printing equipment and maintenance, and leasing. The company's overnight air cargo segment operates in the air express delivery services industry. The ground equipment sales segment manufactures and provides mobile deicers and other specialized equipment products to passenger and cargo airlines, airports, the United States military and industrial customers. The ground support services segment provides ground support equipment maintenance and facilities maintenance services to domestic airlines and aviation service providers. The printing equipment and maintenance segment designs, manufactures and sells advanced digital print production equipment, maintenance contracts, spare parts, supplies and consumable items for these systems. The Company's leasing segment provides funding for equipment leasing transactions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Air T (AIRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -23.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 78.3%
Total Debt to Equity 78.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital -7.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
EBITDA Margin -0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Net Profit Margin -2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate -25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AIRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $194.519345 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Air T. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Air T. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for AIRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Air T, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Air T.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $29 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Air T.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Air T. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIRT are equal to 8%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Air T operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIRT is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $25.117851 million for Air T - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.044 million for Air T is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Air T at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results   [Nov-13-18 05:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ What Air T Incs (NASDAQ:AIRT) ROE Can Tell Us   [Oct-22-18 02:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Third Quarter Earnings   [Feb-14-18 03:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : December 29, 2017   [Dec-29-17 11:27AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Second Quarter Earnings   [Nov-14-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited First Quarter Earnings   [Oct-26-17 05:08PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2017 Results   [Oct-13-17 05:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Receives NASDAQ Notice Letter   [Aug-24-17 04:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Receives NASDAQ Notice Letter   [Jul-24-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 12:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Third Quarter Earnings   [Feb-13-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T Insider Invests in Company   [Dec-14-16 06:07PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : December 9, 2016   [Dec-09-16 12:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Global Aviation Services, LLC Acquires D&D GSE   [Nov-02-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : September 6, 2016   [Sep-06-16 09:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report First Quarter Results On August 15   [Aug-12-16 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report First Quarter Results On August 12   [Aug-09-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2016 Results   [08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Delphax Closes On Financing Agreement With Air T, Inc.   [Dec-03  11:54AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Air T, Inc.   [Aug-08  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Air T, Inc.   [Jun-10  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2015 Results   [08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report Annual Results On June 8   [Jun-01  08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Meet the Activist Targeting the Activist Who Runs Steak 'n Shake   [Apr-08  05:54PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 10-Q for Air T, Inc.   [Feb-05  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]

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