Intrinsic value of Air T - AIRT

Previous Close

$29.82

  Intrinsic Value

$53.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+78%

Previous close

$29.82

 
Intrinsic value

$53.23

 
Up/down potential

+78%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.16
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  148
  186
  230
  279
  335
  397
  466
  540
  620
  706
  798
  895
  998
  1,106
  1,219
  1,337
  1,461
  1,590
  1,724
  1,863
  2,008
  2,159
  2,315
  2,478
  2,647
  2,823
  3,006
  3,196
  3,394
  3,601
  3,816
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  178
  220
  268
  321
  381
  446
  517
  593
  676
  763
  856
  954
  1,057
  1,166
  1,279
  1,397
  1,520
  1,648
  1,782
  1,920
  2,064
  2,214
  2,370
  2,532
  2,700
  2,875
  3,057
  3,246
  3,443
  3,649
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  154
  178
  220
  268
  321
  381
  446
  517
  593
  676
  763
  856
  954
  1,057
  1,166
  1,279
  1,397
  1,520
  1,648
  1,782
  1,920
  2,064
  2,214
  2,370
  2,532
  2,700
  2,875
  3,057
  3,246
  3,443
  3,649
Operating income, $m
  -6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  167
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  112
  119
  127
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
Net income, $m
  -3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  65
  75
  93
  113
  136
  161
  189
  219
  251
  286
  323
  363
  404
  448
  494
  542
  592
  644
  699
  755
  814
  875
  939
  1,004
  1,073
  1,144
  1,218
  1,296
  1,376
  1,460
  1,547
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  60
  75
  93
  113
  136
  161
  189
  219
  251
  286
  323
  363
  404
  448
  494
  542
  592
  644
  699
  755
  814
  875
  939
  1,004
  1,073
  1,144
  1,218
  1,296
  1,376
  1,460
  1,547
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.467
  2.480
  2.473
  2.469
  2.463
  2.466
  2.466
  2.466
  2.470
  2.469
  2.471
  2.466
  2.470
  2.469
  2.468
  2.467
  2.468
  2.469
  2.466
  2.468
  2.467
  2.467
  2.465
  2.468
  2.467
  2.468
  2.468
  2.466
  2.467
  2.466
  2.467
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
Working capital, $m
  29
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  114
  129
  145
  162
  179
  197
  217
  237
  258
  279
  302
  325
  350
  375
  401
  429
  457
  487
  518
  550
  583
  618
Total debt, $m
  18
  29
  41
  55
  71
  89
  108
  129
  152
  176
  202
  230
  259
  290
  322
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  546
  589
  633
  679
  727
  777
  829
  883
  939
  998
  1,059
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  53
  65
  79
  95
  113
  132
  153
  176
  200
  226
  254
  283
  314
  346
  379
  414
  451
  489
  529
  570
  613
  657
  703
  751
  801
  853
  907
  963
  1,022
  1,083
Total equity, $m
  23
  23
  28
  34
  41
  48
  57
  66
  75
  86
  97
  109
  121
  134
  148
  163
  178
  193
  210
  227
  244
  263
  282
  301
  322
  343
  366
  389
  413
  438
  464
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  65
  76
  93
  113
  136
  161
  189
  219
  251
  286
  323
  363
  404
  448
  494
  542
  592
  644
  699
  756
  814
  876
  939
  1,004
  1,073
  1,144
  1,219
  1,296
  1,376
  1,460
  1,547
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.783
  1.270
  1.470
  1.630
  1.740
  1.840
  1.910
  1.970
  2.020
  2.050
  2.090
  2.110
  2.140
  2.150
  2.170
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
  2.260
  2.270
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  -15
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  56
  60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  10
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  10
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0
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Air T, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through five segments: overnight air cargo, ground equipment sales, ground support services, printing equipment and maintenance, and leasing. The company's overnight air cargo segment operates in the air express delivery services industry. The ground equipment sales segment manufactures and provides mobile deicers and other specialized equipment products to passenger and cargo airlines, airports, the United States military and industrial customers. The ground support services segment provides ground support equipment maintenance and facilities maintenance services to domestic airlines and aviation service providers. The printing equipment and maintenance segment designs, manufactures and sells advanced digital print production equipment, maintenance contracts, spare parts, supplies and consumable items for these systems. The Company's leasing segment provides funding for equipment leasing transactions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Air T (AIRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 78.3%
Total Debt to Equity 78.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital -7.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
EBITDA Margin -0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Net Profit Margin -2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate -25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AIRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $148 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Air T. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Air T. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for AIRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Air T, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Air T.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Air T.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Air T. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIRT are equal to 0.7%.

Life of production assets of 1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Air T operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIRT is equal to 16.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $23 million for Air T - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.965 million for Air T is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Air T at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : December 29, 2017   [Dec-29-17 11:27AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Second Quarter Earnings   [Nov-14-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited First Quarter Earnings   [Oct-26-17 05:08PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2017 Results   [Oct-13-17 05:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Receives NASDAQ Notice Letter   [Aug-24-17 04:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Receives NASDAQ Notice Letter   [Jul-24-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 12:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Third Quarter Earnings   [Feb-13-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T Insider Invests in Company   [Dec-14-16 06:07PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : December 9, 2016   [Dec-09-16 12:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Global Aviation Services, LLC Acquires D&D GSE   [Nov-02-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Air T, Inc. : September 6, 2016   [Sep-06-16 09:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report First Quarter Results On August 15   [Aug-12-16 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report First Quarter Results On August 12   [Aug-09-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2016 Results   [08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Delphax Closes On Financing Agreement With Air T, Inc.   [Dec-03  11:54AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Air T, Inc.   [Aug-08  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Air T, Inc.   [Jun-10  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2015 Results   [08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Air T, Inc. To Report Annual Results On June 8   [Jun-01  08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Meet the Activist Targeting the Activist Who Runs Steak 'n Shake   [Apr-08  05:54PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 10-Q for Air T, Inc.   [Feb-05  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Air T, Inc.   [Nov-10  07:08PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports Unaudited Second Quarter Earnings   [Nov-07  08:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Stocks Advancing The Transportation Industry   [Oct-17  04:32PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Air T, Inc. Reports First Quarter Earnings   [Aug-07  06:26PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of AIRT
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