Intrinsic value of Applied Industrial Technologies - AIT

Previous Close

$69.75

  Intrinsic Value

$3.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$69.75

 
Intrinsic value

$3.92

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.80
  20.12
  18.61
  17.25
  16.02
  14.92
  13.93
  13.04
  12.23
  11.51
  10.86
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  3,159
  3,795
  4,501
  5,277
  6,123
  7,036
  8,016
  9,061
  10,170
  11,340
  12,571
  13,863
  15,214
  16,624
  18,094
  19,625
  21,217
  22,872
  24,592
  26,380
  28,238
  30,169
  32,176
  34,264
  36,437
  38,698
  41,053
  43,507
  46,065
  48,732
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,041
  3,645
  4,316
  5,054
  5,858
  6,727
  7,658
  8,652
  9,706
  10,818
  11,952
  13,180
  14,464
  15,805
  17,203
  18,658
  20,172
  21,746
  23,381
  25,081
  26,847
  28,683
  30,592
  32,577
  34,642
  36,792
  39,031
  41,364
  43,796
  46,332
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,041
  3,645
  4,316
  5,054
  5,858
  6,727
  7,658
  8,652
  9,706
  10,818
  11,952
  13,180
  14,464
  15,805
  17,203
  18,658
  20,172
  21,746
  23,381
  25,081
  26,847
  28,683
  30,592
  32,577
  34,642
  36,792
  39,031
  41,364
  43,796
  46,332
Operating income, $m
  119
  150
  185
  223
  265
  310
  358
  409
  464
  522
  619
  683
  749
  819
  891
  967
  1,045
  1,127
  1,211
  1,299
  1,391
  1,486
  1,585
  1,688
  1,795
  1,906
  2,022
  2,143
  2,269
  2,400
EBITDA, $m
  185
  222
  264
  309
  359
  412
  470
  531
  596
  665
  737
  812
  892
  974
  1,060
  1,150
  1,243
  1,340
  1,441
  1,546
  1,655
  1,768
  1,886
  2,008
  2,135
  2,268
  2,406
  2,550
  2,700
  2,856
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  16
  23
  32
  41
  52
  63
  75
  88
  102
  117
  133
  149
  167
  185
  203
  223
  244
  265
  287
  310
  334
  359
  385
  411
  439
  468
  499
  530
  563
  597
Earnings before tax, $m
  103
  127
  153
  182
  213
  247
  283
  321
  362
  404
  486
  534
  583
  634
  688
  743
  801
  862
  924
  989
  1,057
  1,127
  1,200
  1,276
  1,355
  1,438
  1,523
  1,613
  1,706
  1,803
Tax expense, $m
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  67
  76
  87
  98
  109
  131
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  216
  233
  250
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  388
  411
  435
  461
  487
Net income, $m
  75
  92
  112
  133
  155
  180
  206
  234
  264
  295
  355
  389
  425
  463
  502
  543
  585
  629
  675
  722
  772
  823
  876
  932
  989
  1,049
  1,112
  1,177
  1,245
  1,316

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,690
  2,030
  2,408
  2,824
  3,276
  3,765
  4,289
  4,848
  5,441
  6,067
  6,726
  7,417
  8,140
  8,895
  9,681
  10,500
  11,352
  12,238
  13,158
  14,115
  15,109
  16,142
  17,216
  18,333
  19,495
  20,705
  21,965
  23,278
  24,647
  26,074
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,690
  2,030
  2,408
  2,824
  3,276
  3,765
  4,289
  4,848
  5,441
  6,067
  6,726
  7,417
  8,140
  8,895
  9,681
  10,500
  11,352
  12,238
  13,158
  14,115
  15,109
  16,142
  17,216
  18,333
  19,495
  20,705
  21,965
  23,278
  24,647
  26,074
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
  1.869
Average production assets, $m
  363
  436
  518
  607
  704
  809
  922
  1,042
  1,170
  1,304
  1,446
  1,594
  1,750
  1,912
  2,081
  2,257
  2,440
  2,630
  2,828
  3,034
  3,247
  3,469
  3,700
  3,940
  4,190
  4,450
  4,721
  5,003
  5,297
  5,604
Working capital, $m
  575
  691
  819
  960
  1,114
  1,281
  1,459
  1,649
  1,851
  2,064
  2,288
  2,523
  2,769
  3,026
  3,293
  3,572
  3,861
  4,163
  4,476
  4,801
  5,139
  5,491
  5,856
  6,236
  6,631
  7,043
  7,472
  7,918
  8,384
  8,869
Total debt, $m
  432
  589
  764
  957
  1,166
  1,392
  1,635
  1,894
  2,169
  2,458
  2,763
  3,083
  3,418
  3,767
  4,132
  4,511
  4,905
  5,315
  5,741
  6,184
  6,645
  7,123
  7,620
  8,137
  8,676
  9,236
  9,819
  10,427
  11,061
  11,722
Total liabilities, $m
  783
  940
  1,115
  1,307
  1,517
  1,743
  1,986
  2,245
  2,519
  2,809
  3,114
  3,434
  3,769
  4,118
  4,482
  4,862
  5,256
  5,666
  6,092
  6,535
  6,995
  7,474
  7,971
  8,488
  9,026
  9,587
  10,170
  10,778
  11,411
  12,072
Total equity, $m
  908
  1,090
  1,293
  1,516
  1,759
  2,022
  2,303
  2,603
  2,922
  3,258
  3,612
  3,983
  4,371
  4,776
  5,199
  5,639
  6,096
  6,572
  7,066
  7,580
  8,113
  8,668
  9,245
  9,845
  10,469
  11,119
  11,795
  12,500
  13,235
  14,002
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,691
  2,030
  2,408
  2,823
  3,276
  3,765
  4,289
  4,848
  5,441
  6,067
  6,726
  7,417
  8,140
  8,894
  9,681
  10,501
  11,352
  12,238
  13,158
  14,115
  15,108
  16,142
  17,216
  18,333
  19,495
  20,706
  21,965
  23,278
  24,646
  26,074
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.480
  0.540
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  92
  112
  133
  155
  180
  206
  234
  264
  295
  355
  389
  425
  463
  502
  543
  585
  629
  675
  722
  772
  823
  876
  932
  989
  1,049
  1,112
  1,177
  1,245
  1,316
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  72
  79
  86
  94
  103
  112
  122
  132
  143
  118
  130
  142
  155
  169
  183
  198
  214
  230
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  362
  384
  407
  431
  456
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  165
  191
  219
  250
  283
  318
  356
  396
  438
  473
  519
  568
  618
  671
  726
  783
  843
  905
  969
  1,036
  1,105
  1,177
  1,252
  1,330
  1,411
  1,496
  1,584
  1,676
  1,772
Change in working capital, $m
  103
  116
  129
  141
  154
  166
  178
  190
  202
  213
  224
  235
  246
  257
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  395
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  49
  62
  78
  96
  117
  140
  166
  194
  225
  249
  284
  322
  362
  404
  448
  494
  542
  592
  643
  697
  753
  812
  872
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,137
  1,210
  1,286
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -30
  -35
  -42
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -75
  -85
  -95
  -106
  -118
  -130
  -142
  -155
  -169
  -183
  -198
  -214
  -230
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -384
  -407
  -431
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -103
  -116
  -131
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -195
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -285
  -304
  -324
  -345
  -366
  -388
  -412
  -436
  -461
  -486
  -513
  -541
  -570
  -601
  -633
  -666
  -701
  -738
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -54
  -51
  -46
  -39
  -29
  -18
  -4
  1
  18
  37
  57
  79
  102
  127
  153
  180
  208
  237
  267
  299
  331
  364
  399
  435
  471
  509
  549
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  140
  157
  175
  192
  209
  226
  243
  259
  275
  290
  305
  320
  335
  349
  364
  379
  394
  410
  426
  443
  460
  478
  497
  517
  538
  560
  583
  608
  634
  661
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  87
  90
  91
  90
  87
  82
  75
  66
  54
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  227
  247
  266
  282
  296
  308
  318
  325
  329
  331
  305
  320
  335
  349
  364
  379
  394
  410
  426
  443
  460
  478
  497
  517
  538
  560
  583
  608
  634
  661
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  178
  194
  212
  229
  246
  263
  279
  295
  311
  327
  306
  338
  372
  407
  443
  482
  521
  563
  606
  651
  697
  746
  796
  848
  903
  959
  1,018
  1,079
  1,143
  1,210
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -183
  -203
  -223
  -243
  -262
  -282
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -354
  -371
  -388
  -405
  -422
  -440
  -457
  -476
  -494
  -514
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -624
  -650
  -677
  -705
  -735
  -766
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  15
  12
  9
  6
  3
  0
  -2
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -48
  -33
  -17
  1
  21
  42
  64
  87
  112
  137
  164
  191
  219
  248
  278
  309
  341
  374
  408
  443
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  11
  8
  5
  2
  0
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -23
  -14
  -6
  0
  6
  11
  14
  16
  17
  17
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.9
  94.3
  92.2
  90.4
  89.0
  87.9
  87.0
  86.3
  85.8
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5
  85.5

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. is an industrial distributor in North America, Australia and New Zealand, serving maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), and original equipment manufacturing customers in various industries. In addition, the Company provides engineering, design, and systems integration for industrial and fluid power applications, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber, and fluid power shop services. It operates in two segments: service center-based distribution and fluid power businesses. The service center-based distribution segment provides customers with a range of industrial products primarily through a network of service centers. The fluid power businesses segment consists of specialized regional companies that distribute fluid power components, design and assemble fluid power systems, and perform equipment repair. The fluid power businesses primarily sell products and services directly to customers rather than through the service centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 38.5%
Total Debt to Equity 39.2%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 19.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 19.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

AIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2593.746 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Applied Industrial Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Applied Industrial Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Applied Industrial Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Applied Industrial Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Applied Industrial Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Applied Industrial Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIT are equal to 11.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Applied Industrial Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIT is equal to 18.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $745.256 million for Applied Industrial Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.721 million for Applied Industrial Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Applied Industrial Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ A Preview Of Applied Industrial's Q4 Earnings   [Aug-09-18 02:44PM  Benzinga]
▶ Looking At Aiton Caldwell SA (WSE:AIT) From All Angles   [Jun-27-18 08:13AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Applied Industrial Technologies: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 10:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Outlook For Applied Industrial   [Apr-25-18 03:19PM  Benzinga]
▶ Should You Buy Aiton Caldwell SA (WSE:AIT) At This PE Ratio?   [Apr-03-18 10:51AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Is Aiton Caldwell SAs (WSE:AIT) ROE Of 13.33% Sustainable?   [Mar-15-18 01:06PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Applied Industrial Technologies posts 2Q profit   [06:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ 6 Industrial Stocks Likely to Beat Estimates in Q4   [Jan-19-18 12:50PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] Applied Industrial Technologies to Buy Harvest-Backed FCX Performance   [Jan-09-18 02:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]

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