Intrinsic value of Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. - AIT

Previous Close

$58.58

  Intrinsic Value

$137.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+135%

Previous close

$58.58

 
Intrinsic value

$137.53

 
Up/down potential

+135%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.90
  23.81
  21.93
  20.24
  18.71
  17.34
  16.11
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
Revenue, $m
  3,869
  4,790
  5,841
  7,022
  8,336
  9,782
  11,358
  13,061
  14,889
  16,839
  18,908
  21,094
  23,394
  25,806
  28,330
  30,966
  33,713
  36,574
  39,550
  42,644
  45,860
  49,202
  52,674
  56,284
  60,036
  63,939
  67,999
  72,226
  76,627
  81,213
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,435
  4,227
  5,130
  6,146
  7,276
  8,519
  9,873
  11,338
  12,909
  14,586
  16,256
  18,136
  20,113
  22,187
  24,357
  26,623
  28,985
  31,445
  34,003
  36,664
  39,428
  42,302
  45,287
  48,391
  51,617
  54,972
  58,463
  62,097
  65,881
  69,823
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  100
  102
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  119
  122
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  151
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  176
  180
  184
  188
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,535
  4,329
  5,235
  6,253
  7,385
  8,631
  9,987
  11,455
  13,028
  14,708
  16,381
  18,263
  20,243
  22,320
  24,493
  26,762
  29,127
  31,590
  34,151
  36,815
  39,583
  42,460
  45,449
  48,556
  51,786
  55,145
  58,639
  62,277
  66,065
  70,011
Operating income, $m
  334
  461
  606
  770
  952
  1,152
  1,370
  1,607
  1,861
  2,131
  2,527
  2,831
  3,151
  3,486
  3,837
  4,204
  4,586
  4,984
  5,398
  5,829
  6,277
  6,742
  7,226
  7,728
  8,251
  8,794
  9,360
  9,949
  10,562
  11,201
EBITDA, $m
  478
  613
  768
  942
  1,136
  1,350
  1,583
  1,835
  2,105
  2,394
  2,701
  3,024
  3,365
  3,723
  4,097
  4,488
  4,895
  5,320
  5,761
  6,220
  6,697
  7,193
  7,709
  8,244
  8,801
  9,381
  9,984
  10,611
  11,265
  11,946
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  52
  73
  96
  124
  154
  188
  225
  266
  310
  357
  408
  461
  518
  577
  639
  705
  773
  844
  918
  994
  1,074
  1,157
  1,244
  1,333
  1,427
  1,524
  1,624
  1,729
  1,839
  1,952
Earnings before tax, $m
  282
  389
  510
  646
  798
  964
  1,145
  1,341
  1,551
  1,774
  2,120
  2,370
  2,633
  2,909
  3,198
  3,499
  3,814
  4,141
  4,481
  4,835
  5,202
  5,585
  5,982
  6,395
  6,824
  7,271
  7,736
  8,220
  8,724
  9,249
Tax expense, $m
  76
  105
  138
  174
  215
  260
  309
  362
  419
  479
  572
  640
  711
  785
  863
  945
  1,030
  1,118
  1,210
  1,305
  1,405
  1,508
  1,615
  1,727
  1,843
  1,963
  2,089
  2,219
  2,355
  2,497
Net income, $m
  206
  284
  372
  472
  582
  704
  836
  979
  1,132
  1,295
  1,547
  1,730
  1,922
  2,124
  2,335
  2,555
  2,784
  3,023
  3,271
  3,529
  3,798
  4,077
  4,367
  4,668
  4,982
  5,308
  5,647
  6,000
  6,368
  6,752

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,879
  3,564
  4,346
  5,225
  6,203
  7,278
  8,451
  9,718
  11,078
  12,529
  14,069
  15,695
  17,406
  19,201
  21,079
  23,040
  25,084
  27,213
  29,427
  31,729
  34,122
  36,608
  39,192
  41,878
  44,670
  47,574
  50,595
  53,739
  57,014
  60,426
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,879
  3,564
  4,346
  5,225
  6,203
  7,278
  8,451
  9,718
  11,078
  12,529
  14,069
  15,695
  17,406
  19,201
  21,079
  23,040
  25,084
  27,213
  29,427
  31,729
  34,122
  36,608
  39,192
  41,878
  44,670
  47,574
  50,595
  53,739
  57,014
  60,426
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
Average production assets, $m
  600
  742
  905
  1,088
  1,292
  1,516
  1,760
  2,024
  2,308
  2,610
  2,931
  3,270
  3,626
  4,000
  4,391
  4,800
  5,226
  5,669
  6,130
  6,610
  7,108
  7,626
  8,165
  8,724
  9,306
  9,911
  10,540
  11,195
  11,877
  12,588
Working capital, $m
  743
  920
  1,121
  1,348
  1,601
  1,878
  2,181
  2,508
  2,859
  3,233
  3,630
  4,050
  4,492
  4,955
  5,439
  5,945
  6,473
  7,022
  7,594
  8,188
  8,805
  9,447
  10,114
  10,807
  11,527
  12,276
  13,056
  13,867
  14,712
  15,593
Total debt, $m
  1,344
  1,785
  2,287
  2,853
  3,481
  4,173
  4,927
  5,742
  6,616
  7,549
  8,539
  9,585
  10,685
  11,839
  13,047
  14,308
  15,622
  16,991
  18,415
  19,895
  21,433
  23,032
  24,694
  26,420
  28,216
  30,083
  32,025
  34,047
  36,153
  38,347
Total liabilities, $m
  1,851
  2,292
  2,794
  3,360
  3,988
  4,680
  5,434
  6,249
  7,123
  8,056
  9,046
  10,092
  11,192
  12,346
  13,554
  14,815
  16,129
  17,498
  18,922
  20,402
  21,940
  23,539
  25,201
  26,928
  28,723
  30,590
  32,532
  34,554
  36,660
  38,854
Total equity, $m
  1,028
  1,272
  1,551
  1,865
  2,214
  2,598
  3,017
  3,469
  3,955
  4,473
  5,023
  5,603
  6,214
  6,855
  7,525
  8,225
  8,955
  9,715
  10,505
  11,327
  12,182
  13,069
  13,992
  14,950
  15,947
  16,984
  18,062
  19,185
  20,354
  21,572
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,879
  3,564
  4,345
  5,225
  6,202
  7,278
  8,451
  9,718
  11,078
  12,529
  14,069
  15,695
  17,406
  19,201
  21,079
  23,040
  25,084
  27,213
  29,427
  31,729
  34,122
  36,608
  39,193
  41,878
  44,670
  47,574
  50,594
  53,739
  57,014
  60,426
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.310
  1.400
  1.470
  1.530
  1.570
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  206
  284
  372
  472
  582
  704
  836
  979
  1,132
  1,295
  1,547
  1,730
  1,922
  2,124
  2,335
  2,555
  2,784
  3,023
  3,271
  3,529
  3,798
  4,077
  4,367
  4,668
  4,982
  5,308
  5,647
  6,000
  6,368
  6,752
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  144
  152
  162
  173
  185
  198
  212
  228
  245
  263
  173
  193
  215
  237
  260
  284
  309
  335
  363
  391
  421
  451
  483
  516
  551
  586
  624
  662
  703
  745
Funds from operations, $m
  350
  436
  534
  644
  767
  902
  1,048
  1,207
  1,377
  1,558
  1,721
  1,923
  2,137
  2,360
  2,594
  2,839
  3,093
  3,358
  3,634
  3,920
  4,218
  4,528
  4,850
  5,184
  5,532
  5,894
  6,271
  6,663
  7,071
  7,497
Change in working capital, $m
  153
  177
  202
  227
  252
  278
  303
  327
  351
  374
  397
  420
  442
  463
  485
  506
  528
  549
  571
  594
  617
  642
  667
  693
  720
  749
  780
  811
  845
  880
Cash from operations, $m
  197
  259
  332
  417
  515
  624
  746
  880
  1,026
  1,183
  1,323
  1,504
  1,695
  1,897
  2,110
  2,333
  2,566
  2,809
  3,062
  3,326
  3,601
  3,886
  4,183
  4,491
  4,812
  5,145
  5,491
  5,851
  6,226
  6,616
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -35
  -44
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -90
  -104
  -120
  -137
  -154
  -173
  -193
  -215
  -237
  -260
  -284
  -309
  -335
  -363
  -391
  -421
  -451
  -483
  -516
  -551
  -586
  -624
  -662
  -703
New CAPEX, $m
  -122
  -143
  -163
  -183
  -204
  -224
  -244
  -264
  -283
  -302
  -321
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -480
  -498
  -518
  -538
  -559
  -582
  -605
  -629
  -655
  -682
  -711
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -150
  -178
  -207
  -237
  -268
  -300
  -334
  -368
  -403
  -439
  -475
  -512
  -549
  -589
  -628
  -669
  -710
  -752
  -796
  -843
  -889
  -939
  -989
  -1,042
  -1,098
  -1,156
  -1,215
  -1,279
  -1,344
  -1,414
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  81
  126
  181
  247
  324
  412
  512
  623
  745
  848
  992
  1,145
  1,309
  1,482
  1,664
  1,856
  2,056
  2,266
  2,484
  2,711
  2,948
  3,194
  3,449
  3,714
  3,989
  4,275
  4,572
  4,881
  5,203
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  380
  441
  503
  565
  629
  692
  754
  815
  875
  933
  990
  1,046
  1,100
  1,154
  1,208
  1,261
  1,314
  1,369
  1,424
  1,480
  1,539
  1,599
  1,661
  1,727
  1,795
  1,867
  1,943
  2,022
  2,106
  2,194
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  387
  441
  503
  565
  629
  692
  754
  815
  875
  933
  990
  1,046
  1,100
  1,154
  1,208
  1,261
  1,314
  1,369
  1,424
  1,480
  1,539
  1,599
  1,661
  1,727
  1,795
  1,867
  1,943
  2,022
  2,106
  2,194
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  434
  521
  628
  746
  875
  1,015
  1,166
  1,326
  1,497
  1,678
  1,838
  2,037
  2,246
  2,463
  2,689
  2,925
  3,170
  3,425
  3,689
  3,964
  4,250
  4,547
  4,855
  5,176
  5,509
  5,856
  6,218
  6,594
  6,987
  7,396
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -213
  -245
  -279
  -314
  -349
  -384
  -419
  -452
  -486
  -518
  -550
  -581
  -611
  -641
  -670
  -700
  -730
  -760
  -791
  -822
  -854
  -888
  -922
  -959
  -997
  -1,037
  -1,079
  -1,123
  -1,169
  -1,218
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  221
  277
  349
  432
  526
  631
  747
  874
  1,012
  1,160
  1,289
  1,457
  1,635
  1,822
  2,019
  2,225
  2,440
  2,665
  2,899
  3,142
  3,396
  3,659
  3,933
  4,217
  4,512
  4,820
  5,139
  5,472
  5,818
  6,178
Discount rate, %
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  204
  235
  270
  302
  329
  350
  363
  369
  366
  355
  330
  307
  280
  249
  217
  184
  153
  124
  98
  76
  57
  42
  30
  20
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. is an industrial distributor in North America, Australia and New Zealand, serving maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), and original equipment manufacturing customers in various industries. In addition, the Company provides engineering, design, and systems integration for industrial and fluid power applications, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber, and fluid power shop services. It operates in two segments: service center-based distribution and fluid power businesses. The service center-based distribution segment provides customers with a range of industrial products primarily through a network of service centers. The fluid power businesses segment consists of specialized regional companies that distribute fluid power components, design and assemble fluid power systems, and perform equipment repair. The fluid power businesses primarily sell products and services directly to customers rather than through the service centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 38.5%
Total Debt to Equity 39.2%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 19.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 19.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

AIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3073 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for AIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $98 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIT are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIT is equal to 19.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $814.963 million for Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.753 million for Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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