Intrinsic value of Apartment Investment&Management - AIV

Previous Close

$38.00

  Intrinsic Value

$2.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$38.00

 
Intrinsic value

$2.87

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AIV.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Apartment Investment&Management (AIV) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.53
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  996
  1,020
  1,047
  1,077
  1,111
  1,147
  1,187
  1,230
  1,276
  1,326
  1,379
  1,435
  1,495
  1,559
  1,627
  1,698
  1,774
  1,854
  1,939
  2,028
  2,123
  2,222
  2,327
  2,437
  2,554
  2,676
  2,805
  2,940
  3,083
  3,233
  3,390
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  754
  774
  796
  821
  848
  877
  909
  943
  980
  1,019
  1,061
  1,105
  1,152
  1,202
  1,255
  1,311
  1,370
  1,433
  1,499
  1,569
  1,642
  1,720
  1,801
  1,887
  1,977
  2,073
  2,173
  2,278
  2,389
  2,505
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  749
  754
  774
  796
  821
  848
  877
  909
  943
  980
  1,019
  1,061
  1,105
  1,152
  1,202
  1,255
  1,311
  1,370
  1,433
  1,499
  1,569
  1,642
  1,720
  1,801
  1,887
  1,977
  2,073
  2,173
  2,278
  2,389
  2,505
Operating income, $m
  247
  266
  273
  281
  290
  299
  310
  321
  333
  346
  360
  375
  390
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  506
  529
  554
  580
  607
  636
  666
  698
  732
  767
  805
  844
  885
EBITDA, $m
  580
  608
  624
  642
  662
  684
  708
  733
  761
  790
  822
  856
  891
  929
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,106
  1,156
  1,209
  1,265
  1,325
  1,387
  1,453
  1,522
  1,595
  1,672
  1,753
  1,838
  1,927
  2,021
Interest expense (income), $m
  200
  201
  207
  213
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  400
  420
  440
  462
  485
  509
  535
  562
  590
  620
  651
  684
  719
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  153
  160
  166
Tax expense, $m
  -25
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
Net income, $m
  430
  48
  48
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,233
  6,335
  6,503
  6,692
  6,899
  7,127
  7,373
  7,640
  7,927
  8,235
  8,564
  8,914
  9,287
  9,683
  10,104
  10,549
  11,020
  11,517
  12,043
  12,599
  13,184
  13,802
  14,453
  15,138
  15,860
  16,620
  17,420
  18,262
  19,148
  20,079
  21,058
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,172
  6,335
  6,503
  6,692
  6,899
  7,127
  7,373
  7,640
  7,927
  8,235
  8,564
  8,914
  9,287
  9,683
  10,104
  10,549
  11,020
  11,517
  12,043
  12,599
  13,184
  13,802
  14,453
  15,138
  15,860
  16,620
  17,420
  18,262
  19,148
  20,079
  21,058
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
Average production assets, $m
  5,542
  5,675
  5,826
  5,994
  6,180
  6,384
  6,605
  6,844
  7,101
  7,377
  7,671
  7,985
  8,320
  8,674
  9,051
  9,449
  9,871
  10,317
  10,789
  11,286
  11,811
  12,364
  12,947
  13,561
  14,208
  14,889
  15,605
  16,359
  17,153
  17,987
  18,864
Working capital, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
Total debt, $m
  3,885
  3,982
  4,102
  4,237
  4,386
  4,549
  4,725
  4,916
  5,122
  5,342
  5,578
  5,829
  6,096
  6,379
  6,680
  6,999
  7,336
  7,693
  8,069
  8,467
  8,886
  9,328
  9,794
  10,285
  10,802
  11,346
  11,919
  12,522
  13,156
  13,823
  14,524
Total liabilities, $m
  4,439
  4,536
  4,656
  4,791
  4,940
  5,103
  5,279
  5,470
  5,676
  5,896
  6,132
  6,383
  6,650
  6,933
  7,234
  7,553
  7,890
  8,247
  8,623
  9,021
  9,440
  9,882
  10,348
  10,839
  11,356
  11,900
  12,473
  13,076
  13,710
  14,377
  15,078
Total equity, $m
  1,794
  1,799
  1,847
  1,900
  1,959
  2,024
  2,094
  2,170
  2,251
  2,339
  2,432
  2,532
  2,638
  2,750
  2,869
  2,996
  3,130
  3,271
  3,420
  3,578
  3,744
  3,920
  4,105
  4,299
  4,504
  4,720
  4,947
  5,186
  5,438
  5,702
  5,981
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,233
  6,335
  6,503
  6,691
  6,899
  7,127
  7,373
  7,640
  7,927
  8,235
  8,564
  8,915
  9,288
  9,683
  10,103
  10,549
  11,020
  11,518
  12,043
  12,599
  13,184
  13,802
  14,453
  15,138
  15,860
  16,620
  17,420
  18,262
  19,148
  20,079
  21,059
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.166
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.330
  2.340
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
  2.370
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.390
  2.400
  2.400
  2.410
  2.410
  2.420
  2.420
  2.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  430
  48
  48
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  333
  342
  351
  361
  372
  385
  398
  412
  428
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  545
  569
  595
  622
  650
  680
  711
  745
  780
  817
  856
  897
  940
  986
  1,033
  1,084
  1,136
Funds from operations, $m
  352
  389
  399
  411
  423
  437
  451
  467
  484
  503
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  795
  831
  869
  910
  952
  997
  1,044
  1,093
  1,145
  1,200
  1,258
Change in working capital, $m
  -26
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  378
  390
  400
  412
  425
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  524
  545
  567
  591
  616
  642
  670
  700
  731
  764
  799
  835
  874
  914
  957
  1,002
  1,049
  1,099
  1,151
  1,207
  1,264
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -334
  -342
  -351
  -361
  -372
  -385
  -398
  -412
  -428
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -501
  -523
  -545
  -569
  -595
  -622
  -650
  -680
  -711
  -745
  -780
  -817
  -856
  -897
  -940
  -986
  -1,033
  -1,084
New CAPEX, $m
  -645
  -133
  -151
  -169
  -186
  -204
  -221
  -239
  -257
  -276
  -295
  -314
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -399
  -422
  -446
  -471
  -497
  -525
  -553
  -583
  -614
  -647
  -681
  -717
  -754
  -793
  -834
  -877
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -467
  -493
  -520
  -547
  -576
  -606
  -637
  -669
  -704
  -739
  -776
  -815
  -856
  -899
  -944
  -991
  -1,041
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,205
  -1,264
  -1,328
  -1,394
  -1,464
  -1,537
  -1,614
  -1,694
  -1,779
  -1,867
  -1,961
Free cash flow, $m
  280
  -76
  -92
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -153
  -168
  -183
  -199
  -215
  -231
  -248
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -383
  -406
  -430
  -454
  -480
  -507
  -535
  -564
  -595
  -627
  -661
  -696
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  115
  121
  135
  149
  163
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  377
  398
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  544
  573
  603
  634
  667
  701
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  1
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  157
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  116
  121
  139
  157
  175
  194
  212
  230
  249
  268
  289
  309
  331
  353
  375
  398
  423
  449
  476
  502
  531
  562
  593
  626
  660
  697
  734
  773
  815
  858
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  226
  39
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -172
  -48
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.6
  99.4
  99.1
  98.7
  98.3
  97.9
  97.5
  97.0
  96.5
  95.9
  95.3
  94.8
  94.2
  93.5
  92.9
  92.2
  91.6
  90.9
  90.2
  89.6
  88.9
  88.2
  87.5
  86.8
  86.1
  85.4

Apartment Investment and Management Company (Aimco) is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Aimco, through its subsidiaries, AIMCO-GP, Inc. and AIMCO-LP Trust, holds the ownership interests in the Aimco Operating Partnership. It operates through two segments: conventional real estate and affordable real estate. As of December 31, 2016, its real estate portfolio consisted of 189 apartment communities with 46,311 apartment homes. Aimco Operating Partnership conducts the Company's business, which is focused on the ownership, management, redevelopment and limited development of apartment communities located in the coastal and job growth markets of the United States. Its Conventional segment consists of apartment communities it classifies as Conventional Same Store and Conventional Non-Same Store. Its affordable portfolio consists primarily of apartment communities that it manages that are owned through low-income housing tax credit partnerships.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Apartment Investment&Management (AIV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 215.6%
Total Debt to Equity 216.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.4%
EBITDA Margin 59.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.6%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 43.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Effective Tax Rate -39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.3%
Payout Ratio 50.2%

AIV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $996 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Apartment Investment&Management. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Apartment Investment&Management. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for AIV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Apartment Investment&Management, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Apartment Investment&Management.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Apartment Investment&Management.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Apartment Investment&Management. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIV are equal to 556.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Apartment Investment&Management operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIV is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1794 million for Apartment Investment&Management - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156.486 million for Apartment Investment&Management is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Apartment Investment&Management at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Apartment Investment Management reports 4Q results   [Feb-01-18 04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aimco Reports Fourth Quarter Results   [04:23PM  Business Wire]
▶ Colorado apartment operator Aimco loses 'illicit subletting' court fight with Airbnb   [Jan-03-18 10:58AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Airbnb says court dismisses Aimco lawsuit   [Jan-02-18 05:04PM  Reuters]
▶ Aimco (AIV) Q3 2017 Earnings Conference Call Transcript   [Nov-06-17 01:14PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Apartment Investment Management reports 3Q results   [Oct-26-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aimco Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ Miami Beach to consider major apartment renovation project, new condo (Renderings)   [Sep-27-17 02:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Aimco Reports Second Quarter Results   [Jul-27-17 06:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ Aimco Acquires 100% Ownership of Palazzo Properties   [Jul-05-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of AIV
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