Intrinsic value of Akamai Technologies - AKAM

Previous Close

$69.46

  Intrinsic Value

$32.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$69.46

 
Intrinsic value

$32.61

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  2,738
  2,984
  3,239
  3,505
  3,781
  4,069
  4,367
  4,678
  5,000
  5,335
  5,684
  6,047
  6,424
  6,817
  7,227
  7,653
  8,098
  8,563
  9,048
  9,554
  10,082
  10,635
  11,213
  11,817
  12,450
  13,112
  13,804
  14,530
  15,290
  16,086
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,183
  2,363
  2,551
  2,746
  2,950
  3,161
  3,380
  3,608
  3,845
  4,092
  4,178
  4,445
  4,722
  5,011
  5,312
  5,626
  5,953
  6,294
  6,651
  7,023
  7,411
  7,818
  8,242
  8,687
  9,152
  9,638
  10,147
  10,681
  11,239
  11,825
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,183
  2,363
  2,551
  2,746
  2,950
  3,161
  3,380
  3,608
  3,845
  4,092
  4,178
  4,445
  4,722
  5,011
  5,312
  5,626
  5,953
  6,294
  6,651
  7,023
  7,411
  7,818
  8,242
  8,687
  9,152
  9,638
  10,147
  10,681
  11,239
  11,825
Operating income, $m
  555
  620
  688
  759
  832
  908
  987
  1,069
  1,155
  1,243
  1,506
  1,602
  1,702
  1,806
  1,914
  2,028
  2,145
  2,268
  2,397
  2,531
  2,671
  2,817
  2,971
  3,131
  3,298
  3,473
  3,657
  3,849
  4,051
  4,261
EBITDA, $m
  999
  1,089
  1,182
  1,279
  1,380
  1,485
  1,594
  1,707
  1,825
  1,947
  2,074
  2,207
  2,344
  2,488
  2,637
  2,793
  2,955
  3,125
  3,302
  3,486
  3,679
  3,881
  4,092
  4,312
  4,543
  4,785
  5,037
  5,302
  5,580
  5,870
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  71
  79
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  232
  246
  262
  278
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
Earnings before tax, $m
  520
  578
  639
  702
  768
  837
  908
  982
  1,058
  1,138
  1,391
  1,478
  1,568
  1,661
  1,759
  1,861
  1,967
  2,077
  2,193
  2,313
  2,439
  2,571
  2,709
  2,853
  3,004
  3,162
  3,327
  3,500
  3,681
  3,871
Tax expense, $m
  140
  156
  173
  190
  207
  226
  245
  265
  286
  307
  376
  399
  423
  449
  475
  502
  531
  561
  592
  625
  659
  694
  731
  770
  811
  854
  898
  945
  994
  1,045
Net income, $m
  379
  422
  466
  513
  561
  611
  663
  717
  773
  831
  1,016
  1,079
  1,144
  1,213
  1,284
  1,358
  1,436
  1,516
  1,601
  1,689
  1,781
  1,877
  1,978
  2,083
  2,193
  2,308
  2,429
  2,555
  2,687
  2,826

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,804
  5,234
  5,683
  6,149
  6,634
  7,138
  7,662
  8,206
  8,772
  9,360
  9,972
  10,608
  11,270
  11,960
  12,678
  13,427
  14,208
  15,023
  15,873
  16,761
  17,689
  18,658
  19,672
  20,732
  21,842
  23,003
  24,218
  25,491
  26,824
  28,221
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,804
  5,234
  5,683
  6,149
  6,634
  7,138
  7,662
  8,206
  8,772
  9,360
  9,972
  10,608
  11,270
  11,960
  12,678
  13,427
  14,208
  15,023
  15,873
  16,761
  17,689
  18,658
  19,672
  20,732
  21,842
  23,003
  24,218
  25,491
  26,824
  28,221
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
Average production assets, $m
  1,752
  1,910
  2,073
  2,243
  2,420
  2,604
  2,795
  2,994
  3,200
  3,415
  3,638
  3,870
  4,111
  4,363
  4,625
  4,898
  5,183
  5,480
  5,790
  6,114
  6,453
  6,806
  7,176
  7,563
  7,968
  8,391
  8,835
  9,299
  9,786
  10,295
Working capital, $m
  194
  212
  230
  249
  268
  289
  310
  332
  355
  379
  404
  429
  456
  484
  513
  543
  575
  608
  642
  678
  716
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  980
  1,032
  1,086
  1,142
Total debt, $m
  784
  910
  1,042
  1,178
  1,320
  1,468
  1,621
  1,781
  1,947
  2,119
  2,298
  2,485
  2,679
  2,881
  3,091
  3,311
  3,539
  3,778
  4,027
  4,287
  4,559
  4,843
  5,140
  5,451
  5,776
  6,116
  6,472
  6,845
  7,236
  7,645
Total liabilities, $m
  1,408
  1,534
  1,665
  1,802
  1,944
  2,091
  2,245
  2,404
  2,570
  2,743
  2,922
  3,108
  3,302
  3,504
  3,715
  3,934
  4,163
  4,402
  4,651
  4,911
  5,183
  5,467
  5,764
  6,075
  6,400
  6,740
  7,096
  7,469
  7,860
  8,269
Total equity, $m
  3,396
  3,701
  4,018
  4,347
  4,690
  5,047
  5,417
  5,802
  6,202
  6,618
  7,050
  7,500
  7,968
  8,456
  8,964
  9,493
  10,045
  10,621
  11,222
  11,850
  12,506
  13,191
  13,908
  14,658
  15,442
  16,263
  17,122
  18,022
  18,965
  19,952
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,804
  5,235
  5,683
  6,149
  6,634
  7,138
  7,662
  8,206
  8,772
  9,361
  9,972
  10,608
  11,270
  11,960
  12,679
  13,427
  14,208
  15,023
  15,873
  16,761
  17,689
  18,658
  19,672
  20,733
  21,842
  23,003
  24,218
  25,491
  26,825
  28,221
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  379
  422
  466
  513
  561
  611
  663
  717
  773
  831
  1,016
  1,079
  1,144
  1,213
  1,284
  1,358
  1,436
  1,516
  1,601
  1,689
  1,781
  1,877
  1,978
  2,083
  2,193
  2,308
  2,429
  2,555
  2,687
  2,826
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  607
  638
  670
  704
  568
  605
  642
  682
  723
  765
  810
  856
  905
  955
  1,008
  1,064
  1,121
  1,182
  1,245
  1,311
  1,380
  1,453
  1,529
  1,609
Funds from operations, $m
  823
  890
  960
  1,033
  1,109
  1,188
  1,269
  1,354
  1,443
  1,534
  1,584
  1,683
  1,787
  1,894
  2,007
  2,124
  2,246
  2,373
  2,506
  2,644
  2,789
  2,941
  3,099
  3,264
  3,438
  3,619
  3,809
  4,008
  4,216
  4,434
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Cash from operations, $m
  806
  873
  942
  1,014
  1,089
  1,167
  1,248
  1,332
  1,420
  1,511
  1,559
  1,658
  1,760
  1,867
  1,978
  2,093
  2,214
  2,340
  2,471
  2,608
  2,752
  2,901
  3,058
  3,222
  3,393
  3,572
  3,760
  3,956
  4,162
  4,378
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -250
  -274
  -298
  -324
  -351
  -378
  -407
  -437
  -468
  -500
  -534
  -568
  -605
  -642
  -682
  -723
  -765
  -810
  -856
  -905
  -955
  -1,008
  -1,064
  -1,121
  -1,182
  -1,245
  -1,311
  -1,380
  -1,453
  -1,529
New CAPEX, $m
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -206
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -510
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -401
  -431
  -462
  -494
  -528
  -562
  -598
  -636
  -674
  -715
  -757
  -800
  -847
  -894
  -944
  -996
  -1,050
  -1,107
  -1,166
  -1,229
  -1,293
  -1,362
  -1,434
  -1,508
  -1,587
  -1,669
  -1,754
  -1,844
  -1,939
  -2,039
Free cash flow, $m
  405
  442
  480
  520
  562
  605
  650
  697
  746
  796
  803
  857
  914
  973
  1,034
  1,097
  1,164
  1,233
  1,305
  1,380
  1,458
  1,539
  1,624
  1,713
  1,806
  1,904
  2,005
  2,111
  2,223
  2,339
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  526
  568
  612
  657
  704
  753
  804
  856
  911
  968
  982
  1,044
  1,108
  1,175
  1,244
  1,317
  1,393
  1,471
  1,554
  1,640
  1,730
  1,823
  1,922
  2,024
  2,131
  2,244
  2,361
  2,484
  2,613
  2,748
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -289
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -432
  -450
  -468
  -488
  -508
  -529
  -552
  -576
  -601
  -628
  -656
  -685
  -717
  -750
  -784
  -821
  -859
  -900
  -943
  -988
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  255
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  492
  264
  295
  327
  361
  396
  433
  472
  511
  553
  549
  594
  640
  687
  736
  787
  840
  895
  953
  1,012
  1,074
  1,138
  1,205
  1,274
  1,347
  1,423
  1,502
  1,585
  1,671
  1,761
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  472
  242
  256
  269
  280
  288
  293
  295
  294
  290
  261
  253
  243
  231
  216
  200
  183
  165
  147
  129
  111
  94
  79
  65
  52
  42
  32
  25
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Akamai Technologies, Inc. is engaged in providing cloud services for delivering, optimizing and securing content and business applications over the Internet. The Company is involved in offering content delivery network (CDN) services. Its services include the delivery of content, applications and software over the Internet, as well as mobile and security solutions. Its solutions include Performance and Security Solutions, Media Delivery Solutions, and Service and Support Solutions. Its Performance and Security Solutions include Web and Mobile Performance Solutions, Cloud Security Solutions, Enterprise Solutions and Network Operator Solutions. The Media Delivery Solutions offerings include Adaptive Delivery solutions, Download Delivery offerings, Infinite Media Acceleration solutions Media Services and Media Analytics. It offers a range of professional services and solutions designed to assist its customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing and managing its core offerings.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.1
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 19.9%
Total Debt to Equity 19.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
EBITDA Margin 33.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Net Profit Margin 13.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Effective Tax Rate 31.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AKAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2502.996 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Akamai Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Akamai Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AKAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Akamai Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Akamai Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Akamai Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Akamai Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKAM are equal to 64%.

Life of production assets of 6.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Akamai Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKAM is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3362.469 million for Akamai Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 170.63 million for Akamai Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Akamai Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.9 billion.

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