Intrinsic value of AK Steel Holding - AKS

Previous Close

$4.74

  Intrinsic Value

$0.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$4.74

 
Intrinsic value

$0.75

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  6,822
  7,606
  8,429
  9,293
  10,197
  11,140
  12,124
  13,147
  14,212
  15,319
  16,470
  17,665
  18,908
  20,199
  21,542
  22,938
  24,391
  25,904
  27,479
  29,120
  30,831
  32,615
  34,477
  36,421
  38,452
  40,573
  42,790
  45,109
  47,534
  50,072
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,556
  7,309
  8,101
  8,931
  9,799
  10,706
  11,651
  12,635
  13,658
  14,722
  15,827
  16,976
  18,170
  19,411
  20,702
  22,044
  23,440
  24,893
  26,407
  27,984
  29,629
  31,343
  33,133
  35,001
  36,952
  38,991
  41,121
  43,350
  45,681
  48,119
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,556
  7,309
  8,101
  8,931
  9,799
  10,706
  11,651
  12,635
  13,658
  14,722
  15,827
  16,976
  18,170
  19,411
  20,702
  22,044
  23,440
  24,893
  26,407
  27,984
  29,629
  31,343
  33,133
  35,001
  36,952
  38,991
  41,121
  43,350
  45,681
  48,119
Operating income, $m
  266
  297
  329
  362
  398
  434
  473
  513
  554
  597
  642
  689
  737
  788
  840
  895
  951
  1,010
  1,072
  1,136
  1,202
  1,272
  1,345
  1,420
  1,500
  1,582
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
  1,953
EBITDA, $m
  544
  606
  672
  741
  813
  888
  967
  1,048
  1,133
  1,222
  1,313
  1,409
  1,508
  1,611
  1,718
  1,829
  1,945
  2,066
  2,191
  2,322
  2,458
  2,601
  2,749
  2,904
  3,066
  3,235
  3,412
  3,597
  3,790
  3,993
Interest expense (income), $m
  137
  162
  162
  202
  244
  288
  334
  383
  433
  485
  539
  596
  654
  715
  779
  845
  913
  984
  1,058
  1,135
  1,216
  1,299
  1,387
  1,478
  1,573
  1,672
  1,775
  1,883
  1,997
  2,115
  2,238
Earnings before tax, $m
  104
  134
  126
  118
  109
  100
  90
  80
  69
  58
  47
  35
  22
  9
  -4
  -18
  -33
  -48
  -64
  -80
  -97
  -115
  -133
  -152
  -172
  -193
  -215
  -237
  -261
  -286
Tax expense, $m
  28
  36
  34
  32
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  13
  9
  6
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  76
  98
  92
  86
  80
  73
  66
  58
  51
  43
  34
  25
  16
  7
  -4
  -18
  -33
  -48
  -64
  -80
  -97
  -115
  -133
  -152
  -172
  -193
  -215
  -237
  -261
  -286

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,020
  5,596
  6,203
  6,838
  7,503
  8,197
  8,921
  9,674
  10,458
  11,272
  12,119
  12,999
  13,913
  14,863
  15,851
  16,879
  17,948
  19,061
  20,220
  21,428
  22,687
  24,000
  25,370
  26,800
  28,294
  29,855
  31,487
  33,193
  34,977
  36,845
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,020
  5,596
  6,203
  6,838
  7,503
  8,197
  8,921
  9,674
  10,458
  11,272
  12,119
  12,999
  13,913
  14,863
  15,851
  16,879
  17,948
  19,061
  20,220
  21,428
  22,687
  24,000
  25,370
  26,800
  28,294
  29,855
  31,487
  33,193
  34,977
  36,845
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
  1.359
Average production assets, $m
  2,251
  2,510
  2,782
  3,067
  3,365
  3,676
  4,001
  4,339
  4,690
  5,055
  5,435
  5,830
  6,240
  6,666
  7,109
  7,570
  8,049
  8,548
  9,068
  9,610
  10,174
  10,763
  11,378
  12,019
  12,689
  13,389
  14,121
  14,886
  15,686
  16,524
Working capital, $m
  1,160
  1,293
  1,433
  1,580
  1,733
  1,894
  2,061
  2,235
  2,416
  2,604
  2,800
  3,003
  3,214
  3,434
  3,662
  3,900
  4,147
  4,404
  4,671
  4,950
  5,241
  5,545
  5,861
  6,192
  6,537
  6,897
  7,274
  7,669
  8,081
  8,512
Total debt, $m
  2,109
  2,627
  3,173
  3,745
  4,344
  4,968
  5,620
  6,298
  7,003
  7,736
  8,498
  9,290
  10,112
  10,968
  11,857
  12,782
  13,744
  14,745
  15,789
  16,876
  18,009
  19,190
  20,423
  21,711
  23,055
  24,460
  25,929
  27,464
  29,070
  30,751
Total liabilities, $m
  4,518
  5,037
  5,582
  6,154
  6,753
  7,378
  8,029
  8,707
  9,412
  10,145
  10,907
  11,699
  12,522
  13,377
  14,266
  15,191
  16,153
  17,155
  18,198
  19,285
  20,418
  21,600
  22,833
  24,120
  25,465
  26,869
  28,338
  29,873
  31,480
  33,160
Total equity, $m
  502
  560
  620
  684
  750
  820
  892
  967
  1,046
  1,127
  1,212
  1,300
  1,391
  1,486
  1,585
  1,688
  1,795
  1,906
  2,022
  2,143
  2,269
  2,400
  2,537
  2,680
  2,829
  2,985
  3,149
  3,319
  3,498
  3,684
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,020
  5,597
  6,202
  6,838
  7,503
  8,198
  8,921
  9,674
  10,458
  11,272
  12,119
  12,999
  13,913
  14,863
  15,851
  16,879
  17,948
  19,061
  20,220
  21,428
  22,687
  24,000
  25,370
  26,800
  28,294
  29,854
  31,487
  33,192
  34,978
  36,844
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.200
  4.690
  5.120
  5.480
  5.790
  6.060
  6.300
  6.510
  6.700
  6.860
  7.010
  7.150
  7.270
  7.380
  7.480
  7.570
  7.660
  7.740
  7.810
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  98
  92
  86
  80
  73
  66
  58
  51
  43
  34
  25
  16
  7
  -4
  -18
  -33
  -48
  -64
  -80
  -97
  -115
  -133
  -152
  -172
  -193
  -215
  -237
  -261
  -286
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  278
  310
  343
  379
  415
  454
  494
  536
  579
  624
  671
  720
  770
  823
  878
  935
  994
  1,055
  1,120
  1,186
  1,256
  1,329
  1,405
  1,484
  1,567
  1,653
  1,743
  1,838
  1,937
  2,040
Funds from operations, $m
  354
  408
  436
  465
  495
  527
  560
  594
  630
  667
  705
  745
  786
  830
  873
  916
  961
  1,007
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,214
  1,272
  1,332
  1,394
  1,460
  1,529
  1,601
  1,676
  1,754
Change in working capital, $m
  126
  133
  140
  147
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  203
  211
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  303
  317
  330
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
Cash from operations, $m
  227
  275
  296
  318
  342
  366
  393
  420
  449
  478
  509
  542
  575
  610
  645
  679
  714
  750
  788
  827
  868
  911
  955
  1,001
  1,049
  1,099
  1,152
  1,206
  1,263
  1,323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -248
  -278
  -310
  -343
  -379
  -415
  -454
  -494
  -536
  -579
  -624
  -671
  -720
  -770
  -823
  -878
  -935
  -994
  -1,055
  -1,120
  -1,186
  -1,256
  -1,329
  -1,405
  -1,484
  -1,567
  -1,653
  -1,743
  -1,838
  -1,937
New CAPEX, $m
  -243
  -258
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -395
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -479
  -499
  -520
  -542
  -565
  -589
  -614
  -641
  -670
  -700
  -732
  -765
  -800
  -838
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -491
  -536
  -582
  -628
  -677
  -726
  -778
  -832
  -887
  -944
  -1,004
  -1,066
  -1,130
  -1,196
  -1,266
  -1,339
  -1,414
  -1,493
  -1,575
  -1,662
  -1,751
  -1,845
  -1,943
  -2,046
  -2,154
  -2,267
  -2,385
  -2,508
  -2,638
  -2,775
Free cash flow, $m
  -263
  -262
  -286
  -311
  -335
  -360
  -386
  -412
  -438
  -466
  -494
  -524
  -554
  -586
  -621
  -660
  -700
  -743
  -787
  -834
  -883
  -934
  -988
  -1,045
  -1,105
  -1,167
  -1,233
  -1,302
  -1,375
  -1,451
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  519
  546
  572
  598
  625
  651
  678
  705
  733
  762
  792
  823
  855
  889
  925
  962
  1,002
  1,043
  1,087
  1,133
  1,182
  1,233
  1,287
  1,345
  1,405
  1,468
  1,536
  1,606
  1,681
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  471
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  17
  28
  39
  51
  63
  75
  88
  103
  121
  140
  159
  180
  201
  223
  246
  270
  295
  322
  349
  378
  408
  439
  472
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  470
  519
  546
  572
  598
  625
  657
  695
  733
  772
  813
  855
  898
  943
  992
  1,046
  1,102
  1,161
  1,223
  1,288
  1,356
  1,428
  1,503
  1,582
  1,667
  1,754
  1,846
  1,944
  2,045
  2,153
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  206
  257
  260
  262
  263
  265
  272
  283
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  357
  371
  386
  402
  418
  436
  454
  473
  494
  515
  538
  562
  587
  613
  641
  671
  702
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -547
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -103
  -121
  -140
  -159
  -180
  -201
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -322
  -349
  -378
  -408
  -439
  -472
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -340
  199
  199
  198
  197
  195
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  252
  262
  268
  265
  262
  259
  256
  253
  250
  248
  245
  242
  240
  238
  236
  233
  231
  230
Discount rate, %
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.50
  18.38
  19.30
  20.26
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
  24.63
  25.86
  27.15
  28.51
  29.94
  31.43
  33.01
  34.66
  36.39
  38.21
  40.12
  42.12
  44.23
  46.44
  48.76
  51.20
  53.76
  56.45
  59.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -297
  150
  128
  107
  88
  71
  58
  47
  38
  30
  23
  17
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  49.6
  48.7
  47.3
  45.6
  43.7
  41.5
  39.2
  36.9
  34.5
  32.1
  29.6
  27.2
  24.9
  22.6
  20.5
  18.5
  16.6
  14.9
  13.3
  11.8
  10.5
  9.3
  8.2
  7.2

AK Steel Holding Corporation is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels, and tubular products through its subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation (AK Steel). The Company also operates blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces. As of December 31, 2016, its operations included eight steelmaking and finishing plants, two coke plants and two tube manufacturing plants across states, including Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and a tube manufacturing plant in Mexico. These operations produce flat-rolled carbon, specialty stainless and electrical steels that it sells in sheet and strip form, and carbon and stainless steel that it finishes into welded steel tubing. It also produces metallurgical coal through its subsidiary, AK Coal Resources, Inc. In addition, the Company operates trading companies in Mexico and Europe that buy and sell steel and steel products and other materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AK Steel Holding (AKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -186.1
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book -5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -668%
Total Debt to Equity -668%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Net Profit Margin -0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 4.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6080.5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AK Steel Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AK Steel Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.4%, whose default value for AKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AK Steel Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AK Steel Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for AK Steel Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AK Steel Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKS are equal to 33%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AK Steel Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKS is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-44.6 million for AK Steel Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 315.512 million for AK Steel Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AK Steel Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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