Intrinsic value of AK Steel Holding - AKS

Previous Close

$4.87

  Intrinsic Value

$0.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$4.87

 
Intrinsic value

$0.32

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  6,288
  6,512
  6,753
  7,012
  7,289
  7,584
  7,899
  8,233
  8,588
  8,965
  9,363
  9,784
  10,229
  10,699
  11,195
  11,717
  12,269
  12,849
  13,461
  14,105
  14,783
  15,496
  16,246
  17,035
  17,865
  18,738
  19,656
  20,620
  21,634
  22,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,041
  6,255
  6,486
  6,734
  6,998
  7,281
  7,582
  7,901
  8,241
  8,600
  8,950
  9,353
  9,778
  10,227
  10,701
  11,201
  11,728
  12,283
  12,868
  13,483
  14,131
  14,813
  15,531
  16,285
  17,079
  17,913
  18,790
  19,712
  20,681
  21,700
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,041
  6,255
  6,486
  6,734
  6,998
  7,281
  7,582
  7,901
  8,241
  8,600
  8,950
  9,353
  9,778
  10,227
  10,701
  11,201
  11,728
  12,283
  12,868
  13,483
  14,131
  14,813
  15,531
  16,285
  17,079
  17,913
  18,790
  19,712
  20,681
  21,700
Operating income, $m
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  683
  716
  750
  787
  825
  866
  908
  953
  1,000
EBITDA, $m
  501
  519
  539
  559
  581
  605
  630
  657
  685
  715
  747
  780
  816
  853
  893
  934
  978
  1,025
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
  1,359
  1,425
  1,494
  1,568
  1,644
  1,725
  1,810
Interest expense (income), $m
  137
  162
  123
  134
  146
  158
  172
  186
  202
  218
  236
  254
  274
  294
  316
  339
  363
  389
  416
  444
  474
  506
  539
  574
  611
  649
  690
  733
  778
  825
  875
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  133
  133
  132
  132
  131
  131
  130
  129
  129
  158
  157
  156
  155
  154
  153
  152
  150
  149
  147
  145
  144
  142
  140
  138
  135
  133
  131
  128
  125
Tax expense, $m
  23
  36
  36
  36
  36
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  43
  42
  42
  42
  42
  41
  41
  41
  40
  40
  39
  39
  38
  38
  37
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
Net income, $m
  61
  97
  97
  97
  96
  96
  95
  95
  94
  94
  116
  115
  114
  113
  112
  112
  111
  110
  108
  107
  106
  105
  103
  102
  100
  99
  97
  95
  93
  91

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,444
  4,602
  4,772
  4,955
  5,151
  5,360
  5,582
  5,819
  6,070
  6,335
  6,617
  6,914
  7,229
  7,561
  7,911
  8,281
  8,670
  9,081
  9,513
  9,968
  10,447
  10,951
  11,481
  12,039
  12,626
  13,243
  13,891
  14,573
  15,289
  16,042
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,444
  4,602
  4,772
  4,955
  5,151
  5,360
  5,582
  5,819
  6,070
  6,335
  6,617
  6,914
  7,229
  7,561
  7,911
  8,281
  8,670
  9,081
  9,513
  9,968
  10,447
  10,951
  11,481
  12,039
  12,626
  13,243
  13,891
  14,573
  15,289
  16,042
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
  1.415
Average production assets, $m
  2,245
  2,325
  2,411
  2,503
  2,602
  2,708
  2,820
  2,939
  3,066
  3,200
  3,343
  3,493
  3,652
  3,819
  3,996
  4,183
  4,380
  4,587
  4,806
  5,035
  5,277
  5,532
  5,800
  6,082
  6,378
  6,690
  7,017
  7,361
  7,723
  8,104
Working capital, $m
  472
  488
  506
  526
  547
  569
  592
  618
  644
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  840
  879
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,058
  1,109
  1,162
  1,218
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,474
  1,547
  1,623
  1,702
Total debt, $m
  1,597
  1,740
  1,893
  2,058
  2,234
  2,422
  2,622
  2,835
  3,061
  3,300
  3,553
  3,821
  4,104
  4,403
  4,718
  5,051
  5,401
  5,771
  6,160
  6,569
  7,000
  7,454
  7,931
  8,433
  8,961
  9,516
  10,100
  10,713
  11,358
  12,036
Total liabilities, $m
  3,999
  4,142
  4,295
  4,460
  4,636
  4,824
  5,024
  5,237
  5,463
  5,702
  5,955
  6,223
  6,506
  6,805
  7,120
  7,453
  7,803
  8,173
  8,562
  8,971
  9,402
  9,856
  10,333
  10,835
  11,363
  11,918
  12,502
  13,115
  13,760
  14,438
Total equity, $m
  444
  460
  477
  496
  515
  536
  558
  582
  607
  634
  662
  691
  723
  756
  791
  828
  867
  908
  951
  997
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
  1,389
  1,457
  1,529
  1,604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,443
  4,602
  4,772
  4,956
  5,151
  5,360
  5,582
  5,819
  6,070
  6,336
  6,617
  6,914
  7,229
  7,561
  7,911
  8,281
  8,670
  9,081
  9,513
  9,968
  10,447
  10,951
  11,481
  12,039
  12,626
  13,242
  13,891
  14,572
  15,289
  16,042
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.590
  3.780
  3.970
  4.150
  4.340
  4.520
  4.700
  4.870
  5.040
  5.210
  5.370
  5.530
  5.680
  5.820
  5.960
  6.100
  6.230
  6.350
  6.480
  6.590
  6.700
  6.810
  6.910
  7.000
  7.100
  7.190
  7.270
  7.350
  7.430
  7.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  97
  97
  97
  96
  96
  95
  95
  94
  94
  116
  115
  114
  113
  112
  112
  111
  110
  108
  107
  106
  105
  103
  102
  100
  99
  97
  95
  93
  91
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  255
  263
  272
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  337
  351
  334
  349
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
  669
  702
  736
  772
  810
Funds from operations, $m
  316
  360
  369
  378
  387
  397
  408
  420
  432
  445
  450
  464
  479
  495
  512
  530
  549
  568
  589
  611
  634
  658
  683
  710
  738
  768
  799
  831
  866
  902
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
Cash from operations, $m
  301
  344
  351
  358
  366
  375
  385
  394
  405
  416
  420
  433
  446
  460
  475
  491
  507
  525
  543
  563
  583
  604
  627
  651
  676
  702
  730
  759
  790
  822
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -669
  -702
  -736
  -772
New CAPEX, $m
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -380
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -292
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -383
  -401
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -587
  -615
  -645
  -677
  -711
  -746
  -783
  -821
  -862
  -904
  -950
  -997
  -1,046
  -1,098
  -1,152
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  39
  32
  25
  17
  9
  1
  -7
  -16
  -25
  -42
  -52
  -62
  -73
  -84
  -96
  -108
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -163
  -178
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -247
  -266
  -287
  -308
  -331
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -513
  142
  153
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  315
  333
  351
  369
  389
  410
  431
  454
  477
  502
  528
  555
  584
  613
  645
  678
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  599
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  86
  142
  153
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  315
  333
  351
  369
  389
  410
  431
  454
  477
  502
  528
  555
  584
  613
  645
  678
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  182
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
  206
  210
  215
  211
  216
  221
  226
  231
  237
  243
  249
  255
  262
  269
  276
  283
  291
  299
  308
  317
  327
  336
  347
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -660
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -565
  166
  168
  171
  174
  177
  179
  182
  185
  188
  183
  186
  189
  193
  196
  200
  204
  208
  212
  216
  221
  225
  230
  235
  241
  246
  252
  258
  265
  272
Discount rate, %
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -495
  126
  109
  94
  79
  66
  54
  43
  34
  26
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

AK Steel Holding Corporation is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels, and tubular products through its subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation (AK Steel). The Company also operates blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces. As of December 31, 2016, its operations included eight steelmaking and finishing plants, two coke plants and two tube manufacturing plants across states, including Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and a tube manufacturing plant in Mexico. These operations produce flat-rolled carbon, specialty stainless and electrical steels that it sells in sheet and strip form, and carbon and stainless steel that it finishes into welded steel tubing. It also produces metallurgical coal through its subsidiary, AK Coal Resources, Inc. In addition, the Company operates trading companies in Mexico and Europe that buy and sell steel and steel products and other materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AK Steel Holding (AKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -191.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book -5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -668%
Total Debt to Equity -668%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Net Profit Margin -0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 4.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6081 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AK Steel Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AK Steel Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14%, whose default value for AKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AK Steel Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AK Steel Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for AK Steel Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AK Steel Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKS are equal to 35.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AK Steel Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKS is equal to 7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-216 million for AK Steel Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 315 million for AK Steel Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AK Steel Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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