Intrinsic value of AK Steel Holding Corporation - AKS

Previous Close

$2.24

  Intrinsic Value

$7.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+232%

Previous close

$2.24

 
Intrinsic value

$7.43

 
Up/down potential

+232%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.18
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.32
  6.18
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  7,643
  8,514
  9,429
  10,388
  11,392
  12,439
  13,530
  14,666
  15,848
  17,076
  18,352
  19,679
  21,057
  22,490
  23,980
  25,530
  27,142
  28,821
  30,569
  32,390
  34,289
  36,270
  38,337
  40,496
  42,750
  45,105
  47,567
  50,142
  52,835
  55,654
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,562
  7,306
  8,088
  8,908
  9,765
  10,660
  11,593
  12,564
  13,573
  14,623
  15,684
  16,818
  17,996
  19,221
  20,494
  21,818
  23,196
  24,630
  26,125
  27,681
  29,304
  30,997
  32,764
  34,608
  36,535
  38,547
  40,652
  42,852
  45,154
  47,563
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  623
  637
  651
  665
  680
  695
  710
  726
  742
  758
  775
  792
  809
  827
  845
  864
  883
  902
  922
  943
  963
  985
  1,006
  1,028
  1,051
  1,074
  1,098
  1,122
  1,147
  1,172
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,185
  7,943
  8,739
  9,573
  10,445
  11,355
  12,303
  13,290
  14,315
  15,381
  16,459
  17,610
  18,805
  20,048
  21,339
  22,682
  24,079
  25,532
  27,047
  28,624
  30,267
  31,982
  33,770
  35,636
  37,586
  39,621
  41,750
  43,974
  46,301
  48,735
Operating income, $m
  458
  571
  690
  815
  946
  1,083
  1,227
  1,376
  1,532
  1,694
  1,893
  2,069
  2,252
  2,443
  2,641
  2,848
  3,063
  3,288
  3,522
  3,766
  4,022
  4,289
  4,567
  4,859
  5,164
  5,484
  5,818
  6,168
  6,535
  6,919
EBITDA, $m
  752
  895
  1,046
  1,204
  1,370
  1,544
  1,725
  1,914
  2,110
  2,315
  2,528
  2,750
  2,981
  3,221
  3,471
  3,731
  4,002
  4,285
  4,580
  4,887
  5,208
  5,544
  5,894
  6,261
  6,644
  7,044
  7,464
  7,903
  8,363
  8,845
Interest expense (income), $m
  137
  148
  158
  196
  237
  279
  323
  369
  418
  468
  520
  574
  630
  689
  750
  813
  878
  947
  1,018
  1,092
  1,169
  1,249
  1,333
  1,421
  1,512
  1,607
  1,706
  1,810
  1,919
  2,032
  2,151
Earnings before tax, $m
  310
  413
  493
  578
  667
  760
  857
  959
  1,065
  1,175
  1,319
  1,439
  1,563
  1,693
  1,828
  1,969
  2,116
  2,270
  2,430
  2,597
  2,772
  2,955
  3,147
  3,347
  3,557
  3,777
  4,008
  4,249
  4,503
  4,768
Tax expense, $m
  84
  111
  133
  156
  180
  205
  232
  259
  287
  317
  356
  388
  422
  457
  494
  532
  571
  613
  656
  701
  749
  798
  850
  904
  960
  1,020
  1,082
  1,147
  1,216
  1,287
Net income, $m
  227
  301
  360
  422
  487
  555
  626
  700
  777
  857
  963
  1,050
  1,141
  1,236
  1,335
  1,437
  1,545
  1,657
  1,774
  1,896
  2,024
  2,157
  2,297
  2,444
  2,597
  2,757
  2,926
  3,102
  3,287
  3,481

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,062
  5,638
  6,244
  6,880
  7,544
  8,238
  8,960
  9,713
  10,495
  11,309
  12,154
  13,032
  13,945
  14,894
  15,881
  16,907
  17,975
  19,086
  20,244
  21,451
  22,708
  24,020
  25,389
  26,818
  28,311
  29,871
  31,501
  33,207
  34,990
  36,857
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,062
  5,638
  6,244
  6,880
  7,544
  8,238
  8,960
  9,713
  10,495
  11,309
  12,154
  13,032
  13,945
  14,894
  15,881
  16,907
  17,975
  19,086
  20,244
  21,451
  22,708
  24,020
  25,389
  26,818
  28,311
  29,871
  31,501
  33,207
  34,990
  36,857
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
Average production assets, $m
  2,354
  2,622
  2,904
  3,200
  3,509
  3,831
  4,167
  4,517
  4,881
  5,259
  5,653
  6,061
  6,486
  6,927
  7,386
  7,863
  8,360
  8,877
  9,415
  9,976
  10,561
  11,171
  11,808
  12,473
  13,167
  13,892
  14,651
  15,444
  16,273
  17,141
Working capital, $m
  1,146
  1,277
  1,414
  1,558
  1,709
  1,866
  2,030
  2,200
  2,377
  2,561
  2,753
  2,952
  3,159
  3,374
  3,597
  3,829
  4,071
  4,323
  4,585
  4,859
  5,143
  5,441
  5,751
  6,074
  6,412
  6,766
  7,135
  7,521
  7,925
  8,348
Total debt, $m
  2,133
  2,652
  3,198
  3,770
  4,368
  4,992
  5,642
  6,319
  7,023
  7,756
  8,516
  9,307
  10,129
  10,983
  11,871
  12,794
  13,755
  14,756
  15,798
  16,883
  18,015
  19,196
  20,428
  21,714
  23,058
  24,462
  25,929
  27,464
  29,069
  30,749
Total liabilities, $m
  4,555
  5,074
  5,620
  6,192
  6,790
  7,414
  8,064
  8,741
  9,446
  10,178
  10,939
  11,729
  12,551
  13,405
  14,293
  15,216
  16,177
  17,178
  18,220
  19,306
  20,437
  21,618
  22,850
  24,136
  25,480
  26,884
  28,351
  29,886
  31,491
  33,171
Total equity, $m
  506
  564
  624
  688
  754
  824
  896
  971
  1,050
  1,131
  1,215
  1,303
  1,395
  1,489
  1,588
  1,691
  1,797
  1,909
  2,024
  2,145
  2,271
  2,402
  2,539
  2,682
  2,831
  2,987
  3,150
  3,321
  3,499
  3,686
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,061
  5,638
  6,244
  6,880
  7,544
  8,238
  8,960
  9,712
  10,496
  11,309
  12,154
  13,032
  13,946
  14,894
  15,881
  16,907
  17,974
  19,087
  20,244
  21,451
  22,708
  24,020
  25,389
  26,818
  28,311
  29,871
  31,501
  33,207
  34,990
  36,857
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.210
  4.700
  5.120
  5.480
  5.790
  6.060
  6.300
  6.510
  6.690
  6.860
  7.010
  7.140
  7.260
  7.370
  7.470
  7.570
  7.650
  7.730
  7.800
  7.870
  7.930
  7.990
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.310
  8.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  227
  301
  360
  422
  487
  555
  626
  700
  777
  857
  963
  1,050
  1,141
  1,236
  1,335
  1,437
  1,545
  1,657
  1,774
  1,896
  2,024
  2,157
  2,297
  2,444
  2,597
  2,757
  2,926
  3,102
  3,287
  3,481
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  294
  325
  356
  389
  424
  460
  498
  537
  578
  621
  635
  681
  729
  778
  830
  884
  939
  997
  1,058
  1,121
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327
  1,401
  1,479
  1,561
  1,646
  1,735
  1,828
  1,926
Funds from operations, $m
  521
  626
  716
  812
  911
  1,015
  1,124
  1,237
  1,355
  1,478
  1,598
  1,731
  1,870
  2,014
  2,164
  2,321
  2,484
  2,654
  2,832
  3,017
  3,211
  3,413
  3,624
  3,845
  4,076
  4,318
  4,572
  4,837
  5,115
  5,407
Change in working capital, $m
  124
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
Cash from operations, $m
  397
  495
  579
  668
  761
  858
  960
  1,067
  1,178
  1,294
  1,407
  1,532
  1,663
  1,799
  1,941
  2,089
  2,242
  2,402
  2,570
  2,744
  2,926
  3,116
  3,314
  3,521
  3,738
  3,965
  4,202
  4,451
  4,711
  4,984
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -236
  -264
  -295
  -326
  -360
  -394
  -430
  -468
  -508
  -548
  -591
  -635
  -681
  -729
  -778
  -830
  -884
  -939
  -997
  -1,058
  -1,121
  -1,187
  -1,255
  -1,327
  -1,401
  -1,479
  -1,561
  -1,646
  -1,735
  -1,828
New CAPEX, $m
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -336
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -441
  -459
  -477
  -497
  -517
  -538
  -561
  -585
  -610
  -637
  -665
  -694
  -725
  -758
  -793
  -830
  -868
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -490
  -532
  -577
  -622
  -669
  -717
  -766
  -818
  -872
  -926
  -984
  -1,044
  -1,106
  -1,170
  -1,237
  -1,307
  -1,381
  -1,456
  -1,535
  -1,619
  -1,706
  -1,797
  -1,892
  -1,992
  -2,095
  -2,204
  -2,319
  -2,439
  -2,565
  -2,696
Free cash flow, $m
  -93
  -37
  3
  46
  92
  142
  194
  249
  307
  367
  423
  489
  558
  629
  704
  781
  862
  946
  1,034
  1,125
  1,220
  1,319
  1,422
  1,530
  1,642
  1,760
  1,883
  2,012
  2,147
  2,288
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  140
  519
  546
  572
  598
  624
  650
  677
  704
  732
  761
  791
  822
  854
  888
  924
  961
  1,000
  1,042
  1,086
  1,132
  1,181
  1,232
  1,286
  1,344
  1,404
  1,468
  1,535
  1,605
  1,680
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  320
  519
  546
  572
  598
  624
  650
  677
  704
  732
  761
  791
  822
  854
  888
  924
  961
  1,000
  1,042
  1,086
  1,132
  1,181
  1,232
  1,286
  1,344
  1,404
  1,468
  1,535
  1,605
  1,680
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  227
  482
  548
  618
  690
  766
  844
  926
  1,011
  1,099
  1,183
  1,279
  1,379
  1,483
  1,592
  1,705
  1,823
  1,947
  2,076
  2,211
  2,352
  2,499
  2,654
  2,816
  2,986
  3,164
  3,351
  3,546
  3,752
  3,967
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -406
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -187
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -179
  424
  488
  554
  624
  696
  772
  851
  933
  1,018
  1,099
  1,191
  1,288
  1,388
  1,493
  1,602
  1,716
  1,835
  1,960
  2,090
  2,226
  2,368
  2,517
  2,673
  2,837
  3,008
  3,188
  3,376
  3,573
  3,781
Discount rate, %
  12.30
  12.92
  13.56
  14.24
  14.95
  15.70
  16.48
  17.31
  18.17
  19.08
  20.04
  21.04
  22.09
  23.19
  24.35
  25.57
  26.85
  28.19
  29.60
  31.08
  32.64
  34.27
  35.98
  37.78
  39.67
  41.65
  43.73
  45.92
  48.22
  50.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -160
  332
  333
  325
  311
  290
  265
  237
  208
  178
  147
  121
  96
  75
  57
  42
  30
  21
  14
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8

AK Steel Holding Corporation is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels, and tubular products through its subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation (AK Steel). The Company also operates blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces. As of December 31, 2016, its operations included eight steelmaking and finishing plants, two coke plants and two tube manufacturing plants across states, including Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and a tube manufacturing plant in Mexico. These operations produce flat-rolled carbon, specialty stainless and electrical steels that it sells in sheet and strip form, and carbon and stainless steel that it finishes into welded steel tubing. It also produces metallurgical coal through its subsidiary, AK Coal Resources, Inc. In addition, the Company operates trading companies in Mexico and Europe that buy and sell steel and steel products and other materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -88
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -668%
Total Debt to Equity -668%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Net Profit Margin -0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 4.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6818 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AK Steel Holding Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AK Steel Holding Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.3%, whose default value for AKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AK Steel Holding Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AK Steel Holding Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $610 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for AK Steel Holding Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AK Steel Holding Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKS are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AK Steel Holding Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKS is equal to 15%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $99.9 million for AK Steel Holding Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 316.308 million for AK Steel Holding Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AK Steel Holding Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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