Intrinsic value of Albemarle - ALB

Previous Close

$84.97

  Intrinsic Value

$99.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$84.97

 
Intrinsic value

$99.59

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  3,557
  4,081
  4,642
  5,240
  5,873
  6,541
  7,244
  7,980
  8,750
  9,553
  10,391
  11,263
  12,169
  13,112
  14,091
  15,109
  16,167
  17,267
  18,410
  19,599
  20,836
  22,124
  23,466
  24,864
  26,321
  27,841
  29,428
  31,084
  32,814
  34,621
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,305
  2,614
  2,946
  3,299
  3,673
  4,068
  4,483
  4,918
  5,373
  5,848
  6,140
  6,655
  7,190
  7,747
  8,326
  8,927
  9,552
  10,202
  10,878
  11,580
  12,311
  13,072
  13,865
  14,691
  15,552
  16,450
  17,388
  18,366
  19,388
  20,456
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  487
  498
  509
  520
  532
  544
  555
  568
  580
  593
  606
  619
  633
  647
  661
  676
  691
  706
  721
  737
  753
  770
  787
  804
  822
  840
  858
  877
  897
  916
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,792
  3,112
  3,455
  3,819
  4,205
  4,612
  5,038
  5,486
  5,953
  6,441
  6,746
  7,274
  7,823
  8,394
  8,987
  9,603
  10,243
  10,908
  11,599
  12,317
  13,064
  13,842
  14,652
  15,495
  16,374
  17,290
  18,246
  19,243
  20,285
  21,372
Operating income, $m
  765
  968
  1,187
  1,420
  1,668
  1,930
  2,205
  2,494
  2,797
  3,113
  3,645
  3,989
  4,346
  4,718
  5,104
  5,506
  5,924
  6,359
  6,811
  7,282
  7,772
  8,282
  8,814
  9,369
  9,947
  10,551
  11,182
  11,840
  12,529
  13,249
EBITDA, $m
  1,145
  1,374
  1,621
  1,884
  2,163
  2,458
  2,768
  3,094
  3,435
  3,791
  4,162
  4,549
  4,951
  5,370
  5,805
  6,258
  6,728
  7,217
  7,727
  8,256
  8,808
  9,382
  9,981
  10,605
  11,256
  11,936
  12,645
  13,386
  14,161
  14,970
Interest expense (income), $m
  97
  101
  133
  168
  205
  245
  287
  332
  378
  427
  478
  532
  588
  646
  706
  769
  834
  901
  972
  1,045
  1,121
  1,200
  1,282
  1,368
  1,457
  1,550
  1,647
  1,748
  1,854
  1,964
  2,079
Earnings before tax, $m
  664
  835
  1,019
  1,215
  1,423
  1,642
  1,873
  2,116
  2,369
  2,634
  3,113
  3,401
  3,700
  4,012
  4,336
  4,672
  5,023
  5,387
  5,766
  6,161
  6,572
  7,000
  7,446
  7,912
  8,397
  8,904
  9,434
  9,987
  10,565
  11,170
Tax expense, $m
  179
  225
  275
  328
  384
  443
  506
  571
  640
  711
  841
  918
  999
  1,083
  1,171
  1,262
  1,356
  1,455
  1,557
  1,663
  1,774
  1,890
  2,010
  2,136
  2,267
  2,404
  2,547
  2,696
  2,853
  3,016
Net income, $m
  485
  610
  744
  887
  1,039
  1,199
  1,368
  1,544
  1,730
  1,923
  2,273
  2,483
  2,701
  2,929
  3,165
  3,411
  3,667
  3,933
  4,209
  4,497
  4,797
  5,110
  5,436
  5,775
  6,130
  6,500
  6,886
  7,290
  7,713
  8,154

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,551
  9,810
  11,159
  12,595
  14,117
  15,724
  17,412
  19,182
  21,033
  22,965
  24,978
  27,074
  29,253
  31,519
  33,873
  36,320
  38,863
  41,506
  44,254
  47,113
  50,087
  53,183
  56,408
  59,768
  63,272
  66,926
  70,739
  74,720
  78,879
  83,224
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,551
  9,810
  11,159
  12,595
  14,117
  15,724
  17,412
  19,182
  21,033
  22,965
  24,978
  27,074
  29,253
  31,519
  33,873
  36,320
  38,863
  41,506
  44,254
  47,113
  50,087
  53,183
  56,408
  59,768
  63,272
  66,926
  70,739
  74,720
  78,879
  83,224
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
Average production assets, $m
  3,945
  4,526
  5,148
  5,811
  6,513
  7,254
  8,033
  8,850
  9,704
  10,595
  11,524
  12,490
  13,496
  14,541
  15,627
  16,756
  17,929
  19,149
  20,417
  21,735
  23,107
  24,536
  26,024
  27,574
  29,190
  30,876
  32,635
  34,472
  36,390
  38,395
Working capital, $m
  651
  747
  849
  959
  1,075
  1,197
  1,326
  1,460
  1,601
  1,748
  1,902
  2,061
  2,227
  2,399
  2,579
  2,765
  2,959
  3,160
  3,369
  3,587
  3,813
  4,049
  4,294
  4,550
  4,817
  5,095
  5,385
  5,688
  6,005
  6,336
Total debt, $m
  2,421
  3,054
  3,732
  4,455
  5,221
  6,029
  6,878
  7,768
  8,699
  9,671
  10,684
  11,738
  12,834
  13,973
  15,158
  16,389
  17,668
  18,997
  20,380
  21,817
  23,313
  24,871
  26,493
  28,183
  29,945
  31,783
  33,701
  35,704
  37,796
  39,981
Total liabilities, $m
  4,301
  4,934
  5,613
  6,335
  7,101
  7,909
  8,758
  9,649
  10,580
  11,551
  12,564
  13,618
  14,714
  15,854
  17,038
  18,269
  19,548
  20,878
  22,260
  23,698
  25,194
  26,751
  28,373
  30,064
  31,826
  33,664
  35,582
  37,584
  39,676
  41,862
Total equity, $m
  4,250
  4,876
  5,546
  6,260
  7,016
  7,815
  8,654
  9,534
  10,454
  11,414
  12,414
  13,456
  14,539
  15,665
  16,835
  18,051
  19,315
  20,629
  21,994
  23,415
  24,893
  26,432
  28,035
  29,705
  31,446
  33,262
  35,157
  37,136
  39,203
  41,362
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,551
  9,810
  11,159
  12,595
  14,117
  15,724
  17,412
  19,183
  21,034
  22,965
  24,978
  27,074
  29,253
  31,519
  33,873
  36,320
  38,863
  41,507
  44,254
  47,113
  50,087
  53,183
  56,408
  59,769
  63,272
  66,926
  70,739
  74,720
  78,879
  83,224
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.570
  0.630
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  485
  610
  744
  887
  1,039
  1,199
  1,368
  1,544
  1,730
  1,923
  2,273
  2,483
  2,701
  2,929
  3,165
  3,411
  3,667
  3,933
  4,209
  4,497
  4,797
  5,110
  5,436
  5,775
  6,130
  6,500
  6,886
  7,290
  7,713
  8,154
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  380
  406
  434
  464
  495
  528
  563
  600
  638
  678
  517
  560
  605
  652
  701
  751
  804
  859
  916
  975
  1,036
  1,100
  1,167
  1,236
  1,309
  1,385
  1,463
  1,546
  1,632
  1,722
Funds from operations, $m
  865
  1,016
  1,178
  1,351
  1,534
  1,727
  1,931
  2,145
  2,368
  2,601
  2,790
  3,043
  3,307
  3,581
  3,866
  4,162
  4,471
  4,791
  5,125
  5,472
  5,834
  6,210
  6,603
  7,012
  7,439
  7,885
  8,350
  8,836
  9,344
  9,876
Change in working capital, $m
  89
  96
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  236
  245
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
Cash from operations, $m
  776
  920
  1,075
  1,241
  1,418
  1,605
  1,802
  2,010
  2,227
  2,454
  2,636
  2,883
  3,141
  3,408
  3,687
  3,976
  4,277
  4,590
  4,916
  5,254
  5,607
  5,974
  6,357
  6,756
  7,172
  7,606
  8,060
  8,533
  9,028
  9,545
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -153
  -177
  -203
  -231
  -261
  -292
  -325
  -360
  -397
  -435
  -475
  -517
  -560
  -605
  -652
  -701
  -751
  -804
  -859
  -916
  -975
  -1,036
  -1,100
  -1,167
  -1,236
  -1,309
  -1,385
  -1,463
  -1,546
  -1,632
New CAPEX, $m
  -537
  -581
  -622
  -663
  -702
  -741
  -779
  -817
  -854
  -891
  -929
  -967
  -1,005
  -1,045
  -1,086
  -1,129
  -1,173
  -1,219
  -1,268
  -1,319
  -1,372
  -1,428
  -1,488
  -1,550
  -1,616
  -1,686
  -1,759
  -1,837
  -1,918
  -2,005
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -690
  -758
  -825
  -894
  -963
  -1,033
  -1,104
  -1,177
  -1,251
  -1,326
  -1,404
  -1,484
  -1,565
  -1,650
  -1,738
  -1,830
  -1,924
  -2,023
  -2,127
  -2,235
  -2,347
  -2,464
  -2,588
  -2,717
  -2,852
  -2,995
  -3,144
  -3,300
  -3,464
  -3,637
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  162
  250
  348
  455
  572
  698
  833
  976
  1,128
  1,232
  1,400
  1,575
  1,758
  1,948
  2,146
  2,352
  2,567
  2,789
  3,020
  3,260
  3,510
  3,769
  4,039
  4,319
  4,612
  4,916
  5,233
  5,564
  5,909
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  583
  633
  678
  723
  766
  808
  849
  890
  931
  972
  1,013
  1,054
  1,096
  1,140
  1,184
  1,231
  1,279
  1,329
  1,382
  1,438
  1,496
  1,557
  1,622
  1,690
  1,762
  1,838
  1,918
  2,003
  2,092
  2,186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  91
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  674
  649
  678
  723
  766
  808
  849
  890
  931
  972
  1,013
  1,054
  1,096
  1,140
  1,184
  1,231
  1,279
  1,329
  1,382
  1,438
  1,496
  1,557
  1,622
  1,690
  1,762
  1,838
  1,918
  2,003
  2,092
  2,186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  761
  811
  928
  1,070
  1,221
  1,380
  1,547
  1,723
  1,907
  2,099
  2,245
  2,454
  2,671
  2,897
  3,133
  3,377
  3,632
  3,896
  4,171
  4,458
  4,756
  5,067
  5,391
  5,729
  6,082
  6,450
  6,834
  7,235
  7,655
  8,094
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -575
  -626
  -670
  -714
  -757
  -798
  -839
  -880
  -920
  -960
  -1,000
  -1,041
  -1,083
  -1,126
  -1,170
  -1,216
  -1,264
  -1,314
  -1,366
  -1,421
  -1,478
  -1,539
  -1,603
  -1,670
  -1,741
  -1,816
  -1,895
  -1,979
  -2,067
  -2,160
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  185
  186
  258
  356
  464
  582
  708
  844
  987
  1,139
  1,245
  1,412
  1,588
  1,771
  1,962
  2,161
  2,368
  2,582
  2,806
  3,037
  3,278
  3,528
  3,788
  4,059
  4,340
  4,633
  4,939
  5,257
  5,589
  5,935
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  178
  170
  225
  293
  360
  422
  478
  527
  567
  597
  591
  603
  604
  595
  576
  549
  515
  476
  432
  386
  339
  293
  248
  207
  169
  135
  106
  81
  61
  45
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

Albemarle Corporation is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of highly-engineered specialty chemicals. The Company operates through three segments: Lithium and Advanced Materials, Bromine Specialties and Refining Solutions. Lithium and Advanced Materials segment consist of two product categories: Lithium and Performance Catalyst Solutions. The bromine and bromine-based business includes products used in fire safety solutions and other specialty chemicals applications. The Company serves various end markets, including petroleum refining, consumer electronics, energy storage, construction, automotive, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection, food safety and custom chemistry services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company and its joint ventures operated 31 production and research and development (R&D) facilities, as well as a number of administrative and sales offices, around the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Albemarle (ALB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 55.9%
Total Debt to Equity 62.4%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
EBITDA Margin 31.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
Operating Margin 21.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Net Profit Margin 24.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Effective Tax Rate 18.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

ALB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3071.976 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Albemarle. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Albemarle. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Albemarle, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Albemarle.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $477 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Albemarle.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Albemarle. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALB are equal to 110.9%.

Life of production assets of 22.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Albemarle operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALB is equal to 18.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3674.549 million for Albemarle - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 108.45 million for Albemarle is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Albemarle at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.2 billion.

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