Intrinsic value of Alamo Group - ALG

Previous Close

$118.43

  Intrinsic Value

$18.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$118.43

 
Intrinsic value

$18.21

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.98
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  845
  935
  1,028
  1,126
  1,229
  1,335
  1,446
  1,562
  1,682
  1,806
  1,936
  2,070
  2,210
  2,356
  2,507
  2,664
  2,828
  2,999
  3,177
  3,363
  3,556
  3,758
  3,969
  4,189
  4,420
  4,660
  4,912
  5,176
  5,451
  5,740
  6,042
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  863
  949
  1,038
  1,132
  1,230
  1,331
  1,437
  1,546
  1,660
  1,779
  1,895
  2,023
  2,156
  2,294
  2,438
  2,588
  2,745
  2,907
  3,077
  3,254
  3,439
  3,632
  3,834
  4,045
  4,265
  4,495
  4,736
  4,989
  5,253
  5,529
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  777
  863
  949
  1,038
  1,132
  1,230
  1,331
  1,437
  1,546
  1,660
  1,779
  1,895
  2,023
  2,156
  2,294
  2,438
  2,588
  2,745
  2,907
  3,077
  3,254
  3,439
  3,632
  3,834
  4,045
  4,265
  4,495
  4,736
  4,989
  5,253
  5,529
Operating income, $m
  68
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  285
  302
  319
  337
  356
  375
  396
  417
  439
  463
  487
  513
EBITDA, $m
  89
  95
  104
  114
  125
  136
  147
  159
  171
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  287
  304
  323
  341
  361
  382
  403
  425
  449
  473
  499
  525
  553
  583
  613
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  123
  133
  142
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  371
  391
  411
  433
  455
Tax expense, $m
  22
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
Net income, $m
  40
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  553
  593
  653
  715
  780
  847
  918
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,228
  1,314
  1,402
  1,495
  1,591
  1,691
  1,795
  1,903
  2,016
  2,134
  2,256
  2,385
  2,518
  2,658
  2,804
  2,957
  3,117
  3,284
  3,459
  3,642
  3,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  536
  593
  653
  715
  780
  847
  918
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,228
  1,314
  1,402
  1,495
  1,591
  1,691
  1,795
  1,903
  2,016
  2,134
  2,256
  2,385
  2,518
  2,658
  2,804
  2,957
  3,117
  3,284
  3,459
  3,642
  3,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.576
  1.577
  1.574
  1.575
  1.576
  1.576
  1.575
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.577
  1.575
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.575
  1.575
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
Average production assets, $m
  155
  171
  188
  206
  225
  244
  265
  286
  308
  331
  354
  379
  404
  431
  459
  488
  518
  549
  581
  615
  651
  688
  726
  767
  809
  853
  899
  947
  998
  1,050
  1,106
Working capital, $m
  249
  257
  283
  310
  338
  367
  398
  429
  462
  497
  532
  569
  608
  648
  689
  733
  778
  825
  874
  925
  978
  1,034
  1,092
  1,152
  1,215
  1,282
  1,351
  1,423
  1,499
  1,578
  1,662
Total debt, $m
  70
  88
  106
  125
  145
  166
  188
  210
  234
  258
  283
  310
  337
  365
  395
  426
  458
  491
  526
  562
  600
  639
  681
  724
  769
  816
  865
  916
  970
  1,027
  1,086
Total liabilities, $m
  165
  183
  201
  220
  240
  261
  283
  305
  329
  353
  378
  405
  432
  460
  490
  521
  553
  586
  621
  657
  695
  734
  776
  819
  864
  911
  960
  1,011
  1,065
  1,122
  1,181
Total equity, $m
  388
  410
  452
  495
  540
  586
  635
  686
  738
  793
  850
  909
  970
  1,034
  1,101
  1,170
  1,242
  1,317
  1,395
  1,476
  1,561
  1,650
  1,743
  1,840
  1,941
  2,046
  2,157
  2,273
  2,394
  2,520
  2,653
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  553
  593
  653
  715
  780
  847
  918
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,228
  1,314
  1,402
  1,494
  1,591
  1,691
  1,795
  1,903
  2,016
  2,133
  2,256
  2,384
  2,519
  2,659
  2,805
  2,957
  3,117
  3,284
  3,459
  3,642
  3,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.180
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  101
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  134
  144
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  301
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  411
  433
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Cash from operations, $m
  76
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  93
  100
  108
  114
  123
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  203
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -150
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  57
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  134
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -74
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -73
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  13
  -2
  0
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  25
  28
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  92
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  -2
  0
  2
  5
  6
  8
  10
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  1
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
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  100.0
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  100.0
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  100.0

Alamo Group Inc. is engaged in the design and manufacture of agricultural equipment and infrastructure maintenance equipment for governmental and industrial use. The Company operates in Industrial, Agricultural and European segments. The Company's products include tractor-mounted mowing and other vegetation maintenance equipment, street sweepers, excavators, vacuum trucks, snow removal equipment, pothole patchers, zero turn radius mowers, agricultural implements and related aftermarket. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 24 plants in North America, Europe, Australia and Brazil. The Company sells its products through a network of independent dealers and distributors to Governmental end users, related independent contractors, as well as to the agricultural and commercial turf markets. It also offers replacement parts for each of its wholegoods lines. The Company's products are sold through various marketing organizations, and dealer and distributor networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alamo Group (ALG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18%
Total Debt to Equity 18%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Operating Margin 8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 35.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio 10%

ALG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $845 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alamo Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alamo Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alamo Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alamo Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Alamo Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alamo Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALG are equal to 18.3%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alamo Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALG is equal to 27.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $388 million for Alamo Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.695 million for Alamo Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alamo Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for December 19th   [Dec-19-17 10:05AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for December 4th   [Dec-04-17 09:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Alamo Group reports record profit following three acquisitions (slideshow)   [Nov-07-17 11:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group stock soars to record highs   [11:38AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group posts 3Q profit   [Oct-31-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Alamo Group, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 10:50AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-02-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Acquires R.P.M. Tech Inc.   [Aug-08-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-03-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Alamo Group, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 03:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Alamo Group posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alamo Group Announces Record 2017 First Quarter Results   [May-03-17 06:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-03-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ San Antonio manufacturers learn about Trump administration regs   [Mar-23-17 01:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ San Antonio manufacturers learn about Trump administration regs   [01:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group posts 4Q profit   [Mar-07-17 06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Early movers: GM, VZ, DIS, INTC, XRX, ANF & more   [Jan-03-17 08:19AM  at CNBC]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Announces Departure Of Board Member   [Dec-16-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) A Good Stock To Buy?   [02:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of ALG
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