Intrinsic value of Alamo Group - ALG

Previous Close

$97.36

  Intrinsic Value

$140.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+44%

Previous close

$97.36

 
Intrinsic value

$140.11

 
Up/down potential

+44%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  985
  1,061
  1,140
  1,222
  1,307
  1,395
  1,487
  1,583
  1,682
  1,786
  1,894
  2,007
  2,124
  2,246
  2,374
  2,507
  2,647
  2,792
  2,944
  3,104
  3,270
  3,444
  3,627
  3,818
  4,018
  4,227
  4,447
  4,677
  4,918
  5,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
  676
  727
  779
  835
  892
  951
  1,013
  1,077
  1,144
  1,214
  1,273
  1,348
  1,427
  1,509
  1,595
  1,685
  1,778
  1,876
  1,978
  2,085
  2,197
  2,314
  2,437
  2,565
  2,699
  2,840
  2,988
  3,142
  3,304
  3,474
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  204
  209
  213
  218
  223
  228
  233
  238
  243
  249
  254
  260
  265
  271
  277
  283
  290
  296
  302
  309
  316
  323
  330
  337
  345
  352
  360
  368
  376
  384
Total operating expenses, $m
  880
  936
  992
  1,053
  1,115
  1,179
  1,246
  1,315
  1,387
  1,463
  1,527
  1,608
  1,692
  1,780
  1,872
  1,968
  2,068
  2,172
  2,280
  2,394
  2,513
  2,637
  2,767
  2,902
  3,044
  3,192
  3,348
  3,510
  3,680
  3,858
Operating income, $m
  105
  125
  147
  169
  192
  216
  241
  268
  295
  324
  367
  399
  432
  466
  502
  539
  579
  620
  664
  709
  757
  807
  860
  916
  974
  1,035
  1,099
  1,167
  1,238
  1,313
EBITDA, $m
  144
  166
  190
  214
  239
  265
  293
  322
  352
  383
  416
  450
  486
  523
  562
  603
  646
  692
  739
  788
  841
  895
  953
  1,013
  1,076
  1,143
  1,213
  1,286
  1,363
  1,444
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
Earnings before tax, $m
  101
  120
  140
  161
  183
  206
  229
  254
  280
  307
  349
  379
  410
  443
  477
  512
  550
  589
  630
  673
  719
  766
  817
  869
  924
  982
  1,044
  1,108
  1,175
  1,246
Tax expense, $m
  27
  32
  38
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  235
  250
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
Net income, $m
  73
  87
  102
  117
  133
  150
  167
  186
  205
  224
  255
  277
  299
  323
  348
  374
  401
  430
  460
  492
  525
  560
  596
  634
  675
  717
  762
  809
  858
  910

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  691
  744
  799
  857
  916
  978
  1,043
  1,110
  1,180
  1,253
  1,328
  1,407
  1,489
  1,575
  1,665
  1,758
  1,856
  1,958
  2,065
  2,176
  2,293
  2,415
  2,543
  2,677
  2,818
  2,964
  3,118
  3,280
  3,449
  3,626
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  691
  744
  799
  857
  916
  978
  1,043
  1,110
  1,180
  1,253
  1,328
  1,407
  1,489
  1,575
  1,665
  1,758
  1,856
  1,958
  2,065
  2,176
  2,293
  2,415
  2,543
  2,677
  2,818
  2,964
  3,118
  3,280
  3,449
  3,626
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.425
  1.426
  1.427
  1.426
  1.427
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.425
  1.425
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
Average production assets, $m
  251
  271
  291
  311
  333
  356
  379
  404
  429
  455
  483
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  675
  712
  751
  791
  834
  878
  925
  974
  1,025
  1,078
  1,134
  1,193
  1,254
  1,319
Working capital, $m
  107
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  183
  195
  206
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
Total debt, $m
  75
  91
  108
  125
  142
  161
  180
  200
  221
  243
  265
  289
  313
  339
  366
  393
  423
  453
  485
  518
  553
  589
  627
  667
  709
  753
  799
  847
  897
  950
Total liabilities, $m
  206
  222
  238
  255
  273
  292
  311
  331
  352
  373
  396
  419
  444
  469
  496
  524
  553
  584
  615
  649
  683
  720
  758
  798
  840
  883
  929
  977
  1,028
  1,081
Total equity, $m
  485
  522
  561
  601
  643
  687
  732
  779
  828
  879
  932
  988
  1,046
  1,106
  1,169
  1,234
  1,303
  1,375
  1,450
  1,528
  1,610
  1,696
  1,785
  1,879
  1,978
  2,081
  2,189
  2,302
  2,421
  2,546
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  691
  744
  799
  856
  916
  979
  1,043
  1,110
  1,180
  1,252
  1,328
  1,407
  1,490
  1,575
  1,665
  1,758
  1,856
  1,959
  2,065
  2,177
  2,293
  2,416
  2,543
  2,677
  2,818
  2,964
  3,118
  3,279
  3,449
  3,627
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  87
  102
  117
  133
  150
  167
  186
  205
  224
  255
  277
  299
  323
  348
  374
  401
  430
  460
  492
  525
  560
  596
  634
  675
  717
  762
  809
  858
  910
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
Funds from operations, $m
  112
  128
  145
  162
  181
  199
  219
  240
  261
  284
  303
  328
  354
  380
  409
  438
  469
  501
  535
  571
  608
  647
  689
  732
  777
  825
  875
  928
  983
  1,042
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  104
  120
  136
  153
  171
  190
  209
  229
  250
  272
  292
  316
  341
  367
  395
  423
  454
  485
  519
  553
  590
  628
  669
  711
  755
  802
  851
  903
  957
  1,014
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  76
  89
  104
  118
  134
  150
  167
  185
  203
  219
  239
  260
  282
  305
  329
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  501
  534
  570
  607
  646
  687
  731
  776
  824
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  78
  91
  106
  121
  136
  152
  169
  187
  205
  225
  241
  262
  284
  307
  331
  357
  383
  411
  440
  471
  503
  537
  572
  610
  649
  690
  733
  779
  827
  877
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash available for distribution, $m
  42
  54
  67
  80
  94
  109
  124
  140
  156
  174
  188
  207
  226
  247
  269
  291
  315
  340
  365
  393
  421
  451
  483
  516
  550
  587
  625
  666
  708
  752
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  40
  50
  58
  66
  73
  79
  84
  87
  90
  91
  89
  88
  86
  83
  79
  74
  68
  63
  56
  50
  44
  37
  32
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alamo Group Inc. is engaged in the design and manufacture of agricultural equipment and infrastructure maintenance equipment for governmental and industrial use. The Company operates in Industrial, Agricultural and European segments. The Company's products include tractor-mounted mowing and other vegetation maintenance equipment, street sweepers, excavators, vacuum trucks, snow removal equipment, pothole patchers, zero turn radius mowers, agricultural implements and related aftermarket. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 24 plants in North America, Europe, Australia and Brazil. The Company sells its products through a network of independent dealers and distributors to Governmental end users, related independent contractors, as well as to the agricultural and commercial turf markets. It also offers replacement parts for each of its wholegoods lines. The Company's products are sold through various marketing organizations, and dealer and distributor networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alamo Group (ALG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.8
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18%
Total Debt to Equity 18%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Operating Margin 8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 35.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio 10%

ALG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $912 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alamo Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Alamo Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alamo Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alamo Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $200 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for Alamo Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alamo Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALG stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALG are equal to 25.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alamo Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALG is equal to 10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $449 million for Alamo Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12 million for Alamo Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alamo Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alamo Group breaks company earnings records despite Trump tariffs   [Aug-02-18 07:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-01-18 07:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-02-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ From tax reform to trade wars, San Antonio public companies show resilience   [Jun-21-18 03:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group Announces New Chairman Of The Board   [May-03-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Settlement Of Strike At Gradall Industries, Inc.   [Apr-06-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-02-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Alamo Group posts 4Q profit   [Mar-01-18 06:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for December 19th   [Dec-19-17 10:05AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for December 4th   [Dec-04-17 09:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Alamo Group reports record profit following three acquisitions (slideshow)   [Nov-07-17 11:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group stock soars to record highs   [11:38AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alamo Group posts 3Q profit   [Oct-31-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Alamo Group, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 10:50AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-02-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Acquires R.P.M. Tech Inc.   [Aug-08-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alamo Group posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alamo Group Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-03-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Alamo Group, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 03:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Alamo Group posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alamo Group Announces Record 2017 First Quarter Results   [May-03-17 06:05PM  PR Newswire]
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