Intrinsic value of Align Technology, Inc. - ALGN

Previous Close

$305.70

  Intrinsic Value

$202.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$305.70

 
Intrinsic value

$202.92

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 24.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  2,491
  3,102
  3,802
  4,594
  5,478
  6,453
  7,520
  8,677
  9,921
  11,251
  12,665
  14,161
  15,737
  17,392
  19,125
  20,935
  22,824
  24,791
  26,838
  28,967
  31,179
  33,479
  35,868
  38,351
  40,933
  43,617
  46,409
  49,315
  52,341
  55,493
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,879
  2,327
  2,841
  3,422
  4,070
  4,786
  5,568
  6,417
  7,329
  8,305
  9,290
  10,387
  11,543
  12,757
  14,028
  15,356
  16,741
  18,184
  19,686
  21,247
  22,870
  24,557
  26,309
  28,131
  30,024
  31,993
  34,041
  36,173
  38,392
  40,704
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,879
  2,327
  2,841
  3,422
  4,070
  4,786
  5,568
  6,417
  7,329
  8,305
  9,290
  10,387
  11,543
  12,757
  14,028
  15,356
  16,741
  18,184
  19,686
  21,247
  22,870
  24,557
  26,309
  28,131
  30,024
  31,993
  34,041
  36,173
  38,392
  40,704
Operating income, $m
  612
  775
  961
  1,172
  1,408
  1,668
  1,952
  2,260
  2,592
  2,946
  3,375
  3,774
  4,194
  4,635
  5,097
  5,579
  6,083
  6,607
  7,152
  7,720
  8,309
  8,922
  9,559
  10,221
  10,909
  11,624
  12,368
  13,143
  13,949
  14,789
EBITDA, $m
  728
  906
  1,111
  1,342
  1,600
  1,885
  2,197
  2,534
  2,898
  3,286
  3,699
  4,136
  4,596
  5,080
  5,586
  6,115
  6,666
  7,241
  7,839
  8,461
  9,107
  9,778
  10,476
  11,202
  11,956
  12,740
  13,555
  14,404
  15,288
  16,208
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  12
  25
  40
  58
  77
  98
  122
  147
  175
  204
  235
  268
  302
  339
  377
  416
  458
  501
  546
  593
  641
  692
  744
  799
  855
  914
  976
  1,039
  1,106
Earnings before tax, $m
  612
  763
  936
  1,132
  1,350
  1,591
  1,854
  2,138
  2,445
  2,772
  3,171
  3,539
  3,926
  4,333
  4,758
  5,203
  5,666
  6,149
  6,651
  7,174
  7,717
  8,281
  8,867
  9,476
  10,110
  10,768
  11,454
  12,167
  12,909
  13,683
Tax expense, $m
  165
  206
  253
  306
  365
  429
  500
  577
  660
  748
  856
  956
  1,060
  1,170
  1,285
  1,405
  1,530
  1,660
  1,796
  1,937
  2,083
  2,236
  2,394
  2,559
  2,730
  2,907
  3,093
  3,285
  3,486
  3,694
Net income, $m
  447
  557
  683
  826
  986
  1,161
  1,353
  1,561
  1,785
  2,023
  2,315
  2,583
  2,866
  3,163
  3,473
  3,798
  4,136
  4,489
  4,855
  5,237
  5,633
  6,045
  6,473
  6,918
  7,380
  7,861
  8,361
  8,882
  9,424
  9,989

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,544
  3,168
  3,884
  4,692
  5,595
  6,592
  7,682
  8,863
  10,134
  11,493
  12,937
  14,465
  16,074
  17,765
  19,535
  21,384
  23,314
  25,323
  27,414
  29,588
  31,848
  34,197
  36,637
  39,174
  41,811
  44,552
  47,405
  50,373
  53,464
  56,683
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,544
  3,168
  3,884
  4,692
  5,595
  6,592
  7,682
  8,863
  10,134
  11,493
  12,937
  14,465
  16,074
  17,765
  19,535
  21,384
  23,314
  25,323
  27,414
  29,588
  31,848
  34,197
  36,637
  39,174
  41,811
  44,552
  47,405
  50,373
  53,464
  56,683
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
  0.979
Average production assets, $m
  605
  754
  924
  1,116
  1,331
  1,568
  1,827
  2,108
  2,411
  2,734
  3,078
  3,441
  3,824
  4,226
  4,647
  5,087
  5,546
  6,024
  6,522
  7,039
  7,577
  8,135
  8,716
  9,319
  9,947
  10,599
  11,277
  11,984
  12,719
  13,485
Working capital, $m
  -159
  -199
  -243
  -294
  -351
  -413
  -481
  -555
  -635
  -720
  -811
  -906
  -1,007
  -1,113
  -1,224
  -1,340
  -1,461
  -1,587
  -1,718
  -1,854
  -1,995
  -2,143
  -2,296
  -2,454
  -2,620
  -2,791
  -2,970
  -3,156
  -3,350
  -3,552
Total debt, $m
  213
  461
  746
  1,068
  1,427
  1,824
  2,258
  2,728
  3,234
  3,775
  4,349
  4,957
  5,598
  6,271
  6,975
  7,711
  8,479
  9,279
  10,111
  10,976
  11,876
  12,811
  13,782
  14,792
  15,841
  16,932
  18,068
  19,249
  20,479
  21,760
Total liabilities, $m
  1,013
  1,261
  1,546
  1,868
  2,227
  2,624
  3,057
  3,527
  4,033
  4,574
  5,149
  5,757
  6,398
  7,070
  7,775
  8,511
  9,279
  10,079
  10,911
  11,776
  12,676
  13,610
  14,582
  15,591
  16,641
  17,732
  18,867
  20,048
  21,279
  22,560
Total equity, $m
  1,532
  1,907
  2,338
  2,825
  3,368
  3,968
  4,624
  5,335
  6,101
  6,919
  7,788
  8,708
  9,677
  10,694
  11,760
  12,873
  14,035
  15,244
  16,503
  17,812
  19,173
  20,586
  22,056
  23,583
  25,170
  26,821
  28,538
  30,325
  32,185
  34,123
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,545
  3,168
  3,884
  4,693
  5,595
  6,592
  7,681
  8,862
  10,134
  11,493
  12,937
  14,465
  16,075
  17,764
  19,535
  21,384
  23,314
  25,323
  27,414
  29,588
  31,849
  34,196
  36,638
  39,174
  41,811
  44,553
  47,405
  50,373
  53,464
  56,683
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.240
  0.320
  0.380
  0.420
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  447
  557
  683
  826
  986
  1,161
  1,353
  1,561
  1,785
  2,023
  2,315
  2,583
  2,866
  3,163
  3,473
  3,798
  4,136
  4,489
  4,855
  5,237
  5,633
  6,045
  6,473
  6,918
  7,380
  7,861
  8,361
  8,882
  9,424
  9,989
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  116
  131
  149
  170
  192
  217
  244
  274
  306
  340
  324
  362
  403
  445
  489
  536
  584
  634
  686
  741
  798
  856
  917
  981
  1,047
  1,116
  1,187
  1,261
  1,339
  1,419
Funds from operations, $m
  562
  688
  833
  996
  1,178
  1,378
  1,598
  1,835
  2,090
  2,363
  2,639
  2,946
  3,269
  3,608
  3,963
  4,333
  4,720
  5,123
  5,542
  5,978
  6,431
  6,901
  7,390
  7,899
  8,427
  8,977
  9,548
  10,143
  10,763
  11,408
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
Cash from operations, $m
  596
  728
  878
  1,047
  1,234
  1,441
  1,666
  1,909
  2,170
  2,448
  2,730
  3,041
  3,369
  3,714
  4,074
  4,449
  4,841
  5,249
  5,673
  6,114
  6,572
  7,048
  7,543
  8,058
  8,592
  9,148
  9,727
  10,329
  10,956
  11,610
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -64
  -79
  -97
  -118
  -140
  -165
  -192
  -222
  -254
  -288
  -324
  -362
  -403
  -445
  -489
  -536
  -584
  -634
  -686
  -741
  -798
  -856
  -917
  -981
  -1,047
  -1,116
  -1,187
  -1,261
  -1,339
New CAPEX, $m
  -127
  -148
  -170
  -192
  -215
  -237
  -259
  -281
  -302
  -323
  -344
  -363
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -440
  -459
  -478
  -497
  -517
  -538
  -559
  -581
  -603
  -627
  -652
  -679
  -706
  -735
  -766
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -177
  -212
  -249
  -289
  -333
  -377
  -424
  -473
  -524
  -577
  -632
  -687
  -745
  -805
  -866
  -929
  -995
  -1,062
  -1,131
  -1,203
  -1,279
  -1,357
  -1,437
  -1,520
  -1,608
  -1,699
  -1,795
  -1,893
  -1,996
  -2,105
Free cash flow, $m
  418
  515
  628
  757
  902
  1,064
  1,242
  1,436
  1,646
  1,871
  2,098
  2,354
  2,624
  2,909
  3,208
  3,520
  3,847
  4,187
  4,541
  4,910
  5,294
  5,692
  6,106
  6,537
  6,984
  7,449
  7,933
  8,436
  8,960
  9,505
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  213
  248
  285
  322
  359
  397
  434
  470
  506
  541
  575
  608
  641
  673
  705
  736
  768
  800
  832
  865
  899
  935
  971
  1,010
  1,049
  1,091
  1,135
  1,181
  1,230
  1,281
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  213
  248
  285
  322
  359
  397
  434
  470
  506
  541
  575
  608
  641
  673
  705
  736
  768
  800
  832
  865
  899
  935
  971
  1,010
  1,049
  1,091
  1,135
  1,181
  1,230
  1,281
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  632
  764
  913
  1,079
  1,261
  1,460
  1,675
  1,906
  2,152
  2,412
  2,673
  2,962
  3,265
  3,582
  3,912
  4,256
  4,614
  4,987
  5,374
  5,776
  6,193
  6,627
  7,078
  7,546
  8,034
  8,540
  9,068
  9,617
  10,190
  10,786
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -322
  -376
  -431
  -487
  -543
  -600
  -656
  -711
  -765
  -818
  -869
  -920
  -969
  -1,018
  -1,066
  -1,113
  -1,161
  -1,210
  -1,259
  -1,309
  -1,361
  -1,414
  -1,469
  -1,527
  -1,587
  -1,651
  -1,717
  -1,787
  -1,861
  -1,938
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  352
  388
  482
  592
  718
  860
  1,019
  1,195
  1,386
  1,594
  1,804
  2,042
  2,296
  2,564
  2,846
  3,143
  3,453
  3,777
  4,115
  4,467
  4,833
  5,213
  5,608
  6,019
  6,446
  6,890
  7,351
  7,830
  8,329
  8,848
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  338
  355
  420
  487
  556
  624
  689
  747
  796
  836
  857
  872
  873
  861
  836
  799
  751
  696
  634
  568
  500
  433
  368
  307
  251
  201
  158
  121
  91
  67
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Align Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets a system of clear aligner therapy, intra-oral scanners and computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) digital services used in dentistry, orthodontics and dental records storage. The Company operates through two segments: Clear Aligner segment and Scanner and Services (Scanner) segment. The Clear Aligner segment consists of its Invisalign System, which includes Invisalign Full, Teen and Assist (Comprehensive Products), Express/Lite (Non-Comprehensive Products) and Vivera Retainers, along with its training and ancillary products for treating malocclusion (Non-Case). The Scanner segment consists of intra-oral scanning systems and other services available with the intra-oral scanners that provide digital alternatives to the traditional cast models. The Scanner segment includes its iTero scanner and OrthoCAD services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 128
Price to Sales 22.5
Price to Book 24.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 98.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 137.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Total Capital 20.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Return On Equity 20.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Operating Margin 23.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Net Profit Margin 17.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1966 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Align Technology, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Align Technology, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Align Technology, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Align Technology, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Align Technology, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Align Technology, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALGN are equal to 24.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Align Technology, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALGN is equal to -6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1252.891 million for Align Technology, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.975 million for Align Technology, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Align Technology, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $24.4 billion.

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