Intrinsic value of Allegiant Travel - ALGT

Previous Close

$119.96

  Intrinsic Value

$275.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+129%

Previous close

$119.96

 
Intrinsic value

$275.29

 
Up/down potential

+129%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALGT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  1,635
  1,771
  1,912
  2,060
  2,213
  2,372
  2,537
  2,708
  2,887
  3,073
  3,266
  3,467
  3,677
  3,895
  4,123
  4,361
  4,609
  4,867
  5,138
  5,420
  5,716
  6,025
  6,348
  6,686
  7,040
  7,411
  7,799
  8,206
  8,632
  9,079
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,190
  1,289
  1,392
  1,499
  1,611
  1,726
  1,847
  1,972
  2,102
  2,237
  2,378
  2,524
  2,677
  2,836
  3,002
  3,174
  3,355
  3,543
  3,740
  3,946
  4,161
  4,386
  4,621
  4,867
  5,125
  5,395
  5,678
  5,974
  6,284
  6,609
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,190
  1,289
  1,392
  1,499
  1,611
  1,726
  1,847
  1,972
  2,102
  2,237
  2,378
  2,524
  2,677
  2,836
  3,002
  3,174
  3,355
  3,543
  3,740
  3,946
  4,161
  4,386
  4,621
  4,867
  5,125
  5,395
  5,678
  5,974
  6,284
  6,609
Operating income, $m
  445
  482
  520
  560
  602
  645
  690
  737
  785
  836
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,121
  1,186
  1,254
  1,324
  1,397
  1,474
  1,555
  1,639
  1,727
  1,819
  1,915
  2,016
  2,121
  2,232
  2,348
  2,469
EBITDA, $m
  577
  625
  675
  727
  781
  837
  896
  956
  1,019
  1,085
  1,153
  1,224
  1,298
  1,375
  1,456
  1,539
  1,627
  1,718
  1,814
  1,914
  2,018
  2,127
  2,241
  2,360
  2,485
  2,616
  2,753
  2,897
  3,047
  3,205
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  63
  70
  78
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  279
  295
  312
  330
  348
  368
  388
  409
  432
  455
Earnings before tax, $m
  382
  412
  443
  475
  508
  543
  579
  617
  656
  697
  739
  783
  829
  877
  927
  979
  1,033
  1,090
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
  1,489
  1,567
  1,648
  1,733
  1,823
  1,916
  2,014
Tax expense, $m
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  156
  167
  177
  188
  200
  211
  224
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
Net income, $m
  279
  300
  323
  347
  371
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  605
  640
  677
  715
  754
  796
  839
  884
  932
  981
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,203
  1,265
  1,330
  1,399
  1,470

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,267
  2,456
  2,652
  2,857
  3,069
  3,289
  3,518
  3,757
  4,004
  4,262
  4,530
  4,809
  5,100
  5,403
  5,718
  6,048
  6,392
  6,751
  7,126
  7,518
  7,928
  8,356
  8,804
  9,273
  9,764
  10,278
  10,817
  11,381
  11,972
  12,592
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,267
  2,456
  2,652
  2,857
  3,069
  3,289
  3,518
  3,757
  4,004
  4,262
  4,530
  4,809
  5,100
  5,403
  5,718
  6,048
  6,392
  6,751
  7,126
  7,518
  7,928
  8,356
  8,804
  9,273
  9,764
  10,278
  10,817
  11,381
  11,972
  12,592
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
Average production assets, $m
  1,417
  1,535
  1,658
  1,786
  1,918
  2,056
  2,199
  2,348
  2,503
  2,664
  2,832
  3,006
  3,188
  3,377
  3,575
  3,781
  3,996
  4,220
  4,454
  4,699
  4,956
  5,223
  5,504
  5,797
  6,104
  6,425
  6,762
  7,114
  7,484
  7,871
Working capital, $m
  -230
  -250
  -270
  -290
  -312
  -334
  -358
  -382
  -407
  -433
  -461
  -489
  -518
  -549
  -581
  -615
  -650
  -686
  -724
  -764
  -806
  -849
  -895
  -943
  -993
  -1,045
  -1,100
  -1,157
  -1,217
  -1,280
Total debt, $m
  1,298
  1,437
  1,581
  1,731
  1,887
  2,049
  2,218
  2,393
  2,575
  2,764
  2,961
  3,166
  3,380
  3,603
  3,835
  4,077
  4,330
  4,594
  4,869
  5,157
  5,459
  5,773
  6,103
  6,448
  6,809
  7,187
  7,582
  7,997
  8,431
  8,887
Total liabilities, $m
  1,666
  1,805
  1,950
  2,100
  2,256
  2,418
  2,586
  2,761
  2,943
  3,132
  3,329
  3,535
  3,748
  3,971
  4,203
  4,445
  4,698
  4,962
  5,238
  5,526
  5,827
  6,142
  6,471
  6,816
  7,177
  7,555
  7,950
  8,365
  8,800
  9,255
Total equity, $m
  601
  651
  703
  757
  813
  872
  932
  995
  1,061
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,351
  1,432
  1,515
  1,603
  1,694
  1,789
  1,888
  1,992
  2,101
  2,214
  2,333
  2,457
  2,588
  2,724
  2,867
  3,016
  3,173
  3,337
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,267
  2,456
  2,653
  2,857
  3,069
  3,290
  3,518
  3,756
  4,004
  4,261
  4,529
  4,809
  5,099
  5,403
  5,718
  6,048
  6,392
  6,751
  7,126
  7,518
  7,928
  8,356
  8,804
  9,273
  9,765
  10,279
  10,817
  11,381
  11,973
  12,592
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.160
  2.210
  2.250
  2.290
  2.320
  2.350
  2.380
  2.400
  2.430
  2.450
  2.470
  2.480
  2.500
  2.520
  2.530
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.590
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.650
  2.650
  2.660
  2.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  279
  300
  323
  347
  371
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  605
  640
  677
  715
  754
  796
  839
  884
  932
  981
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,203
  1,265
  1,330
  1,399
  1,470
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  206
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  542
  570
  600
  632
  665
  699
  736
Funds from operations, $m
  411
  444
  478
  513
  550
  589
  628
  670
  713
  758
  804
  853
  903
  956
  1,011
  1,068
  1,128
  1,190
  1,255
  1,324
  1,395
  1,469
  1,547
  1,629
  1,714
  1,804
  1,897
  1,995
  2,098
  2,206
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
Cash from operations, $m
  430
  463
  498
  534
  572
  611
  652
  694
  738
  784
  831
  881
  933
  987
  1,043
  1,101
  1,163
  1,227
  1,293
  1,363
  1,436
  1,513
  1,593
  1,676
  1,764
  1,856
  1,952
  2,053
  2,158
  2,269
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -155
  -167
  -179
  -192
  -206
  -219
  -234
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -334
  -353
  -373
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -514
  -542
  -570
  -600
  -632
  -665
  -699
New CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -369
  -387
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -235
  -250
  -266
  -283
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -355
  -374
  -395
  -417
  -439
  -463
  -487
  -513
  -540
  -568
  -597
  -628
  -661
  -695
  -731
  -768
  -807
  -849
  -891
  -937
  -985
  -1,034
  -1,086
Free cash flow, $m
  194
  213
  232
  252
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  499
  530
  561
  594
  629
  665
  702
  741
  782
  824
  869
  915
  964
  1,015
  1,068
  1,124
  1,182
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  328
  351
  376
  402
  428
  456
  485
  515
  546
  578
  612
  647
  684
  722
  762
  804
  847
  893
  940
  990
  1,042
  1,097
  1,154
  1,214
  1,276
  1,342
  1,411
  1,483
  1,558
  1,638
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  280
  301
  324
  348
  372
  398
  424
  452
  480
  510
  541
  573
  607
  642
  678
  716
  756
  798
  841
  886
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,089
  1,146
  1,206
  1,268
  1,333
  1,402
  1,473
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  267
  272
  275
  276
  275
  272
  267
  259
  250
  238
  225
  210
  194
  177
  160
  143
  126
  109
  93
  78
  65
  53
  42
  33
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Allegiant Travel Company is a leisure travel company. The Company is focused on providing travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. It also provides air transportation under fixed fee flying arrangements. The Company's products and services include scheduled service air transportation, air-related ancillary products and services, third-party ancillary products and services and fixed fee contract air transportation. Its scheduled service air transportation includes scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency non-stop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 1, 2017, its operating fleet consisted of 47 MD-80 aircraft, 34 Airbus A320 series aircraft, and four Boeing 757-200 aircraft, and it was selling travel on 377 routes to 119 cities. The Company's air-related ancillary products and services include providing unbundled air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allegiant Travel (ALGT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 152.3%
Total Debt to Equity 170.5%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Return On Total Capital 19.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Return On Equity 53.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
EBITDA Margin 34.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Operating Margin 27.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Net Profit Margin 16.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 30.9%

ALGT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALGT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1503.778 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allegiant Travel. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Allegiant Travel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALGT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for ALGT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allegiant Travel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allegiant Travel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALGT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALGT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Allegiant Travel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allegiant Travel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALGT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALGT are equal to 86.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allegiant Travel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALGT is equal to -14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $553.311 million for Allegiant Travel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.164 million for Allegiant Travel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allegiant Travel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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