Intrinsic value of Allstate - ALL

Previous Close

$103.70

  Intrinsic Value

$185.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+79%

Previous close

$103.70

 
Intrinsic value

$185.36

 
Up/down potential

+79%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ALL.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.06
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  0
  38,395
  40,038
  41,780
  43,626
  45,578
  47,642
  49,821
  52,122
  54,548
  57,106
  59,802
  62,642
  65,633
  68,781
  72,094
  75,580
  79,247
  83,104
  87,159
  91,423
  95,905
  100,617
  105,568
  110,772
  116,240
  121,985
  128,021
  134,363
  141,025
  148,023
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  34,896
  36,384
  37,962
  39,633
  41,401
  43,270
  45,244
  47,328
  49,526
  51,843
  54,163
  56,735
  59,443
  62,295
  65,295
  68,453
  71,774
  75,267
  78,940
  82,801
  86,861
  91,128
  95,612
  100,325
  105,277
  110,481
  115,948
  121,691
  127,725
  134,063
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  34,093
  34,896
  36,384
  37,962
  39,633
  41,401
  43,270
  45,244
  47,328
  49,526
  51,843
  54,163
  56,735
  59,443
  62,295
  65,295
  68,453
  71,774
  75,267
  78,940
  82,801
  86,861
  91,128
  95,612
  100,325
  105,277
  110,481
  115,948
  121,691
  127,725
  134,063
Operating income, $m
  2,754
  3,499
  3,654
  3,818
  3,992
  4,176
  4,371
  4,577
  4,794
  5,022
  5,264
  5,640
  5,908
  6,190
  6,487
  6,799
  7,128
  7,474
  7,837
  8,220
  8,622
  9,045
  9,489
  9,956
  10,447
  10,962
  11,504
  12,073
  12,672
  13,300
  13,960
EBITDA, $m
  3,136
  3,621
  3,776
  3,940
  4,114
  4,298
  4,493
  4,699
  4,915
  5,144
  5,386
  5,640
  5,908
  6,190
  6,487
  6,799
  7,128
  7,474
  7,837
  8,220
  8,622
  9,045
  9,489
  9,956
  10,447
  10,962
  11,504
  12,073
  12,672
  13,300
  13,960
Interest expense (income), $m
  287
  317
  508
  705
  913
  1,134
  1,367
  1,614
  1,875
  2,150
  2,440
  2,746
  3,069
  3,409
  3,766
  4,143
  4,539
  4,956
  5,395
  5,856
  6,341
  6,851
  7,387
  7,951
  8,543
  9,166
  9,820
  10,507
  11,229
  11,987
  12,784
Earnings before tax, $m
  2,754
  3,182
  3,146
  3,114
  3,079
  3,043
  3,004
  2,962
  2,919
  2,872
  2,823
  2,893
  2,839
  2,781
  2,720
  2,656
  2,589
  2,518
  2,443
  2,364
  2,281
  2,193
  2,102
  2,005
  1,903
  1,797
  1,684
  1,567
  1,443
  1,312
  1,175
Tax expense, $m
  877
  859
  849
  841
  831
  822
  811
  800
  788
  776
  762
  781
  766
  751
  734
  717
  699
  680
  660
  638
  616
  592
  567
  541
  514
  485
  455
  423
  389
  354
  317
Net income, $m
  1,877
  2,323
  2,296
  2,273
  2,248
  2,221
  2,193
  2,163
  2,131
  2,097
  2,061
  2,112
  2,072
  2,030
  1,986
  1,939
  1,890
  1,838
  1,783
  1,726
  1,665
  1,601
  1,534
  1,464
  1,390
  1,312
  1,230
  1,144
  1,053
  958
  858

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  108,610
  113,258
  118,106
  123,246
  128,689
  134,448
  140,536
  146,965
  153,751
  160,909
  168,456
  176,408
  184,786
  193,608
  202,894
  212,668
  222,951
  233,768
  245,144
  257,107
  269,685
  282,907
  296,805
  311,411
  326,761
  342,890
  359,838
  377,644
  396,350
  416,002
  436,645
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108,610
  113,258
  118,106
  123,246
  128,689
  134,448
  140,536
  146,965
  153,751
  160,909
  168,456
  176,408
  184,786
  193,608
  202,894
  212,668
  222,951
  233,768
  245,144
  257,107
  269,685
  282,907
  296,805
  311,411
  326,761
  342,890
  359,838
  377,644
  396,350
  416,002
  436,645
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  6,347
  10,163
  14,094
  18,262
  22,677
  27,348
  32,284
  37,498
  43,002
  48,807
  54,927
  61,377
  68,171
  75,326
  82,857
  90,784
  99,123
  107,896
  117,122
  126,824
  137,024
  147,747
  159,018
  170,864
  183,313
  196,394
  210,138
  224,579
  239,750
  255,687
  272,429
Total liabilities, $m
  88,037
  91,853
  95,784
  99,952
  104,367
  109,038
  113,974
  119,188
  124,692
  130,497
  136,617
  143,067
  149,861
  157,016
  164,547
  172,474
  180,813
  189,586
  198,812
  208,514
  218,714
  229,437
  240,708
  252,554
  265,003
  278,084
  291,828
  306,269
  321,440
  337,377
  354,119
Total equity, $m
  20,573
  21,406
  22,322
  23,293
  24,322
  25,411
  26,561
  27,776
  29,059
  30,412
  31,838
  33,341
  34,925
  36,592
  38,347
  40,194
  42,138
  44,182
  46,332
  48,593
  50,970
  53,469
  56,096
  58,857
  61,758
  64,806
  68,009
  71,375
  74,910
  78,624
  82,526
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  108,610
  113,259
  118,106
  123,245
  128,689
  134,449
  140,535
  146,964
  153,751
  160,909
  168,455
  176,408
  184,786
  193,608
  202,894
  212,668
  222,951
  233,768
  245,144
  257,107
  269,684
  282,906
  296,804
  311,411
  326,761
  342,890
  359,837
  377,644
  396,350
  416,001
  436,645
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.309
  0.470
  0.630
  0.780
  0.930
  1.080
  1.220
  1.350
  1.480
  1.600
  1.730
  1.840
  1.950
  2.060
  2.160
  2.260
  2.350
  2.440
  2.530
  2.610
  2.690
  2.760
  2.830
  2.900
  2.970
  3.030
  3.090
  3.150
  3.200
  3.250
  3.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,877
  2,323
  2,296
  2,273
  2,248
  2,221
  2,193
  2,163
  2,131
  2,097
  2,061
  2,112
  2,072
  2,030
  1,986
  1,939
  1,890
  1,838
  1,783
  1,726
  1,665
  1,601
  1,534
  1,464
  1,390
  1,312
  1,230
  1,144
  1,053
  958
  858
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  382
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  122
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  5,006
  2,445
  2,418
  2,395
  2,370
  2,343
  2,315
  2,284
  2,253
  2,219
  2,183
  2,112
  2,072
  2,030
  1,986
  1,939
  1,890
  1,838
  1,783
  1,726
  1,665
  1,601
  1,534
  1,464
  1,390
  1,312
  1,230
  1,144
  1,053
  958
  858
Change in working capital, $m
  1,013
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  3,993
  2,445
  2,418
  2,395
  2,370
  2,343
  2,315
  2,284
  2,253
  2,219
  2,183
  2,112
  2,072
  2,030
  1,986
  1,939
  1,890
  1,838
  1,783
  1,726
  1,665
  1,601
  1,534
  1,464
  1,390
  1,312
  1,230
  1,144
  1,053
  958
  858
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -313
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,526
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,467
  2,445
  2,418
  2,395
  2,370
  2,343
  2,315
  2,284
  2,253
  2,219
  2,183
  2,112
  2,072
  2,030
  1,986
  1,939
  1,890
  1,838
  1,783
  1,726
  1,665
  1,601
  1,534
  1,464
  1,390
  1,312
  1,230
  1,144
  1,053
  958
  858
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,219
  3,816
  3,931
  4,169
  4,415
  4,671
  4,937
  5,214
  5,503
  5,805
  6,120
  6,450
  6,794
  7,154
  7,532
  7,926
  8,340
  8,773
  9,226
  9,702
  10,200
  10,723
  11,271
  11,846
  12,449
  13,081
  13,744
  14,441
  15,171
  15,937
  16,742
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1,173
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  54
  207
  367
  535
  712
  898
  1,092
  1,297
  1,512
  1,737
  1,973
  2,222
  2,482
  2,756
  3,044
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -924
  3,816
  3,931
  4,169
  4,415
  4,671
  4,937
  5,214
  5,503
  5,805
  6,120
  6,450
  6,794
  7,154
  7,532
  7,926
  8,394
  8,980
  9,593
  10,237
  10,912
  11,621
  12,363
  13,143
  13,961
  14,818
  15,717
  16,663
  17,653
  18,693
  19,786
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  543
  6,260
  6,350
  6,563
  6,784
  7,014
  7,251
  7,499
  7,756
  8,024
  8,303
  8,562
  8,867
  9,185
  9,517
  9,865
  10,283
  10,817
  11,377
  11,963
  12,578
  13,222
  13,898
  14,606
  15,350
  16,130
  16,948
  17,806
  18,707
  19,652
  20,643
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -548
  -833
  -916
  -971
  -1,029
  -1,088
  -1,150
  -1,215
  -1,283
  -1,353
  -1,426
  -1,503
  -1,583
  -1,667
  -1,755
  -1,847
  -1,944
  -2,044
  -2,150
  -2,261
  -2,377
  -2,499
  -2,627
  -2,761
  -2,901
  -3,048
  -3,203
  -3,365
  -3,536
  -3,714
  -3,902
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5,427
  5,434
  5,592
  5,756
  5,925
  6,101
  6,283
  6,473
  6,671
  6,877
  7,059
  7,283
  7,517
  7,762
  8,018
  8,340
  8,773
  9,226
  9,702
  10,200
  10,723
  11,271
  11,846
  12,449
  13,081
  13,744
  14,441
  15,171
  15,937
  16,742
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5,179
  4,925
  4,790
  4,636
  4,462
  4,270
  4,061
  3,838
  3,601
  3,353
  3,084
  2,826
  2,566
  2,308
  2,054
  1,821
  1,612
  1,410
  1,216
  1,033
  865
  712
  577
  459
  358
  274
  205
  150
  107
  75
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.2
  98.6
  97.8
  96.8
  95.8
  94.6
  93.2
  91.8
  90.3
  88.7
  87.0
  85.3
  83.5

The Allstate Corporation (Allstate) is a holding company for Allstate Insurance Company. The Company's business is conducted principally through Allstate Insurance Company, Allstate Life Insurance Company and other subsidiaries. It is engaged in the property-liability insurance business and the life insurance, retirement and investment products business. Its segments include Allstate Protection, Allstate Financial, Discontinued Lines and Coverages, and Corporate and Other. The Allstate Protection segment sells private passenger auto, homeowners, and other property-liability insurance products through agencies and directly through contact centers and the Internet. The Allstate Financial segment sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products. The Corporate and Other segment consists of holding company activities and certain non-insurance operations. Its Discontinued Lines and Coverages segment includes results from property-liability insurance coverage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allstate (ALL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 30.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.9%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 31.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 32.1%

ALL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $36847 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allstate. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Allstate. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for ALL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allstate, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allstate.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Allstate.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allstate. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALL are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 3.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allstate operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALL is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $20573 million for Allstate - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 359.469 million for Allstate is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allstate at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $37.3 billion.

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Financial statements of ALL
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