Intrinsic value of AstroNova, Inc. - ALOT

Previous Close

$19.92

  Intrinsic Value

$3.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$19.92

 
Intrinsic value

$3.38

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.90
  17.51
  16.26
  15.13
  14.12
  13.21
  12.39
  11.65
  10.98
  10.39
  9.85
  9.36
  8.93
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  134
  158
  184
  211
  241
  273
  307
  343
  380
  420
  461
  504
  549
  596
  645
  696
  748
  803
  860
  919
  980
  1,044
  1,111
  1,180
  1,252
  1,327
  1,406
  1,487
  1,572
  1,661
Variable operating expenses, $m
  126
  148
  172
  197
  225
  255
  286
  319
  354
  391
  428
  468
  510
  554
  599
  646
  695
  746
  799
  854
  911
  970
  1,032
  1,097
  1,164
  1,233
  1,306
  1,382
  1,461
  1,544
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  126
  148
  172
  197
  225
  255
  286
  319
  354
  391
  428
  468
  510
  554
  599
  646
  695
  746
  799
  854
  911
  970
  1,032
  1,097
  1,164
  1,233
  1,306
  1,382
  1,461
  1,544
Operating income, $m
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
EBITDA, $m
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  155
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
Tax expense, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Net income, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  145
  171
  199
  229
  261
  295
  332
  371
  411
  454
  499
  546
  594
  645
  698
  753
  810
  869
  931
  995
  1,061
  1,130
  1,202
  1,277
  1,355
  1,437
  1,521
  1,610
  1,702
  1,798
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  145
  171
  199
  229
  261
  295
  332
  371
  411
  454
  499
  546
  594
  645
  698
  753
  810
  869
  931
  995
  1,061
  1,130
  1,202
  1,277
  1,355
  1,437
  1,521
  1,610
  1,702
  1,798
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.924
  0.924
  0.925
  0.921
  0.923
  0.925
  0.925
  0.925
  0.925
  0.925
  0.924
  0.923
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.923
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.923
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
Average production assets, $m
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  79
  88
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  168
  180
  192
  205
  218
  232
  247
  262
  277
  294
  311
  329
  347
Working capital, $m
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  150
  163
  176
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  342
  362
  384
  406
  429
  454
Total debt, $m
  34
  46
  60
  74
  90
  106
  124
  142
  162
  183
  204
  226
  250
  274
  299
  326
  353
  382
  411
  442
  474
  507
  542
  578
  615
  654
  695
  737
  781
  828
Total liabilities, $m
  70
  82
  95
  110
  125
  142
  159
  178
  198
  218
  239
  262
  285
  310
  335
  361
  389
  417
  447
  477
  509
  543
  577
  613
  651
  690
  730
  773
  817
  863
Total equity, $m
  76
  89
  103
  119
  136
  154
  173
  193
  214
  236
  259
  284
  309
  335
  363
  391
  421
  452
  484
  517
  552
  588
  625
  664
  705
  747
  791
  837
  885
  935
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  146
  171
  198
  229
  261
  296
  332
  371
  412
  454
  498
  546
  594
  645
  698
  752
  810
  869
  931
  994
  1,061
  1,131
  1,202
  1,277
  1,356
  1,437
  1,521
  1,610
  1,702
  1,798
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.520
  0.580
  0.620
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  33
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
Discount rate, %
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.4
  91.4
  88.0
  85.1
  82.5
  80.3
  78.4
  76.8
  75.4
  74.2
  73.2
  72.4
  71.7
  71.2
  70.7
  70.3
  70.0
  69.8
  69.6
  69.4
  69.4
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3

AstroNova, Inc., formerly Astro-Med, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and distributes a range of specialty printers, and data acquisition and analysis systems. The Company operates through two segments: QuickLabel and Test & Measurement (T&M). The Company offers both hardware and software, which incorporate technologies in order to acquire, store, analyze and present data in multiple formats. It sells specialty printing systems, and test and measurement systems under the brand names, including QuickLabel. The QuickLabel segment offers product identification and label printer hardware, software, servicing contracts and consumable products. The T&M segment offers a suite of products and services that acquire and record visual and electronic signal data from local and networked sensors, as well as wired and wireless networks. It serves markets, such as aerospace, apparel, automotive, avionics, chemicals, computer peripherals, communications, distribution, and food and beverage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AstroNova, Inc. (ALOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.2
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 50%

ALOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $113 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AstroNova, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AstroNova, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for ALOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AstroNova, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AstroNova, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AstroNova, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AstroNova, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALOT are equal to 20.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AstroNova, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALOT is equal to 27.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $63.647 million for AstroNova, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.953 million for AstroNova, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AstroNova, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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