Intrinsic value of AstroNova - ALOT

Previous Close

$13.33

  Intrinsic Value

$2.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$13.33

 
Intrinsic value

$2.38

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of AstroNova (ALOT) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.16
  26.10
  23.99
  22.09
  20.38
  18.84
  17.46
  16.21
  15.09
  14.08
  13.17
  12.36
  11.62
  10.96
  10.36
  9.83
  9.34
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.23
  6.10
  5.99
Revenue, $m
  98
  124
  153
  187
  225
  268
  314
  365
  420
  480
  543
  610
  681
  755
  834
  916
  1,001
  1,090
  1,183
  1,280
  1,381
  1,485
  1,593
  1,706
  1,823
  1,945
  2,072
  2,204
  2,341
  2,484
  2,633
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  144
  175
  211
  250
  294
  342
  393
  448
  507
  570
  636
  706
  779
  855
  935
  1,018
  1,105
  1,195
  1,289
  1,387
  1,488
  1,593
  1,703
  1,817
  1,935
  2,058
  2,186
  2,320
  2,459
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  116
  144
  175
  211
  250
  294
  342
  393
  448
  507
  570
  636
  706
  779
  855
  935
  1,018
  1,105
  1,195
  1,289
  1,387
  1,488
  1,593
  1,703
  1,817
  1,935
  2,058
  2,186
  2,320
  2,459
Operating income, $m
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
EBITDA, $m
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  169
  179
  191
  202
  214
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
  137
  145
  154
  163
Tax expense, $m
  3
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
Net income, $m
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  84
  74
  92
  113
  136
  161
  189
  220
  253
  289
  327
  367
  410
  455
  502
  551
  603
  657
  712
  771
  831
  894
  959
  1,027
  1,098
  1,171
  1,247
  1,327
  1,409
  1,496
  1,585
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  59
  74
  92
  113
  136
  161
  189
  220
  253
  289
  327
  367
  410
  455
  502
  551
  603
  657
  712
  771
  831
  894
  959
  1,027
  1,098
  1,171
  1,247
  1,327
  1,409
  1,496
  1,585
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.661
  1.676
  1.663
  1.655
  1.654
  1.665
  1.661
  1.659
  1.660
  1.661
  1.661
  1.662
  1.661
  1.659
  1.661
  1.662
  1.660
  1.659
  1.662
  1.660
  1.662
  1.661
  1.661
  1.661
  1.660
  1.661
  1.662
  1.661
  1.661
  1.660
  1.661
Average production assets, $m
  15
  19
  23
  29
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  261
  279
  298
  317
  337
  358
  380
  403
Working capital, $m
  49
  30
  38
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  103
  118
  133
  149
  167
  185
  204
  224
  245
  267
  290
  314
  338
  364
  390
  418
  447
  477
  508
  540
  574
  609
  645
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  22
  29
  35
  43
  51
  59
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  131
  144
  157
  170
  184
  198
  213
  229
  245
  261
  279
  297
  316
  336
Total liabilities, $m
  13
  16
  20
  25
  30
  35
  42
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  121
  133
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  274
  292
  310
  329
  349
Total equity, $m
  71
  58
  72
  88
  106
  126
  148
  172
  197
  225
  255
  286
  320
  355
  392
  430
  470
  512
  556
  601
  648
  697
  748
  801
  856
  914
  973
  1,035
  1,099
  1,167
  1,236
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  84
  74
  92
  113
  136
  161
  190
  220
  253
  289
  327
  367
  410
  455
  502
  551
  603
  656
  713
  771
  831
  894
  959
  1,027
  1,098
  1,172
  1,247
  1,327
  1,409
  1,496
  1,585
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  142
  150
  159
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  3
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  9
  11
  11
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  11
  11
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  19
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.3
  82.7
  76.6
  71.8
  67.9
  64.9
  62.5
  60.6
  59.2
  58.2
  57.6
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2
  57.2

AstroNova, Inc., formerly Astro-Med, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and distributes a range of specialty printers, and data acquisition and analysis systems. The Company operates through two segments: QuickLabel and Test & Measurement (T&M). The Company offers both hardware and software, which incorporate technologies in order to acquire, store, analyze and present data in multiple formats. It sells specialty printing systems, and test and measurement systems under the brand names, including QuickLabel. The QuickLabel segment offers product identification and label printer hardware, software, servicing contracts and consumable products. The T&M segment offers a suite of products and services that acquire and record visual and electronic signal data from local and networked sensors, as well as wired and wireless networks. It serves markets, such as aerospace, apparel, automotive, avionics, chemicals, computer peripherals, communications, distribution, and food and beverage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AstroNova (ALOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 50%

ALOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $98 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AstroNova. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AstroNova. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AstroNova, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AstroNova.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AstroNova.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AstroNova. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALOT are equal to 15.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AstroNova operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALOT is equal to 24.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $71 million for AstroNova - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.943 million for AstroNova is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AstroNova at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to AstroNova, Inc. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AstroNova, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AstroNova, Inc. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 09:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ AstroNova posts 2Q profit   [Aug-23-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Photronics Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition   [Aug-14-17 04:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ AstroNova Names Interim Chief Financial Officer   [Aug-10-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ AstroNova to Present at the 2017 Marcum MicroCap Conference   [Jun-13-17 02:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ John Rogers of Ariel Fund Reduces 4 Positions   [Jun-09-17 07:08PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ AstroNova Wins Boeing Silver Performance Excellence Award   [Jun-01-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ AstroNova Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [May-18-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ AstroNova Announces Repurchase of Common Stock   [May-03-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AstroNova, Inc. : April 25, 2017   [Apr-25-17 03:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AstroNova, Inc. : April 12, 2017   [Apr-12-17 01:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AstroNovas QuickLabel® Business Unit Launches New Website   [Apr-06-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ AstroNova Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-13-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Webcast-Q4 Earnings Call for Astro-Med, Inc.   [Mar-07-17 11:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ AstroNova Announces CFO Transition   [08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Boeing Awards AstroNova 2015 Performance Excellence Award   [Jun-28-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ AstroNova to Present at 2016 Marcum MicroCap Conference   [May-31-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of ALOT
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