Intrinsic value of Alliqua BioMedical - ALQA

Previous Close

$1.90

  Intrinsic Value

$1.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-47%

Previous close

$1.90

 
Intrinsic value

$1.00

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALQA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  50.00
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  18
  27
  39
  56
  77
  103
  136
  175
  221
  275
  337
  406
  484
  570
  663
  765
  874
  990
  1,114
  1,245
  1,383
  1,528
  1,680
  1,838
  2,003
  2,175
  2,354
  2,541
  2,734
  2,935
  3,144
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  51
  72
  98
  132
  173
  222
  281
  349
  427
  514
  613
  721
  840
  968
  1,107
  1,254
  1,411
  1,577
  1,752
  1,935
  2,127
  2,328
  2,537
  2,755
  2,982
  3,217
  3,462
  3,717
  3,982
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
Total operating expenses, $m
  50
  63
  79
  101
  128
  163
  204
  254
  314
  383
  462
  549
  649
  758
  878
  1,007
  1,147
  1,295
  1,453
  1,620
  1,796
  1,980
  2,173
  2,376
  2,586
  2,805
  3,033
  3,270
  3,516
  3,772
  4,039
Operating income, $m
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -59
  -69
  -80
  -93
  -108
  -125
  -144
  -165
  -189
  -215
  -243
  -273
  -305
  -339
  -375
  -413
  -452
  -494
  -537
  -582
  -629
  -678
  -729
  -782
  -837
  -894
EBITDA, $m
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -173
  -189
  -207
  -225
  -244
  -264
  -284
  -306
  -328
  -351
  -375
  -400
  -426
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  2
  4
  7
  10
  14
  20
  26
  33
  42
  51
  62
  75
  88
  103
  119
  136
  155
  174
  195
  217
  239
  263
  288
  314
  342
  370
  399
  430
  462
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -49
  -58
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -119
  -141
  -167
  -195
  -228
  -264
  -303
  -346
  -392
  -441
  -493
  -549
  -607
  -669
  -733
  -801
  -871
  -944
  -1,020
  -1,099
  -1,181
  -1,267
  -1,356
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -37
  -42
  -49
  -58
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -119
  -141
  -167
  -195
  -228
  -264
  -303
  -346
  -392
  -441
  -493
  -549
  -607
  -669
  -733
  -801
  -871
  -944
  -1,020
  -1,099
  -1,181
  -1,267
  -1,356

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  55
  74
  107
  151
  209
  281
  369
  476
  602
  749
  917
  1,107
  1,319
  1,552
  1,807
  2,084
  2,381
  2,699
  3,036
  3,393
  3,769
  4,164
  4,577
  5,008
  5,459
  5,928
  6,415
  6,923
  7,450
  7,998
  8,567
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  49
  74
  107
  151
  209
  281
  369
  476
  602
  749
  917
  1,107
  1,319
  1,552
  1,807
  2,084
  2,381
  2,699
  3,036
  3,393
  3,769
  4,164
  4,577
  5,008
  5,459
  5,928
  6,415
  6,923
  7,450
  7,998
  8,567
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.367
  0.365
  0.364
  0.371
  0.368
  0.367
  0.369
  0.368
  0.367
  0.367
  0.368
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
Average production assets, $m
  34
  50
  73
  103
  143
  192
  252
  325
  411
  512
  626
  756
  901
  1,060
  1,234
  1,423
  1,626
  1,843
  2,074
  2,317
  2,574
  2,844
  3,126
  3,421
  3,728
  4,048
  4,382
  4,728
  5,088
  5,462
  5,851
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -63
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -110
  -124
  -138
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -204
  -222
  -241
  -261
  -282
  -303
  -326
  -349
Total debt, $m
  12
  15
  26
  42
  61
  86
  117
  154
  198
  249
  307
  373
  447
  528
  616
  712
  815
  925
  1,043
  1,166
  1,297
  1,434
  1,577
  1,727
  1,883
  2,046
  2,215
  2,391
  2,574
  2,764
  2,962
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  26
  37
  53
  72
  97
  128
  165
  209
  260
  318
  384
  458
  539
  627
  723
  826
  936
  1,054
  1,177
  1,308
  1,445
  1,588
  1,738
  1,894
  2,057
  2,226
  2,402
  2,585
  2,775
  2,973
Total equity, $m
  32
  48
  70
  99
  136
  183
  241
  311
  393
  489
  599
  723
  861
  1,014
  1,180
  1,361
  1,555
  1,762
  1,983
  2,216
  2,461
  2,719
  2,989
  3,271
  3,565
  3,871
  4,189
  4,521
  4,865
  5,223
  5,594
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  54
  74
  107
  152
  208
  280
  369
  476
  602
  749
  917
  1,107
  1,319
  1,553
  1,807
  2,084
  2,381
  2,698
  3,037
  3,393
  3,769
  4,164
  4,577
  5,009
  5,459
  5,928
  6,415
  6,923
  7,450
  7,998
  8,567
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.375
  0.300
  0.370
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -37
  -42
  -49
  -58
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -119
  -141
  -167
  -195
  -228
  -264
  -303
  -346
  -392
  -441
  -493
  -549
  -607
  -669
  -733
  -801
  -871
  -944
  -1,020
  -1,099
  -1,181
  -1,267
  -1,356
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  60
  72
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  166
  185
  206
  227
  250
  274
  298
  324
  351
  378
  407
  437
  468
Funds from operations, $m
  -15
  -32
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -85
  -99
  -116
  -134
  -155
  -179
  -204
  -232
  -262
  -294
  -328
  -364
  -401
  -441
  -483
  -527
  -573
  -620
  -670
  -721
  -774
  -830
  -888
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -68
  -79
  -93
  -109
  -127
  -147
  -169
  -194
  -221
  -250
  -281
  -314
  -349
  -386
  -425
  -466
  -509
  -554
  -601
  -650
  -700
  -753
  -808
  -864
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -50
  -60
  -72
  -85
  -99
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -166
  -185
  -206
  -227
  -250
  -274
  -298
  -324
  -351
  -378
  -407
  -437
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -39
  -49
  -61
  -73
  -86
  -100
  -115
  -130
  -145
  -160
  -174
  -189
  -203
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -389
Cash from investing activities, $m
  2
  -20
  -27
  -36
  -47
  -60
  -76
  -93
  -112
  -133
  -156
  -180
  -205
  -232
  -259
  -288
  -317
  -347
  -377
  -410
  -442
  -476
  -509
  -545
  -581
  -618
  -657
  -697
  -738
  -781
  -826
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -50
  -61
  -74
  -91
  -111
  -134
  -161
  -192
  -226
  -265
  -306
  -352
  -401
  -453
  -508
  -566
  -628
  -692
  -759
  -828
  -901
  -976
  -1,054
  -1,135
  -1,219
  -1,307
  -1,397
  -1,491
  -1,589
  -1,690
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  9
  12
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
  73
  81
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  53
  64
  78
  96
  116
  141
  169
  201
  237
  277
  319
  366
  416
  470
  526
  586
  648
  714
  782
  853
  927
  1,003
  1,082
  1,165
  1,250
  1,339
  1,430
  1,526
  1,625
  1,728
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  62
  76
  93
  116
  141
  172
  206
  245
  288
  335
  385
  439
  497
  559
  622
  689
  758
  831
  906
  983
  1,064
  1,146
  1,232
  1,321
  1,413
  1,508
  1,606
  1,709
  1,815
  1,926
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -21
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  78
  87
  96
  105
  114
  123
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  170
  178
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -53
  -64
  -78
  -96
  -116
  -141
  -169
  -201
  -237
  -277
  -319
  -366
  -416
  -470
  -526
  -586
  -648
  -714
  -782
  -853
  -927
  -1,003
  -1,082
  -1,165
  -1,250
  -1,339
  -1,430
  -1,526
  -1,625
  -1,728
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -42
  -49
  -59
  -71
  -86
  -103
  -124
  -148
  -175
  -206
  -241
  -278
  -320
  -364
  -412
  -463
  -517
  -575
  -635
  -698
  -764
  -833
  -904
  -979
  -1,057
  -1,137
  -1,221
  -1,308
  -1,399
  -1,493
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -77
  -76
  -73
  -69
  -64
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -37
  -31
  -25
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  29.7
  10.2
  3.9
  1.6
  0.7
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Alliqua BioMedical, Inc. is a provider of advanced wound care solutions. The Company's businesses include advanced wound care and contract manufacturing. The Company operates through its subsidiaries, such as AquaMed Technologies, Inc. and Choice Therapeutics, Inc. The Company is engaged in developing a suite of advanced wound care solutions that will enable surgeons, clinicians and wound care practitioners to address the challenges in chronic and acute wounds. The Company utilizes hydrogel technology through which hydrogels are manufactured by introducing a hydrophilic polymer into water to create a feed mix. The Company's commercial wound care portfolio consists of over four product categories, such as Human Biologics; Antimicrobial Protection; Exudate Management and Contract Manufacturing. Human Biologics include BIOVANCE and Extracellular Matrix (ECM). Under Antimicrobial Protection, the Company offers SilverSeal.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliqua BioMedical (ALQA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 50%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 37.5%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.4%
Return On Total Capital -51.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -82.3%
Return On Equity -66.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -90.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.9%
EBITDA Margin -150%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -279.4%
Operating Margin -177.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -309.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -183.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -308.3%
Net Profit Margin -155.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -290.7%
Effective Tax Rate 3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALQA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALQA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $18 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliqua BioMedical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alliqua BioMedical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALQA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for ALQA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliqua BioMedical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliqua BioMedical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALQA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 133.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $27 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALQA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.7% for Alliqua BioMedical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliqua BioMedical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALQA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALQA are equal to 186.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliqua BioMedical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALQA is equal to -11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $32 million for Alliqua BioMedical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.009 million for Alliqua BioMedical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliqua BioMedical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alliqua reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alliqua, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Alliqua BioMedical Inc (ALQA)?   [Oct-17-17 07:31PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ [$$] The Add-On Deal Roundup: Sept. 5   [06:25PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Alliqua reports 2Q loss   [Aug-10-17 11:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alliqua reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 08:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Crazy About A. M. Castle & Co (CASL) Anymore   [Dec-20-16 02:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of ALQA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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