Intrinsic value of Alarm.Com Holdings - ALRM

Previous Close

$38.40

  Intrinsic Value

$28.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-25%

Previous close

$38.40

 
Intrinsic value

$28.80

 
Up/down potential

-25%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALRM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Alarm.Com Holdings (ALRM) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.88
  32.40
  29.66
  27.19
  24.97
  22.98
  21.18
  19.56
  18.11
  16.79
  15.62
  14.55
  13.60
  12.74
  11.96
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
Revenue, $m
  261
  346
  448
  570
  712
  876
  1,061
  1,269
  1,499
  1,750
  2,024
  2,318
  2,634
  2,969
  3,324
  3,699
  4,093
  4,505
  4,936
  5,386
  5,855
  6,342
  6,850
  7,377
  7,925
  8,494
  9,086
  9,701
  10,341
  11,006
  11,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  316
  409
  519
  648
  796
  965
  1,153
  1,361
  1,589
  1,837
  2,101
  2,387
  2,691
  3,013
  3,353
  3,710
  4,083
  4,474
  4,882
  5,307
  5,749
  6,209
  6,687
  7,183
  7,699
  8,236
  8,794
  9,373
  9,976
  10,604
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  247
  316
  409
  519
  648
  796
  965
  1,153
  1,361
  1,589
  1,837
  2,101
  2,387
  2,691
  3,013
  3,353
  3,710
  4,083
  4,474
  4,882
  5,307
  5,749
  6,209
  6,687
  7,183
  7,699
  8,236
  8,794
  9,373
  9,976
  10,604
Operating income, $m
  14
  30
  39
  51
  64
  79
  97
  116
  138
  161
  187
  217
  246
  278
  311
  346
  383
  422
  462
  504
  548
  594
  641
  690
  742
  795
  850
  908
  968
  1,030
  1,095
EBITDA, $m
  20
  36
  47
  60
  74
  92
  111
  133
  157
  183
  212
  242
  275
  311
  348
  387
  428
  471
  516
  563
  612
  663
  716
  771
  829
  888
  950
  1,015
  1,081
  1,151
  1,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  30
  38
  49
  61
  75
  91
  109
  128
  149
  173
  200
  227
  255
  285
  317
  350
  385
  422
  460
  500
  541
  584
  628
  675
  723
  773
  825
  879
  935
  994
Tax expense, $m
  4
  8
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  29
  35
  40
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  209
  223
  237
  252
  268
Net income, $m
  10
  22
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  146
  166
  186
  208
  232
  256
  281
  308
  336
  365
  395
  426
  459
  492
  528
  564
  602
  642
  683
  725

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  261
  159
  206
  262
  327
  403
  488
  583
  689
  805
  931
  1,066
  1,211
  1,365
  1,528
  1,701
  1,882
  2,071
  2,269
  2,476
  2,692
  2,916
  3,149
  3,392
  3,644
  3,905
  4,178
  4,460
  4,754
  5,060
  5,379
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  120
  159
  206
  262
  327
  403
  488
  583
  689
  805
  931
  1,066
  1,211
  1,365
  1,528
  1,701
  1,882
  2,071
  2,269
  2,476
  2,692
  2,916
  3,149
  3,392
  3,644
  3,905
  4,178
  4,460
  4,754
  5,060
  5,379
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.175
  2.176
  2.175
  2.176
  2.177
  2.174
  2.174
  2.177
  2.176
  2.174
  2.174
  2.174
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
  2.175
Average production assets, $m
  23
  30
  39
  50
  63
  77
  93
  112
  132
  154
  178
  204
  232
  261
  293
  326
  360
  396
  434
  474
  515
  558
  603
  649
  697
  748
  800
  854
  910
  969
  1,029
Working capital, $m
  150
  12
  15
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  60
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  216
  233
  251
  269
  289
  309
  330
  352
  374
  398
Total debt, $m
  7
  30
  57
  90
  128
  172
  222
  277
  339
  406
  479
  558
  643
  733
  828
  928
  1,034
  1,145
  1,260
  1,381
  1,506
  1,637
  1,773
  1,914
  2,061
  2,214
  2,373
  2,537
  2,709
  2,887
  3,073
Total liabilities, $m
  70
  93
  120
  153
  191
  235
  285
  340
  402
  469
  542
  621
  706
  796
  891
  991
  1,097
  1,208
  1,323
  1,444
  1,569
  1,700
  1,836
  1,977
  2,124
  2,277
  2,436
  2,600
  2,772
  2,950
  3,136
Total equity, $m
  191
  66
  86
  109
  137
  168
  203
  243
  287
  336
  388
  444
  505
  569
  637
  709
  785
  864
  946
  1,033
  1,122
  1,216
  1,313
  1,414
  1,519
  1,629
  1,742
  1,860
  1,983
  2,110
  2,243
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  261
  159
  206
  262
  328
  403
  488
  583
  689
  805
  930
  1,065
  1,211
  1,365
  1,528
  1,700
  1,882
  2,072
  2,269
  2,477
  2,691
  2,916
  3,149
  3,391
  3,643
  3,906
  4,178
  4,460
  4,755
  5,060
  5,379
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.037
  0.450
  0.660
  0.820
  0.940
  1.020
  1.090
  1.140
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  22
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  146
  166
  186
  208
  232
  256
  281
  308
  336
  365
  395
  426
  459
  492
  528
  564
  602
  642
  683
  725
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  28
  35
  44
  55
  67
  80
  96
  112
  131
  151
  172
  195
  219
  245
  272
  301
  331
  362
  395
  429
  465
  501
  540
  580
  621
  664
  709
  755
  804
  854
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  25
  32
  40
  50
  61
  74
  89
  105
  122
  142
  162
  184
  208
  233
  259
  287
  317
  348
  380
  413
  448
  484
  522
  561
  602
  644
  688
  734
  781
  831
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -182
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  15
  19
  25
  31
  39
  48
  59
  70
  84
  98
  113
  131
  149
  169
  190
  212
  236
  260
  286
  313
  341
  370
  400
  432
  464
  498
  534
  571
  609
  649
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  23
  27
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  23
  27
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  37
  47
  57
  69
  83
  98
  114
  132
  151
  171
  192
  215
  239
  264
  290
  318
  346
  376
  406
  438
  471
  506
  541
  579
  617
  657
  699
  742
  787
  834
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  162
  27
  34
  42
  52
  62
  75
  88
  103
  119
  136
  155
  175
  196
  219
  242
  267
  293
  320
  348
  378
  408
  440
  473
  508
  544
  581
  619
  660
  701
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  155
  25
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  62
  65
  66
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  66
  64
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  58
  54
  49
  44
  39
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a platform solution for the connected property. The Company offers a suite of cloud-based solutions for the smart home and business, including interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation and energy management. The Company operates through two segments: Alarm.com and Other. The Alarm.com segment represents its cloud-based platform for the intelligently connected property solutions. The Other segment is focused on researching and developing home and commercial automation and energy management products and services for sale in adjacent markets. Its solutions are used in both smart homes and businesses. It is involved in designing and manufacturing various types of hardware that enable its solutions, including cellular communication modules, image sensor, video cameras and alarm.com smart thermostat. The Company offers a suite of high definition, Internet protocol (IP), video cameras to enable its video monitoring services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alarm.Com Holdings (ALRM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 177.2
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 9.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 98.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 253.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 40.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 3.7%
Total Debt to Equity 3.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Equity 5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALRM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALRM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alarm.Com Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alarm.Com Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALRM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALRM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alarm.Com Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alarm.Com Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALRM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALRM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Alarm.Com Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alarm.Com Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALRM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALRM are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alarm.Com Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALRM is equal to 3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $191 million for Alarm.Com Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.152 million for Alarm.Com Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alarm.Com Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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▶ Alarm.com Raises Its Outlook for the Year   [Aug-09-17 09:05PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ No better time to sell: Alarm.com execs cash in on record stock price   [Jun-05-17 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Alarm.com to Participate at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-31-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
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Financial statements of ALRM
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