Intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. - ALSN

Previous Close

$44.97

  Intrinsic Value

$103.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+130%

Previous close

$44.97

 
Intrinsic value

$103.54

 
Up/down potential

+130%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  2,984
  3,268
  3,564
  3,872
  4,192
  4,526
  4,872
  5,232
  5,606
  5,995
  6,400
  6,820
  7,257
  7,713
  8,186
  8,680
  9,194
  9,731
  10,290
  10,874
  11,484
  12,121
  12,787
  13,483
  14,211
  14,972
  15,769
  16,604
  17,477
  18,392
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,161
  1,242
  1,328
  1,416
  1,509
  1,605
  1,705
  1,808
  1,916
  2,028
  1,844
  1,965
  2,091
  2,222
  2,359
  2,501
  2,649
  2,804
  2,965
  3,134
  3,309
  3,493
  3,685
  3,885
  4,095
  4,315
  4,544
  4,785
  5,036
  5,300
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  739
  755
  772
  789
  806
  824
  842
  860
  879
  899
  919
  939
  959
  981
  1,002
  1,024
  1,047
  1,070
  1,093
  1,117
  1,142
  1,167
  1,193
  1,219
  1,246
  1,273
  1,301
  1,330
  1,359
  1,389
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,900
  1,997
  2,100
  2,205
  2,315
  2,429
  2,547
  2,668
  2,795
  2,927
  2,763
  2,904
  3,050
  3,203
  3,361
  3,525
  3,696
  3,874
  4,058
  4,251
  4,451
  4,660
  4,878
  5,104
  5,341
  5,588
  5,845
  6,115
  6,395
  6,689
Operating income, $m
  1,085
  1,270
  1,464
  1,667
  1,877
  2,097
  2,325
  2,563
  2,811
  3,068
  3,637
  3,916
  4,207
  4,510
  4,825
  5,155
  5,498
  5,857
  6,232
  6,623
  7,033
  7,461
  7,910
  8,379
  8,870
  9,385
  9,924
  10,489
  11,082
  11,703
EBITDA, $m
  1,487
  1,683
  1,887
  2,099
  2,321
  2,552
  2,793
  3,043
  3,303
  3,574
  3,856
  4,149
  4,455
  4,773
  5,105
  5,451
  5,812
  6,189
  6,583
  6,995
  7,425
  7,875
  8,346
  8,839
  9,356
  9,896
  10,463
  11,057
  11,679
  12,332
Interest expense (income), $m
  78
  136
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  265
  290
  316
  342
  370
  399
  429
  460
  492
  526
  561
  598
  636
  676
  717
  761
  806
  854
  903
  955
  1,009
  1,066
  1,125
  1,188
Earnings before tax, $m
  948
  1,115
  1,288
  1,470
  1,659
  1,855
  2,060
  2,273
  2,495
  2,726
  3,267
  3,517
  3,778
  4,050
  4,333
  4,629
  4,937
  5,259
  5,596
  5,948
  6,316
  6,700
  7,103
  7,525
  7,967
  8,430
  8,915
  9,423
  9,957
  10,516
Tax expense, $m
  256
  301
  348
  397
  448
  501
  556
  614
  674
  736
  882
  950
  1,020
  1,093
  1,170
  1,250
  1,333
  1,420
  1,511
  1,606
  1,705
  1,809
  1,918
  2,032
  2,151
  2,276
  2,407
  2,544
  2,688
  2,839
Net income, $m
  692
  814
  941
  1,073
  1,211
  1,354
  1,504
  1,660
  1,821
  1,990
  2,385
  2,568
  2,758
  2,956
  3,163
  3,379
  3,604
  3,839
  4,085
  4,342
  4,610
  4,891
  5,185
  5,493
  5,816
  6,154
  6,508
  6,879
  7,268
  7,677

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,663
  5,106
  5,568
  6,049
  6,550
  7,071
  7,613
  8,175
  8,760
  9,368
  10,000
  10,656
  11,340
  12,051
  12,791
  13,562
  14,366
  15,204
  16,079
  16,991
  17,944
  18,939
  19,980
  21,067
  22,204
  23,394
  24,640
  25,943
  27,308
  28,738
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,663
  5,106
  5,568
  6,049
  6,550
  7,071
  7,613
  8,175
  8,760
  9,368
  10,000
  10,656
  11,340
  12,051
  12,791
  13,562
  14,366
  15,204
  16,079
  16,991
  17,944
  18,939
  19,980
  21,067
  22,204
  23,394
  24,640
  25,943
  27,308
  28,738
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
Average production assets, $m
  2,182
  2,389
  2,605
  2,830
  3,065
  3,308
  3,562
  3,825
  4,098
  4,383
  4,678
  4,985
  5,305
  5,638
  5,984
  6,345
  6,721
  7,113
  7,522
  7,949
  8,395
  8,861
  9,347
  9,856
  10,388
  10,945
  11,527
  12,137
  12,776
  13,445
Working capital, $m
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  181
  193
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
  460
Total debt, $m
  2,881
  3,254
  3,644
  4,051
  4,473
  4,913
  5,370
  5,845
  6,339
  6,851
  7,385
  7,939
  8,516
  9,116
  9,741
  10,392
  11,070
  11,777
  12,515
  13,286
  14,090
  14,930
  15,808
  16,726
  17,686
  18,690
  19,741
  20,841
  21,993
  23,200
Total liabilities, $m
  3,936
  4,309
  4,699
  5,106
  5,528
  5,968
  6,425
  6,900
  7,394
  7,906
  8,440
  8,994
  9,571
  10,171
  10,796
  11,447
  12,125
  12,832
  13,570
  14,341
  15,145
  15,985
  16,863
  17,781
  18,741
  19,745
  20,796
  21,896
  23,048
  24,255
Total equity, $m
  727
  797
  869
  944
  1,022
  1,103
  1,188
  1,275
  1,367
  1,461
  1,560
  1,662
  1,769
  1,880
  1,995
  2,116
  2,241
  2,372
  2,508
  2,651
  2,799
  2,955
  3,117
  3,286
  3,464
  3,650
  3,844
  4,047
  4,260
  4,483
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,663
  5,106
  5,568
  6,050
  6,550
  7,071
  7,613
  8,175
  8,761
  9,367
  10,000
  10,656
  11,340
  12,051
  12,791
  13,563
  14,366
  15,204
  16,078
  16,992
  17,944
  18,940
  19,980
  21,067
  22,205
  23,395
  24,640
  25,943
  27,308
  28,738
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.960
  4.090
  4.200
  4.290
  4.380
  4.450
  4.520
  4.580
  4.640
  4.690
  4.730
  4.780
  4.810
  4.850
  4.880
  4.910
  4.940
  4.970
  4.990
  5.010
  5.030
  5.050
  5.070
  5.090
  5.110
  5.120
  5.140
  5.150
  5.160
  5.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  692
  814
  941
  1,073
  1,211
  1,354
  1,504
  1,660
  1,821
  1,990
  2,385
  2,568
  2,758
  2,956
  3,163
  3,379
  3,604
  3,839
  4,085
  4,342
  4,610
  4,891
  5,185
  5,493
  5,816
  6,154
  6,508
  6,879
  7,268
  7,677
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  403
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  467
  479
  492
  505
  219
  233
  248
  263
  280
  296
  314
  332
  352
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  485
  511
  539
  567
  597
  628
Funds from operations, $m
  1,095
  1,226
  1,363
  1,506
  1,655
  1,810
  1,971
  2,139
  2,314
  2,495
  2,604
  2,801
  3,006
  3,220
  3,443
  3,675
  3,918
  4,172
  4,436
  4,713
  5,003
  5,305
  5,622
  5,954
  6,301
  6,665
  7,047
  7,446
  7,865
  8,305
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  1,088
  1,219
  1,356
  1,498
  1,647
  1,801
  1,962
  2,130
  2,304
  2,486
  2,593
  2,790
  2,995
  3,208
  3,431
  3,663
  3,905
  4,158
  4,422
  4,699
  4,987
  5,289
  5,606
  5,937
  6,283
  6,646
  7,027
  7,425
  7,843
  8,282
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -155
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -263
  -280
  -296
  -314
  -332
  -352
  -371
  -392
  -414
  -437
  -461
  -485
  -511
  -539
  -567
  -597
New CAPEX, $m
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -284
  -296
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -361
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -427
  -446
  -466
  -487
  -509
  -532
  -557
  -583
  -610
  -639
  -669
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -292
  -309
  -328
  -347
  -366
  -387
  -408
  -429
  -453
  -476
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -581
  -609
  -641
  -672
  -706
  -741
  -779
  -817
  -858
  -901
  -946
  -993
  -1,042
  -1,094
  -1,149
  -1,206
  -1,266
Free cash flow, $m
  796
  910
  1,028
  1,151
  1,280
  1,414
  1,554
  1,700
  1,852
  2,010
  2,093
  2,264
  2,442
  2,628
  2,821
  3,023
  3,233
  3,452
  3,681
  3,920
  4,170
  4,432
  4,705
  4,991
  5,290
  5,604
  5,933
  6,277
  6,638
  7,016
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  358
  374
  390
  406
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  554
  577
  600
  625
  651
  678
  707
  738
  770
  804
  840
  878
  918
  960
  1,004
  1,051
  1,100
  1,152
  1,207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  358
  374
  390
  406
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  554
  577
  600
  625
  651
  678
  707
  738
  770
  804
  840
  878
  918
  960
  1,004
  1,051
  1,100
  1,152
  1,207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,154
  1,284
  1,418
  1,557
  1,703
  1,854
  2,011
  2,175
  2,346
  2,523
  2,626
  2,819
  3,019
  3,228
  3,446
  3,673
  3,911
  4,159
  4,419
  4,690
  4,974
  5,272
  5,583
  5,909
  6,250
  6,608
  6,984
  7,377
  7,790
  8,223
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,085
  1,215
  1,346
  1,482
  1,625
  1,773
  1,927
  2,087
  2,254
  2,428
  2,528
  2,716
  2,912
  3,117
  3,330
  3,553
  3,786
  4,029
  4,283
  4,548
  4,826
  5,116
  5,421
  5,739
  6,073
  6,423
  6,789
  7,174
  7,577
  8,000
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,003
  1,030
  1,038
  1,031
  1,010
  976
  929
  871
  805
  733
  636
  562
  488
  416
  349
  286
  230
  181
  140
  105
  77
  55
  39
  26
  17
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries design and manufacture commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions. The Company manufactures fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium-and heavy-tactical United States defense vehicles. The Company's transmissions are used in a range of applications, including on-highway trucks (distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency), buses (primarily school, transit and hybrid-transit), motorhomes, off-highway vehicles and equipment (energy, mining and construction) and defense vehicles (wheeled and tracked). The Company's transmissions are sold under the Allison Transmission brand name and remanufactured transmissions are sold under the ReTran brand name. The Company has developed over 100 different models that were used in more than 2,500 different vehicle configurations and were compatible with over 500 combinations of engines, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.3
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 198.8%
Total Debt to Equity 199.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin 24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 47%

ALSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2713 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for ALSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $723 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALSN are equal to 73.1%.

Life of production assets of 21.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALSN is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $659 million for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 126.177 million for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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