Intrinsic value of Altair Engineering Inc. - ALTR

Previous Close

$36.97

  Intrinsic Value

$1,286

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$36.97

 
Intrinsic value

$1,286

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  790
  1,221
  1,826
  2,650
  3,738
  5,140
  6,899
  9,059
  11,656
  14,723
  18,282
  22,352
  26,941
  32,055
  37,691
  43,844
  50,504
  57,662
  65,305
  73,422
  82,003
  91,038
  100,521
  110,447
  120,815
  131,626
  142,884
  154,598
  166,778
  179,438
Variable operating expenses, $m
  173
  265
  396
  573
  807
  1,108
  1,486
  1,950
  2,508
  3,167
  3,929
  4,804
  5,790
  6,889
  8,101
  9,423
  10,855
  12,393
  14,036
  15,780
  17,625
  19,567
  21,605
  23,738
  25,966
  28,290
  30,710
  33,227
  35,845
  38,566
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  307
  313
  320
  327
  334
  342
  349
  357
  365
  373
  381
  390
  398
  407
  416
  425
  434
  444
  454
  464
  474
  484
  495
  506
  517
  528
  540
  552
  564
  576
Total operating expenses, $m
  480
  578
  716
  900
  1,141
  1,450
  1,835
  2,307
  2,873
  3,540
  4,310
  5,194
  6,188
  7,296
  8,517
  9,848
  11,289
  12,837
  14,490
  16,244
  18,099
  20,051
  22,100
  24,244
  26,483
  28,818
  31,250
  33,779
  36,409
  39,142
Operating income, $m
  311
  642
  1,111
  1,750
  2,598
  3,690
  5,064
  6,752
  8,783
  11,182
  13,972
  17,158
  20,753
  24,759
  29,174
  33,996
  39,215
  44,825
  50,816
  57,178
  63,904
  70,987
  78,421
  86,203
  94,331
  102,808
  111,635
  120,819
  130,369
  140,295
EBITDA, $m
  327
  666
  1,145
  1,798
  2,664
  3,780
  5,184
  6,908
  8,984
  11,436
  14,282
  17,538
  21,211
  25,303
  29,815
  34,740
  40,073
  45,804
  51,925
  58,425
  65,297
  72,534
  80,129
  88,079
  96,384
  105,043
  114,062
  123,445
  133,202
  143,343
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  8
  17
  30
  48
  72
  102
  139
  186
  242
  308
  384
  472
  570
  680
  802
  934
  1,077
  1,231
  1,395
  1,570
  1,755
  1,949
  2,153
  2,366
  2,589
  2,822
  3,064
  3,316
  3,578
Earnings before tax, $m
  309
  634
  1,093
  1,720
  2,549
  3,619
  4,962
  6,612
  8,597
  10,941
  13,664
  16,774
  20,281
  24,188
  28,494
  33,194
  38,281
  43,748
  49,585
  55,783
  62,334
  69,233
  76,472
  84,050
  91,965
  100,218
  108,813
  117,755
  127,054
  136,718
Tax expense, $m
  83
  171
  295
  464
  688
  977
  1,340
  1,785
  2,321
  2,954
  3,689
  4,529
  5,476
  6,531
  7,693
  8,962
  10,336
  11,812
  13,388
  15,061
  16,830
  18,693
  20,648
  22,694
  24,831
  27,059
  29,380
  31,794
  34,304
  36,914
Net income, $m
  226
  463
  798
  1,255
  1,861
  2,642
  3,622
  4,827
  6,276
  7,987
  9,975
  12,245
  14,805
  17,657
  20,801
  24,232
  27,945
  31,936
  36,197
  40,721
  45,504
  50,540
  55,825
  61,357
  67,135
  73,159
  79,434
  85,961
  92,749
  99,804

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  773
  1,195
  1,787
  2,593
  3,658
  5,029
  6,750
  8,864
  11,405
  14,406
  17,889
  21,871
  26,361
  31,365
  36,880
  42,900
  49,417
  56,421
  63,899
  71,842
  80,238
  89,078
  98,357
  108,069
  118,214
  128,792
  139,809
  151,270
  163,188
  175,575
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  773
  1,195
  1,787
  2,593
  3,658
  5,029
  6,750
  8,864
  11,405
  14,406
  17,889
  21,871
  26,361
  31,365
  36,880
  42,900
  49,417
  56,421
  63,899
  71,842
  80,238
  89,078
  98,357
  108,069
  118,214
  128,792
  139,809
  151,270
  163,188
  175,575
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
  1.022
Average production assets, $m
  196
  303
  453
  657
  927
  1,275
  1,711
  2,247
  2,891
  3,651
  4,534
  5,543
  6,681
  7,950
  9,347
  10,873
  12,525
  14,300
  16,196
  18,209
  20,337
  22,577
  24,929
  27,391
  29,962
  32,643
  35,435
  38,340
  41,361
  44,501
Working capital, $m
  -14
  -22
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -93
  -124
  -163
  -210
  -265
  -329
  -402
  -485
  -577
  -678
  -789
  -909
  -1,038
  -1,175
  -1,322
  -1,476
  -1,639
  -1,809
  -1,988
  -2,175
  -2,369
  -2,572
  -2,783
  -3,002
  -3,230
Total debt, $m
  150
  322
  563
  891
  1,324
  1,882
  2,583
  3,443
  4,477
  5,698
  7,116
  8,737
  10,564
  12,601
  14,845
  17,296
  19,948
  22,799
  25,842
  29,075
  32,492
  36,090
  39,867
  43,820
  47,948
  52,254
  56,737
  61,402
  66,253
  71,294
Total liabilities, $m
  315
  486
  727
  1,055
  1,489
  2,047
  2,747
  3,607
  4,642
  5,863
  7,281
  8,901
  10,729
  12,766
  15,010
  17,460
  20,113
  22,963
  26,007
  29,240
  32,657
  36,255
  40,031
  43,984
  48,113
  52,418
  56,902
  61,567
  66,418
  71,459
Total equity, $m
  459
  709
  1,060
  1,538
  2,169
  2,982
  4,003
  5,256
  6,763
  8,543
  10,608
  12,969
  15,632
  18,599
  21,870
  25,440
  29,304
  33,457
  37,892
  42,602
  47,581
  52,823
  58,326
  64,085
  70,101
  76,374
  82,907
  89,703
  96,771
  104,116
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  774
  1,195
  1,787
  2,593
  3,658
  5,029
  6,750
  8,863
  11,405
  14,406
  17,889
  21,870
  26,361
  31,365
  36,880
  42,900
  49,417
  56,420
  63,899
  71,842
  80,238
  89,078
  98,357
  108,069
  118,214
  128,792
  139,809
  151,270
  163,189
  175,575
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.450
  0.530
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  226
  463
  798
  1,255
  1,861
  2,642
  3,622
  4,827
  6,276
  7,987
  9,975
  12,245
  14,805
  17,657
  20,801
  24,232
  27,945
  31,936
  36,197
  40,721
  45,504
  50,540
  55,825
  61,357
  67,135
  73,159
  79,434
  85,961
  92,749
  99,804
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  24
  34
  48
  67
  90
  120
  157
  201
  253
  311
  380
  458
  544
  640
  745
  858
  979
  1,109
  1,247
  1,393
  1,546
  1,707
  1,876
  2,052
  2,236
  2,427
  2,626
  2,833
  3,048
Funds from operations, $m
  242
  487
  832
  1,303
  1,928
  2,732
  3,742
  4,984
  6,477
  8,240
  10,285
  12,625
  15,263
  18,202
  21,441
  24,976
  28,803
  32,915
  37,306
  41,969
  46,897
  52,086
  57,532
  63,233
  69,187
  75,395
  81,861
  88,588
  95,582
  102,852
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
Cash from operations, $m
  247
  495
  843
  1,318
  1,947
  2,757
  3,774
  5,023
  6,524
  8,295
  10,349
  12,698
  15,345
  18,294
  21,542
  25,087
  28,923
  33,044
  37,444
  42,115
  47,052
  52,249
  57,703
  63,411
  69,373
  75,590
  82,063
  88,798
  95,801
  103,080
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -13
  -21
  -31
  -45
  -64
  -87
  -117
  -154
  -198
  -250
  -311
  -380
  -458
  -544
  -640
  -745
  -858
  -979
  -1,109
  -1,247
  -1,393
  -1,546
  -1,707
  -1,876
  -2,052
  -2,236
  -2,427
  -2,626
  -2,833
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -107
  -150
  -204
  -270
  -347
  -436
  -536
  -644
  -760
  -883
  -1,009
  -1,138
  -1,268
  -1,398
  -1,526
  -1,652
  -1,775
  -1,896
  -2,013
  -2,128
  -2,241
  -2,352
  -2,462
  -2,571
  -2,681
  -2,792
  -2,905
  -3,021
  -3,140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -120
  -171
  -235
  -315
  -411
  -523
  -653
  -798
  -958
  -1,133
  -1,320
  -1,518
  -1,726
  -1,942
  -2,166
  -2,397
  -2,633
  -2,875
  -3,122
  -3,375
  -3,634
  -3,898
  -4,169
  -4,447
  -4,733
  -5,028
  -5,332
  -5,647
  -5,973
Free cash flow, $m
  166
  374
  672
  1,083
  1,632
  2,346
  3,251
  4,370
  5,726
  7,336
  9,217
  11,378
  13,828
  16,568
  19,600
  22,921
  26,526
  30,411
  34,569
  38,992
  43,676
  48,615
  53,805
  59,242
  64,926
  70,856
  77,035
  83,466
  90,155
  97,107
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  172
  241
  328
  434
  558
  701
  860
  1,034
  1,221
  1,418
  1,621
  1,828
  2,036
  2,244
  2,450
  2,652
  2,850
  3,044
  3,233
  3,417
  3,598
  3,776
  3,953
  4,129
  4,305
  4,484
  4,665
  4,851
  5,041
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  118
  172
  241
  328
  434
  558
  701
  860
  1,034
  1,221
  1,418
  1,621
  1,828
  2,036
  2,244
  2,450
  2,652
  2,850
  3,044
  3,233
  3,417
  3,598
  3,776
  3,953
  4,129
  4,305
  4,484
  4,665
  4,851
  5,041
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  284
  546
  913
  1,411
  2,066
  2,904
  3,951
  5,230
  6,760
  8,558
  10,634
  12,999
  15,655
  18,605
  21,844
  25,371
  29,179
  33,262
  37,612
  42,225
  47,094
  52,213
  57,581
  63,195
  69,055
  75,162
  81,519
  88,131
  95,005
  102,149
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -172
  -250
  -351
  -478
  -632
  -813
  -1,021
  -1,253
  -1,507
  -1,779
  -2,065
  -2,361
  -2,663
  -2,967
  -3,270
  -3,570
  -3,865
  -4,153
  -4,435
  -4,710
  -4,979
  -5,242
  -5,502
  -5,759
  -6,016
  -6,273
  -6,533
  -6,797
  -7,067
  -7,345
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  112
  296
  562
  933
  1,434
  2,091
  2,930
  3,977
  5,253
  6,778
  8,569
  10,638
  12,992
  15,637
  18,574
  21,801
  25,314
  29,108
  33,178
  37,515
  42,115
  46,971
  52,079
  57,436
  63,039
  68,889
  74,986
  81,334
  87,938
  94,803
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  108
  271
  489
  768
  1,112
  1,518
  1,980
  2,486
  3,017
  3,554
  4,069
  4,539
  4,940
  5,250
  5,453
  5,540
  5,508
  5,361
  5,108
  4,767
  4,356
  3,897
  3,413
  2,925
  2,452
  2,010
  1,609
  1,258
  960
  714
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Altair Engineering Inc. is a United States-based software company. The Company is focused on developing engineering software and computing technologies. The Company’s products include HyperWorks, solidThinking, PBS Works, and Carriots. The Company offers a range of solutions such as product engineering, industrial design, and tailored solutions. The Company provides open CAE software solutions for modeling, visualization, optimization and process automation. Altair's grid computing software, PBS Pro, is a workload management solution for computing environments, LINUX clusters and desktop cycle harvesting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Altair Engineering Inc. (ALTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 223.3
Price to Sales 7.1
Price to Book -63.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 106.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 186.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -214.3%
Total Debt to Equity -242.9%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 22%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Return On Equity -26%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.6%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $494 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Altair Engineering Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Altair Engineering Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Altair Engineering Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Altair Engineering Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 22.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $300 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Altair Engineering Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Altair Engineering Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALTR are equal to 24.8%.

Life of production assets of 14.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Altair Engineering Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALTR is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $286.782 million for Altair Engineering Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.733 million for Altair Engineering Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Altair Engineering Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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