Intrinsic value of AMAG Pharmaceuticals - AMAG

Previous Close

$21.85

  Intrinsic Value

$21.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$21.85

 
Intrinsic value

$21.91

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMAG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  699
  794
  896
  1,003
  1,117
  1,236
  1,361
  1,491
  1,627
  1,769
  1,917
  2,071
  2,230
  2,396
  2,569
  2,748
  2,934
  3,128
  3,329
  3,539
  3,757
  3,985
  4,222
  4,469
  4,726
  4,995
  5,276
  5,569
  5,875
  6,196
Variable operating expenses, $m
  577
  637
  701
  769
  841
  916
  995
  1,078
  1,164
  1,254
  1,213
  1,310
  1,411
  1,516
  1,625
  1,739
  1,856
  1,979
  2,106
  2,239
  2,377
  2,521
  2,671
  2,827
  2,990
  3,160
  3,338
  3,523
  3,717
  3,920
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  577
  637
  701
  769
  841
  916
  995
  1,078
  1,164
  1,254
  1,213
  1,310
  1,411
  1,516
  1,625
  1,739
  1,856
  1,979
  2,106
  2,239
  2,377
  2,521
  2,671
  2,827
  2,990
  3,160
  3,338
  3,523
  3,717
  3,920
Operating income, $m
  122
  157
  195
  234
  276
  320
  365
  413
  463
  516
  704
  761
  819
  880
  944
  1,009
  1,078
  1,149
  1,223
  1,300
  1,380
  1,464
  1,551
  1,641
  1,736
  1,835
  1,938
  2,046
  2,158
  2,276
EBITDA, $m
  436
  495
  559
  626
  696
  771
  849
  930
  1,015
  1,103
  1,196
  1,291
  1,391
  1,494
  1,602
  1,714
  1,830
  1,951
  2,076
  2,207
  2,343
  2,485
  2,633
  2,787
  2,947
  3,115
  3,290
  3,473
  3,664
  3,864
Interest expense (income), $m
  62
  58
  70
  83
  97
  112
  128
  144
  161
  179
  198
  217
  238
  259
  281
  304
  327
  352
  377
  404
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  588
  624
  661
  699
  740
  782
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  87
  111
  137
  164
  192
  221
  252
  284
  318
  487
  523
  561
  600
  640
  682
  726
  771
  819
  868
  920
  973
  1,029
  1,087
  1,148
  1,211
  1,277
  1,346
  1,418
  1,494
Tax expense, $m
  17
  24
  30
  37
  44
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  345
  363
  383
  403
Net income, $m
  47
  64
  81
  100
  120
  140
  162
  184
  208
  232
  355
  382
  409
  438
  467
  498
  530
  563
  598
  634
  671
  710
  751
  793
  838
  884
  932
  983
  1,035
  1,091

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,062
  2,343
  2,643
  2,960
  3,294
  3,646
  4,014
  4,399
  4,801
  5,219
  5,655
  6,108
  6,579
  7,069
  7,577
  8,106
  8,656
  9,227
  9,821
  10,440
  11,083
  11,754
  12,453
  13,181
  13,941
  14,735
  15,563
  16,428
  17,332
  18,277
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,062
  2,343
  2,643
  2,960
  3,294
  3,646
  4,014
  4,399
  4,801
  5,219
  5,655
  6,108
  6,579
  7,069
  7,577
  8,106
  8,656
  9,227
  9,821
  10,440
  11,083
  11,754
  12,453
  13,181
  13,941
  14,735
  15,563
  16,428
  17,332
  18,277
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
  0.339
Average production assets, $m
  1,792
  2,036
  2,296
  2,572
  2,862
  3,168
  3,488
  3,822
  4,171
  4,535
  4,913
  5,307
  5,716
  6,142
  6,584
  7,043
  7,520
  8,017
  8,533
  9,071
  9,630
  10,213
  10,820
  11,453
  12,113
  12,802
  13,522
  14,273
  15,059
  15,880
Working capital, $m
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
Total debt, $m
  888
  1,054
  1,231
  1,418
  1,615
  1,822
  2,040
  2,267
  2,504
  2,751
  3,008
  3,275
  3,553
  3,842
  4,142
  4,454
  4,778
  5,115
  5,466
  5,831
  6,211
  6,606
  7,019
  7,449
  7,897
  8,365
  8,853
  9,364
  9,897
  10,455
Total liabilities, $m
  1,217
  1,383
  1,559
  1,746
  1,944
  2,151
  2,368
  2,595
  2,832
  3,079
  3,337
  3,604
  3,882
  4,171
  4,471
  4,783
  5,107
  5,444
  5,795
  6,159
  6,539
  6,935
  7,347
  7,777
  8,225
  8,693
  9,182
  9,692
  10,226
  10,783
Total equity, $m
  845
  961
  1,084
  1,214
  1,351
  1,495
  1,646
  1,804
  1,968
  2,140
  2,319
  2,504
  2,697
  2,898
  3,107
  3,323
  3,549
  3,783
  4,027
  4,280
  4,544
  4,819
  5,106
  5,404
  5,716
  6,041
  6,381
  6,735
  7,106
  7,493
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,062
  2,344
  2,643
  2,960
  3,295
  3,646
  4,014
  4,399
  4,800
  5,219
  5,656
  6,108
  6,579
  7,069
  7,578
  8,106
  8,656
  9,227
  9,822
  10,439
  11,083
  11,754
  12,453
  13,181
  13,941
  14,734
  15,563
  16,427
  17,332
  18,276
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.050
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  64
  81
  100
  120
  140
  162
  184
  208
  232
  355
  382
  409
  438
  467
  498
  530
  563
  598
  634
  671
  710
  751
  793
  838
  884
  932
  983
  1,035
  1,091
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  314
  338
  364
  392
  421
  451
  483
  517
  552
  588
  491
  531
  572
  614
  658
  704
  752
  802
  853
  907
  963
  1,021
  1,082
  1,145
  1,211
  1,280
  1,352
  1,427
  1,506
  1,588
Funds from operations, $m
  361
  402
  445
  492
  540
  591
  645
  701
  759
  820
  847
  912
  981
  1,052
  1,126
  1,202
  1,282
  1,365
  1,451
  1,541
  1,634
  1,732
  1,833
  1,939
  2,049
  2,164
  2,284
  2,410
  2,541
  2,679
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  357
  398
  441
  487
  535
  586
  639
  695
  753
  814
  840
  906
  974
  1,045
  1,118
  1,194
  1,274
  1,356
  1,442
  1,532
  1,625
  1,722
  1,823
  1,928
  2,038
  2,152
  2,272
  2,397
  2,528
  2,665
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -156
  -179
  -204
  -230
  -257
  -286
  -317
  -349
  -382
  -417
  -453
  -491
  -531
  -572
  -614
  -658
  -704
  -752
  -802
  -853
  -907
  -963
  -1,021
  -1,082
  -1,145
  -1,211
  -1,280
  -1,352
  -1,427
  -1,506
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -335
  -349
  -364
  -379
  -394
  -409
  -425
  -442
  -459
  -477
  -496
  -516
  -537
  -559
  -583
  -607
  -633
  -660
  -689
  -720
  -752
  -785
  -821
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -385
  -423
  -464
  -506
  -548
  -591
  -637
  -684
  -731
  -781
  -832
  -885
  -940
  -997
  -1,056
  -1,117
  -1,181
  -1,248
  -1,318
  -1,390
  -1,466
  -1,546
  -1,628
  -1,715
  -1,805
  -1,900
  -2,000
  -2,104
  -2,212
  -2,327
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -6
  3
  12
  22
  33
  8
  21
  34
  48
  62
  77
  92
  108
  124
  141
  158
  176
  194
  213
  232
  252
  272
  293
  315
  338
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  153
  166
  177
  187
  197
  207
  217
  227
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  489
  510
  533
  558
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  52
  41
  30
  18
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  213
  218
  218
  217
  215
  211
  217
  227
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  489
  510
  533
  558
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  185
  192
  195
  199
  202
  206
  220
  239
  259
  280
  265
  288
  312
  336
  362
  389
  416
  445
  475
  506
  538
  572
  606
  643
  681
  720
  761
  804
  848
  895
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -340
  -355
  -371
  -387
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
Cash available for distribution, $m
  130
  76
  72
  69
  65
  62
  69
  81
  94
  108
  87
  102
  119
  136
  153
  172
  191
  211
  231
  252
  274
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  421
  449
  478
  508
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  123
  68
  61
  54
  47
  41
  42
  45
  47
  48
  34
  35
  35
  34
  33
  30
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.2
  86.8
  83.1
  80.8
  79.6
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3
  79.3

AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company. The Company's segment is the manufacture, development and commercialization of products and services for use in treating various conditions, with a focus on maternal health, anemia management and cancer supportive care. Its offerings focus on maternal health, anemia management and cancer supportive care, including its product, Makena (hydroxyprogesterone caproate injection); services related to the collection, processing and storage of umbilical cord blood stem cell and cord tissue units operated through Cord Blood Registry (CBR); its product, Feraheme (ferumoxytol), for intravenous (IV) use, and MuGard Mucoadhesive Oral Wound Rinse. It is engaged in the development of Digoxin immune fab, a polyclonal antibody for the treatment of severe preeclampsia in pregnant women. Makena is a drug indicated to reduce the risk of preterm birth in women pregnant with a single baby having a history of singleton spontaneous preterm birth.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -375.2
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 400%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 28
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 103.4%
Total Debt to Equity 105.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity -0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.3%
EBITDA Margin 32.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Net Profit Margin -0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.1%
Effective Tax Rate 122.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 346.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMAG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMAG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $610 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AMAG Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AMAG Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMAG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for AMAG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AMAG Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AMAG Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMAG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMAG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.9% for AMAG Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AMAG Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMAG stock is equal to 3.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMAG are equal to 256.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AMAG Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMAG is equal to 4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $790 million for AMAG Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35 million for AMAG Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AMAG Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] GI Partners Buys Cord Blood Registry and Sperm and Egg Bank   [Jun-15-18 08:33AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMAG Pharmaceuticals: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 10:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Edited Transcript of AMAG presentation 8-Mar-17 3:25pm GMT   [Apr-10-18 03:17PM  Thomson Reuters StreetEvents]
▶ AMAG Pharmaceuticals tops Street 4Q forecasts   [11:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ These 2 Biotech Stocks Are Soaring. Can They Keep It Up?   [Feb-23-18 09:12AM  Motley Fool]
▶ This Biotech Stock Pops 30% On FDA Nod 'Slamming Door' On Woes   [Feb-15-18 04:31PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ AMAG Pharmaceuticals reports 3Q loss   [10:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMAG)?   [Sep-22-17 03:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ AMAG Pharmaceuticals reports 2Q loss   [01:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Could An FDA Delay Snag This Biotech's Pre-Term Birth Drug?   [Jun-26-17 04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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