Intrinsic value of Ambarella - AMBA

Previous Close

$37.98

  Intrinsic Value

$29.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$37.98

 
Intrinsic value

$29.31

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMBA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  301
  308
  316
  325
  334
  345
  357
  370
  383
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  968
Variable operating expenses, $m
  242
  248
  254
  261
  269
  278
  287
  297
  308
  319
  328
  341
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  697
  731
  767
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  242
  248
  254
  261
  269
  278
  287
  297
  308
  319
  328
  341
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  697
  731
  767
Operating income, $m
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
EBITDA, $m
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
Tax expense, $m
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  168
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  493
  516
  542
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  168
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  493
  516
  542
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.792
  1.791
  1.785
  1.786
  1.786
  1.788
  1.785
  1.787
  1.781
  1.785
  1.784
  1.788
  1.789
  1.786
  1.788
  1.786
  1.785
  1.788
  1.788
  1.788
  1.787
  1.790
  1.787
  1.789
  1.787
  1.788
  1.787
  1.785
  1.789
  1.786
Average production assets, $m
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
Working capital, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total debt, $m
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  95
  102
  110
  119
  127
  137
  147
Total liabilities, $m
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
Total equity, $m
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  287
  300
  315
  330
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  169
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  492
  516
  541
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
Cash available for distribution, $m
  426
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  409
  42
  41
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  32
  30
  27
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ambarella, Inc. offers semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD), video capture, sharing and display. The Company operates through the development and sale of low-power, high-definition video products segment. Its system-on-a-chip designs incorporate HD video processing, image processing, audio processing and system functions onto a single chip. In the camera market, its platform enables the creation of video content in wearable cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, professional and consumer Internet Protocol (IP), security cameras, telepresence cameras and unmanned aerial vehicles. In the infrastructure market, its solutions manage IP video traffic, broadcast encoding and transcoding, and IP video delivery applications. AmbaClear is its image signal processing architecture. AmbaCast is its HD video processing architecture. It offers the MotorVu 3D 360 degrees Surround View reference design for automotive original equipment manufacturer market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ambarella (AMBA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Return On Equity 14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Operating Margin 19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Net Profit Margin 18.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Effective Tax Rate 4.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMBA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMBA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $295 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ambarella. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Ambarella. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMBA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMBA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ambarella, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ambarella.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMBA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMBA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ambarella.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ambarella. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMBA stock is equal to 19.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMBA are equal to 14.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ambarella operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMBA is equal to 1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $482 million for Ambarella - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33 million for Ambarella is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ambarella at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Ambarellas Turnaround Still Seems a Far-Fetched Idea   [Jul-09-18 05:50PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ Bear Of The Day: Ambarella   [06:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Five Below 22% Up   [Jun-08-18 08:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Jun 7, 2018   [Jun-07-18 09:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Ambarella Inc. Stock Plunged Today   [02:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ambarella: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Dates to Circle in June   [Jun-04-18 01:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week   [Jun-02-18 09:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Ambarella vs. Intel   [May-21-18 08:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Force Protection Video Reports Record Sales   [May-02-18 09:52AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ambarella's Automotive Bet Can Transform Its Fortunes   [Apr-29-18 11:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Will Computer Vision Lift Ambarella Higher?   [Apr-23-18 04:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ambarella CFO George Laplante to Retire Later This Year   [Apr-18-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Ambarella Stock Jumped Today   [Apr-11-18 04:21PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ambarella to Webcast Analyst Day March 28   [Mar-21-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Better Buy: Ambarella vs. Himax Technologies   [Mar-17-18 10:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ S&P 500, Nasdaq Lead As This Tech Name Enters Profit-Taking Zone   [Mar-16-18 09:43AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Better Buy: Ambarella, Inc. vs. NVIDIA   [Mar-14-18 02:32PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Ambarella, Inc. vs. Advanced Micro Devices   [Mar-13-18 09:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Are These 3 Tech Stocks Wildly Overvalued?   [Mar-05-18 02:45PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Ambarella, Inc. Stock Soared Today   [Mar-02-18 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ambarella beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-01-18 06:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Splunk, Ambarella beat estimates   [04:00PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Ambarella, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Will VR Stocks Disrupt the Travel Industry?   [09:30AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Ambarella, Inc. Stock Lost 14.2% in January   [Feb-13-18 05:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Simple Reason Why I Won't Buy Ambarella, Inc. Stock   [Feb-10-18 10:43AM  Motley Fool]
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