Intrinsic value of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. - AMC

Previous Close

$9.46

  Intrinsic Value

$24.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+163%

Previous close

$9.46

 
Intrinsic value

$24.90

 
Up/down potential

+163%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,570
  5,698
  5,845
  6,009
  6,191
  6,391
  6,609
  6,845
  7,098
  7,371
  7,662
  7,973
  8,304
  8,656
  9,030
  9,425
  9,844
  10,287
  10,755
  11,249
  11,771
  12,321
  12,900
  13,511
  14,154
  14,832
  15,544
  16,294
  17,084
  17,914
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,181
  3,243
  3,313
  3,392
  3,479
  3,575
  3,679
  3,792
  3,913
  4,044
  3,669
  3,818
  3,977
  4,145
  4,324
  4,513
  4,714
  4,926
  5,150
  5,387
  5,637
  5,900
  6,177
  6,470
  6,778
  7,102
  7,444
  7,803
  8,181
  8,578
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,162
  2,209
  2,258
  2,307
  2,358
  2,410
  2,463
  2,517
  2,573
  2,629
  2,687
  2,746
  2,807
  2,868
  2,931
  2,996
  3,062
  3,129
  3,198
  3,268
  3,340
  3,414
  3,489
  3,566
  3,644
  3,724
  3,806
  3,890
  3,975
  4,063
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,343
  5,452
  5,571
  5,699
  5,837
  5,985
  6,142
  6,309
  6,486
  6,673
  6,356
  6,564
  6,784
  7,013
  7,255
  7,509
  7,776
  8,055
  8,348
  8,655
  8,977
  9,314
  9,666
  10,036
  10,422
  10,826
  11,250
  11,693
  12,156
  12,641
Operating income, $m
  227
  246
  274
  310
  354
  407
  467
  536
  613
  698
  1,306
  1,409
  1,521
  1,643
  1,774
  1,916
  2,068
  2,232
  2,407
  2,594
  2,794
  3,007
  3,234
  3,476
  3,732
  4,005
  4,295
  4,602
  4,927
  5,273
EBITDA, $m
  1,118
  1,146
  1,184
  1,231
  1,287
  1,353
  1,428
  1,513
  1,607
  1,711
  1,825
  1,949
  2,083
  2,229
  2,385
  2,554
  2,734
  2,928
  3,135
  3,355
  3,590
  3,841
  4,107
  4,390
  4,690
  5,009
  5,346
  5,704
  6,083
  6,485
Interest expense (income), $m
  105
  312
  321
  333
  345
  360
  376
  393
  412
  433
  455
  479
  505
  532
  561
  592
  624
  659
  696
  734
  775
  819
  864
  912
  963
  1,016
  1,073
  1,132
  1,194
  1,260
  1,329
Earnings before tax, $m
  -84
  -75
  -58
  -35
  -6
  31
  74
  123
  180
  243
  827
  904
  989
  1,082
  1,183
  1,292
  1,410
  1,536
  1,673
  1,819
  1,975
  2,143
  2,322
  2,513
  2,716
  2,932
  3,163
  3,407
  3,667
  3,943
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  20
  33
  48
  66
  223
  244
  267
  292
  319
  349
  381
  415
  452
  491
  533
  579
  627
  678
  733
  792
  854
  920
  990
  1,065
Net income, $m
  -84
  -75
  -58
  -35
  -6
  23
  54
  90
  131
  177
  604
  660
  722
  790
  863
  943
  1,029
  1,122
  1,221
  1,328
  1,442
  1,564
  1,695
  1,834
  1,983
  2,141
  2,309
  2,487
  2,677
  2,879

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,687
  9,910
  10,165
  10,451
  10,768
  11,115
  11,494
  11,904
  12,345
  12,819
  13,326
  13,866
  14,442
  15,054
  15,704
  16,392
  17,120
  17,891
  18,705
  19,564
  20,471
  21,427
  22,435
  23,497
  24,616
  25,794
  27,034
  28,338
  29,711
  31,154
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,687
  9,910
  10,165
  10,451
  10,768
  11,115
  11,494
  11,904
  12,345
  12,819
  13,326
  13,866
  14,442
  15,054
  15,704
  16,392
  17,120
  17,891
  18,705
  19,564
  20,471
  21,427
  22,435
  23,497
  24,616
  25,794
  27,034
  28,338
  29,711
  31,154
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
Average production assets, $m
  5,804
  5,938
  6,090
  6,262
  6,451
  6,660
  6,887
  7,132
  7,397
  7,680
  7,984
  8,308
  8,653
  9,020
  9,409
  9,821
  10,258
  10,719
  11,207
  11,722
  12,265
  12,838
  13,442
  14,079
  14,749
  15,454
  16,197
  16,979
  17,801
  18,666
Working capital, $m
  -802
  -821
  -842
  -865
  -892
  -920
  -952
  -986
  -1,022
  -1,061
  -1,103
  -1,148
  -1,196
  -1,246
  -1,300
  -1,357
  -1,418
  -1,481
  -1,549
  -1,620
  -1,695
  -1,774
  -1,858
  -1,946
  -2,038
  -2,136
  -2,238
  -2,346
  -2,460
  -2,580
Total debt, $m
  5,448
  5,638
  5,856
  6,100
  6,370
  6,666
  6,989
  7,339
  7,715
  8,119
  8,552
  9,013
  9,504
  10,026
  10,580
  11,167
  11,789
  12,446
  13,140
  13,873
  14,647
  15,462
  16,322
  17,228
  18,183
  19,187
  20,245
  21,357
  22,528
  23,759
Total liabilities, $m
  8,263
  8,453
  8,671
  8,915
  9,185
  9,481
  9,804
  10,154
  10,530
  10,934
  11,367
  11,828
  12,319
  12,841
  13,395
  13,982
  14,604
  15,261
  15,955
  16,688
  17,462
  18,277
  19,137
  20,043
  20,998
  22,002
  23,060
  24,172
  25,343
  26,574
Total equity, $m
  1,424
  1,457
  1,494
  1,536
  1,583
  1,634
  1,690
  1,750
  1,815
  1,884
  1,959
  2,038
  2,123
  2,213
  2,308
  2,410
  2,517
  2,630
  2,750
  2,876
  3,009
  3,150
  3,298
  3,454
  3,619
  3,792
  3,974
  4,166
  4,367
  4,580
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,687
  9,910
  10,165
  10,451
  10,768
  11,115
  11,494
  11,904
  12,345
  12,818
  13,326
  13,866
  14,442
  15,054
  15,703
  16,392
  17,121
  17,891
  18,705
  19,564
  20,471
  21,427
  22,435
  23,497
  24,617
  25,794
  27,034
  28,338
  29,710
  31,154
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.830
  3.870
  3.920
  3.970
  4.020
  4.080
  4.140
  4.190
  4.250
  4.310
  4.370
  4.420
  4.480
  4.530
  4.580
  4.630
  4.680
  4.730
  4.780
  4.820
  4.870
  4.910
  4.950
  4.990
  5.020
  5.060
  5.090
  5.130
  5.160
  5.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -84
  -75
  -58
  -35
  -6
  23
  54
  90
  131
  177
  604
  660
  722
  790
  863
  943
  1,029
  1,122
  1,221
  1,328
  1,442
  1,564
  1,695
  1,834
  1,983
  2,141
  2,309
  2,487
  2,677
  2,879
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  891
  900
  910
  921
  933
  947
  961
  977
  994
  1,013
  518
  539
  562
  586
  611
  638
  666
  696
  728
  761
  796
  834
  873
  914
  958
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,156
  1,212
Funds from operations, $m
  807
  825
  851
  885
  928
  969
  1,015
  1,067
  1,125
  1,190
  1,122
  1,200
  1,284
  1,376
  1,474
  1,581
  1,695
  1,818
  1,949
  2,089
  2,239
  2,398
  2,568
  2,748
  2,940
  3,144
  3,360
  3,590
  3,833
  4,091
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
Cash from operations, $m
  822
  843
  872
  909
  954
  998
  1,046
  1,101
  1,162
  1,229
  1,164
  1,245
  1,332
  1,426
  1,528
  1,638
  1,755
  1,881
  2,016
  2,160
  2,314
  2,477
  2,651
  2,836
  3,033
  3,242
  3,463
  3,698
  3,947
  4,210
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -370
  -377
  -386
  -395
  -407
  -419
  -432
  -447
  -463
  -480
  -499
  -518
  -539
  -562
  -586
  -611
  -638
  -666
  -696
  -728
  -761
  -796
  -834
  -873
  -914
  -958
  -1,004
  -1,052
  -1,103
  -1,156
New CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -133
  -153
  -171
  -190
  -208
  -227
  -246
  -264
  -284
  -304
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -462
  -488
  -515
  -543
  -573
  -604
  -636
  -670
  -706
  -743
  -782
  -822
  -865
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -483
  -510
  -539
  -566
  -597
  -627
  -659
  -693
  -727
  -764
  -803
  -842
  -884
  -929
  -975
  -1,023
  -1,074
  -1,128
  -1,184
  -1,243
  -1,304
  -1,369
  -1,438
  -1,509
  -1,584
  -1,664
  -1,747
  -1,834
  -1,925
  -2,021
Free cash flow, $m
  340
  333
  334
  342
  357
  371
  387
  408
  434
  465
  362
  402
  447
  498
  553
  614
  681
  754
  832
  917
  1,009
  1,108
  1,214
  1,327
  1,448
  1,578
  1,717
  1,865
  2,022
  2,189
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  165
  190
  217
  244
  270
  297
  323
  350
  377
  404
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  587
  621
  657
  694
  733
  774
  816
  860
  906
  954
  1,005
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  111
  108
  96
  77
  52
  29
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  276
  298
  313
  321
  322
  326
  325
  350
  377
  404
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  587
  621
  657
  694
  733
  774
  816
  860
  906
  954
  1,005
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  616
  631
  647
  664
  680
  696
  712
  758
  811
  869
  794
  863
  939
  1,020
  1,107
  1,201
  1,303
  1,411
  1,527
  1,651
  1,783
  1,923
  2,073
  2,233
  2,403
  2,583
  2,774
  2,977
  3,193
  3,421
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -111
  -108
  -96
  -77
  -52
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -212
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  505
  523
  551
  586
  628
  645
  656
  698
  746
  800
  720
  784
  854
  930
  1,012
  1,100
  1,195
  1,298
  1,407
  1,524
  1,649
  1,783
  1,925
  2,077
  2,238
  2,410
  2,592
  2,786
  2,991
  3,209
Discount rate, %
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.06
  17.92
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.78
  22.87
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.80
  29.19
  30.65
  32.18
  33.79
  35.48
  37.25
  39.11
  41.07
  43.12
  45.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  455
  420
  391
  363
  335
  293
  251
  221
  192
  165
  117
  99
  82
  66
  53
  41
  31
  23
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  89.9
  81.2
  74.2
  69.2
  66.0
  64.3
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2
  64.2

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, including AMC Entertainment Inc. (AMCE), American Multi-Cinema, Inc. (OpCo) and its subsidiaries, is engaged in the theatrical exhibition business. It operates through theatrical exhibition operations segment. It licenses first-run motion pictures from distributors owned by film production companies and from independent distributors. The Company also offers a range of food and beverage items, which include popcorn; soft drinks; candy; hot dogs; specialty drinks, including beers, wine and mixed drinks, and made to order hot foods, including menu choices, such as curly fries, chicken tenders and mozzarella sticks. It operates over 900 theatres with approximately 10,000 screens globally, including over 661 theatres with approximately 8,200 screens in the United States and over 244 theatres with approximately 2,200 screens in Europe. The Company’s subsidiary also includes Carmike Cinemas, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.3
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 104.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 227.3%
Total Debt to Equity 231.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Operating Margin 6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 25.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Payout Ratio 71.4%

AMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5461 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11%, whose default value for AMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2115 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMC are equal to 104.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMC is equal to -14.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1397.6 million for AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.138 million for AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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