Intrinsic value of AirMedia Group Inc - AMCN

Previous Close

$0.47

  Intrinsic Value

$0.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+12%

Previous close

$0.47

 
Intrinsic value

$0.53

 
Up/down potential

+12%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.90
  40.01
  36.51
  33.36
  30.52
  27.97
  25.67
  23.61
  21.75
  20.07
  18.56
  17.21
  15.99
  14.89
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
Revenue, $m
  35
  48
  66
  88
  115
  147
  185
  228
  278
  334
  396
  464
  538
  618
  704
  796
  893
  996
  1,103
  1,217
  1,335
  1,458
  1,587
  1,721
  1,861
  2,006
  2,157
  2,313
  2,476
  2,645
Variable operating expenses, $m
  222
  311
  424
  564
  736
  942
  1,183
  1,462
  1,780
  2,137
  2,532
  2,967
  3,442
  3,954
  4,504
  5,089
  5,711
  6,367
  7,057
  7,781
  8,538
  9,328
  10,152
  11,009
  11,901
  12,829
  13,792
  14,794
  15,835
  16,917
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  222
  311
  424
  564
  736
  942
  1,183
  1,462
  1,780
  2,137
  2,532
  2,967
  3,442
  3,954
  4,504
  5,089
  5,711
  6,367
  7,057
  7,781
  8,538
  9,328
  10,152
  11,009
  11,901
  12,829
  13,792
  14,794
  15,835
  16,917
Operating income, $m
  -188
  -262
  -358
  -476
  -621
  -795
  -998
  -1,234
  -1,502
  -1,803
  -2,136
  -2,503
  -2,903
  -3,336
  -3,799
  -4,294
  -4,818
  -5,371
  -5,953
  -6,564
  -7,203
  -7,869
  -8,564
  -9,288
  -10,040
  -10,823
  -11,636
  -12,481
  -13,359
  -14,272
EBITDA, $m
  -175
  -245
  -335
  -447
  -583
  -746
  -937
  -1,159
  -1,411
  -1,694
  -2,008
  -2,354
  -2,730
  -3,137
  -3,573
  -4,037
  -4,530
  -5,051
  -5,598
  -6,172
  -6,773
  -7,400
  -8,053
  -8,733
  -9,441
  -10,177
  -10,941
  -11,736
  -12,562
  -13,420
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  7
  11
  16
  21
  28
  35
  44
  54
  65
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  151
  169
  187
  207
  228
  249
  271
  295
  319
  344
  370
  397
  426
Earnings before tax, $m
  -188
  -264
  -362
  -484
  -633
  -811
  -1,020
  -1,262
  -1,537
  -1,847
  -2,190
  -2,568
  -2,980
  -3,425
  -3,903
  -4,412
  -4,952
  -5,522
  -6,122
  -6,751
  -7,410
  -8,097
  -8,813
  -9,559
  -10,335
  -11,142
  -11,980
  -12,851
  -13,756
  -14,697
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -188
  -264
  -362
  -484
  -633
  -811
  -1,020
  -1,262
  -1,537
  -1,847
  -2,190
  -2,568
  -2,980
  -3,425
  -3,903
  -4,412
  -4,952
  -5,522
  -6,122
  -6,751
  -7,410
  -8,097
  -8,813
  -9,559
  -10,335
  -11,142
  -11,980
  -12,851
  -13,756
  -14,697

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  323
  452
  617
  823
  1,074
  1,374
  1,727
  2,135
  2,599
  3,120
  3,699
  4,336
  5,029
  5,778
  6,581
  7,437
  8,345
  9,304
  10,312
  11,370
  12,476
  13,631
  14,834
  16,088
  17,391
  18,746
  20,155
  21,619
  23,140
  24,721
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  323
  452
  617
  823
  1,074
  1,374
  1,727
  2,135
  2,599
  3,120
  3,699
  4,336
  5,029
  5,778
  6,581
  7,437
  8,345
  9,304
  10,312
  11,370
  12,476
  13,631
  14,834
  16,088
  17,391
  18,746
  20,155
  21,619
  23,140
  24,721
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.106
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
  0.107
Average production assets, $m
  56
  78
  106
  142
  185
  237
  297
  368
  448
  538
  637
  747
  866
  995
  1,134
  1,281
  1,438
  1,603
  1,776
  1,959
  2,149
  2,348
  2,556
  2,771
  2,996
  3,229
  3,472
  3,724
  3,986
  4,259
Working capital, $m
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  33
  41
  50
  60
  71
  84
  97
  111
  127
  143
  161
  179
  199
  219
  240
  263
  286
  310
  335
  361
  388
  416
  446
  476
Total debt, $m
  34
  78
  135
  206
  292
  395
  517
  657
  817
  996
  1,195
  1,414
  1,653
  1,910
  2,187
  2,481
  2,793
  3,123
  3,470
  3,834
  4,214
  4,612
  5,026
  5,457
  5,905
  6,371
  6,856
  7,359
  7,883
  8,427
Total liabilities, $m
  111
  155
  212
  283
  369
  473
  594
  734
  894
  1,073
  1,273
  1,492
  1,730
  1,988
  2,264
  2,558
  2,871
  3,201
  3,547
  3,911
  4,292
  4,689
  5,103
  5,534
  5,983
  6,449
  6,933
  7,437
  7,960
  8,504
Total equity, $m
  212
  296
  405
  540
  704
  901
  1,133
  1,400
  1,705
  2,047
  2,427
  2,844
  3,299
  3,790
  4,317
  4,879
  5,474
  6,103
  6,765
  7,459
  8,184
  8,942
  9,731
  10,554
  11,409
  12,298
  13,222
  14,182
  15,180
  16,217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  323
  451
  617
  823
  1,073
  1,374
  1,727
  2,134
  2,599
  3,120
  3,700
  4,336
  5,029
  5,778
  6,581
  7,437
  8,345
  9,304
  10,312
  11,370
  12,476
  13,631
  14,834
  16,088
  17,392
  18,747
  20,155
  21,619
  23,140
  24,721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.260
  0.330
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -188
  -264
  -362
  -484
  -633
  -811
  -1,020
  -1,262
  -1,537
  -1,847
  -2,190
  -2,568
  -2,980
  -3,425
  -3,903
  -4,412
  -4,952
  -5,522
  -6,122
  -6,751
  -7,410
  -8,097
  -8,813
  -9,559
  -10,335
  -11,142
  -11,980
  -12,851
  -13,756
  -14,697
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  17
  23
  30
  38
  49
  61
  75
  91
  109
  127
  149
  173
  199
  227
  256
  288
  321
  355
  392
  430
  470
  511
  554
  599
  646
  694
  745
  797
  852
Funds from operations, $m
  -175
  -247
  -339
  -454
  -594
  -762
  -959
  -1,187
  -1,446
  -1,738
  -2,062
  -2,418
  -2,807
  -3,226
  -3,676
  -4,155
  -4,664
  -5,202
  -5,767
  -6,360
  -6,980
  -7,627
  -8,302
  -9,005
  -9,736
  -10,496
  -11,285
  -12,106
  -12,959
  -13,846
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  -177
  -250
  -342
  -458
  -599
  -768
  -966
  -1,195
  -1,455
  -1,748
  -2,073
  -2,431
  -2,820
  -3,240
  -3,691
  -4,172
  -4,682
  -5,220
  -5,786
  -6,380
  -7,001
  -7,649
  -8,325
  -9,029
  -9,761
  -10,522
  -11,313
  -12,134
  -12,988
  -13,876
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -74
  -90
  -108
  -127
  -149
  -173
  -199
  -227
  -256
  -288
  -321
  -355
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -511
  -554
  -599
  -646
  -694
  -745
  -797
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -233
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -33
  -44
  -56
  -71
  -89
  -108
  -129
  -154
  -180
  -208
  -237
  -268
  -302
  -337
  -374
  -412
  -453
  -495
  -537
  -583
  -629
  -677
  -727
  -779
  -832
  -889
  -946
  -1,007
  -1,069
Free cash flow, $m
  -202
  -283
  -386
  -515
  -670
  -856
  -1,074
  -1,324
  -1,609
  -1,927
  -2,281
  -2,668
  -3,089
  -3,543
  -4,029
  -4,546
  -5,094
  -5,673
  -6,281
  -6,917
  -7,583
  -8,278
  -9,002
  -9,756
  -10,540
  -11,354
  -12,201
  -13,081
  -13,995
  -14,946
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  44
  57
  71
  86
  103
  121
  140
  160
  179
  199
  219
  238
  258
  276
  295
  312
  330
  347
  364
  381
  397
  414
  431
  448
  466
  485
  503
  523
  544
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  252
  349
  470
  619
  797
  1,008
  1,251
  1,529
  1,842
  2,189
  2,570
  2,985
  3,435
  3,916
  4,429
  4,973
  5,547
  6,151
  6,784
  7,445
  8,135
  8,854
  9,603
  10,381
  11,190
  12,031
  12,904
  13,811
  14,754
  15,734
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  286
  393
  527
  690
  883
  1,111
  1,372
  1,669
  2,002
  2,368
  2,769
  3,204
  3,673
  4,174
  4,705
  5,268
  5,859
  6,481
  7,131
  7,809
  8,516
  9,251
  10,017
  10,812
  11,638
  12,497
  13,389
  14,314
  15,277
  16,278
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  84
  110
  141
  175
  213
  255
  299
  345
  393
  441
  488
  537
  584
  631
  677
  722
  765
  808
  850
  891
  932
  973
  1,015
  1,056
  1,099
  1,142
  1,187
  1,234
  1,282
  1,333
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -252
  -349
  -470
  -619
  -797
  -1,008
  -1,251
  -1,529
  -1,842
  -2,189
  -2,570
  -2,985
  -3,435
  -3,916
  -4,429
  -4,973
  -5,547
  -6,151
  -6,784
  -7,445
  -8,135
  -8,854
  -9,603
  -10,381
  -11,190
  -12,031
  -12,904
  -13,811
  -14,754
  -15,734
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -168
  -239
  -330
  -444
  -584
  -753
  -952
  -1,184
  -1,449
  -1,748
  -2,081
  -2,449
  -2,850
  -3,285
  -3,752
  -4,252
  -4,782
  -5,343
  -5,934
  -6,554
  -7,203
  -7,881
  -8,588
  -9,325
  -10,091
  -10,888
  -11,717
  -12,577
  -13,472
  -14,402
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -161
  -218
  -287
  -365
  -453
  -546
  -643
  -740
  -832
  -916
  -988
  -1,045
  -1,084
  -1,103
  -1,102
  -1,080
  -1,041
  -984
  -914
  -833
  -745
  -654
  -563
  -475
  -393
  -318
  -251
  -195
  -147
  -108
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  29.1
  8.7
  2.7
  0.8
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

AirMedia Group Inc. is an operator of out-of-home advertising platforms in China. The Company is engaged in selling advertising time slots on its network, primarily air travel advertising network. It holds concession rights to install and operate wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) systems on trains administered by over eight regional railway administrative bureaus in China. It also holds concession rights to install and operate Wi-Fi systems on various long-haul buses in China. It operates approximately 71,900 digital television screens on airplanes operated by over five airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Shanghai Airlines and Xiamen Airlines. It also holds concession rights to operate the advertising media platforms at Sinopec gas stations across China. It provides in-flight advertising and non-advertising contents. It offers advertising services from the platforms, digital television screens on airplanes and gas station media displays.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AirMedia Group Inc (AMCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -66%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 120%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital -20.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity -20.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -194.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -100.5%
EBITDA Margin -423.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -207.4%
Operating Margin -523.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -249.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -500%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -239.6%
Net Profit Margin -388.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41%
Effective Tax Rate -4.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $24 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AirMedia Group Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of AirMedia Group Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AirMedia Group Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AirMedia Group Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 645.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AirMedia Group Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AirMedia Group Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMCN are equal to 161%.

Life of production assets of 3.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AirMedia Group Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMCN is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $147.649 million for AirMedia Group Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.810 million for AirMedia Group Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AirMedia Group Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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