Intrinsic value of Amedica - AMDA

Previous Close

$0.37

  Intrinsic Value

$0.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

+67%

Previous close

$0.37

 
Intrinsic value

$0.05

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+67%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -17.39
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  29
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
EBITDA, $m
  -7
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -24
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  36
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.760
  0.731
  0.769
  0.741
  0.750
  0.786
  0.759
  0.767
  0.774
  0.781
  0.765
  0.771
  0.757
  0.763
  0.750
  0.756
  0.767
  0.756
  0.766
  0.755
  0.765
  0.759
  0.768
  0.763
  0.758
  0.754
  0.765
  0.761
  0.760
  0.756
  0.756
Average production assets, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Working capital, $m
  4
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Total debt, $m
  16
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total equity, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  36
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.143
  0.370
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.120
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  38.8
  15.0
  5.8
  2.2
  0.9
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Amedica Corporation is a commercial biomaterial company. The Company is a vertically integrated silicon nitride orthopedic medical device manufacturer. It is focused on using its silicon nitride ceramic technology platform to develop, manufacture and sell a range of medical devices. It is also engaged in developing wear- and corrosion-resistant implant components for hip and knee arthroplasty. The Company markets its Valeo family of silicon nitride interbody spinal fusion devices in the United States, Europe and Brazil for use in the cervical and thoracolumbar areas of the spine. In addition to its silicon nitride-based spinal fusion products, it markets a line of non-silicon nitride spinal surgery products, which allows the Company to provide surgeons and hospitals with a solution for spinal procedures. Its Valeo interbody spinal fusion devices include Anterior Lumbar, Posterior Lumbar, Oblique Lumbar, Transforaminal Lumbar, Lateral Lumbar, Cervical and Corpectomy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amedica (AMDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 114.3%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -52.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.6%
Return On Total Capital -81.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.6%
Return On Equity -228.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -263.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.3%
EBITDA Margin -100%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80%
Operating Margin -52.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -126.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.1%
Net Profit Margin -126.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amedica. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Amedica. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for AMDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amedica, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amedica.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 210.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.5% for Amedica.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amedica. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMDA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMDA are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amedica operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMDA is equal to 47.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14 million for Amedica - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38 million for Amedica is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amedica at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amedica Receives Positive Nasdaq Listing Decision   [Oct-17-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Amedica a Value Proposition at These Levels?   [Jun-22-17 09:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amedica Corp. : December 8, 2016   [Dec-08-16 02:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 4 Companies That Destroyed Shareholders Last Week   [Nov-26-16 10:00AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Amedica Provides Business Update   [Oct-06-16 09:21AM  Marketwired]
▶ Amedica Announces Workforce Reduction   [09:15AM  Marketwired]
▶ 5 Nasdaq Stocks Crashing to 52-Week Lows This Week   [Jul-20-16 02:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 Companies That Destroyed Shareholders This Past Week   [Jul-10-16 10:10AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Amedica Enters Debt Exchange Agreement   [09:15AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of AMDA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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