Intrinsic value of American Midstream Partners, LP - AMID

Previous Close

$5.14

  Intrinsic Value

$0.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$5.14

 
Intrinsic value

$0.24

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMID stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.70
  22.73
  20.96
  19.36
  17.93
  16.63
  15.47
  14.42
  13.48
  12.63
  11.87
  11.18
  10.56
  10.01
  9.51
  9.06
  8.65
  8.29
  7.96
  7.66
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
Revenue, $m
  812
  996
  1,205
  1,438
  1,696
  1,978
  2,284
  2,614
  2,966
  3,341
  3,738
  4,156
  4,594
  5,054
  5,535
  6,036
  6,558
  7,102
  7,667
  8,254
  8,864
  9,499
  10,158
  10,843
  11,556
  12,297
  13,068
  13,871
  14,708
  15,580
Variable operating expenses, $m
  888
  1,083
  1,303
  1,550
  1,822
  2,120
  2,444
  2,792
  3,164
  3,560
  3,949
  4,390
  4,854
  5,340
  5,847
  6,377
  6,928
  7,502
  8,099
  8,720
  9,365
  10,035
  10,731
  11,455
  12,208
  12,991
  13,806
  14,654
  15,538
  16,459
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  888
  1,083
  1,303
  1,550
  1,822
  2,120
  2,444
  2,792
  3,164
  3,560
  3,949
  4,390
  4,854
  5,340
  5,847
  6,377
  6,928
  7,502
  8,099
  8,720
  9,365
  10,035
  10,731
  11,455
  12,208
  12,991
  13,806
  14,654
  15,538
  16,459
Operating income, $m
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -112
  -126
  -142
  -159
  -178
  -198
  -219
  -211
  -235
  -259
  -285
  -312
  -341
  -370
  -401
  -433
  -466
  -500
  -536
  -573
  -612
  -652
  -694
  -738
  -783
  -830
  -880
EBITDA, $m
  78
  95
  115
  138
  162
  189
  219
  250
  284
  320
  358
  398
  440
  484
  530
  578
  628
  680
  734
  790
  849
  909
  973
  1,038
  1,106
  1,177
  1,251
  1,328
  1,408
  1,492
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  65
  86
  110
  138
  168
  202
  238
  278
  321
  367
  416
  468
  522
  579
  639
  702
  767
  835
  906
  980
  1,057
  1,136
  1,219
  1,305
  1,394
  1,487
  1,584
  1,684
  1,789
  1,898
Earnings before tax, $m
  -141
  -173
  -209
  -249
  -294
  -344
  -398
  -456
  -519
  -586
  -627
  -702
  -782
  -865
  -952
  -1,043
  -1,138
  -1,236
  -1,339
  -1,446
  -1,557
  -1,672
  -1,792
  -1,917
  -2,046
  -2,181
  -2,321
  -2,467
  -2,619
  -2,777
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -141
  -173
  -209
  -249
  -294
  -344
  -398
  -456
  -519
  -586
  -627
  -702
  -782
  -865
  -952
  -1,043
  -1,138
  -1,236
  -1,339
  -1,446
  -1,557
  -1,672
  -1,792
  -1,917
  -2,046
  -2,181
  -2,321
  -2,467
  -2,619
  -2,777

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,402
  2,948
  3,565
  4,256
  5,019
  5,853
  6,759
  7,734
  8,776
  9,885
  11,058
  12,294
  13,593
  14,954
  16,375
  17,858
  19,403
  21,010
  22,682
  24,420
  26,226
  28,102
  30,053
  32,080
  34,188
  36,381
  38,663
  41,039
  43,514
  46,094
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,402
  2,948
  3,565
  4,256
  5,019
  5,853
  6,759
  7,734
  8,776
  9,885
  11,058
  12,294
  13,593
  14,954
  16,375
  17,858
  19,403
  21,010
  22,682
  24,420
  26,226
  28,102
  30,053
  32,080
  34,188
  36,381
  38,663
  41,039
  43,514
  46,094
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
Average production assets, $m
  1,569
  1,926
  2,329
  2,781
  3,279
  3,824
  4,416
  5,053
  5,734
  6,458
  7,225
  8,033
  8,881
  9,770
  10,699
  11,668
  12,677
  13,727
  14,820
  15,955
  17,135
  18,361
  19,635
  20,960
  22,337
  23,770
  25,261
  26,813
  28,430
  30,116
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
Total debt, $m
  1,599
  2,044
  2,548
  3,112
  3,734
  4,415
  5,154
  5,950
  6,800
  7,705
  8,662
  9,671
  10,731
  11,841
  13,001
  14,211
  15,472
  16,784
  18,148
  19,566
  21,039
  22,571
  24,162
  25,816
  27,537
  29,326
  31,188
  33,127
  35,147
  37,252
Total liabilities, $m
  1,960
  2,405
  2,909
  3,473
  4,095
  4,776
  5,515
  6,311
  7,161
  8,066
  9,023
  10,032
  11,092
  12,202
  13,362
  14,572
  15,833
  17,145
  18,509
  19,927
  21,400
  22,932
  24,523
  26,177
  27,898
  29,687
  31,549
  33,488
  35,508
  37,613
Total equity, $m
  442
  542
  656
  783
  923
  1,077
  1,244
  1,423
  1,615
  1,819
  2,035
  2,262
  2,501
  2,751
  3,013
  3,286
  3,570
  3,866
  4,174
  4,493
  4,826
  5,171
  5,530
  5,903
  6,291
  6,694
  7,114
  7,551
  8,007
  8,481
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,402
  2,947
  3,565
  4,256
  5,018
  5,853
  6,759
  7,734
  8,776
  9,885
  11,058
  12,294
  13,593
  14,953
  16,375
  17,858
  19,403
  21,011
  22,683
  24,420
  26,226
  28,103
  30,053
  32,080
  34,189
  36,381
  38,663
  41,039
  43,515
  46,094
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.620
  3.770
  3.880
  3.970
  4.040
  4.100
  4.140
  4.180
  4.210
  4.240
  4.260
  4.280
  4.290
  4.300
  4.310
  4.320
  4.330
  4.340
  4.350
  4.350
  4.360
  4.360
  4.370
  4.370
  4.380
  4.380
  4.380
  4.390
  4.390
  4.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -141
  -173
  -209
  -249
  -294
  -344
  -398
  -456
  -519
  -586
  -627
  -702
  -782
  -865
  -952
  -1,043
  -1,138
  -1,236
  -1,339
  -1,446
  -1,557
  -1,672
  -1,792
  -1,917
  -2,046
  -2,181
  -2,321
  -2,467
  -2,619
  -2,777
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  154
  182
  214
  249
  288
  331
  378
  428
  482
  539
  569
  632
  699
  769
  842
  919
  998
  1,081
  1,167
  1,256
  1,349
  1,446
  1,546
  1,650
  1,759
  1,872
  1,989
  2,111
  2,239
  2,371
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  9
  5
  0
  -6
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -82
  -96
  -109
  -124
  -139
  -156
  -172
  -190
  -208
  -227
  -246
  -267
  -288
  -310
  -332
  -356
  -381
  -406
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  11
  7
  2
  -4
  -10
  -17
  -25
  -34
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -79
  -92
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -151
  -168
  -185
  -203
  -222
  -241
  -261
  -282
  -304
  -326
  -350
  -374
  -399
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -124
  -152
  -183
  -219
  -258
  -301
  -348
  -398
  -451
  -509
  -569
  -632
  -699
  -769
  -842
  -919
  -998
  -1,081
  -1,167
  -1,256
  -1,349
  -1,446
  -1,546
  -1,650
  -1,759
  -1,872
  -1,989
  -2,111
  -2,239
New CAPEX, $m
  -311
  -357
  -404
  -451
  -498
  -545
  -592
  -637
  -681
  -724
  -767
  -808
  -849
  -889
  -929
  -969
  -1,009
  -1,050
  -1,092
  -1,135
  -1,180
  -1,226
  -1,274
  -1,325
  -1,377
  -1,433
  -1,491
  -1,552
  -1,617
  -1,685
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -410
  -481
  -556
  -634
  -717
  -803
  -893
  -985
  -1,079
  -1,175
  -1,276
  -1,377
  -1,481
  -1,588
  -1,698
  -1,811
  -1,928
  -2,048
  -2,173
  -2,302
  -2,436
  -2,575
  -2,720
  -2,871
  -3,027
  -3,192
  -3,363
  -3,541
  -3,728
  -3,924
Free cash flow, $m
  -396
  -470
  -549
  -632
  -721
  -814
  -910
  -1,010
  -1,113
  -1,220
  -1,330
  -1,443
  -1,560
  -1,680
  -1,804
  -1,931
  -2,063
  -2,200
  -2,341
  -2,487
  -2,639
  -2,797
  -2,961
  -3,132
  -3,310
  -3,495
  -3,689
  -3,891
  -4,102
  -4,323
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  390
  445
  504
  563
  622
  681
  739
  795
  851
  905
  957
  1,009
  1,060
  1,110
  1,160
  1,210
  1,261
  1,312
  1,364
  1,418
  1,474
  1,531
  1,591
  1,654
  1,720
  1,789
  1,862
  1,939
  2,020
  2,105
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  230
  273
  322
  376
  434
  497
  564
  636
  711
  790
  843
  930
  1,021
  1,115
  1,213
  1,316
  1,422
  1,532
  1,647
  1,766
  1,889
  2,018
  2,151
  2,290
  2,434
  2,585
  2,741
  2,904
  3,075
  3,252
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  620
  718
  826
  939
  1,056
  1,178
  1,303
  1,431
  1,562
  1,695
  1,800
  1,939
  2,081
  2,225
  2,373
  2,526
  2,683
  2,844
  3,011
  3,184
  3,363
  3,549
  3,742
  3,944
  4,154
  4,374
  4,603
  4,843
  5,095
  5,357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  224
  249
  278
  307
  336
  365
  393
  421
  448
  475
  470
  496
  521
  545
  570
  594
  619
  644
  670
  696
  724
  752
  782
  813
  845
  879
  915
  952
  992
  1,034
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -230
  -273
  -322
  -376
  -434
  -497
  -564
  -636
  -711
  -790
  -843
  -930
  -1,021
  -1,115
  -1,213
  -1,316
  -1,422
  -1,532
  -1,647
  -1,766
  -1,889
  -2,018
  -2,151
  -2,290
  -2,434
  -2,585
  -2,741
  -2,904
  -3,075
  -3,252
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -6
  -24
  -45
  -69
  -98
  -132
  -171
  -215
  -263
  -315
  -373
  -434
  -500
  -570
  -644
  -721
  -803
  -888
  -977
  -1,069
  -1,165
  -1,266
  -1,369
  -1,477
  -1,589
  -1,706
  -1,827
  -1,952
  -2,083
  -2,218
Discount rate, %
  12.30
  12.92
  13.56
  14.24
  14.95
  15.70
  16.48
  17.31
  18.17
  19.08
  20.04
  21.04
  22.09
  23.19
  24.35
  25.57
  26.85
  28.19
  29.60
  31.08
  32.64
  34.27
  35.98
  37.78
  39.67
  41.65
  43.73
  45.92
  48.22
  50.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -5
  -19
  -30
  -41
  -49
  -55
  -59
  -60
  -58
  -55
  -50
  -44
  -37
  -31
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  54.6
  30.5
  17.3
  10.0
  5.9
  3.5
  2.1
  1.3
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

American Midstream Partners, LP owns, operates, develops and acquires a portfolio of midstream energy assets. The Company provides midstream infrastructure that links producers of natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), condensate and specialty chemicals to numerous intermediate and end-use markets. Its segments include gathering and processing, transmission and terminals. Through its segments, it is engaged in the business of gathering, treating, processing, and transporting natural gas; gathering, transporting, storing, treating and fractionating NGLs; gathering, storing and transporting crude oil and condensates, and storing specialty chemical products. Its gathering and processing assets are primarily located in the Permian Basin of West Texas; the Cotton Valley/Haynesville Shale of East Texas; the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas; the Bakken Shale of North Dakota, and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Midstream Partners, LP (AMID)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -89.1
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 137%
Total Debt to Equity 137.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.2%
Return On Equity -0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.3%
EBITDA Margin 27.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Operating Margin -9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Net Profit Margin -1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.4%
Payout Ratio -2133.3%

AMID stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMID stock intrinsic value calculation we used $651 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Midstream Partners, LP. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of American Midstream Partners, LP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMID stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.3%, whose default value for AMID is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Midstream Partners, LP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Midstream Partners, LP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMID stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMID stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Midstream Partners, LP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Midstream Partners, LP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMID stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMID are equal to 193.3%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Midstream Partners, LP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMID is equal to -0.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $353.479 million for American Midstream Partners, LP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.815 million for American Midstream Partners, LP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Midstream Partners, LP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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