Intrinsic value of Alliance MMA - AMMA

Previous Close

$0.28

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.28

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMMA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.30
  39.47
  36.02
  32.92
  30.13
  27.62
  25.35
  23.32
  21.49
  19.84
  18.35
  17.02
  15.82
  14.74
  13.76
  12.89
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.17
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.06
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
Revenue, $m
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  32
  39
  48
  57
  67
  79
  91
  105
  119
  135
  151
  168
  186
  205
  225
  246
  267
  290
  313
  337
  362
  388
  416
  444
Variable operating expenses, $m
  18
  24
  33
  43
  56
  72
  89
  110
  134
  160
  188
  220
  255
  292
  333
  376
  421
  469
  519
  572
  628
  685
  745
  808
  873
  941
  1,011
  1,084
  1,160
  1,239
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  22
  28
  37
  47
  60
  77
  94
  115
  139
  165
  193
  225
  260
  297
  339
  382
  427
  475
  525
  578
  634
  691
  752
  815
  880
  948
  1,018
  1,091
  1,168
  1,247
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -108
  -126
  -146
  -169
  -193
  -219
  -247
  -276
  -307
  -339
  -373
  -409
  -446
  -485
  -525
  -567
  -611
  -656
  -703
  -752
  -802
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -71
  -85
  -101
  -119
  -138
  -159
  -182
  -206
  -232
  -260
  -289
  -320
  -352
  -385
  -420
  -456
  -494
  -534
  -575
  -617
  -662
  -708
  -755
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -92
  -109
  -127
  -148
  -171
  -195
  -221
  -249
  -279
  -310
  -343
  -377
  -413
  -451
  -490
  -531
  -573
  -617
  -663
  -711
  -760
  -812
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -92
  -109
  -127
  -148
  -171
  -195
  -221
  -249
  -279
  -310
  -343
  -377
  -413
  -451
  -490
  -531
  -573
  -617
  -663
  -711
  -760
  -812

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15
  21
  28
  37
  48
  62
  77
  95
  116
  139
  164
  192
  223
  256
  291
  328
  368
  410
  454
  500
  549
  599
  652
  706
  763
  822
  884
  948
  1,014
  1,083
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  21
  28
  37
  48
  62
  77
  95
  116
  139
  164
  192
  223
  256
  291
  328
  368
  410
  454
  500
  549
  599
  652
  706
  763
  822
  884
  948
  1,014
  1,083
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.400
  0.381
  0.393
  0.405
  0.417
  0.403
  0.416
  0.411
  0.414
  0.410
  0.409
  0.411
  0.408
  0.410
  0.409
  0.412
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.411
  0.410
  0.411
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.409
  0.410
  0.410
Average production assets, $m
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  66
  79
  92
  107
  122
  139
  157
  176
  196
  217
  239
  262
  287
  312
  338
  365
  393
  423
  453
  485
  518
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -111
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
Total liabilities, $m
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  48
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  136
  147
  157
  168
  180
Total equity, $m
  12
  17
  23
  31
  40
  51
  65
  80
  97
  116
  137
  160
  186
  213
  243
  274
  307
  342
  379
  417
  457
  500
  543
  589
  636
  686
  737
  790
  846
  903
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14
  20
  28
  37
  48
  61
  78
  96
  116
  139
  164
  192
  223
  255
  291
  329
  368
  410
  454
  500
  548
  599
  651
  706
  763
  822
  884
  947
  1,014
  1,083
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -92
  -109
  -127
  -148
  -171
  -195
  -221
  -249
  -279
  -310
  -343
  -377
  -413
  -451
  -490
  -531
  -573
  -617
  -663
  -711
  -760
  -812
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -38
  -48
  -59
  -71
  -86
  -102
  -120
  -139
  -161
  -184
  -209
  -235
  -263
  -292
  -323
  -356
  -389
  -425
  -462
  -500
  -540
  -582
  -625
  -669
  -716
  -764
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -84
  -100
  -117
  -137
  -158
  -181
  -205
  -231
  -259
  -288
  -319
  -351
  -385
  -420
  -456
  -495
  -534
  -575
  -618
  -663
  -709
  -757
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
Free cash flow, $m
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -35
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -98
  -116
  -135
  -157
  -181
  -206
  -233
  -262
  -292
  -324
  -358
  -393
  -429
  -468
  -508
  -549
  -592
  -637
  -684
  -732
  -782
  -834
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  25
  32
  40
  50
  62
  76
  91
  109
  128
  148
  171
  196
  222
  251
  280
  312
  345
  380
  416
  454
  493
  534
  576
  621
  667
  714
  764
  815
  869
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  26
  33
  42
  52
  64
  79
  94
  112
  132
  152
  176
  201
  227
  257
  286
  319
  352
  387
  424
  462
  501
  543
  585
  630
  677
  724
  775
  826
  880
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -25
  -32
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -109
  -128
  -148
  -171
  -196
  -222
  -251
  -280
  -312
  -345
  -380
  -416
  -454
  -493
  -534
  -576
  -621
  -667
  -714
  -764
  -815
  -869
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -42
  -52
  -65
  -78
  -94
  -112
  -131
  -152
  -176
  -200
  -227
  -255
  -285
  -317
  -350
  -385
  -421
  -459
  -499
  -540
  -583
  -627
  -673
  -721
  -771
  -823
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -67
  -67
  -65
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -49
  -44
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  22.2
  5.7
  1.5
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Alliance MMA, Inc. is a mixed martial arts organization offering the premier developmental league for mixed martial arts (MMA) fighters to advance to the sport's highest level of professional competition. The Company was formed to acquire the businesses of the Target Companies and the media libraries of two prominent mixed martial arts, or MMA, promotions. By combining the Target Companies, it intends to create a developmental league for professional MMA fighters and a feeder.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance MMA (AMMA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.6
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -57.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Return On Total Capital -57.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Return On Equity -57.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -500%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166.7%
Operating Margin -500%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -500%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166.7%
Net Profit Margin -400%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -133.3%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMMA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMMA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4.217704 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance MMA. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Alliance MMA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMMA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMMA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance MMA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance MMA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMMA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 300%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMMA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Alliance MMA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance MMA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMMA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMMA are equal to 116.7%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance MMA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMMA is equal to -25%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8.134479 million for Alliance MMA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.863 million for Alliance MMA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance MMA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 'Godfather' of mixed martial arts to film reality show in Memphis   [May-15-18 02:48PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SuckerPunch Athlete Max Holloway To Headline UFC 223   [Apr-02-18 12:55PM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Settles Class Action Litigation   [Mar-13-18 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ira Rainess Named President of Alliance MMA   [Feb-15-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Appoints Acting Chief Executive Officer   [Feb-07-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ SuckerPunch Athletes Showcased on FS1 and Paramount Network   [Jan-19-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Signs Event Rights Fee Deal With FloSports   [Jan-17-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Fighters Victorious in Multiple Weekend Bouts   [Dec-05-17 08:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ SuckerPunch Entertainment Sustains Extraordinary Success   [Nov-15-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Reports Third Quarter Results   [Nov-14-17 05:40PM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA To Host Seven Events in November   [Nov-03-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Acquires Victory Fighting Championship   [Sep-28-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA to Host a Record Eight Events in September   [Sep-07-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA to Host Seven Events in August   [Aug-04-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Promoting Record Six Events in July   [Jun-29-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA Fighters Undefeated in a Six Bout Weekend   [Jun-27-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA acquires Southern California fight promoter   [Jun-15-17 05:06PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SuckerPunch Entertainment Sends Trio to Battle in Rio!   [Jun-01-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Alliance MMA CEO Featured on Uptick Newswire   [09:01AM  Business Wire]

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