Intrinsic value of Allied Motion Technologies - AMOT

Previous Close

$46.94

  Intrinsic Value

$41.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-12%

Previous close

$46.94

 
Intrinsic value

$41.23

 
Up/down potential

-12%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.60
  29.84
  27.36
  25.12
  23.11
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
Revenue, $m
  334
  434
  553
  691
  851
  1,032
  1,235
  1,460
  1,707
  1,975
  2,264
  2,573
  2,902
  3,251
  3,618
  4,005
  4,410
  4,833
  5,275
  5,736
  6,215
  6,714
  7,232
  7,770
  8,330
  8,911
  9,516
  10,144
  10,798
  11,478
Variable operating expenses, $m
  307
  397
  504
  629
  773
  936
  1,119
  1,321
  1,543
  1,785
  2,038
  2,317
  2,613
  2,927
  3,259
  3,607
  3,971
  4,353
  4,751
  5,165
  5,597
  6,046
  6,513
  6,997
  7,501
  8,025
  8,569
  9,135
  9,724
  10,337
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  307
  397
  504
  629
  773
  936
  1,119
  1,321
  1,543
  1,785
  2,038
  2,317
  2,613
  2,927
  3,259
  3,607
  3,971
  4,353
  4,751
  5,165
  5,597
  6,046
  6,513
  6,997
  7,501
  8,025
  8,569
  9,135
  9,724
  10,337
Operating income, $m
  27
  37
  49
  63
  78
  97
  117
  139
  164
  190
  225
  256
  289
  323
  360
  398
  439
  481
  525
  570
  618
  668
  719
  773
  828
  886
  946
  1,009
  1,074
  1,141
EBITDA, $m
  43
  55
  71
  88
  109
  132
  158
  186
  218
  252
  289
  328
  370
  415
  462
  511
  563
  617
  673
  732
  793
  857
  923
  991
  1,063
  1,137
  1,214
  1,294
  1,378
  1,464
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  84
  92
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  189
  202
  216
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  32
  42
  53
  66
  81
  97
  115
  135
  156
  185
  210
  236
  263
  292
  323
  355
  388
  423
  459
  497
  536
  577
  619
  664
  709
  757
  806
  858
  911
Tax expense, $m
  7
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  167
  179
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
Net income, $m
  18
  24
  31
  39
  48
  59
  71
  84
  98
  114
  135
  153
  172
  192
  213
  236
  259
  283
  309
  335
  363
  391
  421
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  626
  665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  249
  324
  412
  516
  635
  770
  921
  1,089
  1,273
  1,473
  1,688
  1,919
  2,164
  2,424
  2,698
  2,987
  3,289
  3,604
  3,934
  4,277
  4,635
  5,006
  5,393
  5,794
  6,212
  6,645
  7,096
  7,565
  8,052
  8,559
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  249
  324
  412
  516
  635
  770
  921
  1,089
  1,273
  1,473
  1,688
  1,919
  2,164
  2,424
  2,698
  2,987
  3,289
  3,604
  3,934
  4,277
  4,635
  5,006
  5,393
  5,794
  6,212
  6,645
  7,096
  7,565
  8,052
  8,559
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.341
  1.340
  1.342
  1.339
  1.340
  1.340
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
Average production assets, $m
  91
  118
  151
  189
  232
  282
  337
  399
  466
  539
  618
  702
  792
  887
  988
  1,093
  1,204
  1,320
  1,440
  1,566
  1,697
  1,833
  1,974
  2,121
  2,274
  2,433
  2,598
  2,769
  2,948
  3,134
Working capital, $m
  51
  66
  84
  105
  129
  157
  188
  222
  259
  300
  344
  391
  441
  494
  550
  609
  670
  735
  802
  872
  945
  1,020
  1,099
  1,181
  1,266
  1,355
  1,446
  1,542
  1,641
  1,745
Total debt, $m
  86
  126
  173
  228
  292
  364
  445
  535
  634
  740
  856
  979
  1,110
  1,249
  1,396
  1,550
  1,712
  1,881
  2,057
  2,241
  2,432
  2,631
  2,838
  3,053
  3,276
  3,508
  3,749
  4,000
  4,260
  4,532
Total liabilities, $m
  133
  173
  220
  276
  340
  412
  493
  583
  681
  788
  903
  1,026
  1,158
  1,297
  1,444
  1,598
  1,759
  1,928
  2,105
  2,288
  2,480
  2,678
  2,885
  3,100
  3,323
  3,555
  3,796
  4,047
  4,308
  4,579
Total equity, $m
  116
  150
  192
  240
  295
  358
  428
  506
  592
  685
  785
  892
  1,006
  1,127
  1,255
  1,389
  1,529
  1,676
  1,829
  1,989
  2,155
  2,328
  2,508
  2,694
  2,888
  3,090
  3,300
  3,518
  3,744
  3,980
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  249
  323
  412
  516
  635
  770
  921
  1,089
  1,273
  1,473
  1,688
  1,918
  2,164
  2,424
  2,699
  2,987
  3,288
  3,604
  3,934
  4,277
  4,635
  5,006
  5,393
  5,794
  6,211
  6,645
  7,096
  7,565
  8,052
  8,559
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.740
  0.840
  0.900
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465
  0.465

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  24
  31
  39
  48
  59
  71
  84
  98
  114
  135
  153
  172
  192
  213
  236
  259
  283
  309
  335
  363
  391
  421
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  626
  665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  41
  47
  54
  62
  64
  72
  82
  91
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  219
  234
  251
  268
  286
  304
  323
Funds from operations, $m
  33
  42
  52
  64
  78
  94
  112
  131
  153
  176
  199
  225
  254
  284
  315
  348
  383
  419
  457
  497
  538
  580
  625
  671
  719
  769
  820
  874
  930
  988
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
Cash from operations, $m
  21
  27
  34
  43
  54
  67
  81
  97
  115
  135
  155
  178
  204
  231
  259
  290
  322
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  546
  589
  634
  680
  728
  779
  831
  885
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -82
  -91
  -102
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -161
  -175
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -234
  -251
  -268
  -286
  -304
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -186
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -84
  -96
  -108
  -121
  -135
  -148
  -162
  -177
  -191
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -257
  -274
  -292
  -311
  -330
  -351
  -372
  -393
  -416
  -440
  -464
  -490
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -4
  1
  7
  14
  21
  30
  41
  54
  67
  82
  98
  115
  133
  153
  173
  194
  216
  239
  262
  287
  313
  339
  367
  395
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  72
  81
  90
  98
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  154
  162
  169
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  271
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  11
  10
  9
  7
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  44
  51
  57
  64
  71
  76
  81
  90
  98
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  154
  162
  169
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  271
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  91
  105
  121
  136
  154
  173
  193
  214
  237
  260
  284
  310
  336
  364
  393
  422
  453
  486
  519
  554
  590
  628
  667
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  13
  20
  28
  36
  46
  59
  72
  87
  102
  119
  137
  157
  177
  198
  220
  243
  267
  292
  317
  344
  372
  401
  431
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  8
  11
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  25
  26
  26
  25
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.6
  95.8
  94.5
  93.7
  93.1
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9
  92.9

Allied Motion Technologies Inc. designs, manufactures and sells precision and specialty motion control components and systems used in a range of industries. The Company serves various markets, including vehicle, medical, aerospace and defense, electronics and industrial. It focuses on motion control applications. It is engaged in developing electro-magnetic, mechanical and electronic motion technology. It operates in the design and manufacture of motion control products, marketed to original equipment manufacturers and end users segment. Its products are used in the handling, inspection, and testing of components and final products, such as printers, tunable lasers and spectrum analyzers for the fiber optic industry, and test and processing equipment for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Its products are used in a range of medical, industrial and commercial aviation applications, such as dialysis equipment, industrial ink jet printers and cash dispensers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allied Motion Technologies (AMOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.9
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 97.2%
Total Debt to Equity 98.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Equity 13.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
EBITDA Margin 11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Payout Ratio 11.1%

AMOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $252.012 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allied Motion Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Allied Motion Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allied Motion Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allied Motion Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Allied Motion Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allied Motion Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMOT are equal to 27.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allied Motion Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMOT is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $87.347 million for Allied Motion Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.475 million for Allied Motion Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allied Motion Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Allied Motion: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-31-18 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Allied Motion Appoints Linda P. Duch to Board of Directors   [Sep-24-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Buy Allied Motion Technologies as Defense Spending Soars   [Aug-20-18 01:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 11th   [Jun-11-18 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 5th   [Jun-05-18 07:54AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 4th   [Jun-04-18 07:43AM  Zacks]
▶ Allied Motion: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Allied Motion posts 4Q profit   [Mar-14-18 06:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Allied Motion Technologies Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 09:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Allied Motion posts 3Q profit   [05:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Allied Motion to Present at Midwest IDEAS Conference   [Aug-16-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Allied Motion posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 10:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Timothy T. Tevens Joins Allied Motion Board of Directors   [Jun-01-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Allied Motion posts 1Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 12th   [Apr-12-17 10:43AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 29th   [Mar-29-17 09:57AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 29th   [09:57AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Allied Motion posts 4Q profit   [Mar-13-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Allied Motion Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-01-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]

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