Intrinsic value of Amarin Corporation plc - AMRN

Previous Close

$19.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$19.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.12

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.60
  39.74
  36.27
  33.14
  30.33
  27.79
  25.51
  23.46
  21.62
  19.95
  18.46
  17.11
  15.90
  14.81
  13.83
  12.95
  12.15
  11.44
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
Revenue, $m
  329
  460
  626
  834
  1,087
  1,388
  1,743
  2,152
  2,617
  3,139
  3,718
  4,355
  5,047
  5,795
  6,596
  7,450
  8,355
  9,311
  10,316
  11,370
  12,472
  13,622
  14,821
  16,069
  17,367
  18,717
  20,120
  21,577
  23,092
  24,666
Variable operating expenses, $m
  412
  576
  785
  1,045
  1,361
  1,740
  2,184
  2,696
  3,279
  3,933
  4,659
  5,456
  6,324
  7,261
  8,265
  9,335
  10,469
  11,667
  12,926
  14,246
  15,627
  17,069
  18,571
  20,135
  21,761
  23,452
  25,210
  27,036
  28,934
  30,907
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  412
  576
  785
  1,045
  1,361
  1,740
  2,184
  2,696
  3,279
  3,933
  4,659
  5,456
  6,324
  7,261
  8,265
  9,335
  10,469
  11,667
  12,926
  14,246
  15,627
  17,069
  18,571
  20,135
  21,761
  23,452
  25,210
  27,036
  28,934
  30,907
Operating income, $m
  -83
  -116
  -158
  -211
  -275
  -351
  -441
  -544
  -662
  -794
  -941
  -1,102
  -1,277
  -1,466
  -1,669
  -1,885
  -2,114
  -2,356
  -2,610
  -2,877
  -3,155
  -3,446
  -3,750
  -4,065
  -4,394
  -4,735
  -5,090
  -5,459
  -5,842
  -6,241
EBITDA, $m
  -83
  -116
  -158
  -210
  -273
  -349
  -438
  -541
  -658
  -790
  -935
  -1,095
  -1,270
  -1,458
  -1,659
  -1,874
  -2,102
  -2,342
  -2,595
  -2,860
  -3,137
  -3,427
  -3,728
  -4,042
  -4,369
  -4,708
  -5,061
  -5,428
  -5,809
  -6,205
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  7
  15
  24
  37
  53
  72
  95
  121
  152
  188
  227
  271
  319
  371
  428
  489
  553
  622
  694
  770
  850
  933
  1,020
  1,111
  1,205
  1,303
  1,405
  1,511
  1,622
  1,736
Earnings before tax, $m
  -90
  -131
  -183
  -248
  -328
  -423
  -536
  -666
  -814
  -982
  -1,168
  -1,373
  -1,596
  -1,837
  -2,097
  -2,373
  -2,667
  -2,977
  -3,304
  -3,646
  -4,005
  -4,379
  -4,770
  -5,176
  -5,599
  -6,039
  -6,496
  -6,970
  -7,464
  -7,977
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -90
  -131
  -183
  -248
  -328
  -423
  -536
  -666
  -814
  -982
  -1,168
  -1,373
  -1,596
  -1,837
  -2,097
  -2,373
  -2,667
  -2,977
  -3,304
  -3,646
  -4,005
  -4,379
  -4,770
  -5,176
  -5,599
  -6,039
  -6,496
  -6,970
  -7,464
  -7,977

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  370
  517
  705
  939
  1,224
  1,564
  1,963
  2,423
  2,947
  3,535
  4,187
  4,904
  5,684
  6,525
  7,428
  8,390
  9,409
  10,485
  11,617
  12,804
  14,045
  15,340
  16,690
  18,096
  19,558
  21,078
  22,657
  24,299
  26,004
  27,777
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  370
  517
  705
  939
  1,224
  1,564
  1,963
  2,423
  2,947
  3,535
  4,187
  4,904
  5,684
  6,525
  7,428
  8,390
  9,409
  10,485
  11,617
  12,804
  14,045
  15,340
  16,690
  18,096
  19,558
  21,078
  22,657
  24,299
  26,004
  27,777
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.889
  0.890
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.887
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
Average production assets, $m
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  99
  112
  127
  142
  158
  175
  193
  212
  232
  252
  273
  295
  318
  342
  367
  393
  419
Working capital, $m
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  33
  41
  50
  60
  71
  83
  96
  110
  125
  142
  159
  177
  196
  216
  237
  259
  282
  305
  330
  356
  382
  410
  439
  469
Total debt, $m
  167
  281
  426
  606
  826
  1,088
  1,396
  1,752
  2,156
  2,610
  3,114
  3,667
  4,269
  4,919
  5,616
  6,358
  7,145
  7,976
  8,850
  9,766
  10,724
  11,724
  12,766
  13,851
  14,980
  16,153
  17,373
  18,640
  19,957
  21,325
Total liabilities, $m
  286
  399
  544
  725
  945
  1,207
  1,515
  1,871
  2,275
  2,729
  3,233
  3,786
  4,388
  5,038
  5,734
  6,477
  7,264
  8,095
  8,968
  9,884
  10,843
  11,843
  12,885
  13,970
  15,099
  16,272
  17,491
  18,759
  20,075
  21,444
Total equity, $m
  84
  118
  161
  214
  279
  357
  447
  552
  672
  806
  955
  1,118
  1,296
  1,488
  1,694
  1,913
  2,145
  2,391
  2,649
  2,919
  3,202
  3,498
  3,805
  4,126
  4,459
  4,806
  5,166
  5,540
  5,929
  6,333
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  370
  517
  705
  939
  1,224
  1,564
  1,962
  2,423
  2,947
  3,535
  4,188
  4,904
  5,684
  6,526
  7,428
  8,390
  9,409
  10,486
  11,617
  12,803
  14,045
  15,341
  16,690
  18,096
  19,558
  21,078
  22,657
  24,299
  26,004
  27,777
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.980
  2.380
  2.650
  2.830
  2.960
  3.050
  3.120
  3.170
  3.210
  3.240
  3.260
  3.280
  3.290
  3.310
  3.320
  3.320
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.370
  3.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -90
  -131
  -183
  -248
  -328
  -423
  -536
  -666
  -814
  -982
  -1,168
  -1,373
  -1,596
  -1,837
  -2,097
  -2,373
  -2,667
  -2,977
  -3,304
  -3,646
  -4,005
  -4,379
  -4,770
  -5,176
  -5,599
  -6,039
  -6,496
  -6,970
  -7,464
  -7,977
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  -90
  -130
  -182
  -247
  -326
  -421
  -533
  -663
  -811
  -977
  -1,162
  -1,366
  -1,589
  -1,829
  -2,087
  -2,363
  -2,655
  -2,964
  -3,289
  -3,630
  -3,987
  -4,360
  -4,748
  -5,153
  -5,574
  -6,011
  -6,466
  -6,939
  -7,430
  -7,941
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  -92
  -133
  -185
  -251
  -331
  -427
  -540
  -670
  -819
  -987
  -1,173
  -1,378
  -1,602
  -1,843
  -2,102
  -2,379
  -2,672
  -2,982
  -3,308
  -3,650
  -4,008
  -4,381
  -4,771
  -5,177
  -5,598
  -6,037
  -6,493
  -6,967
  -7,459
  -7,971
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
Free cash flow, $m
  -94
  -135
  -189
  -255
  -336
  -434
  -548
  -680
  -830
  -1,000
  -1,188
  -1,395
  -1,620
  -1,863
  -2,124
  -2,403
  -2,698
  -3,010
  -3,339
  -3,683
  -4,043
  -4,419
  -4,811
  -5,219
  -5,644
  -6,085
  -6,544
  -7,021
  -7,516
  -8,031
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  87
  114
  145
  180
  220
  263
  308
  355
  404
  454
  504
  553
  602
  650
  697
  742
  787
  831
  874
  916
  958
  1,000
  1,042
  1,085
  1,129
  1,173
  1,219
  1,267
  1,317
  1,369
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  116
  164
  226
  301
  393
  501
  627
  771
  934
  1,116
  1,317
  1,536
  1,774
  2,029
  2,302
  2,593
  2,900
  3,223
  3,562
  3,917
  4,288
  4,675
  5,078
  5,497
  5,932
  6,385
  6,856
  7,345
  7,853
  8,381
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  203
  278
  371
  481
  613
  764
  935
  1,126
  1,338
  1,570
  1,821
  2,089
  2,376
  2,679
  2,999
  3,335
  3,687
  4,054
  4,436
  4,833
  5,246
  5,675
  6,120
  6,582
  7,061
  7,558
  8,075
  8,612
  9,170
  9,750
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  143
  182
  227
  276
  330
  387
  446
  508
  570
  632
  695
  756
  816
  875
  932
  988
  1,043
  1,097
  1,150
  1,203
  1,256
  1,309
  1,362
  1,417
  1,473
  1,531
  1,591
  1,653
  1,719
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -116
  -164
  -226
  -301
  -393
  -501
  -627
  -771
  -934
  -1,116
  -1,317
  -1,536
  -1,774
  -2,029
  -2,302
  -2,593
  -2,900
  -3,223
  -3,562
  -3,917
  -4,288
  -4,675
  -5,078
  -5,497
  -5,932
  -6,385
  -6,856
  -7,345
  -7,853
  -8,381
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  87
  -22
  -44
  -75
  -117
  -171
  -240
  -324
  -426
  -546
  -684
  -841
  -1,018
  -1,213
  -1,428
  -1,660
  -1,911
  -2,180
  -2,465
  -2,767
  -3,085
  -3,419
  -3,769
  -4,134
  -4,515
  -4,912
  -5,325
  -5,754
  -6,199
  -6,662
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  83
  -20
  -38
  -62
  -90
  -124
  -162
  -203
  -245
  -286
  -325
  -359
  -387
  -407
  -419
  -422
  -416
  -401
  -380
  -352
  -319
  -284
  -247
  -211
  -176
  -143
  -114
  -89
  -68
  -50
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.6
  70.0
  58.7
  49.5
  41.8
  35.4
  30.1
  25.7
  22.0
  18.9
  16.2
  14.0
  12.1
  10.4
  9.0
  7.8
  6.8
  5.9
  5.1
  4.5
  3.9
  3.4
  3.0
  2.6
  2.3
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.3
  1.2

Amarin Corporation plc is a biopharmaceutical company with operations in lipid science focused on the commercialization and development of therapeutics for cardiovascular health. The Company operates through the development and commercialization of Vascepa segment. The Company's lead product, Vascepa (icosapent ethyl) capsule, is approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use as an adjunct to diet to reduce triglyceride levels in adult patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. This indication for Vascepa, known as the MARINE indication, is based primarily on the results from the MARINE study of Vascepa in this approved patient population. The Company sells Vascepa principally to wholesalers, as well as selected regional wholesalers and specialty pharmacy providers, or collectively, its distributors, which in turn resell Vascepa to retail pharmacies for resale to patients and healthcare providers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -60.4
Price to Sales 40
Price to Book -577.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -72.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -72.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 58.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -944.4%
Total Debt to Equity -1288.9%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -39.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.3%
Return On Total Capital -74.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.4%
Return On Equity 125.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 107.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.6%
EBITDA Margin -44.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.8%
Operating Margin -50.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -92.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -58.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.9%
Net Profit Margin -66.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.4%
Effective Tax Rate -13.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $229 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amarin Corporation plc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Amarin Corporation plc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amarin Corporation plc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amarin Corporation plc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 125.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Amarin Corporation plc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amarin Corporation plc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMRN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMRN are equal to 1.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amarin Corporation plc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMRN is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $152.33 million for Amarin Corporation plc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 329.562 million for Amarin Corporation plc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amarin Corporation plc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.

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